Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[TheShredder]

On 5/14/2021 at 3:36 AM, KDawg said:

Touchy subject matter

I see what you did there!

[TheShredder]

On 5/13/2021 at 11:33 PM, Burgundy Yoda said:

I think people need to re-watch Cousins again if they are thinking Fitzpatrick can be better than him. Its just a flat out unrealistic take. 

Maybe right about the comparison, however Fitz was #5 in the NFL in QBR.  That's an intriguing static because of how it's calculated.  Here's an interesting explanation about TOTAL QBR.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

Concluding Thoughts

 

What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that. It illustrates that converting on third-and-long is important to a quarterback. It shows that a pass that is in the air for 40 yards is more reflective of a quarterback than a pass that is in the air for 5 yards and the receiver has 35 yards of run after the catch. These premises should sound reasonable to football fans. They come out of a lot of statistical analysis, but they are also consistent with what coaches and players understand.

 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, TheShredder said:

...and contracts to all his boys and upgrade their OL.  It was a huge investment that paid off.  TB's FO acting like a Hedge Fund.

 

Yeah it was certainly an investment and I wasn't necessarily trying to completely blow it off. But even if Brady bombed it would have meant they had a wasted one year and would probably need to start a rebuild and cut some high price guys. They weren't out multiple 1st round picks so the pain of a failed Brady experiment would have been there but wouldn't have cut nearly as deep as it would have if they'd had to give up lots of draft capital for him.

[Burgundy Yoda]

@TheShredder I've seen that data and although it's nice, the fact that it has Fitzpatrick ahead of Russell Wilson just makes me think that QBR is a joke. What are we supposed to take away from that, that Fitzpatrick is the 5th most effective QB in the league? It basically just shows that Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger and throws the ball down the field a lot, which we all knew lol. 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[TheShredder]

Just now, Burgundy Yoda said:

@TheShredder I've seen that data and although it's nice, the fact that it has Fitzpatrick ahead of Russell Wilson just makes me think that entire QBR list is a joke. What are we supposed to take away from that, that Fitzpatrick is the 5th best QB in the league? It basically just shows that Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger and throws the ball down the field a lot. 

I'm not sure as I had to read up to understand why that metric is so highly touted.  I think that it shows more of what kind of impact that particular QB has on his team because of the specifics it accounts for.  That higher impact on the game stat is what this team has been lacking at QB.  Where I view Cousins with a more traditionally inflated stat line.  But like I said before I think you maybe right about the comparison.  My sense is that Fitz hasn't played on good teams and in those roles he was rather forcibly having to win the games.  I'm interested in what a 2021 Fitz looks like where he only has to really push the envelope in situations vs as a primary role.  He's proven he can come from behind and perform some magic gun slinging, however if coaching makes it clear that there's a time for that, maybe he's more effective than we think.  I don't know if I've been clear or not.   

I think the TOTAL QBR is interesting as it's pointing at the impact that QB has on the game.

[SonnySideUp]

So is Ron sneaking another QB with good potential but low cost in the back door the way he did with Heinicke? Is he seeing something in these QB's that other teams are missing? I know, people are going to say that XFL season was only 5 games and that's not long enough for him to really show anything. Most people (including me) were on Ron for not going after one of the top 5 QB's in this years draft. I heard him say somewhere later on that there had only been 1 QB in this years draft that they really liked though and he was gone well before Washington could have moved up to get him. Most speculation that I've heard was that it was Tre Lance.

 

It seems to me that Ron is savvy enough and sly enough to just lie back while everyone else is going QB crazy in this year's draft and just quietly build the other need positions on the team. If his guy fell far enough for him to take a shot fine and if not, fine too. He was comfortable enough with Fitz, Allen, and Heinicke to run with just them this year if need be. He did alright, too. I've haven't seen anyone give the WFT anything lower than a B+ in this year's draft and mostly they have gotten A's.

 

Also, if I were Ron, if I don't get someone in the draft this year, I would also be figuring that well, Aaron Rodgers is out there. VERY low odds probably, but still, he is out out there. Then there is Watson. Again, very, very low odds and I probably wouldn't want him from a character standpoint but he is still out there. And there is always the possibility that even if I don't want him, if he is traded he might free up a QB somewhere else that I might indeed want.

 

And Lamar Jackson is still unsigned and Russell Wilson might become available as well. Again, very very low odds but then again, something might just break our way. So again if I'm Ron, i'm comfortable not spending much draft capital on a QB this year and just let the other teams continue their QB feeding frenzy.

