The Official ES (or E...C) 2022 Free Agency Thread Signed G Andrew Norwell, Obada, Trai Turner...Goodbye Scherff, Kyle Allen, Tim Settle

[method man]

6 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

There’ll be plenty of cap cuts around the league too. Chatter that Tampa may cut both Smith and Mason from their starting OL group. Rivera wants to get our group younger though. We need to draft two OL players this year imo.

Both guys are interesting. On Smith, he just had his worst season from a PFF standpoint. He gave up 6 sacks this year and had 12 penalties. That being said, he is also still 29 and part of his issues may be due to Jensen and Cappa being hurt over the course of the year. I would see if TB would trade him and take on half his salary for 2023 for a pick swap where we give up a 6th and they give us a 7th

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2023 NFL free agency: Best team fits for top 50 available players

41. Nate Davis, G

Best team fit: Washington Commanders

With Commanders right guard Trai Turner set up to be a free agent, Washington could upgrade at the position by adding Davis. He's a good mover at 320 pounds and can reach and climb in zone schemes, delivering a strike on contact. And Davis will drop anchor to handle power rushers in pass protection. While his run-block win rate was below average this season (68.8%), he did rank among the top 25 guards in pass block win rate (93.2).

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35673514/2023-nfl-free-agency-best-team-fits-top-50-available-players-free-agent-landing-spots-new-deals

[tmandoug1]

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

2023 NFL free agency: Best team fits for top 50 available players

41. Nate Davis, G

Best team fit: Washington Commanders

With Commanders right guard Trai Turner set up to be a free agent, Washington could upgrade at the position by adding Davis. He's a good mover at 320 pounds and can reach and climb in zone schemes, delivering a strike on contact. And Davis will drop anchor to handle power rushers in pass protection. While his run-block win rate was below average this season (68.8%), he did rank among the top 25 guards in pass block win rate (93.2).

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35673514/2023-nfl-free-agency-best-team-fits-top-50-available-players-free-agent-landing-spots-new-deals

I really want to see us load up on the line this year. Is the sacks allowed reversed in ranking? 385 snaps and only 3 sacks seems pretty good. 

[method man]

I think one of the reasons we need a strong OL for next season is one of Sam’s weaknesses is holding on to the ball too long. Need to give him much better pass pro

[Chris 44]

2 hours ago, method man said:

I think one of the reasons we need a strong OL for next season is one of Sam’s weaknesses is holding on to the ball too long. Need to give him much better pass pro

I was thinking the same. Probably the only negative I saw (very small sample obviously) was that he seemed to hold on the ball a long time. Maybe just lack of experience in the offense, game speed and going against NFL caliber D line?  Thinking he cleans that up with experience though.

[Redskins 2021]

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[FootballZombie]

6 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

No back-sies

 

[kingdaddy]

13 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

I would not, That's a pro bowler, who we drafted, for an unknown....

[Redskins 2021]

I could see D. Jones going to Baltimore if Jackson is traded. If he is franchised I think Baltimore will sign Barkley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

Instantly. And I love Payne and want him re-signed to big money. But I’ll take the rookie contract, and that’s a sweet spot for some help we need in the 1st round imo. Because there’s a great chance we fail to re-sign him due to the ownership change, etc. anyways and have to Franchise Tag and then settle for a compensatory 3rd in the future, or something. So getting 18 is a great way to wash our hands of the situation, as much as I’d miss Payne and as much as I think his impact on the DL is so important to the way we’re currently constructed. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Conn

[markmills67]

2 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

Yes definitely 

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

Locking in an elite production from both DT spots directly impacts wins and losses at a level second only to the elite and borderline elite QB starter. 
 

I like idea of locking him in long term. He’s at peak value, not mad if they entertain something but definitely lean towards retaining his services. He’s so damn young too, the next 3 years project to be his absolute prime. 

[RabidFan]

Payne had 3.5 more sacks than Sweat.  I know it was a contract year but perhaps we keep him and dangle Sweat instead.  It seems we are getting more push and pass rushing from our interior guys and if they push the pocket, even an Obama or another on the end can reap benefits.

[KillBill26]

5 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

I'd first offer Payne a contract similar to Allen's.  If he declines, I'll gladly take 18 instead of playing tag.

[method man]

22 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

I'd first offer Payne a contract similar to Allen's.  If he declines, I'll gladly take 18 instead of playing tag.

 

The opportunity cost of Payne is essentially Sweat and a potential first (assuming you'd have to let Sweat go if you resign Payne). If #18 were on the table for Payne, I'd go ahead and make that trade. You can either keep that pick or break it into a later 1st and at least a couple Day 2 and Day 3 picks. If we were to lose Payne, I'd still feel good about the DT spot with Mathis and Ridgeway in place. Both guys are more traditional NTs than Payne anyway.

[kingdaddy]

58 minutes ago, method man said:

 

The opportunity cost of Payne is essentially Sweat and a potential first (assuming you'd have to let Sweat go if you resign Payne). If #18 were on the table for Payne, I'd go ahead and make that trade. You can either keep that pick or break it into a later 1st and at least a couple Day 2 and Day 3 picks. If we were to lose Payne, I'd still feel good about the DT spot with Mathis and Ridgeway in place. Both guys are more traditional NTs than Payne anyway.

