Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

There’s no reason to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a Brissett type at all, it’s a waste and you’re still in QB purgatory.

2nd or 3rd rounds were too high for Brissett. The Pats reached on him due to the need for a Brady backup. Brissett looked like the type that could be a perfect 2nd stringer for years, capable of filling in and eventually become a starter. He had most of the attributes you want in a QB. He just needed more time learning to read defenses and have coaches work on getting him to stop throwing from his back foot. If you get that in the 4th or 5th that's a good risk.  

Newman a better athlete and leader than Brissett was coming out but really missed the past year which sucks, yet makes him intriguing. Someone will take a shot at him by the 2nd or 3rd.  Mond I watched in 3 games and while I see the potential, IMO you can't take him before the 4th.

 

If WFT doesn't bring in a big starter:

I wouldn't hate a Heinicke/Allen/Newman trio 

Brissett today would be a good mobile game manager as a starter. He would be an upgrade over Allen

How about a Heinicke/Brissett/Newman trio

 

Trask could fall into the discussion like Mond, I wouldn't take him before the 4th or 5th with mobility being a big drawback

[Thinking Skins]

19 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

No....haven't seen it. Did RR cut him?

Yep. 

 

[Thinking Skins]

9 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

2nd or 3rd rounds were too high for Brissett. The Pats reached on him due to the need for a Brady backup. Brissett looked like the type that could be a perfect 2nd stringer for years, capable of filling in and eventually become a starter. He had most of the attributes you want in a QB. He just needed more time learning to read defenses and have coaches work on getting him to stop throwing from his back foot. If you get that in the 4th or 5th that's a good risk.  

Newman a better athlete and leader than Brissett was coming out but really missed the past year which sucks, yet makes him intriguing. Someone will take a shot at him by the 2nd or 3rd.  Mond I watched in 3 games and while I see the potential, IMO you can't take him before the 4th.

 

If WFT doesn't bring in a big starter:

I wouldn't hate a Heinicke/Allen/Newman trio 

Brissett today would be a good mobile game manager as a starter. He would be an upgrade over Allen

How about a Heinicke/Brissett/Newman trio

 

Trask could fall into the discussion like Mond, I wouldn't take him before the 4th or 5th with mobility being a big drawback

Honestly, i like Newman and think he could be a steal. But his lack of experience scares me. I definitely wouldn't take him in the first. 

 

Mond and Trask are less likely to be good starters, and I'd bet that their being good early would depend more on having weapons, a good running game and a defense so they could just play qb without a heavy load. But with that option, i think Mond has the ability to be a Tyrod Taylor type to be decent enough to be good but not good enough to last. 

 

I think Newman will be sink or swim. He has all the ability but if he's thrown in early, there's so much he hasn't seen that could just overwhelm him. Like when Gregg Williams confused Haskins with Adams. But he has the potential to go earlier. 

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Honestly, i like Newman and think he could be a steal. But his lack of experience scares me. I definitely wouldn't take him in the first. 

 

Mond and Trask are less likely to be good starters, and I'd bet that their being good early would depend more on having weapons, a good running game and a defense so they could just play qb without a heavy load. But with that option, i think Mond has the ability to be a Tyrod Taylor type to be decent enough to be good but not good enough to last. 

 

I think Newman will be sink or swim. He has all the ability but if he's thrown in early, there's so much he hasn't seen that could just overwhelm him. Like when Gregg Williams confused Haskins with Adams. But he has the potential to go earlier. 

Oh I am not sure any of the three would be ready to start at least until late in the season. Yes Newman definitely need time to sit but also has the most potential 

 

GW just had to dangle something shiny in front of Haskins to confuse and distract him 

 

I don't mind your Tyrod comparison with Mond comparison but Mond is bigger has may have more potential. He was a little frustrating to watch but so was Taylor lol

[Malapropismic Depository]

52 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yep. 

 

 

 

 

The compliments on that video, by Panther fans praising him, actually mirror the same exact compliments by the Vikings fans on Viking videos, after they cut him.