On top of all of that, now he's also got his eye on *another* guy like Heinicke, who is cheap and may have good upside potential as well. It looks as if Ta'amu has the potential to be a starter someday. Again, if I were Ron, I'd figure I would have a year to find out one way or another. And if neither of them pan out, I STILL am going to be in good enough shape with draft picks next year that I can go after a strong QB candidate in that draft.

 

This is all just me hypothesizing though so who knows! It looks as if we've got a new face in the mix though.

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2021/5/15/22437692/could-jordan-taamu-end-up-as-washingtons-qb4

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Logan Paulsen who is working himself into the Cooley realm with his film reviews which he is doing for different podcasts.  

 

He weighed in on QB.

 

He buys in the last two years Fitz improved narrative.  He thinks he's a top half of the league QB.  He thinks they can win the division with him and win some in the playoffs.  He thinks Alex's mental game last year was really sharp but thinks they were limited with him as a QB.  He thinks Fitz will be a major upgrade.   He has some pause about Heinicke.  He played with a team when Heinicke was there and he said he was a mixed bag.    He also has some pause about Kyle Allen. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, SonnySideUp said:

 

So is Ron sneaking another QB with good potential but low cost in the back door the way he did with Heinicke? Is he seeing something in these QB's that other teams are missing? I know, people are going to say that XFL season was only 5 games and that's not long enough for him to really show anything. Most people (including me) were on Ron for not going after one of the top 5 QB's in this years draft. I heard him say somewhere later on that there had only been 1 QB in this years draft that they really liked though and he was gone well before Washington could have moved up to get him. Most speculation that I've heard was that it was Tre Lance.

 

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2021/5/15/22437692/could-jordan-taamu-end-up-as-washingtons-qb4

 

 

 

Listening to Rivera's own rhetoric and something beat guys have suggested if I had to come up with a pet theory as for why they aren't in a panic about QB:

 

A.  Fitzpatrick might play as a top half of the league QB and if so what if they surrounded him with a ton of talent.  What happens?

 

Multiple times recently it was mentioned including from Ron that Fitz might be here longer than just one season. 

 

We talked about Ta'amu some on the draft thread at the time.  I liked him as sort of a late round flier.  I'll see if i can find my post as to why.  I didn't love him or any of the 2nd tier types from that draft but if forced to pick one, he was among the list for me.   He definitely had more hype coming into his draft than Montez did.

 

It is ironic that Heinicke was Ta-amu's backup in the XFL. 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Inigo Montoya]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

We talked about Ta'amu some on the draft thread at the time.  I liked him as sort of a late round flier.  I'll see if i can find my post as to why.  I didn't love him or any of the 2nd tier types from that draft but if forced to pick one, he was among the list for me.   He definitely had more hype coming into his draft than Montez did.

 

It is ironic that Heinicke was Ta-amu's backup in the XFL. 

 

 

As someone who relocated to St. Louis as an adult, I became a big battlehawks fan for that short period.

Ta’amu was a stud in that brief season, definitely more interesting than Montez if you ask me. Great fit here if he can be our PS QB

[Going Commando]

I didn't think much of Ta'amu at Ole Miss.  Most loaded group of pass catchers in the country and the passing game still felt herky jerky and impotent that season.

 

But perhaps he's improved since then, and he's a no risk flier.

[JoggingGod]

13 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

@TheShredder I've seen that data and although it's nice, the fact that it has Fitzpatrick ahead of Russell Wilson just makes me think that QBR is a joke. What are we supposed to take away from that, that Fitzpatrick is the 5th most effective QB in the league? It basically just shows that Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger and throws the ball down the field a lot, which we all knew lol. 

Wilson didn’t play well at all the second half of last year. It shouldn’t be that surprising.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

@TheShredder I've seen that data and although it's nice, the fact that it has Fitzpatrick ahead of Russell Wilson just makes me think that QBR is a joke. What are we supposed to take away from that, that Fitzpatrick is the 5th most effective QB in the league? It basically just shows that Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger and throws the ball down the field a lot, which we all knew lol. 

 

QBR isn't a metric that isolates a gunslinger stats like YPA and just ranks QBs that way.  Though YPA is seen as a positive metric as it should.  The reason why that stat has surpassed the QB rating metric is because it dives deeper into the context of the spot -- its not a shallower stat.

 

The purpose behind QBR  is to factor context especially as far as underweighting garbage time.  And factoring supporting cast as for drops, etc.   

 

It's not a perfect QB stat.  They are all imperfect.  But arguably the most imperfect QB stats is plain QB rating.  But they all have some meaning if you can bring some context to it.  It's the same thing we talk about in the draft thread from time to time.  PFF ratings or name that stat is interesting but none of them are the be all and end all.

