2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

Craig Hoffman just now (he's talked in other segments that he talks to the Redskins scouts here and there).  he thinks their Plan A might be to trade down and take a RB.  He said he talked to an NFC scout about Guice and they told him he doesn't know where all that stuff is coming from, he hears Guice is a good guy and his teammates like him.

 

Speaking of Guice, I was poking around on him, found this article

https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/lsu-derrius-guice-bo-jackson-sec-record

And in the SEC record book, that qualifies him to be the league’s new all-time leader in the category. Guice heads into the Tennessee game averaging 6.91 yards a pop on his 398 career carries.

 

“It means you’re a stud of a running back,” said LSU tight end Foster Moreau. “And he’ll be a stud of a running back for a long time to come. I’d bet on Derrius for a long time to come — if that was a legal thing I could do.”

Despite being on the verge of breaking a mark held by one of the biggest names in sports history, Guice seems to be flying under the radar this season. National conversations about the best running back in the country have revolved around Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, Stanford’s

 

Bryce Love or Notre Dame’s Josh Adams. Guice is the forgotten man.

The left knee Guice sprained at Mississippi State in Week 3 is no doubt a major factor in his absence from that discussion. He put up pedestrian numbers as he played his way through the injury, but there is no question he is back now.

Guice finally broke through with a monster 276-yard effort at Ole Miss in October. Last week against Arkansas, he made a career day for most other backs — 147 yards and 3 touchdowns — look like just another day at the office.

 

It’s gotten to the point where Moreau believes he or another blocker is likely to blame on a Guice carry under 4 yards.

“You just have to block for the guy,” Moreau said. “If Derrius isn’t getting those long runs, either they are dialing something up that we can’t handle, or we’re just beating ourselves up front.”

Guice’s ability to hit the long ball once he gets to the second level is a major factor in his gaudy yards per carry average. Since 2015, Guice is leading the SEC with 33 carries of at least 20 yards. Georgia’s Nick Chubb is the next-closest player with 28 gains of at least 20 yards in the same span.

 

Without breakout runs like his school-record 96-yard touchdown at Arkansas last season, Guice wouldn’t be able to break Jackson’s record. But it’s not just the big runs that impress Guice’s teammates and coaches.

Ed Orgeron’s favorite run from the Arkansas game last Saturday actually falls below Guice’s career average. It was his 6-yard touchdown run in the third quarter, the final 3 yards of which were spent driving two Razorbacks tacklers with him into the end zone.

“I think it sends a message of physical football,” Orgeron said. “And he’s done that several times. And when he does that, I think it uplifts the team.”

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, Darth Tater said:

Which DB was originally rated as a first rounder that will now drop to 4 or later because of injury?  Seems to be the way we roll.

Going through some prospect write-ups, here are some guys I'd keep an eye on that fit your description of either an injury, off-field concern, or down last year after early success:

 

J.C. Jackson, Maryland (2-3)

Nick Nelson, Wisconsin (2-3)

Kevin Tolliver II, LSU (3-5)

Holton Hill, Texas (3-5)

Jamar Summers, UConn (5-7)

Quenton Meeks, Stanford (5-7)

Henre Toliver, Arkansas (6-UDFA)

Trey Johnson, Villanova (6-UDFA)

Brandon Facyson, Va. Tech (6-UDFA)

Jordan Thomas, Oklahoma (7-UDFA)

Jaylen Dunlap, Illinois (7-UDFA)

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

17 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

 

 

Not sure if all the current Josh Rosen potentially dropping into the teens is real but if he's there at 13 you dance to the podium with a party hat and a fake cigar...IMO

Yeah, if Rosen is sitting there at 13 he's my selection with no hesitation.

[Going Commando]

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Those are great highlight gifs you posted but if you go back and watch all of his cutups you see a different dude IMO and a guy who gets pushed back or taken out of a play rather frequently by double teams (sure he beats them sometimes, but that's why those are in the highlights).

