Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[CapsSkins]

If Dak for some reason doesn't get tagged we will sign him and we will pay him $40M and he will be our QB1.

 

I thought there was no way he was going to hit FA, but every day that we get closer to the tag deadline (March 9) the more it starts to feel like a possibility. Of course, even if they intend to tag him, they might be focused on trying to work out a LTD and avoid the hassle of the tag if possible.  But still... something to watch IMO.

 

I don't think we're going to make any sort of move at QB until Dak gets tagged or we pass the tag deadline.

[88Comrade2000]

10 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

I know that statement doesn't make sense in light of other things.

But if you look at that scenario alone ;

Letting go a successful veteran, to instead go with what will likely be 3 or 4 unproven, extremely young QB's in camp (Allen, Heinicke, Montez, and Rookie Draft Pick)

 

 

We are releasing Alex because he can no longer play.   He can't even last a half season, much less a full season.  All you have to do, is hit him near his injury and he will miss games.

If the Team felt Alex could still play; they would go into the season with him as starter.

 

Any team that does end up signing Alex, will find out that Alex can't stay healthy.  Alex will come to the realization when he misses most of the games of the 2021 season.  Let's just hope he doesn't further injure himself, while coming to that realization.

[mistertim]

36 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

If Dak for some reason doesn't get tagged we will sign him and we will pay him $40M and he will be our QB1.

 

I thought there was no way he was going to hit FA, but every day that we get closer to the tag deadline (March 9) the more it starts to feel like a possibility. Of course, even if they intend to tag him, they might be focused on trying to work out a LTD and avoid the hassle of the tag if possible.  But still... something to watch IMO.

 

I don't think we're going to make any sort of move at QB until Dak gets tagged or we pass the tag deadline.

 

That's one hell of a contract and gamble for a guy who can still hardly walk after a devastating injury.

 

Nobody is going to know for a few months if Dak's ankle is going to be healed enough to play and/or if he'll still be the same guy as before. 

 

I'm guessing Dallas will tag him and then wait to see how his recovery goes. If they tag him they then have until mid July to either keep him on the tag, trade him, rescind the tag, or work out a long term deal.

 

If his recovery isn't going as well as hoped or they have doubts I'm guessing they'll try to move him for a couple of 1st round picks. I doubt they'll just rescind the tag and let him go without compensation. But if other teams know his progress isn't going as well as hoped, they would probably balk at giving up that much draft capital. So who knows.

 

Either way, I see almost no way he hits FA. And even if he does somehow, a team is going to have to take an enormous gamble if they give him the money he wants, considering that nobody will know for some time whether he'll even be able to play for sure.

 

It just makes zero sense for Dallas to let him hit FA when they could tag him and then take a wait and see approach.

[CapsSkins]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That's one hell of a contract and gamble for a guy who can still hardly walk after a devastating injury.

 

Nobody is going to know for a few months if Dak's ankle is going to be healed enough to play and/or if he'll still be the same guy as before. 

 

I'm guessing Dallas will tag him and then wait to see how his recovery goes. If they tag him they then have until mid July to either keep him on the tag, trade him, rescind the tag, or work out a long term deal.

 

If his recovery isn't going as well as hoped or they have doubts I'm guessing they'll try to move him for a couple of 1st round picks. I doubt they'll just rescind the tag and let him go without compensation. But if other teams know his progress isn't going as well as hoped, they would probably balk at giving up that much draft capital. So who knows.

 

Either way, I see almost no way he hits FA. And even if he does somehow, a team is going to have to take an enormous gamble if they give him the money he wants, considering that nobody will know for some time whether he'll even be able to play for sure.

 

It just makes zero sense for Dallas to let him hit FA when they could tag him and then take a wait and see approach.

 

I agree that I think he'll get tagged, which has been my thought until now. Still, we're now halfway through the tag period (Feb 23 - Mar 9) and he hasn't been tagged yet. And every day we get closer, the chance they don't tag him goes up just a smidge.

 

Again, I think he'll ultimately get tagged. But I also think Ron, Marty & Martin are monitoring this situation very closely. 

