Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[KDawg]

Honestly if I were Atlanta I’d very much consider Sewell. They never have good lines. 

[RWJ]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Breer just now, he's usually plugged in

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/10/nfl-mailbag-remembering-marty-schottenheimer-2021-quarterbacks

From JV (@jessvegs): With Stafford out of the equation, what does Washington do at QB now? Carr? Trade up for Fields? Darnold?

JV, since you asked the question, Washington did re-sign Taylor Heinicke, but I think the Football Team will still continue aggressively looking at just about everything. They offered a first-rounder and third-rounder for Stafford, a haul close to what Carolina was willing to give up for him. And they’ve inquired on Carr—who, to this point, has not been made available by the Raiders. I’m also relatively certain that, picking 19th, Washington won’t get Zach Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance without trading up.

But if you add all those things up, the desire to go get a quarterback added to the way the winds are blowing on the draft class, it’s pretty easy to see where Washington would be a trade-up candidate here. Especially when you consider that the 2022 draft class, as of right now, doesn’t have even one slam-dunk first-round quarterback. In that way, this year is like 2018, and we saw three trades up within or into the top 10 to get QB that year.

Feedback from ya, SIP?

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Breer just now, he's usually plugged in

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/10/nfl-mailbag-remembering-marty-schottenheimer-2021-quarterbacks

From JV (@jessvegs): With Stafford out of the equation, what does Washington do at QB now? Carr? Trade up for Fields? Darnold?

JV, since you asked the question, Washington did re-sign Taylor Heinicke, but I think the Football Team will still continue aggressively looking at just about everything. They offered a first-rounder and third-rounder for Stafford, a haul close to what Carolina was willing to give up for him. And they’ve inquired on Carr—who, to this point, has not been made available by the Raiders. I’m also relatively certain that, picking 19th, Washington won’t get Zach Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance without trading up.

But if you add all those things up, the desire to go get a quarterback added to the way the winds are blowing on the draft class, it’s pretty easy to see where Washington would be a trade-up candidate here. Especially when you consider that the 2022 draft class, as of right now, doesn’t have even one slam-dunk first-round quarterback. In that way, this year is like 2018, and we saw three trades up within or into the top 10 to get QB that year.

This is where if they can't land a Vet QB letting Jones fall to them or moving up a few spots for him would keep us from ransoming our 1st and more for next year.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Some more from Breer

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/10/nfl-mailbag-remembering-marty-schottenheimer-2021-quarterbacks

 

From Edward Kayal (@_Ed_Edd_Eddie_): How highly rated is Trey Lance on draft boards? Is he expected to go late first or early first? And is he a big factor when considering the QB trade market from Carolina and beyond?

Edward, I made a comparison to 2018 earlier in the column and I’ll take that to another

level here: I think Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance, probably in that order, will all go inside the top 10. I believe each of them have the talent to go that high. But beyond that, looking ahead to the 2022 class, the dearth of slam-dunk first-round types should create some urgency for teams trying to find a long-term answer at the position.

In 2018, it meant three teams trading into the top 10 (Jets, Bills, Cardinals) to get quarterbacks and, for the most part, the feeling on the talent in the 2019 class was correct. Two of the three quarterbacks who went in the first round that year (Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins) weren’t even starting for their college teams the year before, and the third (Daniel Jones) was a bit of a late-riser in the process. So the fact that the 2022 class looks uncertain (USC’s Kedon Slovis? Georgia’s J.T. Daniels?) is very relevant.

 

And because Lance figures to be the fourth of the four to go in the upper reaches, where he lands will become an important storyline for how the 2021 draft goes. I also think, for what it’s worth, Lance is a fascinating prospect—he was borderline flawless in his first year starting (national champion, 28-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio), albeit at the FCS level, then got his second year taken by COVID-19. North Dakota State played just one game this fall, and it happened to be Lance’s first really shaky game, adding a level of intrigue to his evaluation.