 

Those weren't highlights, I literally just took them from the first couple minutes of his Vandy cut ups.  That is his normal.  I'm sorry, but you and everyone else claiming he gets blown off the line and can't anchor against doubles are just wrong.  And it's not really an ambiguous situation.  His strength against the run is his most noticeable trait.  He is the best run defender in the class.

 

Alabama played a blitz-heavy scheme that was highly effective against the pass and 9 out of 10 rushes, Payne is lined up at the 1 and rushing up the middle against a double.  He might stunt once or twice a game.  He might line up at a four technique and rush against a tackle once or twice a game.  His job in the pass defense was to generate pressure up the middle and he usually did it.  Pass rushing is not the strength of his game, but he's still solid.  He's got a good bull rush and push pull.  He wins with an arm over and he's got the explosive first step.  He is a handful to single block even for a tackle.  But his #1 job in Alabama's pass defense was to command a double, clear blitzing lanes, and spring quarterbacks from the pocket for the closers in Bama's defense to clean up and it worked.  They had a dominant defense.

 

Vea's production is nothing special either, and the difference there is he got single blocked a lot more than Payne and didn't make those teams pay for doing it.  And those Pac-12 offensive lines were soft.  His film is not as good as Payne's and Alabama had a lot better passing defense than Washington did.

[Berggy9598]

Just now, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Yeah, if Rosen is sitting there at 13 he's my selection with no hesitation.

 

Dumb luck ftw!

[Going Commando]

49 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Normally mesh with a lot of your thoughts but I wouldn't touch Jackson. 

 

I guess it comes down to what you want in a corner. You want a ball hawk with outstanding instincts/ ball skills/ length, he's your man Personally, I like my corners to be able to tackle. He doesn't just not tackle. He actively shy's away from physical contact. Zone only. Way too many holes to play man. Which is a staple the next level. 

 

Hail. 

 

He's raw, but I like him.  He's got a little Josh Norman in him.  He needs to go to the right team because he'll have a pretty big learning curve, but the swagger and instincts for making plays on the ball are terrific.  I think he's tougher than you think too.  He's going to make a lot of mistakes early in his career because of the aggressive way he plays the game, but I think he could be an unpolished gem like Norman was.  Or he'll go to the wrong team and they'll give up on him too early like what happened with David Amerson.

[Koolblue13]

It's odd that people are seeing such different things about Payne. I think it's been clear all season long that he's been a first round pick all season. 

 

I think playing in the Alabama system really hurt his draft stock. He had to sacrifice for his teammates and everyone else benefited. That's another giant plus on his character. 

[Burgold]

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

[Berggy9598]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Those weren't highlights, I literally just took them from the first couple minutes of his Vandy cut ups.  That is his normal.  I'm sorry, but you and everyone else claiming he gets blown off the line and can't anchor against doubles are just wrong.  And it's not really an ambiguous situation.  His strength against the run is his most noticeable trait.  He is the best run defender in the class.

 

Alabama played a blitz-heavy scheme that was highly effective against the pass and 9 out of 10 rushes, Payne is lined up at the 1 and rushing up the middle against a double.  He might stunt once or twice a game.  He might line up at a four technique and rush against a tackle once or twice a game.  His job in the pass defense was to generate pressure up the middle and he usually did it.  Pass rushing is not the strength of his game, but he's still solid.  He's got a good bull rush and push pull.  He wins with an arm over and he's got the explosive first step.  He is a handful to single block even for a tackle.  But his #1 job in Alabama's pass defense was to command a double, clear blitzing lanes, and spring quarterbacks from the pocket for the closers in Bama's defense to clean up and it worked.  They had a dominant defense.

 

Vea's production is nothing special either, and the difference there is he got single blocked a lot more than Payne and didn't make those teams pay for doing it.  And those Pac-12 offensive lines were soft.  His film is not as good as Payne's and Alabama had a lot better passing defense than Washington did.