With Heinicke it's like rinse and repeat.

[KillBill26]

4 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

You obviously don’t remember AtlantaSkinsfan, his unbeatable algorithm, and the next Brady...Greg McElroy. 

It's crazy to think: McElroy was drafted in 2011.  If brady had retired then, he would be a sure fire HOF.  But if he had started his career in 2011, and just looking at his resume from 2011-2020, he would be a sure fire HOF.  i don't know any other players that you could cut their careers in two and get two HOF resumes (jerry rice maybe?).  

 

Sorry this has nothing to do with the conversation at hand, but it's just crazy how prospects were compared to an all time great QB 10 years ago, and that player is still going strong, has gotten 4 more titles and is the reigning SB MVP. 

 

And I also agree with the sentiment raised by many others, we need to stop comparing prospects to Brady.  As Rick Pitino would say, Tom Brady isn't walking thru that door.

[KDawg]

Been hard to keep up here. My team is in season now and I'm trying to keep pace... but you guys move quicker than I realized. I'm just now hearing its likely we're releasing Smith (Which we knew was likely, but... first I've heard it from "sources")

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Will have to poke around on some other QB Guru lists and see where others have Mond listed, but I wonder if he's a name to keep in mind as we work through the draft. If the FO is comfortable with a mid-round prospect as we have heard, maybe Mond is someone they have in mind as a 2nd or 3rd rounder? I mean, based on Simms' list you'd expect Mond to go in the Top 12 ... given what we've heard so far I can't see that happening. BUT, if there are some teams that have this mindset it might/could push Fields and/or Lance down the board. We'll see though.

 

Seeing that list can't be bad for us though. Because, in my mind, it means that some people out there view one of the guys in the Round 2-4 discussion as a Top QB. Unless Simms' comes out and says he views Wilson/Lawrence as Top 5 picks but everyone else from there has a Round1-2 grade. Even still, it gives some hope to us being able to find a good player in the draft from the 19 spot. Not saying we pick Mond at #19, but I'd feel pretty good about Fields/Lance there ... or Mond in Round 3.

 

Also, I have been saying this repeatedly now for the last few weeks but I do wonder if Trey Lance's small school status AND rawness will drive him down the draft board. There is an inherent risk there, and while there is massive upside, teams might think twice about picking him in the Top 10-12. And if a majority of teams put Mac Jones and Fields above Lance, there's a solid chance he falls to #19. And if he falls to #19, that is a risk worth taking.

 

My dream-combo has always been Mariota and Lance. If we can end up getting Mariota as a free agent and draft Lance at #19 that would be unbelievable for both our short and long-term success.

Edited March 3, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

The thing to me about Mond is it depends on what games of him you watch.  He could look like a stud or dud depending on the game.   I haven't figured him out aside from saying he's consistently inconsistent.    If I take him or Newman it would be being in love with their intangibles -- but I got no idea what type of dudes they are.   But if Rivera takes one of them, I'd trust it.

 

As for Mac Jones, I can't make up my mind about him, I lean positive, but I'll say he's really developed fans among the mock draft community

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

As for Mac Jones, I can't make up my mind about him, I lean positive, but I'll say he's really developed fans among the mock draft community

 

Here's where I stand on these guys ... whoever Ron and Marty draft, I'll be happy.

 

Lance, Jones, FIelds at #19? Sign me up. I'd be least excited for Jones but there's been enough crazy talk about him lately that I would at least have some sense he could be a big hit.

 

Mond in Round 2? Maybe a bit early given where he's been slated to go before, but if Ron jumps on him there ... I'll be perfectly fine with that.

 

Mond, Newman, Trask, etc. in Round 3? Sure, again, I trust the FO.

 

Of course, I would feel better going into the draft with another solid QB with upside (Mariota?) on the roster. But if you told me today that we'd be going into the season with any of those QBs + Heinecke and Allen I'd feel okay about it, especially if it's in addition to a Rookie OT, WR and a FA WR, LB, FS, etc.

