Going Commando

The best defenses don't play any of their IDLs more than 60-65% of their snaps. I don't think we've ever really appreciated how crazy and detrimental it was that we played Daron 900+ snaps some years, and that he sits at over 800 snaps on average. And Allen hasn't been that far off from that, which is worse because we know he has chronic shoulder issues. Aaron Donald was basically the only IDL in the NFL that can handle that workload and remain effective, and he retired super young for a GOAT tier DT. The best defenses have their top IDLs play 600 to low 700 snaps per season, and that needs to be the pitch count for Allen and Payne. That means there will easily be 500+ snaps available for Newton if he is healthy and earns the IDL3 job. And that's assuming we don't play any of them at edge or run 3 IDL packages. Great defenses almost all play a four man rotation at IDL, with three players getting 400-700 snaps. We have been ruining Allen and Payne by playing them too much ever since Ioannidis went down in 2020. If we get 500 snaps from Newton next year, and 200+ from either Ridgeway or Mathis, then that'd put Allen and Payne at upper 600s or very low 700s at most, and I promise you will see a drastic improvement in the performance of both the DL and the defense as a whole. ~670 is the sweet spot for them, and if we can hit that from a full season, then the best years of their careers are ahead.

I'm not sure that is true. I'm looking at the snap counts of the best linebackers in the NFL and Jamin's snap count last season would have been the same as Fred Warner's average season. He played 57 per game, which puts him at 970 for the year if he didn't get hurt and go on IR. I don't think there is anything wrong with rotating linebackers off the field and limiting their snap counts. Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah made the Probowl last season as the best linebacker on the best defense while only playing 47 snaps per game.

Good coaches adapt scheme to player, and I don't think they're going to leave Forbes in island single coverages in press. If they wanted to play a lot of that, they wouldn't have drafted Sainristil either. Sainristil is a pretty similar player to Forbes in skill set. That suggests to me that guys like Forbes are in the plans. Forbes has some trouble getting off run blocks, but he's actually a hard hitter. He got thrown out of the Seahawks game last season for hitting Tyler Lockett too hard. It was a bang bang play that ended up being helmet to helmet because Lockett fell as he tried to complete the catch and his head unexpectedly dropped, but it showed that Forbes is physical at the catch point. His first real highlight play was also blowing up a screen or swing pass in the first preseason game, which is a trait that pops from his college cut ups. He closes hard when he reads these flat throws fast. Davis is the only traditional press man DB they added to the roster this off-season. I think they're going to play most of the secondary in off coverages, press and reroute the few big match ups to slow down timing, and try and generate a lot of turnovers off of zone match and zone, and I think those will be paired really well with creative pressure schemes. We've finally got the linebackers to diversify our coverages and pressures, and still play the run well even if we get super aggressive with our IDLs.

Well, for the purposes of this, let's assume the Eagles still make the trade up for someone else.

2 - Drake Maye 36 - Cooper DeJean 50 - Cooper Beebe 53 - Kingsley Suamataia 67 - Blake Corum 100 - Troy Franklin 139 - Sedrick Van Pran Granger 161 - Johnny Wilson 222 - Myles Cole That's rigidly going off my board without considering overloading on positions. I might have picked Austin Booker over SVPG at 139 because of already having Biadasz and the better position value of Edge. But if I stay true to my board, SVPG was the BPA here for me.

I had Sainristil and Sinnott as negligible reaches on my overall slotting. Where I think there could be some regret is that I had Beebe and Suamataia a fair bit higher than them on my board, and if they hit, then Sainristil and Sinnott need to hit bigger to feel like great value. Sainristil was pretty risky. I think there is an outcome where he quickly and significantly outplays his draft slot like Terry McClaurin did. And I think there is an equally likely outcome where he doesn't really work out because of his size. IMO Sinnott has a high floor and will probably end up being a good starter, and if he busts, it'll probably be due to injury. I think Coleman was a pretty sizable reach at 67, and that's the Day 2 pick I don't have a ton of confidence in. I think we all see McCaffrey as a reach, but his film, his Senior Bowl week, and his pedigree are good enough to look at him as having the potential to justify his draft range. As for Day 3, Magee is the guy I'm not sold on. I know our FO has a reputation for excelling at drafting LBers, I just couldn't find enough cut ups to form a strong take on him, and what I did see was not very impressive. In the end, who is really going to care if he doesn't hit though. This class is 100% going to be defined by Jayden Daniels. If he hits, then we'll be competitive at the highest level of the NFL. If he busts, then we'll be going through turmoil again in a few seasons.