That still doesn't explained why he struggled to disengage against linemen that were quick enough laterally to square him up and latch on. It's also a technique issue which he can clean up but that was the reason he got taken out of plays routinely against Georgia and Clemson, not his strength. 

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

If someone is willing to spend a lot of draft capital on him I guess they would shoot higher and not hope he falls to 13 just to give that draft capital to us.

[Berggy9598]

2 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

 

Rosen. If you're out picking berries and you find gold instead you don't just throw away the gold. The fact that he can sit for a season or two (ideally) makes it even more of a no-brainer. 

[Warhead36]

I take the picks because I'm not convinced Rosen is that good. I mean if he were, he'd go in the top 5. I know people point out AARON RODGERS AARON RODGERS but other then that, look at the list of QBs who fall in the 1st round and have teams trade up for them. They usually end up sucking. See: Blaine Gabbert, Brady Quinn, Johnny Manziel, etc.

[Koolblue13]

For the love of all things good I pray we don't draft a QB high. One ****ing season with a set drama free QB situation. 

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

24 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's odd that people are seeing such different things about Payne. I think it's been clear all season long that he's been a first round pick all season. 

 

I think playing in the Alabama system really hurt his draft stock. He had to sacrifice for his teammates and everyone else benefited. That's another giant plus on his character. 

 

Stonewall first rounder. Always thought he'd be mid-late first right through. Mainly down to teams getting google eyes over Vea's traits.  But he's talent worthy of the 10-15 range IMHO. 

 

Hail. 

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

 

I was just listening to a Charles Davis podcast with Finlay.  He's hearing Rosen is unlikely to fall but the guy who might is Allen if the Browns don't take him.  the Bills though sitting there at 12 likely won't let a QB get by them -- moving parts are the Bills trading up, maybe the Dolphins trading up for a QB.

 

He thinks Vea is a stud and worthy of the 13th pick.  He likes Payne but not as much, he thinks 13 is too rich for him and you can likely get him in a trade down.  Same thing exactly for Guice.  Like most, he thinks a big run on RBs in the early 2nd round.  There is a shot Price is there at 44.

[Dexter]

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's odd that people are seeing such different things about Payne. I think it's been clear all season long that he's been a first round pick all season. 

 

I think playing in the Alabama system really hurt his draft stock. He had to sacrifice for his teammates and everyone else benefited. That's another giant plus on his character. 

I think being at Alabama has helped his stock immensely....his position coach was Karl Dunbar; long time NFL D-line coach and it certainly helped Johnathan Allen for sure.  I think Payne is a flat out stud.  I had my doubts about him but after watching the National Championship Game when they played Georgia I changed my mind.  I was also scratching my head with the Ndamukong Suh comparision but he certainly looked the part in that game.

 

He's also still very young...turns 21 on the 27th of this month.  I think his draft stock is fine.  I would be shocked if he makes it to the back half of the first round.

[wilco_holland]

27 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

 

Of all this years QBs, I think Rosen would be the worst for DC. His speak your mind and intellect will be terrible here. You are in the political center of the country, with a huge media coverage. Before we know he will make political comments that will fill the pages of local news for weeks.

 

We saw it with mr. Griffin. We just need a QB who wins games and gives boring answer. No need to create drama for the news guys. 

 

I rather have more picks then. Because I like Jay. Jay can only stay if he wins. Three talented players will help him more then the back up QB of Alex Smith. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Tony Pauline's, new mock, arguably the biggest fan among draft geeks of Payne.  While I'd be happy to see them go Vea over Payne.  This would drive me nuts, they pass over both Fitzpatrick and D. James.  I'd quickly chug down a 6 pack if that happens.  

 

http://draftanalyst.com/mock-draft-april-22-change-top

 

13	Washington Redskins
Vita Vea		DT	Washington
Analysis: Vea to the ‘Skins is the worst kept secret in the league.

[wilco_holland]

27 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

 

Of all this years QBs, I think Rosen would be the worst for DC. His speak your mind and intellect will be terrible here. You are in the political center of the country, with a huge media coverage. Before we know he will make political comments that will fill the pages of local news for weeks.