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, Jericho said:

I'd also add that any QB you draft after Round 1, you are drafting to be a back-up. That does not mean they HAVE to be a back-up. But that's the expectation. Sure, once in a blue moon those picks pan out to be decent to good players. But it's pretty rare occurrence and no team should be banking on those picks as a real plan. It's more of a bonus if it turns out that way. So when people talk about guys like Mond or Trask or Newman. None of those are really expected starters. They're basically back-ups that you take a flyer on and maybe get lucky (but probably don't). 

True, but we have had success in finding starters; at least for a short while.

 

Gus Ferrotte beat out Heath Shuler. Kirk Cousins beat out RG3.  It could happen that a lower round QB pick; after spending time on the bench develops into a starting QB.  

 

 

Dak wants Patrick Mahomes money.  He isn't a QB of that caliber and any team that gives him that; whether it's Dallas or someone else, will regret it in the long run.

Patrick in his 4 years at Chiefs QB:

 

Year 1: Sat as a rookie, while Alex was the starter.

Year 2: Took Chiefs to AFC Championship game

Year 3: Won Superbowl.

Year 4: Lost Superbowl.

 

Dak  had a record nowhere near that and he wants to be paid like Patrick. 

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Rdskns2000

[TheShredder]

2 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

If Dak for some reason doesn't get tagged we will sign him and we will pay him $40M and he will be our QB1.

 

I thought there was no way he was going to hit FA, but every day that we get closer to the tag deadline (March 9) the more it starts to feel like a possibility. Of course, even if they intend to tag him, they might be focused on trying to work out a LTD and avoid the hassle of the tag if possible.  But still... something to watch IMO.

 

I don't think we're going to make any sort of move at QB until Dak gets tagged or we pass the tag deadline.

Dak wants to get tagged a second time because he then has any team that signs him by the balls. Dallas has to tag him or pay him +40M a year for 4 yrs and guarantee half of it. 

He's getting tagged.  It's the Cousins move and it works if you don't get hurt.  Possibly works even when you do because the owner is an elderly dementia patient with a billion dollars.

[Skinsinparadise]

Watched Sims' video description.  As for Mac Jones he stressed some of what I have touted: his quick feet, accuracy.  Some have argued with me that Trask is more accurate but IMO that isn't so.    Sims goes he can make all the throws.  He gets knocked because Alabama is so good and he doesn't make the sexy off platform throws.  He processes the game quickly, reminds him of Burrow on that front. Though he seems to like Burrow more.  He said his efficiency is machine like.   He's NFL ready now. 

 

My take on Jones I liked what Sims mentioned and I add that as I mentioned many times love how Jones uses his eyes/body language to manipulate defenses.  He sells play action well.  I am still undecided and still lean positive.  I still wouldn't hate it if they took him.  So I am in the same place but my positive lean which I've mentioned is perhaps more positive.  I got to give some props to Sims considering most of his unconventional picks at QBs in the past have panned out.  And the fact that he wasn't sold on Darnold coming out of that draft props Sims up in my eyes now that I've studied Darnold much deeper than I did previously.

 

Kellen Mond.   Said he thinks NFL team contacts will probably blow up his phone today for putting him on people's radar.    Fast release.  Consistent thrower -- more consistent than Lawrence.   Explosive arm.  He's robotic in his delivery reminds him of Kaepernick on that front -- that was his shot at him.  And he wishes he'd play more backyard football -- sits in the pocket too much.   He can make every type of throw like Mac Jones.    Throws well in the run.   Can throw in tight windows.    

 

Personally I haven't studied Mond but watched him in real time numerous games.   I'll go back and study him now. 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF's take on Mond

 

 

[redskinss]

7 hours ago, mistertim said:

I'm guessing Dallas will tag him and then wait to see how his recovery goes. If they tag him they then have until mid July to either keep him on the tag, trade him, rescind the tag, or work out a long term deal.

They can't rescind the tag if he signs it though and I'd imagine he would very quickly, that's where it's a bit of a gamble. 

If he's not recovering they're at least on the hook for this year's salary and it's a big one.

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF's take on Mac Jones

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

PFF's take on Mac Jones

Give me this guy.  Give him another weapon at WR with McLaurin and another TE along with a LOT he'll put up some points on the board.  I hope he's our target.  Been keen on his leadership and ball placement skills a long time.   He has enough quickness to elude the pass rush and make time for WRs to get open.  