Seeing the way Deion and Shedeur Sanders behave on social media, I'm so glad we're not in the market for a 2025 QB.

Five picks in the top 67 should net 4-5 starters. We had to trade three starters to get this ammo.

There aren't many stud tackles period, but there are many more on the list of the current best tackles in the NFL with 33" arms than 36" arms. It's overrated as a determinant of success. Penei Sewell was the top graded OT in the NFL according to PFF, and he has 33 1/4" arms. Braden Smith was the sixth highest graded OT, and his arm length is 32 1/4". Bernhard Raimann was the eighth highest graded OT and his was 32 7/8. Taylor Decker was ninth, and his arm length is 33 3/4. Rob Havenstein has the same arm length and he was 14th in the NFL. Zach Thom was 15th and his arm length is 33 1/4". Slater was 17th and has already been discussed, but his arms are 33" flat. Kaleb McGary's arms are 32 7/8 and he was tied for 20th. That's eight of the top 20 OTs in the league last season with less than 34" arms. Arm length isn't going to hold Cosmi back from playing tackle. He got moved inside because we lost Scherff and signed Wylie. He played RT as a rookie and was good. He only struggled at RT in year two because he played most of the season hurt and got moved back and forth on a line that had to constantly shuffle personnel due to injury. Good linemen are good linemen, and he has spent more of his career at tackle than guard. If we didn't have Wylie, he'd probably be playing tackle still. And if Wylie gets hurt, there is a good chance he'll have to kick back outside to tackle unless Coleman is ready to play as a rookie.

There's not a good, objective way to grade our classes. Just going on numerical value minus reach scores doesn't work, because a reach at the end of the draft shouldn't matter in comparison to reaches at the beginning. Should there be some consideration about accurately drafting compared to our teams' real draft class? What if we are accurate with our picks in that regard, but our team makes bad picks? We have at least three objectives here, and they can contradict each other: 1 - to pick good players 2 - to pick the players that our teams realistically would 3 - to pick players after they are actually drafted in the real draft So in assessing my own class, Jarrian Jones at 96 feels like my best pick because that's what actually happened on draft day. But that also means a +0 value, and it's also not going to be an impressive pick in the ultimate consideration of the class if he ends up being a scrub. Then let's say you pick a player 50 picks early in the second round, and it looks like you committed a -50 reach and that it was one of your worst picks. But that player ends up being an All Pro, and in reality, you've outpicked both the NFL and your real team. Finally, let's say that I picked Michael Penix as the Jacksonville Jaguars this year, and he ends up being a star IRL. That pick would have been a value pick where I chose a star QB, so it seems like it should be considered a home run. Except that Michael Penix is a completely unrealistic pick for Jacksonville, and the reality is he would probably be the third stringer there. So how do we assess that?

Building an NFL team is like building a tower, not a house. The competition isn't over who can build the most complete house, it's over who can build the tallest tower. The players are all building blocks of the same shape and basic function, but where they differ is in size. The best players are the biggest blocks. If every team is restricted to building with 53 blocks, then the ones who get the most big blocks are the ones that will win. Need-drafting stems from looking at the problem of building a team with constricted resources wrong. It's misunderstanding the true competition in the sport, and the end result is a team that doesn't have enough talent to compete.

Probably. I get the logic to try and work around your first round pick, but the obvious solution is to play Guyton at RT, Smith at LT, and bench Steele because he sucks.

He makes plays against man coverage too. I think he kind of has a reputation for being a zone beater, but his man grades are better than his zone. He's got good strength and toughness and he's a no frills route runner who efficiently creates separation early in the concept.

