Going Commando

The Rams are having an epic draft. How tf are they so good at the draft, and yet they farted away all of their draft picks for about eight years in a row? Sneaky great FO. Famously great coaching staff. They've reloaded. That division is going to be a bloodbath next year.

I don't have a good feeling about Kingsbury. He and the OL coach were the two parts of our coaching search where it seemed like we got swindled. Something about Kingsbury feels very smoke and mirrors. Like his real talent is for latching on to authentic talent, doing less with more, getting fired, then landing on his feet with some other great job. He's got this knack for coaching these genius QBs, and then they have the worst period of their football careers with him. I wish we could do better for Jayden. That said, at least for once our entire FO and coaching staff is on the same page about a QB. If we have to replace Kingsbury in 2025, we can do that.

I'm not sure about that with Sainristil. He's going to be a 24 year old rookie, and he's tiny. He needs to be good immediately, because most NFL corners lose that step really soon after 25. But he's an All American and is already good.

I think we should have picked Kingsley. Give me Kingsley and one of either Sainristil or Sinnott. I like both of them, but I'd rather have taken a big swing on Kingsley. The Chiefs got a steal.

Yeah me too. Newton's good. I like Sainristil and was on his bandwagon early. I liked Sinnott and had him as the clear cut #2 TE. I even like McCaffrey despite the reach, because I got to watch his bowl game live and see the defensive attention he got. Had him circled as a Day 3 value option. I'm nervous about Coleman. He's an interesting project, and I see the foundation that they are banking on. He has fantastic flexibilty and plays so low. Good anchor power and good hands. But he's really up and down. His SB reps were either brick wall great, or he got shucked by Braswell right off the snap/tractored back into the QB by Sweat/LSU IDL. Do we know if we drafted Coleman to play OT or OG? I think there are pros and cons to both plans. He kind of has to play OT right? That left side of the line is a mess. Stromberg, please step up 🙏🙏

Man I am really not sure about Coleman at LT. I see the the length/speed/flexibility combo, but the sets are so uneven, and when he loses, it's pretty bad. I don't love him as Plan A at tackle when we don't have a real Plan B. And I don't love coming out of this stacked OT class with such a gamble at the position, and an OL coach that bombed at his last job in charge of his development.

Man, that feels early. But talk about having NFL bloodlines.

Jarrian Jones to the Jags. That's the pick I made as them in the ES Mock. That should be worth at least 1,000 mock draft points.

BPA candidate and solid first round talent. The guys I had over him were Suamataia, Beebe, Corum, and DeJean, but he was the next one after that, and there was no chance anyone would ever pick Beebe or Corum over him. I had him at 25th overall, so the value is +11 for where we got him. I had him in the same tier as Byron Murphy, and that Newton had a reasonable case for being IDL1. I think it's a good pick, and that IDL was being slept on as a big need. We have rotation depth at Edge, but zero quality rotation players behind Daron and Allen. Their snaps have been way too high throughout their careers, and it was going to become a major problem as they enter their late 20s.

I thought Kneeland's film was pretty unimpressive. Just boring reps, few wins, very limited explosiveness. His SB reps were better, but nothing dominant. I don't see second round pick at all with him.

We did have a need at IDL FWIW. But Newton is a BPA pick. I am always a fan of BPA picks. There was a couple month run where Newton was IDL1 and mocked in the early first round.

Oh Good Lord. I should have known better than to trust these tweets. I can't keep track of which ones are parody accounts.

He publicly requested a trade a day or two before the draft. SF said they won't trade him. But Aiyuk tossed the grenade. It's a pay me or trade me situation with him now, and they might not have the money to keep him.

Ugh, yeah I know what you mean. I wanted Maye, not Daniels. But I would much rather have Daniels than McCarthy. Set aside that McCarthy's film was utterly unimpressive and devoid of big time throws, something about the kid rubbed me the wrong way. He felt really inauthentic. A complete kiss-ass who is really performative because he knows what the grown ups want to hear. For me it was the story about how he told the other Michigan recruits that they could go elsewhere if they wanted to chase girls and party. Had a very "while you were out partying, I studied the blade" uber dork energy. He's a gamer and he fell ass-backward into another elite situation where he'll get to ride his training wheels bike to wins. But if he had ended up here, there is no way he would have panned out.