I’m not sure, by the way, that’s completely fair, given the weird circumstances of that game. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see how the NFL digests all of this over the next two months.

 

From Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25): Latest on Sam Darnold? Best fit? Best return package for the Jets? Who is starting QB this September if you had to guess?

Paul, in Monday’s column we had the latest: The Jets heard from four teams about Darnold in the aftermath of the Matthew Stafford trade, and those four teams were essentially told that the Jets are still digging through the evaluation process. Which, of course, is not a no. And while I don’t think they’re in any rush, that tells me that soon enough they’ll be fielding offers.

Back in the fall, when it looked like the Jets were going to wind up with Trevor Lawrence, I did some asking around on Darnold’s value. The answer I got was that they’d probably be able to extract a little more than what the Cardinals wound up getting for Josh Rosen during the 2019 draft. Arizona, you’ll remember, wound up with a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder. So maybe it’d be a two and four, or a two and a three. Or maybe it’ll be more than that depending on what happens with Carson Wentz.

As for the last question, and this is just a hunch (truly): I’ll say BYU’s Zach Wilson.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

34 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Feedback from ya, SIP?

This is where if they can't land a Vet QB letting Jones fall to them or moving up a few spots for him would keep us from ransoming our 1st and more for next year.  

 

Breer isn't the only one mentioning a "meh" 2022 draft for QBs potentially.  Granted every now and then a college QB pops out of the blue like Burrow did.  FA also looks even more meh next year than this year.  Breer thinks that could factor in their approach as do I.

 

I've listened now to I gather about 6 different interviews/conferences with Ron, coupled with listening to a ton of podcasts, etc about what beat guys are hearing.   So I think I have a feel for how they might be thinking.  My take is this:

 

A.  The don't want to swing for a guy just to swing for a guy.

B.  They will swing hard for a QB they think is the solution but they have a price for that player and will stick to it.

C.  They might be open to swing for a rehab type of player if they don't pay through the nose and have that player compete with Heinicke and Allen

D.  if they miss out on a veteran leading to the draft, they might have a dual approach to the draft.  1. Try to trade up.   2.  If they fail to trade up, trade down and build 2022 capital that they could use then to try to trade for a veteran or to trade up in the draft. 

 

When Ron said there are looking at all options as they come and they don't know all options available and that could change, I believe him.

 

What we do know or likely know:

A. They liked Stafford and took a swing to get him

B.  They like Carr.  That's three different sources on that now.  But Carr likely won't be available.

C.  They like Fields.  That was just Sheehan though saying that.

 

What do I guess happens?

A.  They try to trade up to #3 soon as opposed to waiting for draft day.  They won't like Miami's demands so they move to plan B

B.  (maybe wishful thinking) they trade a third for Mariota

C.  They build 2022 draft capital during the 2021 draft

 

As for Mac Jones, I don't have a strong gut feel if they'd like him or not.  There is a big wildcard for him which is the Senior Bowl interviews.  If they really liked him on that front among other variables its possible they shoot for him.   My guess is not but it wouldn't shock me. 

 

Mariota strikes me up their alley as a flier type bet.  He can run.  He's mobile.  He's supposedly a high character/nice guy.    His numbers are better than Darnold, he's more mobile than Darnold and likely could be had cheaper than Darnold. 

 

As for FA, Rivera stressing over and over again leadership, that made me think some of Fitzpatrick if they are looking for a band aid type player.  

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Breer isn't the only one mentioning a "meh" 2022 draft for QBs potentially.  Granted every now and then a college QB pops out of the blue.  FA also looks even more meh next year than this year.  Breer thinks that could factor in their approach as do I.