I hope we're lucky too. I wanted Maye and still wish we had picked him, but I'm very glad that we picked Jayden instead of McCarthy #2. It's a super negative hypothetical for me that I don't want to unnecessarily ponder. We got a QB that has legit big play capability, and I don't have to worry about a scenario where that wouldn't have been the case. I think franchise QBs are more made than found, and that's why I'm still optimistic about this build. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, even Patrick Mahomes were all made into franchise QBs by the situations they got drafted into. None had the kind of can't-miss pre-cast greatness of a Lawrence, Luck, or Burrow where they were almost immune to situational instability (although the Bengals found a gem in Zac Taylor). They got forged by their teams. Excellent stability, excellent coaching, excellent culture, excellent supporting talent, and a sincere commitment to their development--all of that was necessary for them to be successful, and all of them would have been busts if they had they ended up in a place like DC during the time they came into the league. Our hope is that the conditions here for developing a franchise QB are right this time. Harris, Peters, and Quinn are all on the same timeline of the build, all on the same page about Jayden, and Peters and Quinn are 100% married to him. They're going to do everything they can to make sure he works out. If he doesn't, then it'll probably be due to injuries that are beyond our control at this point. Health provided, I think it's going to work too. They made building a championship caliber defense a huge priority, and I think they are going to pull it off. An elite defense is a big part of a QB development cradle, because it gives them the ability to make mistakes and go through growing pains. Most prospects are not like a Matt Stafford or Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, where they can come in and be almost immediately competitive while running an expansive passing game and carrying the burden of their team's competitiveness on their shoulders. Most QBs need a training wheels offense and the opportunity to get the ball back when drives stall or the ball gets turned over. And all QBs suffer in development from playing uncompetitive football. Being able to still compete at the highest level of the sport while running a limited passing offense is how guys like Roethlisberger, Brady, and Wilson got the very, very long runway to grow into future HoFers. We still have a lot of work to do, but I think the foundation of our defense is outstanding.

The team that picked JJ McCarthy didn't even have JJ McCarthy over Drake Maye. I find it hard to believe that we did.

That actually makes me feel worse about the competency of our FO, if true.

He has the exact same arm length and wingspan as All Pro tackle Rashawn Slater. His arms are actually longer than Morgan's. He was a better prospect than Morgan, especially considering Morgan tore his ACL. Sometimes there isn't a rhyme or reason for why guys with a first round profile end up on day 2. Cosmi is one of those cases. So is JerZhan Newton.

I understand the hedge on Kirk. He's going to be 36 years old and making a comeback from a career killer injury. What I don't really understand is why he was such a high demand FA in the first place. What about his situation seemed to justify 40 and 50 million dollar cap hits? Everyone was acting like he was coming off the 2022 season instead of 2023, and nobody questioned his deal at the time. After the Penix pick, it's clear that Atlanta very much questions his ability to come back. So why did they give him the deal in the first place? They were always going to be in position to draft Michael Penix Jr. It smacks of wasteful desperation stemming from an uncertain ownership situation. It seems like they had a mandate from Arthur Blank to go all in for a SB because he's 81 and has had prostate cancer before.

My seventh rounders went undrafted. Other than that, I was accurate with almost all of the other picks I made: Laiatu Latu - 15 - My pick: 17 T'Vondre Sweat - 38 - My pick: 48 Jarrion Jones - 96 - My pick: 96 Mason McCormick - 119 - My pick: 114 Jacob Cowing - 135 - My pick: 116 Tykee Smith - 89 - My pick: 153 Jalen Green - Undrafted - My pick: 212 Kendall Milton - Undrafted - My pick: 236 My best pick was nailing Jarrion Jones at 96. That is unusual to pull off that deep in a draft. I had a feeling Jalen Green might go undrafted because of his late knee injury, but I would have still picked him in the seventh. Dude had 16 sacks in 9 games. He's still unsigned as far as I can tell, and we should bring him in for a look. I also had a feeling Kendall Milton would go undrafted when he wasn't even on some of the brand name draft boards I looked at. The Eagles scooped him up. A lot of good running backs who would have been drafted under normal circumstances went UDFA this year. The Covid season hurt their draft stock more than any other position. Cody Schrader was like a fifth round caliber back, but was probably too old to be palatable for most teams. I had a feeling he'd end up in San Francisco because he's an ideal fit for that system.