 

I am probably one of the bigger Fitz fans here.  But did it even cross my mind that he's a top 5 QB because he ranked that way last year or even a top 8 QB based on the QBR rating the year before?  Nope.  But i do think it indicates he played well.  On rare occasions, you'll see a QB that will floor you that they had a high QBR rating but its much more uncommon than common from my recollection.  it's usually some bad QB who had an anamoly season.  the top rated QBS as for QBR are typically really good and I don't think that's a coincidence.  The fact that Fitzpatrick is the one odd duck QB in that top 10, isn't some odd coincidence either IMO. The QBR rating in 2018 had him ranked 33.  It speaks to Fitz's rise that some think is legit and others think is a mirage.   I am betting its legit.  But who knows.  Will see. Ironically Fitz actually had a good QB rating in 2018 but not QBR.   So factoring context the QBR metric wasn't friendly to him that season. 

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/3/13/16839982/5-oclock-club-difference-nfl-passer-rating-and-quarterback-rating-redskins-alex-smith-kirk-cousins

Think of QBR as an attempt to rate a quarterback by difficulty. A quarterback gets more credit for success in more difficult situations, and less credit for success in less difficult situations. It tries to reward QBs for making the clutch throws downfield versus an easy swing pass on second down.

It’s a 0 to 100 scale, where 50 should represent the true middle point, meaning those quarterbacks above 50 should be winning more games than those below 50. The nearer to 100 a QB is, the more ‘elite’ he should be.

 

Passer Rating

Passer Rating is the official NFL measure of quarterback performance, and its calculation is much simpler than the QBR, as it depends only on aggregate statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in. Additionally, passer rating double counts completion percentage, favoring quarterbacks who tend to throw screens and other short passes. Passer rating is calculated using each quarterback’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions, and has a maximum value of 158.3 and minimum value of 0.

Passer rating ignores large parts of a quarterback’s performance. It ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also does not put plays into any context. For example, while the QBR treats a 5-yard gain on second-and-5 as very different from a 5-yard gain on third-and-10, passer rating treats all yards, whether they are air yards or yards after catch, as equal, and belonging to the QB.

 

 

The order of the best at a spot is rarely going to neatly fall in order of a stat, heck that's especially the case with PFF stats.   But the fact that Fitz is ranked that highly in QBR for two seasons straight backs the eye test and the narrative about him from South Florida.  I read the press here as much as the DC press.  And have seen much of his Dolphins career including some games live.

 

I'd agree its a joke if the higher ranked QBR QBs tended to stink and we saw a series of mediocre or worse QBs going to toe with the great ones.  But you don't see that often.  Typically the crappy QBs also have crappy QBR ratings.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-quarterback-ryan-fitzpatrick-not-ready-to-retire

Fitzpatrick's two-year stint with the Dolphins has to be considered a success for the 38-year-old Harvard alum.

He was team MVP in 2019 when he passed for 3,529 yards and led the team in rushing and then followed that in 2020 by setting a career high in completion percentage at 68.5. His passer rating of 95.6 in 2020 was the second-best of his career, behind only the 100.4 he posted in 2018 in his second of two seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Fitzpatrick said more than once during his time in Miami that he felt he was playing the best football of his career, and he's looking to continue his late-career surge — even if it's with a different team.

 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Fitz and Alex are interesting comparisons.  Opposite side of extremes.  Alex ultra conservative.  Fitz ultra aggressive.

 

Football Outsiders coined a stat "Alex" after Alex Smith which is check downs thrown short of the sticks on third or 4th down.  

 

No shocker Fitz was the 2nd most aggressive among QBs in the NFL when it came to avoiding throwing short of the sticks for a first down.

 

Fitz explained his style pretty well in an interview.  He accedes he throws too many picks and is more conscious of that later in his career but he said there is a method to the madness. He gets aggressive when in his mind its warranted.  He said in particular he will let it all hang out when he's a rallying team from behind and many of his picks have happened that way in his career.  He agreed he could be more careful with the ball in that context. But at the same time he crowed a little about it by saying he knows some QBs are more careful in those situations because they are afraid to ruin their stats.  He on the other hand doesn't care whether it ruins his stats sheet.  He's just trying to win.

 

It should be an interesting ride with Fitz. @RWJ and I talked about this on the thread before they signed Fitz that if you go through Rivera's quotes about what he is looking for in a QB, he seemed to be describing Fitz. 