 

I've listened now to I gather about 6 different interviews/conferences with Ron, copled with listening to a ton of podcasts, etc about what beat guys are hearing.   So I think I have a feel for how they might be thinking.  My take is this:

 

A.  The don't want to swing for a guy just to swing for a guy.

B.  They will swing hard for a QB they think is the solution but they have a price for that player and will stick to it.

C.  They might be open to swing for a rehab type of player if they don't pay through the nose and have that player compete with Heinicke and Allen

D.  if they miss out on a veteran leading to the draft, they might have a dual approach to the draft.  1. Try to trade up.   2.  If they fail to trade up, trade down and build 2022 capital that they could use then to try to trade for a veteran or to trade up in the draft. 

 

When Ron said there are looking at all options as they come and they don't know all options available and that could change, I believe him.

 

What we do know or likely know:

A. They liked Stafford and took a swing to get him

B.  They like Carr.  That's three different sources on that now.  But Carr likely won't be available.

C.  They like Fields.  That was just Sheehan though saying that.

 

What do I guess happens?

A.  They try to trade up to #3 soon as opposed to waiting for draft day.  They won't like Miami's demands so they move to plan B

B.  (maybe wishful thinking) they trade a third for Mariota

C.  They build 2022 draft capital during the 2021 draft

 

As for Mac Jones, I don't have a strong gut feel if they'd like him or not.  There is a big wildcard for him which is the Senior Bowl interviews.  If they really liked him on that front its possible they shoot for him.   My guess is not but it wouldn't shock me. 

 

Mariota strikes me up their alley as a flier type bet.  He can run.  He's mobile.  He's supposedly a high character/nice guy.    His numbers are better than Darnold, he's more mobile than Darnold and likely could be had cheaper than Darnold. 

 

As for FA, Rivera stressing over and over again leadership, that made me think some of Fitzpatrick if they are looking for a band aid type player.  

 

I'm in for Mariota.  A 3rd is fair.  I don't like them trading all the way up to the top 3 and don't think that happens.  Moving up a few spots for a QB that falls or they like, I like the idea.  Trading down is a good option too.  Maybe there is a QB they like in the 2nd/3rd round they think has potential while picking up additional 2022 picks.  Thanks for the feedback as always.  

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Breer isn't the only one mentioning a "meh" 2022 draft for QBs potentially.  Granted every now and then a college QB pops out of the blue like Burrow did.  FA also looks even more meh next year than this year.

 

 

 

Every year is different, too many factors.  The best solution to take advantage of possible future scenarios is to acquire and keep future draft capital as ammo in trade.  So trade back to acquire an extra 1st in 2022, and if that still doesn't look good, then trade back from one of those 1st's to grab an extra in 2023, etc etc.

 

That said, nobody anticipated this QB frenzy before the 2020 season started.  Nobody knew Watson would demand a trade, or that Stafford would be traded, or that some of these QB's might be on the block.  Like Carr, or Matt Ryan (continues to be rumors of them grabbing someone like Fields at #4).

 

As for the draft, some QB's who rose drastically during their last season in college:

2021 - Zach Wilson

2020 - Joe Burrow

2019 - Kyler Murray

2018 - Baker Mayfield (wasn't he thought of as a likely Day 2 pick before his final college season?)

2017 - Trubisky and Mahomes, I think pre-college season, only Watson was viewed as and stuck around being a 1st rounder

2016 - Hackenburg was thought to be QB1, then he continued to struggle, and Wentz wasn't viewed as a 1st rounder, can't remember about Goff

2015 - This is the only year where pre and post college seasons matched up with draft hype.  Winston and Mariota were always thought of as 1st rounders.

 

Skipping ahead here:

2012 - Luck was always QB1, but nobody had the meteoric rise of RG3 in mind, or thought Ryan Tannehill would be Top 10.

 

TL;DR: It's way too early to plan ahead for the 2022 QB Draft or the QB's available in 2022 via FA or Trade.  Also...if Dak gets franchised again, he's walking in 2022.

[ODU AGGIE]

7 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

I absolutely love the signing of heinke...good job coach/management... I'm not even nowhere near concerned about him being injury-prone I absolutely love the idea of knowing that he will be in there competing in Camp

Sooooo I'm safe to pre order his jersey?

