Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[86 Snyder]

20 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I disagree that LAR bid more than WFT did for Stafford.  Our third rounder this year is better than the Rams' third rounder.  Our first rounder this year is a lot more than the Rams 1st rounder next year.  And the 2023 LAR first rounder was really payment for DET taking on Goff's albatross of a contract.  Now, Carolina's reported offer was better than ours, IMO, and Denver's as well, from what I've read, but the Rams' offer that DET accepted just wasn't, IMO.

 

I definitely agree with you but the Lions evidently view Goff as an asset and not a detriment.  Or at minimum don't care about his cost so long as the get the extra 1st.  

[Number 44]

6 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

I definitely agree with you but the Lions evidently view Goff as an asset and not a detriment.  Or at minimum don't care about his cost so long as the get the extra 1st.  

Exactly.  No one can save DET from themselves.

 

[PartyPosse]

For a rebuilding team with plenty of cap space, Goff is most definitely an asset. His contract isn’t a killer considering it’s only for two more years and Detroit is not under any pressure to draft a QB this year. And even if they do they’re in no pressure to start him right away.Goff isn’t going to be an all pro any time soon but he’s as good as any of the QBs out there on the FA market. He has a chance to rebuild his career and nab Detroit a high comp pick or at worse is a meh starter on a team with no aspirations of winning during the duration of his contract.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@Skinsinparadise Interesting article. But I still don't get it. Extend Allen for 2021-2025. Extend Payne next year for 2022-2026. Sweat gets extended in 2023-2027 and Young in 2024-2028. So again, you can keep those 4 DL together for *fairly cheap* through 2023. Then you worry about 2024/2025 when you get there, and maybe you cut or trade Allen and/or Payne, who will both be pushing 30 anyway (which is cut bait season). But that's a bridge you cross in 2024.

 

You have 2021, 2022, 2023 to get through where you can have those 4 around on 2 big deals and 2 rookie deals. That's very doable given the amount of $$ this team has tied up into the future. Beyond 2022 the only real contract is Landon Collins, who you'll probably cut bait with after next year anyway. Yeah, that changes this off-season when you bring in FAs, but not like they've got much tied up.

 

These people make it sound like WFT is going to be in trouble very soon, but that's far from the case. Of course if you go sign a QB for $40m a year and sign Allen Robinson for $20m a year and re-sign Scherff for $15m a year it might make the decisions a bit harder in 2022 or 2023 but I don't see any of that happening.

 

 

You also got Ionnaidis.  The same article speculated that by the time Chase Young hits free agency he will be a 30 million dollar guy.  Sweat I think will get big money, too.  How many guys can you play 15-30 million in one spot?

 

I get the impression from Keim that he's been hearing this narrative some from the team.  If so, I gather they might not see it the way you do.   I guess we will find out.  Keim has said now multiple times that trading a D lineman he believes is on the table for a pick. I get the vibe its more likely to be in 2022 versus this year.  Keim usually does not just throw stuff out there that's completely predicated purely on his own thoughts so I am guessing there is something to it. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[86 Snyder]

15 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Exactly.  No one can save DET from themselves.

 

 

I had the same take.  There is an argument though if you don't care about winning the next 2 seasons or the cap that's its better to have 2 1sts than 1 1st.

 

In terms of value, I'd say our offer was better.  But also, 2 1sts are better than 1.  So I can at least see why they would prefer that deal. 

 

They could have taken 19 from us though and parlayed that into future picks and ended up in the same place.  And they wouldn't have to pay Goff.  And they would probably have a worse QB than Goff because he is at least functional despite the bloated contract, which means he is devaluing *their own* 1st round picks.  And I also have more confidence in LAs picks being later than ours.  

 

So yeah, our offer was better.  They either actually like Goff (dumb) or couldn't untangle the deal in their minds (dumb).  

[Number 44]

3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

For a rebuilding team with plenty of cap space, Goff is most definitely an asset. His contract isn’t a killer considering it’s only for two more years and Detroit is not under any pressure to draft a QB this year. And even if they do they’re in no pressure to start him right away.Goff isn’t going to be an all pro any time soon but he’s as good as any of the QBs out there on the FA market. He has a chance to rebuild his career and nab Detroit a high comp pick or at worse is a meh starter on a team with no aspirations of winning during the duration of his contract.