Deebo would be cheaper to trade for though. And looks like his salary the next two years isn't too bad, at 21 million and 17 million respectively. The fact that Daniels played with Aiyuk before is nice, but it's not essential. If SF doesn't put Aiyuk up for trade, then we don't really have a lot of choice. There aren't that many All Pro receivers hitting the market, and getting one would be tremendously helpful to our young QB. I wouldn't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, let's bring in a big fish and turbo-charge the offense.

Yeah he's good. I've got him 92 on my board, but I can see a case for him going earlier. I think he goes in the third round. My favorite safety is Vaki. That dude is clean. Flies around the field, but goes in for tackles under control. He's super young, and plays both sides of the ball. He's kind of the poor man's version of DeJean.

Yeah it could make sense to do that. But might not have to if the Bills draft a WR. Next pick is probably either Suamataia or McConkey, and then it's just one slot to go before our pick.

DeJean is a better player period. Kool-Aid is pretty good, but DeJean is one of the special players of the class.

Man, DeJean would be such an astonishingly good value pick at 36, that if he is there, I would take him over any available option. Even over Kingsley and Beebe. And no way I'd trade out of the pick. I am not going to get my hopes up for him though. Every year we get excited about juicy value pick fallers in the second and third round, and every year they either get picked right before our slot or we end up passing them over for the Phidarian Mathis, Ryan Anderson, or Jarvis Jenkins monster reach. Only time we have ever gotten it right was Cosmi.

To me, trading for Aiyuk is a no-brainer, depending on the asking price. But I'd be surprised about getting that kind of deal done during the draft, given how late it came onto the radar. You've got to sort out compensation and an extension before you can pull the trigger, and that'll take a while. Frankly, I don't think SF will trade him. I think they'll end up trading Deebo instead, and that's a deal that interests me too. He would need to be a lot cheaper than Aiyuk though.

They already got Quinyon though. Would they still trade so much to get another corner? If Kingsley is off the board, then I definitely explore those trade down scenarios though. Kool-Aid is good, but I'd rather have two mid seconds for freaking sure.

I'm in the camp of calling Buffalo to try and get to 33 for Kingsley Suamataia. I do not want the Patriots to grab him. 36 and mid-round change isn't too big a price to pay for the last first round caliber OT on the board. We can recoup the value by moving down from 40. If you get to ~55, that's Cooper Beebe or Blake Corum range.

It wouldn't be a reach for me. I posted my board yesterday, and this group are still available: After them, I've got: 25 - Johnny Newton 31 - Ladd McConkey 32 - Kool-Aid McKinstry All of them constitute value picks for me, but Dejean and Beebe are the biggest ones. I accept that Corum will never be the pick, I just think the league is sleeping on him. Beebe is the best IOL in the class, and I think he's a legitimately dominant player that is getting overlooked because he's a little short and wide-bodied and has no neck. Anyone who can snatch T'Vondre Sweat down has ridiculous functional strength, and he virtually never misses move blocks. It's incredible. He's just uniquely good at football, and underrating him for not being body beautiful is a classic mistake IMO. So I think we'd be getting a first round player in Beebe. DeJean is a special player too, but I really think he's going to Buffalo because he's just so conspicuously valuable at this point, and teams have had a night to sleep on him. So that leaves me hoping New England has Johnny Newton over Kingsley Suamataia on their board. If he goes there, then I think we can get Kingsley at 36 and Beebe at 40 and completely transform the long term quality of the line. It'd be like getting two first round pick OLs in the same year, pushed down by the unusual depth of the class.

To me, the analytics guys are hubristic in thinking they can use out of context metrics to fully explain and understand players and the game, and avoid doing all of the work of watching film. Those guys aren't all the same. You don't know why some of them took forever to break out, but it could have absolutely no bearing on their NFL careers. Or it could be that they are lazy and give no effort on plays where they aren't the initial read, and it will have a bearing. That's what you have to suss out via actual scouting.

DeJean is probably going to be pick #33 and Suamataia is probably going to be #34. If the Cardinals go pure BPA at 35, the. It'll be Johnny Newton. Corum and Beebe would be my BPAs, but no one has them as high as me. I think Kool-Aid will be the clear consensus BPA candidate at 36. Either him or Jackson Powers Johnson. My favorite play is to take Kool-Aid or trade back.