12 minutes ago, redskinss said:

They can't rescind the tag if he signs it though and I'd imagine he would very quickly, that's where it's a bit of a gamble. 

If he's not recovering they're at least on the hook for this year's salary and it's a big one.

Unless rules have changed and square me away if I am wrong Carolina did and that's how we got Norman.

[redskinss]

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Unless rules have changed and square me away if I am wrong Carolina did and that's how we got Norman

If I'm not mistaken, Carolina tagged Norman but he never signed the tag because he wanted a long term deal and that's why Carolina was able to rescind it, because it wasn't signed. 

If a player signs the franchise tag the team can't rescind it.

[Jericho]

8 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I thought there was no way he was going to hit FA, but every day that we get closer to the tag deadline (March 9) the more it starts to feel like a possibility. Of course, even if they intend to tag him, they might be focused on trying to work out a LTD and avoid the hassle of the tag if possible.  But still... something to watch IMO.

 

Generally speaking, teams don't tag players until the last second. That's why there will be a flurry of tag news on March 8 and 9. The fact Prescott has not been tagged yet means zero. 

 

Unrelated, but Allen Robinson will very likely be tagged too.

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Jericho

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

Give me this guy.  Give him another weapon at WR with McLaurin and another TE along with a LOT he'll put up some points on the board.  I hope he's our target.  Been keen on his leadership and ball placement skills a long time.   He has enough quickness to elude the pass rush and make time for WRs to get open.  

 

If you want a shot at Mac, you better hope teams see him more like me than you. 😀   For me I see things I like and I see some things to make me pause and wonder.  I've probably put up more assessents (mine and others) of Mac Jones on the draft thread than anyone, and certainly more positive than negative.  And I'd bet I am the one of the few here who has seen Mac play live.   Yet, he's still a hard guy for me to figure out but lean positive.

 

It's interesting that Breer (who is often deadly accurate about the draft) said many of the people he has spoken to the NFL see Jones as a 2nd rounder.  Yet, the mock drafters see him now as a high first rounder.  Maybe it plays out like Haskins/Drew Lock in 2019?  Mocks had both go early.  But apparently personnel guys graded them lower than that.  I am not comparing the players though.  I like Mac Jones easily over Haskins.  But my point is if personnel teams are as high on Mac as you are, no chance we land him.  You got to hope that its closer to what Breer is hearing if you want him at 19. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Yeah it’ll be really interesting to see how Jones stacks up against the others when the draft unfolds. Will Jones go Top 10 or late 1st? Same with Lance. Do teams view his raw skills as being top 10 worthy or does he fall? 
 

Either way unless 5 QBs go top 15 there’s a chance one of them is there at 19. I’d be okay with either one (Jones/Lance) tbh. 

[CurseReversed]

I cant see how jones goes past all those qb hungry teams ahead of us.  QB market is way too dry and Jones is way too good of an investment on a rookie deal.  I hope I am wrong though.   

[Thinking Skins]

@SkinsinparadiseThanks for those pulls on Mond and Jones. I still like Mond over Jones based mostly on experience (funny because my analytic research is showing that experience doesn't seem to be the factor I'm saying it is). That said, there was a discussion a few pages back about air yards per attempt.

 - I'm looking at the average depth of targets and see that Mond has a number of 9.4 whereas Jones has 8.8. Not a huge difference, but I wonder how this relates to air yards per attempt.

 - I know they say that Mond doesn't attack deep enough which I criticized myself, and his completion percentage in the high 50s but not attacking deep doesn't sound like a good combination.

 - Same percentage of turnover worthy plays at 2.5 %

 - Jones leads the NCAA in deep play yards, but was second in screen yards. Mond only had 173. 

 - I'm also looking at Mond's drop rate of 7.8 vs Jones's of 4.0 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Man, PFF Is rough - Mond's NFL comparison is Kevin Hogan.  🤣

[Thinking Skins]

One more thing. Its interesting that they put up Kevin Hogan as a comparable to Mond. I don't disagree with this and their college stats are very similar. Hogan went in the 5th for comparison sake. I think Andy Dalton is a comparable (not sure what Dalton or Hogan looked like on a similar PFF scouting report). 