 

We saw it with mr. Griffin. We just need a QB who wins games and gives boring answer. No need to create drama for the news guys. 

 

I rather have more picks then. Because I like Jay. Jay can only stay if he wins. Three talented players will help him more then the back up QB of Alex Smith. 

[Silvernon]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree in concept but IMO you picked the wrong player, Vita Vea would be the prototype monster nose profile that fans have been clamoring for not Payne.  Personally, I'd rather they go elsewhere with the pick.  But if I had to choose --I am with most of the draft geeks on this, I'd go Vea.   Having said that, there seems to be growing buzz Vea is gone before 13.  Payne looks like slam dunk with be there at 13.   Will see. 

 

It is a difference of opinion on what you want though....the potential of Vea trumps Paybe, absolutely. 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Here's Peter King's which is supposedly all about what he hears.  On that one Derwin James actually gets taken past our pick.  Payne goes #20.  Guice is knocked to the 2nd round.   Vea goes 11.  We take D. Ward. 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/23/mock-draft-prospects-trades-first-round-mmqb-peter-king

 

 

I don't recall his first round as accurate from 2017....I always feel there are some individuals on forums that are as aware of the player's value to teams as the draftniks. 

 

Here are your prototypes:

Barkley

Allen 

Vea
Edmunds
James

Nelson

Davenport

Leighton Vander Esch

 

It's just a question of who gets picked in the top 10 other than Rosen and Darnold. I feel we can assume that Ward, Chubb, Roquan and Fitzpatrick are probably that group contending for a spot.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tony Pauline's, new mock, arguably the biggest fan among draft geeks of Payne.  While I'd be happy to see them go Vea over Payne.  This would drive me nuts, they pass over both Fitzpatrick and D. James.  I'd quickly chug down a 6 pack if that happens.  

 

http://draftanalyst.com/mock-draft-april-22-change-top

 

13	Washington Redskins
Vita Vea		DT	Washington
Analysis: Vea to the ‘Skins is the worst kept secret in the league.

 

I still don't see a reality where Minkah, Ward or James make it to 13. But IF Minkah was on the board and we passed up on him I'm boarding the red eye and I'm en route to Dulles. Meet me at arrivals with the pitchforks, flaming torches, and effigy of Allen's F-ed up head on a pole! 

 

Hail. 

[Silvernon]

1 minute ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

I still don't see a reality where Minkah, Ward or James make it to 13. But IF Minkah was on the board and we passed up on him I'm boarding the red eye on en route to Dulles. Meet me at arrivals with the pitchforks, flaming torches, and effigy of Allen's F-ed up head on a pole! 

 

Hail. 

I'd take Vea over Fitzpatrick. Think the need and player player potential is better. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

I still don't see a reality where Minkah, Ward or James make it to 13. But IF Minkah was on the board and we passed up on him I'm boarding the red eye and I'm en route to Dulles. Meet me at arrivals with the pitchforks, flaming torches, and effigy of Allen's F-ed up head on a pole! 

 

Hail. 

He's easily my first choice as well. 

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

2 minutes ago, Silvernon said:

I'd take Vea over Fitzpatrick. Think the need and player player potential is better. 

 

You could make an argument for need but I can't agree with you on the player potential. I've flipped him back and forth with Barkley form 2 to 3 but he's the next best/ joint best overall talent in the entire draft behind Nelson at 1 IMHO. 

 

Hail. 

[wilco_holland]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

http://draftanalyst.com/mock-draft-april-22-change-top

 

13	Washington Redskins
Vita Vea		DT	Washington
Analysis: Vea to the ‘Skins is the worst kept secret in the league.

 

And Billy Price in the second. Would be sick combo. Think that helps the team a lot. (I would go different guy in first but Vea is okay)