In addition to the WFT offer, they could have had the #9 pick plus Lock from Denver or the #8 pick plus Bridgewater from Carolina.  They chose the worst offer of the 4 that we know of, by a wide margin.

[PartyPosse]

13 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

In addition to the WFT offer, they could have had the #9 pick plus Lock from Denver or the #8 pick plus Bridgewater from Carolina.  They chose the worst offer of the 4 that we know of, by a wide margin.

I thought Denver didn’t want to include Lock.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You also got Ionnaidis.  The same article speculated that by the time Chase Young hits free agency he will be a 30 million dollar guy.  Sweat I think will get big money, too.  How many guys can you play 15-30 million in one spot?

 

Here's how it breaks down. I am using 2021 5th year projections for Payne, Sweat and Chase. Obv. those are gonna go up. Payne's 5th year option for 2022 is $8.5m which is a no-brainer to accept. Sweat's would be $9.7m ... again an easy one to accept. Chase Young would come in at $15m (transition tag number since he was a top 10 pick), which again is a no brainer. As you can see in the chart below, we don't really start "owing" substantially more money to our DL until 2024, and granted, the 2021 and 2022 number is based on 5 contracts while 2023 and beyond is just 4. I think 2024 is probably the year you can "stomach" it being a bit bloated with those starters all being paid, especially since that year's cap is likely to be north of $240m ... and 2025 is when you probably have to part ways with Allen and/or Payne and hit a bit of a "reset" and focusing on your DEs ... BUT, between now and 2025 you have 5 drafts to draft and develop another starting IDL (or two), which is more than a reasonable amount of time.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Number 44]

19 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I thought Denver didn’t want to include Lock.

Why trade for Stafford, then?  Regardless, if you wanted to trade for the #9 pick in this year's draft, it would cost more than what LAR gave up in that trade.  If I'm a Lions fan, I am seriously PO'd right now.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some here might pertain to the QB spot.  Keim has said multiple times it might be on the table to trade a D lineman, he didn't say when whether this year or next.

 

 

...."They're not going to be able to keep all those guys," one league source said.

"They will have to be judicious in which ones they keep," said salary-cap expert Joel Corry, who is a former agent who works for CBS Sports and hosts a podcast devoted to salary-cap issues.

Washington's plan could start this offseason with tackle Jonathan Allen, who would like an extension rather than playing on the fifth-year option in 2021. There hasn't been movement on a deal, though some of that stems from teams still not knowing the salary-cap ceiling.

 

Also, as one league source said, Washington must first figure out its quarterback situation and how much money will be allocated before moving on to bigger deals. Allen's side could wait to see what free-agent tackle Leonard Williams receives as well.

Washington coach Ron Rivera values building the lines and, therefore, keeping them together as long as possible. Rivera has mentioned both lines needing to be the team's foundation. He's not alone in that thinking.

 

"I'm a big believer that you start building defenses from the front back," said Washington's new senior vice president of player personnel Marty Hurney. "If quarterbacks don't have time to throw the ball it makes it a lot easier on the back end."

 

But when it comes to roster building, Corry said, Washington needs to "look to San Francisco as a bit of a model."

Indeed, the 49ers accrued comparable line talent, building a defensive line using first-round picks on Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas and Nick Bosa. They also added Dee Ford in free agency. Last offseason, they traded Buckner, entering his option year and with Armstead a free agent, to Indianapolis for a first-round pick. They then re-signed Armstead.

 

...Washington can bring this group back in 2021. But at some point, decisions will have to be made.

"If you keep all those guys in the middle," said one executive, "then you'll lose one of those edge ones."

 

You can't keep them all. You can't allocate that much cap space to the line w/o suffering for it at other key positions. Add in the fact that DL is one of the best places to spend draft capital on day one and it makes sense to pull a niners move and trade one of them for a first or as a package to move up for a QB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Here's how it breaks down. I am using 2021 5th year projections for Payne, Sweat and Chase. Obv. those are gonna go up. Payne's 5th year option for 2022 is $8.5m which is a no-brainer to accept. Sweat's would be $9.7m ... again an easy one to accept. Chase Young would come in at $15m (transition tag number since he was a top 10 pick), which again is a no brainer. As you can see in the chart below, we don't really start "owing" substantially more money to our DL until 2024, and granted, the 2021 and 2022 number is based on 5 contracts while 2023 and beyond is just 4. I think 2024 is probably the year you can "stomach" it being a bit bloated with those starters all being paid, especially since that year's cap is likely to be north of $240m ... and 2025 is when you probably have to part ways with Allen and/or Payne and hit a bit of a "reset" and focusing on your DEs ... BUT, between now and 2025 you have 5 drafts to draft and develop another starting IDL (or two), which is more than a reasonable amount of time.