 

AKA not selling the farm to get in posiiton to draft one of them.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing to me about Mond is it depends on what games of him you watch.  He could look like a stud or dud depending on the game.   I haven't figured him out aside from saying he's consistently inconsistent.    If I take him or Newman it would be being in love with their intangibles -- but I got no idea what type of dudes they are.   But if Rivera takes one of them, I'd trust it.

 

As for Mac Jones, I can't make up my mind about him, I lean positive, but I'll say he's really developed fans among the mock draft community

Mac Jones mid range accuracy makes him a first rounder alone IMO. Not a top ten guy though. The premium of the position is what vaults these QB's up the board. 

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Here's where I stand on these guys ... whoever Ron and Marty draft, I'll be happy.

 

Lance, Jones, FIelds at #19? Sign me up. I'd be least excited for Jones but there's been enough crazy talk about him lately that I would at least have some sense he could be a big hit.

 

Mond in Round 2? Maybe a bit early given where he's been slated to go before, but if Ron jumps on him there ... I'll be perfectly fine with that.

 

Mond, Newman, Trask, etc. in Round 3? Sure, again, I trust the FO.

 

Of course, I would feel better going into the draft with another solid QB with upside (Mariota?) on the roster. But if you told me today that we'd be going into the season with any of those QBs + Heinecke and Allen I'd feel okay about it, especially if it's in addition to a Rookie OT, WR and a FA WR, LB, FS, etc.

 

AKA not selling the farm to get in posiiton to draft one of them.

If you are targeting Mond or Newman it might be worth trading back in the first and picking one of them late in the first. The 5th year option for a QB is a huge bonus to the team. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Mac Jones mid range accuracy makes him a first rounder alone IMO. Not a top ten guy though. The premium of the position is what vaults these QB's up the board. 

If you are targeting Mond or Newman it might be worth trading back in the first and picking one of them late in the first. The 5th year option for a QB is a huge bonus to the team. 

 

For sure. But I can't see them going that early. I'm not going to take one man's (Chris Simms') projections as gospel and assume Mond is a first rounder. It just gives me hope for a deep class and a chance that maybe this FO can nail someone they like or someone with upside without having to trade way up to do so, or lucking in to someone falling to #19.

But if this front office thinks Mond is a 1st round talent then there might be a fear that others also feel that way, and you don't want to risk missing out on the prospect.

 

You know what would be a total mind f***? Having Trey Lance or Justin Fields fall to pick #19 and trading back!

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

My dream-combo has always been Mariota and Lance. If we can end up getting Mariota as a free agent and draft Lance at #19 that would be unbelievable for both our short and long-term success.

Wow doe that seem high for Mond, especially over Fields. This will make @Thinking Skins feel vindicated for much of his views and research on Mond!

 

I guess I am shocked regarding Lance, he just doesn't much experience

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, DWinzit said:

Wow doe that seem high for Mond, especially over Fields. This will make @Thinking Skins feel vindicated for much of his views and research on Mond!

 

I guess I am shocked regarding Lance, he just doesn't much experience

 

Yep. I mean we'll see how it bears out. It just takes one team to take a "risk" in that situation. I still think Lance goes Top 10. But there's definitely a chance he slides a bit. If Jones ends up being the 4th QB to go then Lance starts to tumble a bit. But if I have a hard time seeing him fall past the 49ers and Patriots to get to us at #19. But crazier things have happened. NE might think he's too raw and want someone to come in and compete right away and maybe that means Bill passes on Lance to instead grab Trask or Mond in the 2nd. Maybe the 49ers take that same mindset. It isn't inconceivable that the 49ers decide a CB or OT + a 2nd or 3rd round QB > Lance ... or that Bill would pass up a Waddle or Pitts to take Lance ... and that he drops into range for us. It would be risky. But not as risky at pick #19, particularly if you (the team) thinks Heinecke/Allen would be good enough to start in 2021. And even more so if you have Mariota or Trubisky under contract on 1-2 year prove-it deals.