 

https://www.washingtonfootball.com/news/ryan-fitzpatrick-fits-ron-rivera-washington-football-quarterback

"He's got to be tough, first and foremost," Rivera told Colin Cowherd on March 12, three days before the team reportedly agreed to terms with Fitzpatrick. "He has to be tough -- mentally tough, physically tough. He has to have a true feel and love and desire for his teammates. It's an amazing thing, but when that teammate knows that...guy's going to do everything that he can to be there for his teammates, be around his teammates, it's an intangible. And then I think [be] fearless."

Washington had other paths it could have taken to find a starting quarterback, but Rivera chose Fitzpatrick because he possessed these qualities. No matter where he has gone in his 16-year career spanning eight teams, Fitzpatrick has been praised for being a good teammate who is tough and fearless. And it sounds like Rivera expects him to put those skills on display once again.

"He was a guy that when I was in Carolina at one time and we had to compete against him, you always sat there and go: 'Gosh, this guy -- there's something about this guy,'" Rivera said during his free agency press conference Thursday. "It's going to be intriguing for us to see exactly how it unfolds and how it fits with us."

 

Alex Rankings Below (meaning the top ones were least likely to throw short of the sticks on 3rd or 4th down)

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[-9-]

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

QBR isn't a metric that isolates a gunslinger stats like YPA and just ranks QBs that way.  Though YPA is seen as a positive metric as it should.  The reason why that stat has surpassed the QB rating metric is because it dives deeper into the context of the spot -- its not a shallower stat.

 

I am probably one of the bigger Fitz fans here.  But did it even cross my mind that he's a top 5 QB because he ranked that way last year or even a top 8 QB based on the QBR rating the year before?  Nope.  But i do think it indicates he played well.  On rare occasions, you'll see a QB that will floor you that they had a high QBR rating but its much more uncommon than common from my recollection.  it's usually some bad QB who had an anamoly season.  the top rated QBS as for QBR are typically really good and I don't think that's a coincidence.  The fact that Fitzpatrick is the one odd duck QB in that top 10, isn't some odd coincidence either IMO. The QBR rating in 2018 had him ranked 33.  It speaks to Fitz's rise that some think is legit and others think is a mirage.   I am betting its legit.  But who knows.  Will see. Ironically Fitz actually had a good QB rating in 2018 but not QBR.   So factoring context the QBR metric wasn't friendly to him that season. 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 5/12/2021 at 10:37 AM, Darth Tater said:

With the exception of Allen thru Gibbs 1.0, it is not for the lack of trying to find the guy. Since Snyder: Ramsey, Campbell, RG3 and Haskins (not to mention multiple trades).  Since Baugh, Snead was the closest because we flipped him for Sonny. Our best direct guys were Rypien, Ferrotte and Cousins

It’s already been said, but tossing some vet corpses, broken down arms and 2nd and 3rd round graded QB’s taken in late round one does not constitute a serious effort to address the position. In 1994 and 2012 we made serious efforts, beyond that we’ve done next to nothing to seriously address the position from a long term perspective (Brad Johnson was an emergency and costly overpay for a quick fix temp solve when an ownership change cost us Trent Green) for decades and we just blew a rare back to back pair of classes opportunity to fix it. Will be interesting to see if we solve it through accidental means and just get lucky or if we’re just screwed. Needless to say, I’m betting on the latter.

[TheShredder]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Alex Rankings Below (meaning the top ones were least likely to throw short of the sticks on 3rd or 4th down)

[TheShredder]

I didn't rally up for Fitz when the thread started, but I did mention him.  I still don't think WFT has much of a contending window when you throw a rookie into the process, taking up 2-3 yrs to get to the top of the heap.  Mahomes is an anomaly and J.Allen is more realistic with respect for the NFL QB development timeline.  This roster can win a lot now and the Defense isn't going to be able to keep everyone in short order.  Solving the QB equation, as difficult as it is, does make sense the way they've chose to do it.  Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.  They're apparently doing their jobs following a plan and being patient with the rookie QB trend being so popular.  Definitely building a talented and deep roster.  That just might be the smartest decision.

[RWJ]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Fitz and Alex are interesting comparisons.  Opposite side of extremes.  Alex ultra conservative.  Fitz ultra aggressive.

 

Football Outsiders coined a stat "Alex" after Alex Smith which is check downs thrown short of the sticks on third or 4th down.  

 

No shocker Fitz was the 2nd most aggressive among QBs in the NFL when it came to avoiding throwing short of the sticks for a first down.