You bet!

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Every year is different, too many factors.  The best solution to take advantage of possible future scenarios is to acquire and keep future draft capital as ammo in trade.  So trade back to acquire an extra 1st in 2022, and if that still doesn't look good, then trade back from one of those 1st's to grab an extra in 2023, etc etc.

 

 

I've made the same point about QBs can emerge but lets say a Kyler Murray or Burrow emerges they likely are going #1 in the draft. 

 

Just because we want a QB doesn't mean the team drafting first will want to play ball and trade him away.  Typically, the top QB in the draft isn't given up in a trade.  I'd bet if a Kyler Murray type emerges we wont be able to trade for him especially if we end up picking 15 or later. 

 

IMO Rivera has the right approach, play it zen, if there is a QB you like now, shoot for it now, set a price and see what it happens.  Yeah 2022 could end up better than it looks but don't place your bets on that either.   Play your hand this off season.  And if it doesn't work out then play it again in 2022. 

[CommDownMan]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

All of this conversation and no one is saying Buechele’s name. I am disappointed. 

 

It's hard to spell and I don't know how to say it.

 

I'm not ready for that kind of commitment.

[kingdaddy]

21 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

You bet!

Will he stay with #4????

Looks like he was #14 at ODU.....might wanna make sure of the number first.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

It's hard to spell and I don't know how to say it.

 

I'm not ready for that kind of commitment.

I find your lack of commitment... disturbing.

[CommDownMan]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I find your lack of commitment... disturbing.

 

Dnn't worry, if they draft him I'll be all in.

 

I will fully admit I don't have an ounce of scouting in me.  I think he'll be in the range that matches my off-season plan, but I'm not going to pretend I have any idea of how he turns out.

[PigskinRedskin]

 

[zCommander]

4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Exactly, been told no to the offer.

 

There's been scuttlebutt aplenty in regard to Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr being a trade candidate.

However, there's a chance a Raiders quarterback could be dealt and it's not Carr.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/raiders-receiving-legit-trade-interest-in-qb-marcus-mariota

[redskinss]

Am I reading those incentives correctly?

Are those all team based?

Interesting that the incentives don't seem to be based off of personal performance rather the Team itself, probably be quite frustrating for him if he has to watch another quarterback lose while he loses millions in the process through no fault of his own.

[Ball Security]

25 minutes ago, PigskinRedskin said:

 

Aren’t we supposed to have 17 games next season?  His game day roster bonus is based on 16 games.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've made the same point about QBs can emerge but lets say a Kyler Murray or Burrow emerges they likely are going #1 in the draft. 

 

Just because we want a QB doesn't mean the team drafting first will want to play ball and trade him away.  Typically, the top QB in the draft isn't given up in a trade.

 

True, but it does push down other QB talent.  In the case of Kyler there wasn't much else to that draft.  In the case of Burrow, it pushed Tua and Herbert down to #5 and #6.  In the case of Baker, it pushed the QB with the most buzz a season earlier, Josh Allen, down to the 3rd QB drafted.

 

This draft, Zach Wilson's emergence is probably going to push Fields and Lance down.

[goskins10]

9 minutes ago, redskinss said:

Am I reading those incentives correctly?

Are those all team based?

Interesting that the incentives don't seem to be based off of personal performance rather the Team itself, probably be quite frustrating for him if he has to watch another quarterback lose while he loses millions in the process through no fault of his own.

 

I may be wrong but I believe those are with him at QB. If he is not in, he does not get the bonuses would be my guess.

 

Not directed at you - more an overall statement - Pretty reasonable contract. $2.5 for 2 yrs if all he does is sit on the bench. Not a bad price for a back-up. $8.5 if he plays well and the team wins. Seems like a pretty team friendly deal but gives him some security. I like it, a lot. 

