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About Panninho

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  1. Panninho

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I see absolutely no scenario where Higgins falls to the third. Is that a wish or is there some talk that he might slide? I see absolutely no scenario where Higgins falls to the third. Is that a wish or is there some talk that he might slide?
  2. I think people are judging players way too fast. I mean I get it, Holcomb didn't have a season that is in general considered a great season for a ILB. But for a rookie 5th round pick that was considered a special teams and backup player to start 15 games and put up these numbers that's pretty solid. It's just unfair to compare him to the best linebackers in the league. Compare him to players from his rookie class. Devin White: 58 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 FF, 1 Int Devin Bush: 72 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 Int Bobby Okereke: 48 tackles, 1 sack, 2 FF, 0 Int Cole Holcomb: 74 tackles, 1 sack, 3 FF, 0 Int Doesn't look to shabby. Considering he played on a defense that was confused about 80% of their snaps.
  3. Panninho

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    As you might remember I asked you for your take on KJ Hill a couple of weeks back @stevemcqueen1. On the one hand I love that he shows out at the senior bowl because I really like him as a draft prospect. However, with the recent success of Ohio State receivers and especially Terry McLaurin I feel like he might be going higher now than I was anticipating. I am not sure how good he is outside the slot. If he was there in the 4th I'd take him but I am not sure if we should draft "just" a slot receiver prior to that considering Sims put up some nice tape.
  4. Panninho

    Is Dominance Predicated on the EDGE?

    I think my main issue with stats/analytics that are often discussed is this: You mostly find out in retrospect. Stats only tell a full story once you have accumulated a data set that's big enough. Right now, and rightfully so, 49ers and Ravens get the full glorification for their innovative offenses. They run a lot of 21 personnel, they go for it on 4th down, they rely heavily on the contribution of their fullbacks and build the offense around teir TEs, etc. Now if everyone starts doing it, the teams that are ahead of the curve will go to something else that then will look genius once again. How do they do it? They probably got great analytic minds that detect trends from small sample sizes and then they are open-minded enough to try this stuff out and actually not rely primarily on their gut feeling. And once it works, it'll be out there and discussed. But then it is probably too late to jump on that ship. These stats never tell a full story. If we look at the PFF article for example that was posted here about how their own coverage grade seems to better correlate with their own expected points added that might very well be 100% accurate for the time they looked at it. Now we just saw a post-season where Derrick Henry ran all over the Ravens and Patriots and their much-heralded pass defenses and the 49ers attempted only 8 passes in an NFC championship game (the third lowest in post-season history) while completely destroying their opponent. Now I guess their coverage grades for those games might have been pretty good, considering almost nothing happend through the air but they got run over in the meantime. Maybe, and that is just speculation on my part, the league's extreme passing focus of the last 5-10 years might have skewed their own model in that regard. Now if teams get once again creative and exploit a defensive side's focus on stopping the pass by running all over them, these models might indicate in 5 years that stopping the run correlates the best with their own EPA model. I am not arguing here that everyone will now focus on the run game and running on first down 65% of the time will be the most innovative **** three years from now - it won't. And I am also not arguing that the PFF study is wrong and it might very well still be relevant in 10 years, I am simply trying to say that if you look at these macro trends because they are out there you are probably alreay late to the party. And basing your roster construction primarily on these macro trends might actually hurt you more than they help you because another team might already be one step ahead and construct a roster to exploit your weaknesses. What you need is a clear vision of where you want to go. You obviously take analytics into account to formulate your vision und you rely heavily on analytics to fulfill your vision. But if you have no vision, no analytics is going to help you because these trends change faster than you can adapt. There are multiple ways to be successful. The 49ers and the Ravens had two of the best defenses in the NFL this year while being constructed in a completely different way. I just hope we now have some minds in the building that actually find complementary pieces. I, personally, don't think building around an elite d-line is outdated. But for me it always looked like we just tried to build a d-line and didn't get any complimentary pieces behind that d-line but rather a random group of players that have completely different strengths and weaknesses. A guy like Josh Norman for example that excelled in a system in Carolina and was asked to something completely different here. And that's where a player like Greenlaw for the 49ers could come into place. A complimentary piece that fits into your overall vision. Just for clarification: PFF talks about rushing the passer and not stopping the run but the elite edge players mostly contribute in both aspects, so I did not differentiate here.
  5. Panninho

    Welcome to the Redskins Chase Young DE Ohio State

    Man I hope we get to see some of that stuff next year. They have the most talented D-line in the league and are really creative on top. With all these stunts and pick plays they asolutely maximize what they can get out of that line by not constantly relying on their players winning their 1 on 1s. Meanwhile: We are last in the NFL in stunts. This is so lazy. I mean everyone saw it. We had 3 or 4 guys at the line and that were the guys that were coming. Our blitz designs were ugly, we ran no stunts. The few games where we constantly lined up multiple people at the line and dropped different guys and thus created some confusion our defense played much better...before went back to doing what has not worked before. We still only had 2 sacks less than the 49ers. But I feel that we could get so much more pressures out of our defense if we would get a bite more creative. Same is true for our O-line. If you look at what the 49ers did yesterday with all their motions and movement in the run game and then look at Jay Gruden's run designs where he, once again, basically bets on every lineman winning his 1 on 1. I just want some of that creativity.
  6. Panninho

    Is Dominance Predicated on the EDGE?