 

 

 

 

 

I'll double down I am not getting the impression that this is Keim's pet theory that he came up with on his own but its about what he's hearing from someone he knows with the team.  So you need to convince them apparently not me that they can ride with all of them.  😀

[The Consigliere]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

You can't keep them all. You can't allocate that much cap space to the line w/o suffering for it at other key positions. Add in the fact that DL is one of the best places to spend draft capital on day one and it makes sense to pull a niners move and trade one of them for a first or as a package to move up for a QB. 

 

Did anyone see this trade idea from PFF (if anyone already mentioned it, my apologies) : I think the returns a bit light considering Payne still has 1+1 left on his deal, but here's their idea for a Payne trade:

 

We trade Payne to LA for their '21 2nd and their 22 4th. 

 

Link:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-10-trades-that-make-sense-2021-nfl-offseason-deshaun-watson-carson-wentz

 

We trade Payne to LA for their '21 2nd and their 22 4th. 

...

the Washington Football Team has to start making decisions along this loaded defensive line because the simple truth is they can’t — or shouldn’t — pay everybody.

2017 first-round pick Jonathan Allen is set to play on the fifth-year option in 2021, and he is surely looking for a big-time extension this offseason coming off a career year with an 83.5 pass-rushing grade and 47 pressures (both personal bests). 2018 first-round pick Daron Payne clogging up the middle at nose tackle certainly freed Allen up as a 3- and 5-technique, but Payne offers little by way of generating pressure on the quarterback, making him more of a luxury. 

The new collective bargaining agreement made it so that all fifth-year options this upcoming offseason (for 2018 first-round picks, like Payne) are fully guaranteed when exercised, so a decision on Payne this offseason just further locks in more cap commitments with big extensions looming for edge defenders Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Washington has fellow 2018 draft pick Tim Settle as a solid, developing player at nose tackle, and the position is just cheaper and easier to address in general.....

[Burgundy Yoda]

Since we're basically going to be in same boat as SF was with their DL, it makes me curious why Buckner was traded and not Armstead. Buckner is clearly the better of the two, is it simply because the 49ers figured they'd get a 1st for Buckner and maybe only a 2nd for Armstead? 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'll double down I am not getting the impression that this is Keim's pet theory that he came up with on his own but its about what he's hearing from someone he knows with the team.  So you need to convince them apparently not me that they can ride with all of them.  😀

see his tweet above. He said the team is going to account for it with their off season moves. Which means they could opt to be more conservative in going after big contracts for FAs if they opt to keep the DL together beyond 2022/2023. 
 

also, $60m for 4 high-end starters on a $240m budget isn’t crazy. It just means you’re prioritizing DL in that time frame. And right now the OL is fairly cheap. If you draft an LT this year in R1 or 2 and that pans out, your OL will end up being high end while probably being middle of the road in the league in terms of cost during the same window your DL will be one of the higher paid ... and yes that’s even with Moses/Scherff/Roullier. Mainly because you have a solid contract with Moses and Roullier and won’t have a premier LT contract on the books.

Edited February 19, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[86 Snyder]

Sigh...this is why I think 3 1sts + Jon Allen isn't too much for Watson.  You have a full compliment of picks again by the time Watson is entering his age 29 season and the position is solved.  The defense is still young and who knows, if you make the right moves in FA and draft well you could **** around and get to the Super Bowl in the next three seasons anyway.

 

I definitely wouldn't move Chase or Sweat but one of the interior guys, sure.  

 

But I know it's not happening.

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[HigSkin]

Just got finished listening to this and in summary, both Cooley and Kevin think Fitz would be a great bridge QB if they can't make something happen.  Good leader, locker room guy, etc.  Like, they'd rather have him vs Alex Smith or any other older FA QB.  Cooley does think they should take a flyer on Darnold for a 2nd.  We all know how Kevin feels about Darnold.