[Thinking Skins]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing to me about Mond is it depends on what games of him you watch.  He could look like a stud or dud depending on the game.   I haven't figured him out aside from saying he's consistently inconsistent.    If I take him or Newman it would be being in love with their intangibles -- but I got no idea what type of dudes they are.   But if Rivera takes one of them, I'd trust it.

 

As for Mac Jones, I can't make up my mind about him, I lean positive, but I'll say he's really developed fans among the mock draft community

My opinion comes from looking at (and trying to understand) stats, not video. But It seems like Kellen Mond is more scary to me than a Lance or Fields because he seems to start running to make a big play running, whereas Lance and Fields can do the Russel Wilson thing where they run to create a better passing lane. This is how I'm interpreting the ypa thingie. and its not just with Mond, but with other QBs who have put up similar numbers in college. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Owls0325]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

It's a interesting list to say the least. However his previous rankings has had some success, including last year being particularly high on Herbert, ranking Mahomes at the best QB in the 2017 class and in the 2018 class he had Jackson and Allen as his number #1 and #2. 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

Damn, Chris Simms's list this year is wild. Way different than what I saw... I think so much of our opinions are skewed by the media we don't even realize it and form biases while watching. 

[Koolblue13]

I like Mac Jones

[mistertim]

20 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Mond at 7.1 YPA and only 63% completion percentage draws some pause from me. 

 

Meanwhile, Mac Jones has 11.2 YPA to go along with 77% completion percentage. That's actually nuts honestly. 

 

17 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah those numbers are scary for Mond and great for Jones. My problem is how will Jones do with a pass rush. Mond may check down more often and not really be more than Alex Smith from 2018 if we're lucky. But Jones may get Derek Carred or Patrick Ramseyed

 

Couple of things:  1) Personally, I tend to pay more attention to Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. 2) Historically it doesn't seem to have a big correlation to NFL success. I think completion percentage is a decent stat to help judge but still far from flawless. Mond is a little on the lower side of comp % compared to the below guys, but not by that much (and in the case of Allen, much better).

 

Current top NFL QBs and their AY/A + completion % in their final college season:

 

Aaron Rodgers: 8.5 AY/A , 66.1%

Patrick Mahomes: 9.2 AY/A , 65.7%

Josh Allen: 6.9 AY/A , 56.3%

Deshaun Watson: 8.0 AY/A , 67.0%

Russel Wilson: 11.8 AY/A , 72.8% (took a HUGE leap from when he played at NC State)

Tom Brady: 7.7 AY/A , 61.0%

Lamar Jackson: 8.7 AY/A , 59.1%

Ryan Tannehill: 6.9 AY/A , 61.6%

Justin Herbert: 9.0 AY/A, 66.8%

 

Kellen Mond's AY/A this past season was 8.5 , with 63.3% completion

 

 

Now, a certain amount of Y/A, AY/A, and completion percentage also depends on the system and the talent around the QB. To be honest, I tend to be almost as wary of guys with Madden joystick numbers as guys with decent but not ludicrous stats so I try to watch film and see the system and how many of those were, for example, slants or screens that were taken to the house by a great WR (Dwayne Haskins benefitted from this a lot).

 

I'm not completely sold on Mond but I'm also not super concerned about his completion percentage itself, and I like the fact that over his 4 seasons it consistently improved. To me it's his traits that really stand out, though as others have noted he can tend to be a bit streaky. I personally prefer him a bit over Newman and way more than Trask who I think is very overrated.

 

Mac Jones I'm "ok" on, but I still think the limitations of his traits will limit his ceiling in the NFL. He was also surrounded by an absolutely stacked cast that IMO helped disguise some of his physical shortcomings. 