 

 

[redskins4ever28]

Can you folks who want Mariota explain to me what you see in this guy??? Watching him for the titans, he was pretty below average. The one game he played for the raiders, average at best. What is the love affair with him? I think he’s way worse then TH

[Thinking Skins]

Ok, I've been playing with these similarity metrics for a while and this is what I've got. For the top 8 QBs in the 2021 draft there's a question of who they're most like, or their best comparisons. This has nothing to do with playing style because its not based on video. Its just based on the players end of college career statlines. 

 

I can go into more detail about each player, but here's the quick tldr stuff. 

 

Trevor Lawrence - Bruce Gradkowski, Nate Davis, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Cole McDonald

Zach Wilson - Aaron Rodgers, Omar Jacobs, Blake Bortels, Bryce Petty, DeShone Kizer, Nathan Peterman, Chad Kelly, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Jarrett Stidham, Joe Burrow

Justin Fields - Alex Smith, DeShone Kizer

Trey Lance - Michael Vick

 

Kellen Mond - Andy Dalton, Shaun King, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Trace McSorley

Mac Jones - Dwayne Haskins, Rohan Davey

Kyle Trask - David Carr, JaMarcus Russel, Sam Bradford, Greg McElroy, AJ McCarron, Nate Sudfield, Will Grier, Jarrett Stidham, Jake Fromm

Jamie Newman - Brandon Doman, Craig Krenzel, Alex Smith, Isaiah Stanback, DeShone Kizer, Nathan Peterman, Josh Allen

 

I put recognizable names or guys I know who started a couple games in the pros in bold. I'm still playing with this but its interesting to see what these comparisons bring. The Trey Lance thing is interesting because the Vick comparison is something I hadn't heard before, hadn't really thought about and their numbers don't seem that similar. I also was curious about why Vick and not other more mobile QBs like Mariotta, RG3, Young, etc, But maybe its a threshold thing. Anyway, I don't think this means anything like who will bust or who will be an all pro, but its fun. 

[ODU AGGIE]

2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Will he stay with #4????

Looks like he was #14 at ODU.....might wanna make sure of the number first.

Might want to wait and see, but my bet would be he stays with No. 4. Like the young lady said when asked to dance, "no thank you -- I'll stay with him what brung me."

[Malapropismic Depository]

Did you guys hear with this guy said after the contract, and being asked about whether he was told there'd be a competition for starter ?
I may be paraphrasing here, but I am not exaggerating ;

He essentially said he did not want to be named the starter. Because he did not want to become complacent.

He didn't simply accept or welcome the competition. He wanted it to be a competition, because he wants the competition in order to get even better and better.

That is a crazy combination of humility AND confidence, that you almost never even see in the NFL.

His attitude is perfect. He doesn't just "say the right things". He "thinks, believes, and does" the right things.

Now...go to sleep tonight, and dream of an even better Heinicke.

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Dexter]

8 minutes ago, redskins4ever28 said:

Can you folks who want Mariota explain to me what you see in this guy??? Watching him for the titans, he was pretty below average. The one game he played for the raiders, average at best. What is the love affair with him? I think he’s way worse then TH

He's a mobile QB who is a true leader.  Mariota is Alex Smith 2.0

 

I think signing Henicke to the roster assures that we have a healthy backup.  I would bet Henicke won't be the backup if Mariota is in DC....Mariota would be his backup.

 

My question is why are we not talking about Trubisky?

[Conn]

So funny that some people weren’t sure about this contract (despite being reasonable even before seeing the full numbers) and it’s only got 500k guaranteed in the whole thing lol. You could cut him tonight and not notice it on the cap. 

[redskinsrmylyfe]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

 

My question is why are we not talking about Trubisky?

Yes ! why not Trubisky? Dealt with a lot of adversity this year but came back to finish strong. Has shown glimpses

Edited February 11, 2021 by redskinsrmylyfe