    It's an interesting topic for sure, here is the problem though: First, the basis of this study are subjective grades that thus are error-prone to a certain degree. Second, correlation is different than causation. Just because something correlates doesn't mean that both things are logically connected (spurious relationship). And third, as the article mentions, their coverage grades are pretty unstable. So taking their grades as basis: Investing money in a dominant edge player is on average better spent than in a coverage guy ("Next year’s Aaron Donald is likely to be Aaron Donald, but if a team is going to have a ton of success as a result of strong play by their defense, they will likely need to have next year’s Stephon Gilmore on their team (who is probably not going to be Stephon Gilmore himself"). And I mean look at those edge players that are the highest paid in the league, they are all deserving of their relative position among their peers. Look at the highest paid corners. While they earn less on average almost half of those players did not at all live up to their contracts. Xavien Howard Dolphins 27 $75,250,000 $15,050,000 $46,000,000 $27,185,641 2025 UFA Josh Norman Redskins 33 $75,000,000 $15,000,000 $50,000,000 $36,500,000 2021 UFA Trumaine Johnson Jets 30 $72,500,000 $14,500,000 $45,000,000 $34,000,000 2023 UFA Xavier Rhodes Vikings 30 $70,100,000 $14,020,000 $40,826,000 $20,026,000 2023 UFA Patrick Peterson Cardinals 30 $70,050,000 $14,010,000 $48,000,000 $16,250,000 2021 UFA Kyle Fuller Bears 28 $56,000,000 $14,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000 2022 Void Marcus Peters Ravens 27 $42,000,000 $14,000,000 $31,468,118 $21,000,000 2023 UFA Desmond Trufant Falcons 30 $68,750,000 $13,750,000 $42,026,000 $20,776,000 2023 UFA A.J. Bouye Jaguars 29 $67,500,000 $13,500,000 $26,000,000 $26,000,000 2022 UFA Stephon Gilmore Patriots 30 $65,000,000 $13,000,000 $40,000,000 $31,000,000 2022 UFA Janoris Jenkins Saints 32 $62,500,000 $12,500,000 $28,800,000 $28,800,000 2021 UFA Malcolm Butler Titans 30 $61,250,000 $12,250,000 $30,000,000 $24,000,000 2023 UFA So this debate has its justification and at some point in the draft there might be a situation where the opportunity cost of staying put at #2 against trading down might become too big but it's extremely hard to identifiy that point if it is possible at all.
  7. I don't think this will happen. I was just trying to exlpain (from my point of view) why the Dolphins might trade up to #3 before trading up to #2.
  8. Well if there is another team that is highly interested in Tua and is willing to pay a steep price for our pick, Miami could only be sure to get Tua with #2. So if they trade for #3 and the Chargers/Raiders/whoever offers us a big package of draft picks they might still not get Tua. The reason why a team like Miami could trade up to #3 first is that it might make it cheaper for them in total. Let's assume they trade #5 and #26 to the Lions to move up to #3. A deal the Lions could be open to take. I mean they basically only move back one spot if they do not think about taking Tua themselves and add an additional first rounder. After all from the two teams that are now in front of them (Dolphins and Giants) one will take a player they do not want themselves. Then the Dolphins sit at #3 and have a very good argument for us to trade back one spot with them. We could still get Chase Young and add some draft capital if we switch with them, e.g. one of their second round picks. Every deal with another team will mean we lose Chase Young. So in this scenario the Dolphins would have to give up two firsts and a second to move up to #2. It would probably be more expensive for them to move up to #2 from #5. This whole sceanrio, however, only has a chance of happening if teams do not get the impression that we are all in on Young anyways.
  9. Panninho

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Anyone has an idea where Antoine Winfield Jr. is supposed to go? Could be a great pick at the top of the third if he lasts that long.
  10. Panninho

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Burrow had a year for the ages - no doubt. But I am surprised by how many people are ready to judge players after one year and would kill for Burrow over Haskins. I mean I get it, Burrow had this awesome year and looks like an asolute monster entering the NFL. But Burrow has had 3 full years of college experience before he had this monster year and he didn't really show a lot before that, even lost a competition with Haskins for the starting job. Burrow is also half a year older than Haskins. So I think Burrow shows one thing for me. You can't completely figure out a QB after one year. No one would have picked Burrow #1 overall last year if he declared. So what changed? He probably worked his ass off but also had the right coaches and supporting cast around him. We saw a somewhat similar development with Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill this year. I just think you need the right pieces in place, a bit similar to what @stevemcqueen1 constantly says about how franchise QBs are made and not drafted. And you need the right attitude in your qb, where there might be some questions in that regard about Haskins. I don't want to criticize anyone who would take Burrow right now - kid is awesome - I just find it interesting that so many people do not believe that other (in this case our) QBs could make a similar development after their first year of starting.
  11. I, personally, wouldn't take Burrow and try to trade down. However, if the coaching staff wants him and takes him I don't mind. I want our coaching staff and front office to have no restraints. Otherwise you can never hold them accountable.
  12. Panninho

    Who should be the next GM?

  13. The Tony Pauline Mailbag Tony, do you have any insight into if new head coach Ron Rivera is comfortable with Dwayne Haskins? What about the New York Giants now that they have hired Joe Judge? Any chance they pull a Kliff Kingsbury? I’m told two things about Rivera and the Redskins front office the way it is presently assembled: 1) they like Haskins; and 2) they love the Predator, Chase Young. I think there is no way and no reason for the Giants to consider moving away from Daniel Jones.
  14. Panninho

    OC - Scott Turner incoming

    Dude, just stop. Your logic is so inherently flawed it's absurd. Just because result XY occured doesn't mean it was caused by action XY. Correlation is not causation. So if KOC stayed it could also have been because Turner turned down the job or because KOC was extremely impressive in his interviews. All reports indicate that this was not a power move by Rivera but that he simply preferred Turner while keeping an open mind and interviewing other candidates. If at all this proves your theory to be wrong. Because Rivera de facto has full authority over hiring, because he was able to fire KOC and hire Turner. So we know this as a fact now. If he would have kept KOC it had to be solely his decision and no owner meddling.