 

 

 

** EDITED to reflect that the stats are "Adjusted Yards Per Attempt" not "Air" **

Edited March 3, 2021 by mistertim

[skinny21]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing to me about Mond is it depends on what games of him you watch.  He could look like a stud or dud depending on the game.   I haven't figured him out aside from saying he's consistently inconsistent.    If I take him or Newman it would be being in love with their intangibles -- but I got no idea what type of dudes they are.   But if Rivera takes one of them, I'd trust it.

 

As for Mac Jones, I can't make up my mind about him, I lean positive, but I'll say he's really developed fans among the mock draft community

To me, it would depend on whether his consistency improved.  If it didn’t (I know his completion % improved, which is a good sign, but that’s one data point), then the 4 year starter status actually hurts him.  At that point, I look harder at the guys with lower floors/fewer starts with the hope time/experience/coaches can improve their consistency.

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Here's where I stand on these guys ... whoever Ron and Marty draft, I'll be happy.

 

Lance, Jones, FIelds at #19? Sign me up. I'd be least excited for Jones but there's been enough crazy talk about him lately that I would at least have some sense he could be a big hit.

 

Mond in Round 2? Maybe a bit early given where he's been slated to go before, but if Ron jumps on him there ... I'll be perfectly fine with that.

 

Mond, Newman, Trask, etc. in Round 3? Sure, again, I trust the FO.

 

Of course, I would feel better going into the draft with another solid QB with upside (Mariota?) on the roster. But if you told me today that we'd be going into the season with any of those QBs + Heinecke and Allen I'd feel okay about it, especially if it's in addition to a Rookie OT, WR and a FA WR, LB, FS, etc.

 

AKA not selling the farm to get in posiiton to draft one of them.

 

I am with you on the general sentiment of trusting whatever they do.  The X factor for players and that goes double for QBs are intangibles.  And the FO would have a much better idea of that than we would.

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

 

Mac Jones I'm "ok" on, but I still think the limitations of his traits will limit his ceiling in the NFL. He was also surrounded by an absolutely stacked cast that IMO helped disguise some of his physical shortcomings. 

 

 

 

If we running with AY/A than Mac Jones numbers are sick.   12.8 /77.4%.  

Edited March 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Couple of things:  1) Personally, I tend to pay more attention to Air Yards Per Attempt. 2) Historically it doesn't seem to have a big correlation to NFL success. I think completion percentage is a decent stat to help judge but still far from flawless. Mond is a little on the lower side of comp % compared to the below guys, but not by that much (and in the case of Allen, much better).

 

Where were you able to get air yards per attempt? I was looking for this but PFR doesn't have it. I was looking at other sites but kinda gave up. 

 

I think I'm going to go back and update my model to account for year to year stats, but I won't have time to do it before this year's draft. I should probably be looking at Ian Brook as well because I've heard good things about him and he has a lot of the things I'd look for in a QB, but he is on the small side. 

[ODU AGGIE]

What the heck is everybody thinking? Mac Jones must be the most terribly undervalued QB in the history of college football. If he is still available at pick # 19, I will puke if WFT does not grab him in a heart beat. I realize that he does not fit the mold of NFL trending QBs, but so what -- neither does Tom Brady. Jones led his team to an undefeated season and a national championship. He completed 77.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 TDs with only 4 interceptions, averaging 358 yards per game and posting a passer rating of 203.1. He should never be available at 19 -- in fact, RR should trade up to get him. Some time in the future, I am confident he will be in the NFL Hall of Fame with multiple Super Bowl wins, and every team that passes on him will forever regret it.

 

The most common "hits" I hear on him concern his supporting cast. He plays for Alabama! He has great receivers! Well, good lord, did anybody ever stop to think that a primary reason Alabama was so good was that they had a premier QB, or that the reason the wide receivers look so good is that he throws them catchable balls? 

 

I really just don't get it. If I had the first pick and had any reasonable need for a QB, you could put it in the bank that Mac Jones would be the first name called in this year's draft.

 

OK. I vented. That is all.

 

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]