I like your idea of turning Payne into 2 or 3 players (picks) but I don't like the message it sends to the locker room by dealing him after he had such a great season. We need to establish culture guys and pay them when they earn it. Payne has missed one game in his career, that's incredible. The man balls out....but I get your side of this too. I think we'll end up paying him unless he's unreasonable in his demands. 

[KillBill26]

3 hours ago, method man said:

 

The opportunity cost of Payne is essentially Sweat and a potential first (assuming you'd have to let Sweat go if you resign Payne). If #18 were on the table for Payne, I'd go ahead and make that trade. You can either keep that pick or break it into a later 1st and at least a couple Day 2 and Day 3 picks. If we were to lose Payne, I'd still feel good about the DT spot with Mathis and Ridgeway in place. Both guys are more traditional NTs than Payne anyway.

I like Payne much, much more than sweat.  Our DT duo is special, where our d line was playing great even when we were starting toohill and JSW last year.  I would do everything I could to keep Allen/Payne together.  If we trade sweat, I'm not losing any sleep over that.  I feel any decent d end will succeed on that d line if our DTs stay.  

 

But I do agree with liking the cheap labor behind Payne, that would definitely help cushion the blow!  But I think the drop off from payne to Mathis will be felt a lot more than drop off from sweat to day 2 pick to replace him.

 

And I usually would prefer to trade back, but takes two to tango.  

[method man]

Ignoring circumstances, I'd keep Payne over Sweat myself. However, we have an inhouse replacement for Payne in Mathis if it comes to it and we don't have that for Sweat. Furthermore, there is a steady positionmate in Allen and it is tough to consider Young one. Lastly, it is tough to find a quality EDGE. You either overpay in FA with a 8 figure AAV contract or generally have to take a guy in the 1st or 2nd round

[MrJL]

35 minutes ago, method man said:

Ignoring circumstances, I'd keep Payne over Sweat myself. However, we have an inhouse replacement for Payne in Mathis if it comes to it and we don't have that for Sweat. Furthermore, there is a steady positionmate in Allen and it is tough to consider Young one. Lastly, it is tough to find a quality EDGE. You either overpay in FA with a 8 figure AAV contract or generally have to take a guy in the 1st or 2nd round

 

Efe Obada, James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill played well in place of Chase Young. We got 8 sacks from DEs who weren't Sweat or Chase.  Obada would have to be re-signed but he'd probably be cheaper

[method man]

21 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

Efe Obada, James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill played well in place of Chase Young. We got 8 sacks from DEs who weren't Sweat or Chase.  Obada would have to be re-signed but he'd probably be cheaper

We don’t know whether Mathis can be a starter but I bet he is more likely to be one than any of these DEs given his pedigree and what they need him to do. None of those guys are starters

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, method man said:

We don’t know whether Mathis can be a starter but I bet he is more likely to be one than any of these DEs given his pedigree and what they need him to do. None of those guys are starters

 

I think their point is that these "non-starters" almost outplayed our superstar Edges. Young has a built in excuse, but that excuse is aging quickly. This is his prove it or lose the fanbase year. Sweat just doesn't finish. 

[philibusters]

14 hours ago, RabidFan said:

Payne had 3.5 more sacks than Sweat.  I know it was a contract year but perhaps we keep him and dangle Sweat instead.  It seems we are getting more push and pass rushing from our interior guys and if they push the pocket, even an Obama or another on the end can reap benefits.

 

Payne has 26 sacks in 5 seasons, so he is averaging 5.2 sacks per year.   He had 11.5 sacks in 2022, but it sacks are fluky.  Pressures are more predictive.  He had 49 QB pressures in 2022 which was also a career high which included 11.5 sacks, 10 QB hit, and 27 pressures.   His QB pressures in previous years were 47, 37, 23, and 27.   His second highest sack total was 5 his rookie year when he had 27 pressures.   In other words, I am saying sacks are not the most predictive stat out there because while pressures are generated there is a good amount of luck in how many of them become sacks.  After his 5 sacks his rookie year, Payne only had 9.5 sacks the next 3 seasons on 107 pressures (which admittedly is a low sack total for the amount of pressures and if you just looked at the sacks you would undervalue Payne for those three seasons).  Before regression to the mean and getting 11.5 off 49 this past season.

 

For what its worth Montez Sweat had 62 pressures this past year.  That was a career high for him.

 

My point is if you give Payne 20 million a year thinking you are going to get 11 to 12 sacks a year, you are going to be disappointed.  Even if if you give him that deal thinking you will get 40 to 50 pressures a year you will likely be disappointed.  Probably realistically you can expect between 30 to 50 pressures a year.

 

I would take #18 in a heart.  For the 2023 draft, the rookie at the 18 pick gets 15.5 million over 4 seasons.   Payne is looking for 80 million over those four seasons.  To me you are going to get way way better value with that 18th pick.