Here's a look at the three QBs 

 

Mond: 801 / 1358 (59%), 9661 yards, 7.1 ypa, 71 TDs, 27 INTs, 438 rushes, 1609 rushing yards, 3.7 ypa

Hogan: 727 / 1103 (65.9%), 9385 yards, 8.5 ypa,  75 TDs, 29 INTs, 315 rushes, 1249 yards, 4.0 yards ypa

Dalton: 812 / 1317 (61.7&) 10314 yards, 7.8 ypa, 71 TDs, 30 INTs, 413 rushes, 1611 yars, 3.9 ypa

 

Now Dalton was a second rounder who had a much better career than Hogan. I'm not saying Mond will be either one, but I think these two QBs give a decent range for the possibilities for Mond. There are other QBs you could throw in there like Tyrod Taylor (worse passer than Mond, but better runner than Mond) or Daniel Jones (worse passer than Mond and a worse runner than Jones). Three of these 4 guys have had respectable careers with 2 being starters for some time. All these guys had similar college stats and weren't really hyped coming out of College (although some liked Jones for what he did at Duke). 

 

I don't think he's a first round guy but I could easily see his range being anywhere in the second to fifth range. I wouldn't be excited about getting him in the second, but a third on him I think would be of value. 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Man, PFF Is rough - Mond's NFL comparison is Kevin Hogan.  🤣

PFF doesnt like Mond at all. I watched their top QB list last night. Now I will say I rarely agree with PFF. But I have some concerns about him as well. He is flat footed in the pocket and robotic as others have said. That will need to be coached out of him. I disagree with them about his accuracy though. He is accurate in the mid range. Not as accurate as Jones. But good regardless. He also had more drops than Jones. But lets not kid ourselves. The Texas A&M media was ready to be rid of him after the Alabama game just 5 months ago. Yes he recovered and had a good season. But this article tells you what they thought of him at that point:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/tamu-football/tamu-football-is-it-time-to-move-on-from-kellen-mond/

 

"It’s something that Aggies fans have become all too familiar with while watching Mond the past three seasons. The offense lost all life and was only revived in garbage time. Texas A&M was held without a touchdown from 14:14 in the second quarter until 7:25 in the fourth. Not exactly a recipe for victory."

[mistertim]

There are a few things that worry me in the PFF analysis of Jones. 

 

Somewhat weak arm along with tons of throws to open WRs in an offense absolutely stacked with NFL level talent, only 44 throws into tight windows all season, and underthrows that he got bailed out on (which I saw as well when watching him). I'd be worried about his ability to get the ball into NFL size windows on intermediate range throws as well as his ability to make passes that require the QB to really drive the ball, like mid to deep out routes, etc.

 

He still has some very good traits. Pretty good under pressure, extremely accurate on short passes, seems to be a good leader who guys like playing with, good football IQ. But I could see teams passing on him in the 1st due to his lack of physical traits.

 

And this is completely subjective but regarding their comparison to Burrow and how Jones has the stats but not the hype...Jones just never "popped" to me on film. I remember watching a bunch of cutups of Burrow's games last year and multiple times going "Holy crap, that was an amazing play/pass" and I didn't really have that with Jones for the most part. It was more "This guy looks like a solid QB who runs this offense efficiently."

[Fat Stupid Loser]

9 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

If Dak for some reason doesn't get tagged we will sign him and we will pay him $40M and he will be our QB1.

 

I thought there was no way he was going to hit FA, but every day that we get closer to the tag deadline (March 9) the more it starts to feel like a possibility. Of course, even if they intend to tag him, they might be focused on trying to work out a LTD and avoid the hassle of the tag if possible.  But still... something to watch IMO.

 

I don't think we're going to make any sort of move at QB until Dak gets tagged or we pass the tag deadline.

40M???

Curious where you were on Cousins.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

@SkinsinparadiseThanks for those pulls on Mond and Jones. I still like Mond over Jones based mostly on experience (funny because my analytic research is showing that experience doesn't seem to be the factor I'm saying it is). That said, there was a discussion a few pages back about air yards per attempt.