Allegretti and Stromberg would have to beat out Wylie in camp for that to happen. Allegretti is not a starter, he's a back up IOL. He's going to be 28 next season and has only played significant snaps one year in his career--2020. He was brought in for depth, and we're in trouble if he comes out of camp as the clear starter at LG. We don't currently have a starter at LG with history of playing a full season. If you move Cosmi to RT, then Wylie is almost certainly going to have to start at RG, so I wouldn't see much of a reason to flip them. Cosmi only makes sense to move if we had brought in a really high quality RG prospect, or signed a legit starter in FA. Right now the left side of our line is a big question mark. Our best options for starting at LG and LT are a mixture of prospects that we don't know are good. Braeden Daniels and Brandon Coleman will both be in the mix in camp at LT and LG, but neither have played before. Same for Stromberg, who only played a third of a game's worth of snaps, and they were at Center. Paul will be in the mix at LG, but he was terrible last season and only played 400 snaps to boot. Our line should be better with an extra year of chemistry on the right side, and nailing center was consequential. That was likely the best long term FA move we made, and we can start building a much more sustainable line if Biadasz works out. But the left side of the line is probably going to be terrible and a consistent point of failure next season. We have to hope that Coleman can play LT and that someone from Daniels/Stromberg/Paul works out.

Maybe. But I think Terry is who he is at this point in his career: a bankable 1,000 yard receiver who brings superior intangibles to the table and can fit in almost in position and scheme. That's a big piece to have, but I would be surprised if he busts out into 90 something grade territory next year, just due to having better coaching and QB play. Ideally, guys like Terry are your second best weapon, not your only good one. The book isn't written on Jahan yet... but it almost is. If we're being realistic, it's not likely that he has the kind of breakout third year that Nico Collins had. Third year breakouts are pretty rare for receivers. And if Jahan doesn't significantly improve this year and give us a ton more production, then we probably need to move on. Barring a surprise trade for someone like Deebo or Aiyuk, he's going to get the chance to break out though. We don't really have anyone else to keep him on the bench or steal targets from him.

Cosmi was a better prospect than Coleman, and a better athlete. Coleman has a better vertical, but Cosmi's broad jump was better and his 40 and agility drill times are about as elite as it gets. In 2021, Cosmi had the second best OT RAS since 1987. It's pretty crazy that we were able to get him in the second round. Jordan Morgan, Tyler Guyton, and Troy Fautanu were all much lesser prospects than Cosmi was, and they went in the first. We got lucky with Cosmi.

He gets to the outside hip. That's how you stop forward momentum when you hit someone from an angle.

QB is different, it doesn't get considered on a BPA rubric. You only ever need one QB, unless your QB is an aging legend and you need a succession plan. The reason the Falcons are getting roasted for the Penix Jr pick is because people thought they already had a plan out QB figured out, and then they cast that plan in total doubt by drafting a top ten QB. Hedging so hard on their bet on Kirk begs the question of why make the bet on Kirk in the first place? Picking all of those stud DLs was not the problem with our drafts 2017-2020. Those guys were most of the only good players we got from those classes, and they actually make a strong case for drafting BPA. We got Pro-bowlers from all of those picks. Chase was the only first round pick Ron Rivera didn't reach on, and he was the only one of the four who had any kind of impact in his time here. You want to know what the problem with those draft classes was? Look at the Day 2 and early Day 3 picks. That's what you get from reaching.

They traded down for Sainristil though. If they'd seriously been considering him at 36 and felt nervous about losing him, they would have picked him at 40. I think we played it perfectly and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the trade was announced on the TV. Admittedly, I don't love that the Eagles got DeJean from it, but a trade back from 40 into the 50s after getting a high upside faller at 36 is the exact scenario we had been hoping for in the draft thread for months. We just didn't know who the faller would be. The surprising thing for me was the compensation. I didn't expect to get a second pick in the 50s. I thought the compensation would be an extra third rounder, and hadn't considered that we could use the Sam Howell third to get up into the 50s a second time. I think Philly was the only team where that could have been an option. So let's say the compensation had instead been something like 51 and 84 (from Pittsburgh), or 50 and 83 (from Philly without the repositioning), we would have missed out on Sinnott. Those wouldn't have been terrible trades, we still could have drafted something like Sainristil + Christian Haynes/Blake Corum + Roman Wilson/Zak Zinter. Just go all out on Michigan players. But Sainristil + Sinnott feels pretty good. Most places have us committing a pretty big reach on Sinnott, but I don't agree with that. He was 58 on my board. I think Sinnott was heavily underrated by draftniks this year, and I've actually done pretty well with my TE rankings and spotting gems over the years. He was pretty firmly TE2 for me, and there was a 20 spot drop to TE3 in JaTavion Sanders, which honestly could have been way bigger since he didn't get picked until the beginning of the fourth round. IMO Tip Reiman was the big reach. So if you accept that Sinnott and Sainristil were taken at a proper range (which I do), our second round played out pretty close to ideal for us.