Edited February 22, 2023 by philibusters

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

Payne has 26 sacks in 5 seasons, so he is averaging 5.2 sacks per year.   He had 11.5 sacks in 2022, but it sacks are fluky.  Pressures are more predictive.  He had 49 QB pressures in 2022 which was also a career high which included 11.5 sacks, 10 QB hit, and 27 pressures.   His QB pressures in previous years were 47, 37, 23, and 27.   His second highest sack total was 5 his rookie year when he had 27 pressures.   In other words, I am saying sacks are not the most predictive stat out there because while pressures are generated there is a good amount of luck in how many of them become sacks.  After his 5 sacks his rookie year, Payne only had 9.5 sacks the next 3 seasons on 107 pressures (which admittedly is a low sack total for the amount of pressures and if you just looked at the sacks you would undervalue Payne for those three seasons).  Before regression to the mean and getting 11.5 off 49 this past season.

 

For what its worth Montez Sweat had 62 pressures this past year.  That was a career high for him.

 

My point is if you give Payne 20 million a year thinking you are going to get 11 to 12 sacks a year, you are going to be disappointed.  Even if if you give him that deal thinking you will get 40 to 50 pressures a year you will likely be disappointed.  Probably realistically you can expect between 30 to 50 pressures a year.

 

I would take #18 in a heart.  For the 2023 draft, the rookie at the 18 pick gets 15.5 million over 4 seasons.   Payne is looking for 80 million over those four seasons.  To me you are going to get way way better value with that 18th pick.

 

I think you have a point but also overlook things when you say sacks are flukey and pressures are more of an indicator. At some point, you're either a finisher or you aren't.

 

Sweat doesn't convert his pressures into sacks often enough. He gets there then fails to finish. Payne, when he gets there, has a much higher conversion %. Considering he is a defensive tackle, averaging more sacks per year than our first round edge, on less pressures and snaps.

 

But to your overall point... if we were offered #18 for Payne I'd take it. No hesitation. Trade back from 16 or 18, get some combo of best player at OT/DL/CB/Mayer and move on with our lives. I'm not all that concerned with DL even if we lose Payne, Sweat and even Young. I like Daron Payne quite a bit, but we've had an okay defense for a few years and we need a better than okay offense.

 

Spend that extra cash on improving the OL and replace Payne's roster spot with a BPA player at 18 and call it a win. 

 

Then trade Sweat, too. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

22 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Would you trade Payne for pick 18 from the Detroit.

 

 

 

Yes. I love Payne. Would love to lock him in long-term, especially if Sweat and Chase don't get extended and we need to lean into IDL while we re-tool DE.

 

But I also know that $40+ million a year for two DTs is massive.

 

Can't see us getting a 1st for Payne but I guess you never know. My assumption had been that Payne being traded would not be for picks but as a package should we choose to go after a QB. But the only real scenario that seemed to fit for me was Chicago IF Fields is available. Something like #16 and Payne for Fields. But I'm cool rolling with Howell.

 

So yes, if we got offered a mid-1st for Payne I'd jump at it.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

We have the short and long-term cap flexibility to basically do what we want. Once we cut Wentz we have $34 million this year but $126 million in 2024 and $218 million projected for 2025 per OTC. We simply do not have many contracts on the books beyond this and next year. Our only contracts on the books for 2025 are our 2022 rookie class, Terry McLaurin and Jonathan Allen. So throw out the 2025 number. 2024 also doesn't have Payne, Sweat, Chase or Curl.

 

So with all that money to spend, and pretty limited $$ long-term invested in the OL ... I have zero issue going for 2 big splashes in FA on the OL. In fact, I would lean into that pretty heavily into that plan especially if we plan to be one and done with Payne.

 

Two names I am really intrigued by ... Orlando Brown, Jr. (if he hits the market) to play LT and Nate Davis to play RG.

 

1. It allows you to keep Cosmi at RT.

2. It let's you move on from Charles Leno, saving $8m this year and $14m in 2024. 

3. It frees the draft up a bit to go CB/LB earlier. But it also doesn't prevent you from addressing OL. I would even encourage multiple IOL picks in R2-4. Roullier could be an additional cap casualty to free up money this and next year, but I would hold off there until you had a bonafide replacement (so probably not until 2024). 

 

LT - Orlando Brown

LG - R2 pick + Chris Paul

C - Roullier + R3 pick

RG -Nate Davis

RT - Cosmi

 

Hell, in the above scenario where we tag and trade Payne for, say, pick 18 ... you not only have gobs of $$ to throw at Brown and Davis, but you'd then have 1, 1, 2, 3, 4. You could go RG, CB, LB, Center via BPA those first 4 rounds, and then hit a DL in the 4th if you want to bollster depth there.

 

LT - Orlando Brown, Rookie 6th or 7th round project

LG - R1 Rookie at pick 16, Chris Paul

C - Roullier, R3 Rookie in R3

RG - Nate Davis, Saahdiq Charles

RT - Sam Cosmi, Corn Lucas

OL would be totally overhauled an dpotentially dominant. You'd still have a 1st, 2nd to address Defense. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins