Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[FootballZombie]

22 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

They don't want to lose him. So, they will wait it out and hope he changes his mind. I think a trade right before the season is unlikely because they wouldn't get much. If he were available; there would be teams that would trade for him, even at that late date. 2022 seems more likely. Why would Houston do that, either a right before the season or 22; it's Houston. They are that incompetent.

 

I think it gets done right before FA, or during the initial phases of it.

 

From a Hou perspective, they would want to do it before the draft. That would allow the team to trade for actual slotted draft picks, rather than just a package of unknown future picks. That allows you to have a much clearer idea of what you are receiving, and leaves a lot less to chance. Waiting to deal him until after the draft would be beyond incompetence, as you eliminate your chances to both improve your roster this year via extra draft picks and risk not getting a known asset. Especially in Hou case where they are already missing the top end of their draft and have no money. With Bill gone I have a hard time seeing Hou screwing the pooch that badly. That would be a move that is even worse than the issues that have brought them to this point.

 

From a Watson angle, waiting until just before the draft does not work out in his best interest. I’m sure he is well aware that any team that acquires him will be dishing out high end picks to get him. That means the best way for a team to improve, post Watson acquisition, will be FA.

 

FA is before the draft, and if Watson isn’t traded until then, a lot of impact FAs will be well off the market. I think the closer we get to FA, the more internal pressure Watson will put on his own organization to deal him. Ditto the outside pressure from other organizations who want to build their offseason around Watson before FA begins. So far Watson has been pretty quiet on the whole situation, not doing a ton to fan the flames. That can change quickly.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't really eat much meat.

Stopped reading. Analysis can’t be trusted. 

[88Comrade2000]

23 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I wonder if the stories we're hearing about Lance and Fields are in any way similar to how we heard stories about Haskins. According to Jay, Dan had his mind made up on Haskins 6 months before the draft. I wonder if the same is true for Lance or Fields. Both of these are QBs I like, though Fields more than Lance. I feel like Lance could turn into this year's version of a Jackson or RG3 or a Vick or a Vince Young, more athletic and more of a runner than a passer right now. But I think Fields could be more of a Prescott or Watson or into the mold of the more athletic QB who can create plays with both his arm and his legs. But the problem I have with both these guys is their experience. 

 

But I really wonder if Dan has already told Ron that we're drafting these guys if they're there at 19 or if they're working on trade ups to certain spots in the draft if one of them drops. Its weird listening to that Jay interview and then thinking about these "reports" coming out about the park right now. I really wonder what they're trying to tell us. 

If that were the case, then why do have a 3 headed front office? 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

“Appreciate you”  being the mature one in this stand-off and squashing it. My bad, once again. 

 

 

Woah... which two points would this be? 
 

I feel a conversation cannon balling into a pool of nuances, layers, timing, and motives. 
 

But hey, it’s the off season, perfect time to engage. 

 

 

It's two points that were belabored over many times in the FO thread when Bruce was here.  But no need to bring back all that nonsense.

 

But my point was really who gives a rats behind who guesses right and who guesses wrong.  If someone here tells me almost every take they've had on a situation or a player they scoped out in advance has been correct, I won't believe it.  If Parcells goes the best of the best get 50% of their calls right -- tough for me to buy that us here on the board are just smarter than the rest of the NFL and nail it so much better than the professionals. 

 

In my book, I think the best go anyone can do as for trying to match the professionals is taking shots at predicting players on the draft thread.  I don't always agree with all the takes on the draft thread but I respect everyone there for trying because it takes more work to do and is harder to do than predicting veterans with established track records. 

 

So for me at least I don't care that much about guessing right or not, and I've had some really good takes on college players who have panned out like our very own Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson.  And I also got some very wrong.  But my ego isn't driven by what I guess right or wrong.  I am just having fun talking football, i don't take it that seriously. 😀

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

40 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

tit would be hard to for many to avoid (i could do it easy )

 

all good  

You’re all over the place today.

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

If that were the case, then why do have a 3 headed front office? 

i have no idea. I'd like to think they are here to talk sense into Snyder, or maybe to do the rest of the draft, or to work out a better trade than the RG3 or McNabb trades, but I refuse to believe that Snyder's not involved. So the question becomes how involved and who is his guy? 

 

Maybe its a debate with the FO and Snyder. Maybe Snyder likes Lance and the FO likes Fields (or vice versa). Maybe Ron has the three tiered front office to try to fight this battle for him because Ron has to do more than just deal with a meddling owner. 

[88Comrade2000]

51 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I think it gets done right before FA, or during the initial phases of it.

 

 

 

From a Hou perspective, they would want to do it before the draft. That would allow the team to trade for actual slotted draft picks, rather than just a package of unknown future picks. That allows you to have a much clearer idea of what you are receiving, and leaves a lot less to chance. Waiting to deal him until after the draft would be beyond incompetence, as you eliminate your chances to both improve your roster this year via extra draft picks and risk not getting a known asset. Especially in Hou case where they are already missing the top end of their draft and have no money. With Bill gone I have a hard time seeing Hou screwing the pooch that badly. That would be a move that is even worse than the issues that have brought them to this point.

 

 

 

From a Watson angle, waiting until just before the draft does not work out in his best interest. I’m sure he is well aware that any team that acquires him will be dishing out high end picks to get him. That means the best way for a team to improve, post Watson acquisition, will be FA.

 

 

 

FA is before the draft, and if Watson isn’t traded until then, a lot of impact FAs will be well off the market. I think the closer we get to FA, the more internal pressure Watson will put on his own organization to deal him. Ditto the outside pressure from other organizations who want to build their offseason around Watson before FA begins. So far Watson has been pretty quiet on the whole situation, not doing a ton to fan the flames. That can change quickly.

 

Which is why a right before the season is unlikely but I do think Houston not doing anything until 22, is a strong possibility.  Their owner and Easterby will not want Watson to get the better of them. They are that stupid. They will sign a stopgap person early in free agency to hedge their bets.

 

Houston can get a deal right now from Carolina and Denver. The want him back, so they will wait him out and only trade him; if they have no choice.

 

 

Also, why I think the owner will play hardball; his loyalty to Esterby. A big source of tension in Houston is him but his power is growing; as more if his people is being hired.  So, if the owner is headstrong with him; he’ll be headstrong with Watson.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Rdskns2000

[Skinsinparadise]

Some here might pertain to the QB spot.  Keim has said multiple times it might be on the table to trade a D lineman, he didn't say when whether this year or next.

 

 

...."They're not going to be able to keep all those guys," one league source said.

"They will have to be judicious in which ones they keep," said salary-cap expert Joel Corry, who is a former agent who works for CBS Sports and hosts a podcast devoted to salary-cap issues.

Washington's plan could start this offseason with tackle Jonathan Allen, who would like an extension rather than playing on the fifth-year option in 2021. There hasn't been movement on a deal, though some of that stems from teams still not knowing the salary-cap ceiling.

 

Also, as one league source said, Washington must first figure out its quarterback situation and how much money will be allocated before moving on to bigger deals. Allen's side could wait to see what free-agent tackle Leonard Williams receives as well.

Washington coach Ron Rivera values building the lines and, therefore, keeping them together as long as possible. Rivera has mentioned both lines needing to be the team's foundation. He's not alone in that thinking.

 

"I'm a big believer that you start building defenses from the front back," said Washington's new senior vice president of player personnel Marty Hurney. "If quarterbacks don't have time to throw the ball it makes it a lot easier on the back end."

 

But when it comes to roster building, Corry said, Washington needs to "look to San Francisco as a bit of a model."

Indeed, the 49ers accrued comparable line talent, building a defensive line using first-round picks on Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas and Nick Bosa. They also added Dee Ford in free agency. Last offseason, they traded Buckner, entering his option year and with Armstead a free agent, to Indianapolis for a first-round pick. They then re-signed Armstead.

 

...Washington can bring this group back in 2021. But at some point, decisions will have to be made.

"If you keep all those guys in the middle," said one executive, "then you'll lose one of those edge ones."

Edited February 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

30 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I wonder if the stories we're hearing about Lance and Fields are in any way similar to how we heard stories about Haskins. According to Jay, Dan had his mind made up on Haskins 6 months before the draft. I wonder if the same is true for Lance or Fields. Both of these are QBs I like, though Fields more than Lance. I feel like Lance could turn into this year's version of a Jackson or RG3 or a Vick or a Vince Young, more athletic and more of a runner than a passer right now. But I think Fields could be more of a Prescott or Watson or into the mold of the more athletic QB who can create plays with both his arm and his legs. But the problem I have with both these guys is their experience. 

 

But I really wonder if Dan has already told Ron that we're drafting these guys if they're there at 19 or if they're working on trade ups to certain spots in the draft if one of them drops. Its weird listening to that Jay interview and then thinking about these "reports" coming out about the park right now. I really wonder what they're trying to tell us. 

 

IMO both Fields and Lance are WAY better passers than Jackson, Vick, or Young coming out. RG3 was a very good passer coming out...his problems were elsewhere. The only comparison is the fact that Lance also runs a lot. Fields doesn't even run very much.

 

That being said, Lance is still somewhat raw, and is coming from a small school program along with only one year of college starting experience. He's a guy I'd sit for a year unless he absolutely blew me away in camp with how fast he picked things up and could run the offense.

[Jumbo]

17 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

You’re all over the place today.

 

 

trapped in a world i never made

 

 

 

 

(also spaced out on cold meds)

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO both Fields and Lance are WAY better passers than Jackson, Vick, or Young coming out. RG3 was a very good passer coming out...his problems were elsewhere. The only comparison is the fact that Lance also runs a lot. Fields doesn't even run very much.

 

That being said, Lance is still somewhat raw, and is coming from a small school program along with only one year of college starting experience. He's a guy I'd sit for a year unless he absolutely blew me away in camp with how fast he picked things up and could run the offense.

I think the thing about Lance that you don't mention is that he appareantly has such really good study habits and a hard worker. I like similar things about Fields and especially what Meyer tells the press about his leadership. Honestly, I wonder if Snyder was talking to Meyer about Fields last year instead of Haskins. 

[Bacon]

 

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some here might pertain to the QB spot.  Keim has said multiple times it might be on the table to trade a D lineman, he didn't say when whether this year or next.

 

 

...."They're not going to be able to keep all those guys," one league source said.

"They will have to be judicious in which ones they keep," said salary-cap expert Joel Corry, who is a former agent who works for CBS Sports and hosts a podcast devoted to salary-cap issues.

Washington's plan could start this offseason with tackle Jonathan Allen, who would like an extension rather than playing on the fifth-year option in 2021. There hasn't been movement on a deal, though some of that stems from teams still not knowing the salary-cap ceiling.

 

Also, as one league source said, Washington must first figure out its quarterback situation and how much money will be allocated before moving on to bigger deals. Allen's side could wait to see what free-agent tackle Leonard Williams receives as well.

Washington coach Ron Rivera values building the lines and, therefore, keeping them together as long as possible. Rivera has mentioned both lines needing to be the team's foundation. He's not alone in that thinking.

 

"I'm a big believer that you start building defenses from the front back," said Washington's new senior vice president of player personnel Marty Hurney. "If quarterbacks don't have time to throw the ball it makes it a lot easier on the back end."

 

But when it comes to roster building, Corry said, Washington needs to "look to San Francisco as a bit of a model."

Indeed, the 49ers accrued comparable line talent, building a defensive line using first-round picks on Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas and Nick Bosa. They also added Dee Ford in free agency. Last offseason, they traded Buckner, entering his option year and with Armstead a free agent, to Indianapolis for a first-round pick. They then re-signed Armstead.

 

...Washington can bring this group back in 2021. But at some point, decisions will have to be made.

"If you keep all those guys in the middle," said one executive, "then you'll lose one of those edge ones."

 

This DL is our own version of the Legion of Boom. The model really should be to draft the next guy alongside Heinicke so we don't have to spend an arm and a leg up front, keeping the DL together for as long as possible. That's what Seattle did with Wilson and they made it to back to back Super Bowls with everything properly aligned. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Bacon

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Skinsinparadise Interesting article. But I still don't get it. Extend Allen for 2021-2025. Extend Payne next year for 2022-2026. Sweat gets extended in 2023-2027 and Young in 2024-2028. So again, you can keep those 4 DL together for *fairly cheap* through 2023. Then you worry about 2024/2025 when you get there, and maybe you cut or trade Allen and/or Payne, who will both be pushing 30 anyway (which is cut bait season). But that's a bridge you cross in 2024.

 

You have 2021, 2022, 2023 to get through where you can have those 4 around on 2 big deals and 2 rookie deals. That's very doable given the amount of $$ this team has tied up into the future. Beyond 2022 the only real contract is Landon Collins, who you'll probably cut bait with after next year anyway. Yeah, that changes this off-season when you bring in FAs, but not like they've got much tied up.

 

These people make it sound like WFT is going to be in trouble very soon, but that's far from the case. Of course if you go sign a QB for $40m a year and sign Allen Robinson for $20m a year and re-sign Scherff for $15m a year it might make the decisions a bit harder in 2022 or 2023 but I don't see any of that happening.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[PartyPosse]

10 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

 

This DL is our own version of the Legion of Boom. The model really should be to draft the next guy alongside Heinicke so we don't have to spend an arm and a leg up front, keeping the DL together for as long as possible. That's what Seattle did with Wilson and they made it to back to back Super Bowls with everything properly aligned. 

Makes you wonder how they would have fared had they not drafted Wilson.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

 

This DL is our own version of the Legion of Boom. The model really should be to draft the next guy alongside Heinicke so we don't have to spend an arm and a leg up front, keeping the DL together for as long as possible. That's what Seattle did with Wilson and they made it to back to back Super Bowls with everything properly aligned. 

 

I have almost zero doubts that they bring in someone else, even if they do draft a guy. Allen is still rehabbing from a major injury, Heinicke has only started one game and has durability concerns, and nobody knows what will happen with Smith, but I have a hard time seeing WFT pay him almost $25 million to hold a clipboard when they can release him this season with only a $10 million dead cap hit.

[88Comrade2000]

39 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

i have no idea. I'd like to think they are here to talk sense into Snyder, or maybe to do the rest of the draft, or to work out a better trade than the RG3 or McNabb trades, but I refuse to believe that Snyder's not involved. So the question becomes how involved and who is his guy? 

 

Maybe its a debate with the FO and Snyder. Maybe Snyder likes Lance and the FO likes Fields (or vice versa). Maybe Ron has the three tiered front office to try to fight this battle for him because Ron has to do more than just deal with a meddling owner. 

I am sure Ron informs Dan of every important decision but I don’t think he would have taken the job; if Dan was allowed to interfere.

 

 

[Bacon]

5 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Makes you wonder how they would have fared had they not drafted Wilson.

If they hadn't and, for instance, signed Peyton Manning instead, they still would have been extremely successful. But their window would have been much smaller. The Seahawks have been one of the most reliably solid teams in the league for years and that's because they generally draft and coach well, keeping an eye to the future. Landing Wilson gave them excellent production on a budget at a premier position, but it wouldn't have happened if they insisted on mitigating risk by signing an expensive veteran.

 

I won't shed a tear if we go out and get insurance for our next rookie QB, I think there's logic in it, but the success rate of pro bowl QBs on rookie contracts has been modeled for us. I really hope we find a special QB in this year's draft or next year's. It's been far, far too long.

[PartyPosse]

9 minutes ago, Bacon said:

If they hadn't and, for instance, signed Peyton Manning instead, they still would have been extremely successful. But their window would have been much smaller. The Seahawks have been one of the most reliably solid teams in the league for years and that's because they generally draft and coach well, keeping an eye to the future. Landing Wilson gave them excellent production on a budget at a premier position, but it wouldn't have happened if they insisted on mitigating risk by signing an expensive veteran.

 

I won't shed a tear if we go out and get insurance for our next rookie QB, I think there's logic in it, but the success rate of pro bowl QBs on rookie contracts has been modeled for us. I really hope we find a special QB in this year's draft or next year's. It's been far, far too long.

Well, they wouldn't have because they'd signed Matt Flynn to be their starter until Russell beat him out in camp. No way they win with Flynn. Even though RW numbers for 2012 weren't anything special, outside of a two game stretch he was remarkably consistent, having not thrown multiple INT in any other game that year.

[Jumbo]

rg3 might be gettable

 

he's matured and still has great hair

[ODU AGGIE]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

He is a kid in football life though. The guy only has only started 2 games. And has less than 100 career pass attempts. He could use a season under someone like Fitz.

Heinicke not only is 28, he also most assuredly has more experience with Scott Turner's offense than any other QB in the league not currently under contract with the WFT -- so there is no need for a place holder to give him time "to get his feet under him." To me, that flat leaves 38 year-old journeyman Fitzpatrick just flat out of the picture. To me, the only question Rivera is facing is whether or not to roll with Heinicke, Allen and Smith, and I strongly suspect the answer is no. However, this does not mean that they need to spend a lot of draft capital. I don't think they need a replacement for TH as much as someone to compete with him. I see Smith as gone next year and Allen as not the guy they expect to beat out TH. As I stated earlier, I believe Mariota is just what they are looking for -- an experienced QB with a similar skill set to Heinicke who will come in and compete strongly for the starting position. I see a Heinicke/Mariota/Allen QB room as a solid solution, regardless of who the starter is after a training camp competition. The draft can then be used to shore up other positions of need.

[mistertim]

8 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Well, they wouldn't have because they'd signed Matt Flynn to be their starter until Russell beat him out in camp. No way they win with Flynn. Even though RW numbers for 2012 weren't anything special, outside of a two game stretch he was remarkably consistent, having not thrown multiple INT in any other game that year.

 

Yeah that was a weird situation that ended up being backwards. Flynn was considered to potentially be the next big thing after tearing it up for a couple of games with GB so Seattle signed him to a pretty nice 3 year deal and then drafted Wilson in the 3rd...probably with the assumption that Flynn would be the starter and, like most mid round QBs, Wilson could potentially end up good but at the very least would likely be a decent backup.

 

The rest is history.

[Number 44]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Offering a first and a third for Stafford is a heavy haul.  The Rams just bid more.   Apparently so did Carolina.

I disagree that LAR bid more than WFT did for Stafford.  Our third rounder this year is better than the Rams' third rounder.  Our first rounder this year is a lot more than the Rams 1st rounder next year.  And the 2023 LAR first rounder was really payment for DET taking on Goff's albatross of a contract.  Now, Carolina's reported offer was better than ours, IMO, and Denver's as well, from what I've read, but the Rams' offer that DET accepted just wasn't, IMO.

[NickyJ]

12 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

rg3 might be gettable

 

he's matured and still has great hair

All these kids going on these days about having "diamond hands", RG3 was the OG with diamond socks.

Edited February 19, 2021 by NickyJ

[Est.1974]

Colts got a good deal on Wentz. I reckon he’s going to ball there. 

[PigskinRedskin]

16 minutes ago, NickyJ said:

All these kids going on these days about having "diamond hands", RG3 was the OG with diamond socks.

 

No pressure, no diamonds. All in week 1!