 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, PartyPosse said:

For a rebuilding team with plenty of cap space, Goff is most definitely an asset. His contract isn’t a killer considering it’s only for two more years and Detroit is not under any pressure to draft a QB this year. And even if they do they’re in no pressure to start him right away.Goff isn’t going to be an all pro any time soon but he’s as good as any of the QBs out there on the FA market. He has a chance to rebuild his career and nab Detroit a high comp pick or at worse is a meh starter on a team with no aspirations of winning during the duration of his contract.

 

I agree. I'm not a big Goff guy but he is still a serviceable NFL QB, better then they could have done in the FA market. So he fills a need and allows them to take their time to find their QB of the future, while getting an extra 1st in the process.  No this was an excellent trade for the Lions, and perhaps the Rams if Stafford can put them over the top. 

[86 Snyder]

1 hour ago, PartyPosse said:

For a rebuilding team with plenty of cap space, Goff is most definitely an asset. His contract isn’t a killer considering it’s only for two more years and Detroit is not under any pressure to draft a QB this year. And even if they do they’re in no pressure to start him right away.Goff isn’t going to be an all pro any time soon but he’s as good as any of the QBs out there on the FA market. He has a chance to rebuild his career and nab Detroit a high comp pick or at worse is a meh starter on a team with no aspirations of winning during the duration of his contract.

 

Except he is competant and therefore devalues their own 1st by winning games, keeping them in the current QB purgatory we find ourselves.

 

Why can't teams commit to a real 3 year rebuild?  If I'm the Lions, I punt QB and take one of the other deals.  Trade current picks for 2022 picks and do the same next year unless I'm in position for the QB I want long term.  You could hit the 2023 draft with like 4 1sts and 3 2nds and really set things up.  The owner had to buy in though and agree no one gets fired for results in the short term.  I'd much rather be terrible for 2-3 years with a bright future versus always drowning in mediocrity.

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

see his tweet above. He said the team is going to account for it with their off season moves. Which means they could opt to be more conservative in going after big contracts for FAs if they opt to keep the DL together beyond 2022/2023. 

 

He's said in two different podcasts, trading one of the D lineman is likely on the table.  I get the impression not this year but next. 

[Skinsinparadise]

for some reason I couldn't cut and paste this one

 

 

[wit33]

I think there’s always situational elements to team building, but this article shows the 2015 Panthers were #2 in the league in paying the DLine and LBs and #30 in paying DBs and S. Aligns with what a fair amount of us know in regard to philosophy of Ron and Hurney. 
 

Recycle the secondary with speeeeed and sprinkle a veteran from time to time and keep the big boys intact for most part.

 

If you had to, how would you break up the DLine: do you give up 2 of the interior guys or Sweat?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2016/02/06/super-bowl-50-how-the-denver-broncos-and-carolina-panthers-invested-the-salary-cap/amp/

Edited February 19, 2021 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

I think there’s always situational elements to team building, but this article shows the 2015 Panthers were #2 in the league in paying the DLine and LBs and #30 in paying DBs and S. Aligns with what a fair amount of us know in regard to philosophy of Ron and Hurney. 
 

Recycle the secondary with speeeeed and sprinkle a veteran from time to time and keep the big boys intact.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2016/02/06/super-bowl-50-how-the-denver-broncos-and-carolina-panthers-invested-the-salary-cap/amp/

 

I am a D line guy been screaming for it for years until we finally built it.  But I don't see how trading one D lineman for a draft pick and keeping everyone else defeats that idea.

[wit33]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am a D line guy been screaming for it for years until we finally built it.  But I don't see how trading one D lineman for a draft pick and keeping everyone else defeats that idea.

I agree.

 

Do you give up two interior guys, or Sweat? Can you foresee the team keeping both Sweat and Young on second contracts?

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I agree.

 

Do you give up two interior guys, or Sweat? Can you foresee the team keeping both Sweat and Young on second contracts?

 

Personally I think it has to be an interior guy.  Sweat and Young are freaks for their position.  

 

The interior guys are good but they aren't IMO pro bowlers at least not yet.  I think it has to be either Ionnaidis or Payne.  I think you keep Allen in part because he's a culture guy. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Skinsinparadise