 

Fitz explained his style pretty well in an interview.  He accedes he throws too many picks and is more conscious of that later in his career but he said there is a method to the madness. He gets aggressive when in his mind its warranted.  He said in particular he will let it all hang out when he's a rallying team from behind and many of his picks have happened that way in his career.  He agreed he could be more careful with the ball in that context. But at the same time he crowed a little about it by saying he knows some QBs are more careful in those situations because they are afraid to ruin their stats.  He on the other hand doesn't care whether it ruins his stats sheet.  He's just trying to win.

 

It should be an interesting ride with Fitz. @RWJ and I talked about this on the thread before they signed Fitz that if you go through Rivera's quotes about what he is looking for in a QB, he seemed to be describing Fitz. 

 

https://www.washingtonfootball.com/news/ryan-fitzpatrick-fits-ron-rivera-washington-football-quarterback

"He's got to be tough, first and foremost," Rivera told Colin Cowherd on March 12, three days before the team reportedly agreed to terms with Fitzpatrick. "He has to be tough -- mentally tough, physically tough. He has to have a true feel and love and desire for his teammates. It's an amazing thing, but when that teammate knows that...guy's going to do everything that he can to be there for his teammates, be around his teammates, it's an intangible. And then I think [be] fearless."

Washington had other paths it could have taken to find a starting quarterback, but Rivera chose Fitzpatrick because he possessed these qualities. No matter where he has gone in his 16-year career spanning eight teams, Fitzpatrick has been praised for being a good teammate who is tough and fearless. And it sounds like Rivera expects him to put those skills on display once again.

"He was a guy that when I was in Carolina at one time and we had to compete against him, you always sat there and go: 'Gosh, this guy -- there's something about this guy,'" Rivera said during his free agency press conference Thursday. "It's going to be intriguing for us to see exactly how it unfolds and how it fits with us."

 

Alex Rankings Below (meaning the top ones were least likely to throw short of the sticks on 3rd or 4th down)

 

Indeed, SIP.  They have upgraded quite a bit on O and some more on D.  They have given FItz a real chance to thrive and I hope and expect Fitz will be here longer than 1 year.   

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

I’ll go ahead and be the total jerk and say if Deshaun gets cleared from a legal standpoint, I would trade for him in a heart beat. The price would be less then it was 3 months ago, and dude is still 25 years old. They say a settlement is coming. I would not be surprised if Washington is all over either him or Aaron. 
 

I’m not down on Fitz, I can’t wait to see him play, but Watson is another level special. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I’ll go ahead and be the total jerk and say if Deshaun gets cleared from a legal standpoint, I would trade for him in a heart beat. The price would be less then it was 3 months ago, and dude is still 25 years old. They say a settlement is coming. I would not be surprised if Washington is all over either him or Aaron. 
 

I’m not down on Fitz, I can’t wait to see him play, but Watson is another level special. 

While the price will be less, there is still risk involved.  If anything, it's rather clear that Watson has a problem.  Perhaps it's not to the extent the allegations make it out to be, but a problem none the less.  What is to say those issues don't follow him to DC, and we are marred in drama, and out several premium draft picks and a $40M/yr salary to boot?

 

I get it - I'd love to have his play on the field, as it would be unlike anything we've known since pretty much ever.  But personally, I'm a bit apprehensive on who he is after reading into all these lawsuits and the consistencies among them.  I'd imagine Ron would feel the same.

[Burgundy Yoda]

https://fansided.com/2021/05/19/nfl-executives-project-potential-deshaun-watson-trade/

 

This article suggests we do this trade for Deshaun Watson:

2022 First Rounder

2023 First Rounder

Montez Sweat

Terry McLaurin

 

😂

Edited May 19, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[mistertim]

I find it really hard to imagine Rivera being interested in Watson given all the allegations against him. It would just seem counter to the entire culture he's trying to build and the kind of guys he's been bringing in up until now. This isn't a case where a QB is sort of a jerk or a diva...we know Rivera can deal with guys like that. This is totally different. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is currently battling over 20 cases of sexual assault against him after a bunch of massage therapists say he took advantage of them.

Prior to the allegations, Watson had demanded to be traded by the Texans. While the trade talks have died down since the lawsuits began to arise, there are reportedly still a few teams interested in the star quarterback.

According to Fansided’s Matt Lombardo, Watson is currently drawing interest from three teams: The Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and Washington Football Team.

 

 

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

I wonder if there is any truth that we remain interested in Watson. It just doesn’t seem like a Rivera culture move. 

[FootballZombie]

2 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

2022 First Rounder

2023 First Rounder

Montez Sweat

Terry McLaurin

 

That site is off its rocker

I wouldn't have given that up before the cases, I surely won't after any kind of settlement is reached. Price has to be effected.

 

2 1s

a 2nd

Ion

 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by FootballZombie