 - I'm looking at the average depth of targets and see that Mond has a number of 9.4 whereas Jones has 8.8. Not a huge difference, but I wonder how this relates to air yards per attempt.

 - I know they say that Mond doesn't attack deep enough which I criticized myself, and his completion percentage in the high 50s but not attacking deep doesn't sound like a good combination.

 - Same percentage of turnover worthy plays at 2.5 %

 - Jones leads the NCAA in deep play yards, but was second in screen yards. Mond only had 173. 

 - I'm also looking at Mond's drop rate of 7.8 vs Jones's of 4.0 

 

I am definitely Mac Jones > Kellen Mond.  But they both have something in common for me, hard for me to come up with a definitive opinion (at least in my own mind) about either.  I wouldn't hate either pick whether its Jones in the first or Mond later in the draft.

 

As I've been saying the key X factor most coaches say with QBs is intangibles.  Arians says that along with the ability to process fast.  To those points I was just listening to Nagy who runs the senior bowls.  He said Jones is one of the best (and hands down the best this year) he's had as for processing plays/learning the play book and adapting that to the field.  He said he's super bright and instinctive.  He also said he was the one dude he saw studying at midnight on their grounds for the next day. 

 

Nagy last year said before the draft Herbert > Tua.  One of the dudes who touted McLaurin and Gibson hard before the draft.  He gets a birds eye view of some of these prospects.  He's big on Mac Jones and thinks no shot he falls to 19.  Will see. 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As I've been saying the key X factor most coaches say with QBs is intangibles.  Arians says that along with the ability to process fast.  To those points I was just listening to Nagy who runs the senior bowls.  He said Jones is one of the best (and hands down the best this year) he's had as for processing plays/learning the play book and adapting that to the field.  He said he's super bright and instinctive.  He also said he was the one dude he saw studying at midnight on their grounds for the next day. 

 

I believe this, but I also think that there's just a certain amount of experience that he needs. Its not that Jones can't be successful but its about the looks he's seen so far. How many confusing blitzes has he seen? How many times has he gone against a defense a second or third time, after they've maybe learned some of his tricks? How many times did he go against somebody without his top weapon? Its not just an anti-Alabama bias like some like state. 

 

That said, Jones did look good in the Shrine Game / Senior Bowl (I think it was the later but I'm not sure). But when Jones got hurt, Mond won the MVP. He didn't have an all star type performance but he didn't look like he didn't belong. 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I believe this, but I also think that there's just a certain amount of experience that he needs. Its not that Jones can't be successful but its about the looks he's seen so far. How many confusing blitzes has he seen? How many times has he gone against a defense a second or third time, after they've maybe learned some of his tricks? How many times did he go against somebody without his top weapon? Its not just an anti-Alabama bias like some like state. 

 

That said, Jones did look good in the Shrine Game / Senior Bowl (I think it was the later but I'm not sure). But when Jones got hurt, Mond won the MVP. He didn't have an all star type performance but he didn't look like he didn't belong. 

 

What sells me on Jones some is he seems so advanced as for how he used his eyes and body language.  Sam Darnold has been in the league now 3 years and if you watch him he telegraphs his throws.  Darnold's talent is making off script plays especially when things break down but that to me looks more about instinct and athleticism than smarts.

 

I said this two years ago after watching 5 Rosen college games back to back (when he was on the trade block) which was Rosen doesn't play like a smart QB.  Rosen is clearly a smart person.  But being a smart QB is a different story.  Rosen just made too many stupid plays to my eyes for me to be sold on him as a decision maker.    He got away with a lot of them because of poor defending.  When I've gone back at watching Darnold, I feel the same way about him.  He to my eyes doesn't look like a QB who plays smart whether its decision making or avoiding staring at targets, looking off safeties, etc.

 

I am not 100% sold on Mac.  But when Nagy among others play up his intelligence it fits some other things about his game.   So it makes me forgive his lack of experience more.   He has a quick release and makes quick decisions and at a minimum to me he's thinking more about certain things more than guys like Darnold albeit he doesn't have the same level of experience. 

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise