Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[RWJ]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Brugler's new mock

 

 

Just don't know what your getting for Lance.  Only played one game last year and yes the previous year his stats were off the charts.  How would he do playing against SEC teams in CFB?  .  Could be good but you never know.  You are giving up as I mentioned a 2022 1st along with a 3rd this year.  Thus, Carr for a 2022 first along with our 1st this year.  Yes, you are spending big on contract extension if we trade for Carr but you have a proven QB that can play in the NFL.  

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

If we don’t upgrade at the QB position and Taylor isn’t the QB we saw in the TB game then next year would be a waste of a prime year from that defense. 

Agreed. I have to believe Rivera thinks the same.

[zCommander]

Carr is not going anywhere...  

 

"Las Vegas has been making some subtle quarterback moves since their season ended. They signed Nathan Peterman to a one-year contract to stay with the team. Many might not see this as much, but it is. This move signifies that the team is looking to move one of their more expensive players. 

 

Gruden and the Raiders are open to trading one of the quarterbacks, and it’s not Derek Carr. According to Albert Breer, the Raiders told him “pretty emphatically that Carr isn’t available.” However, the team is open to trading Mariota. “The Raiders will listen on Mariota, and he could be the sort of project that could intrigue a team looking for a quarterbacking bargain,” per Breer."

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by zskins

[PartyPosse]

17 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Agreed. I have to believe Rivera thinks the same.

I don’t know why everyone is still all in for KyLe Allen. The only reason he looked competent is because he came in after Haskins and moved the offense. The bar was so low and as we learned with all the other QBs, the offense was actually competent, it’s just Dwayne was so godawful.

 

Also, playing Kyle was fine this past year since we had no expectation of competing and there was no harm in seeing what he had. No reason to chuck that Hail Mary one more time.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

12 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Just don't know what your getting for Lance.  Only played one game last year and yes the previous year his stats were off the charts.  How would he do playing against SEC teams in CFB?  .  Could be good but you never know.  You are giving up as I mentioned a 2022 1st along with a 3rd this year.  Thus, Carr for a 2022 first along with our 1st this year.  Yes, you are spending big on contract extension if we trade for Carr but you have a proven QB that can play in the NFL.  

 

Big fan of that trade. I know it is a lot to give up on paper, but you aren't asking Lance to come in and start in 2021. Heinecke/Allen battle it out and take the reigns for 2021. If Trey Lance moves the needle in camp maybe he gets a shot, but I think you stick him at QB3 and give him a "grey shirt" year.

 

His talent is there. He will fail if you throw him in as raw as he is. But if he goes back and plays in 2021 he likely ends up as a Top 3 pick, if not the #1 pick. So in a sense you're buying him at a slight discount for taking the risk of him not developing as quickly. But I get the concerns. But if the staff sees the talent and has a development plan for him, I'm all in on that price. And you lock in an affordable QB for the next 5 years, which is ideal.

[PartyPosse]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Big fan of that trade. I know it is a lot to give up on paper, but you aren't asking Lance to come in and start in 2021. Heinecke/Allen battle it out and take the reigns for 2021. If Trey Lance moves the needle in camp maybe he gets a shot, but I think you stick him at QB3 and give him a "grey shirt" year.

 

His talent is there. He will fail if you throw him in as raw as he is. But if he goes back and plays in 2021 he likely ends up as a Top 3 pick, if not the #1 pick. So in a sense you're buying him at a slight discount for taking the risk of him not developing as quickly. But I get the concerns. But if the staff sees the talent and has a development plan for him, I'm all in on that price. And you lock in an affordable QB for the next 5 years, which is ideal.

I’m not opposed to Lance but my biggest concern is if Taylor isn’t the guy then we’re wasting the 2021 season. If Taylor is the guy then we didn’t need to spend a first on a QB project when we had other needs to be filled.

[Est.1974]

I think if trading up for Lance becomes the plan we could see Smith back on reduced terms.

[Number 44]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Big fan of that trade. I know it is a lot to give up on paper, but you aren't asking Lance to come in and start in 2021. Heinecke/Allen battle it out and take the reigns for 2021. If Trey Lance moves the needle in camp maybe he gets a shot, but I think you stick him at QB3 and give him a "grey shirt" year.

 

His talent is there. He will fail if you throw him in as raw as he is. But if he goes back and plays in 2021 he likely ends up as a Top 3 pick, if not the #1 pick. So in a sense you're buying him at a slight discount for taking the risk of him not developing as quickly. But I get the concerns. But if the staff sees the talent and has a development plan for him, I'm all in on that price. And you lock in an affordable QB for the next 5 years, which is ideal.

Not interested in this at all.  No reason to waste so much draft capital on a project like this.  The team is looking for QB help this year.  This trade is counterproductive to that.  And you wouldn't have him for 5 years if he was "grey-shirted" in 2021, it would be 4 years, even if he was ready in 2022, with virtually no game experience since 2019.  Hard to imagine a worse way for WFT to proceed.  I could see a team like Carolina selecting Lance and rolling with Bridgewater for 2021 while Lance learns the game, but Lance is a terrible fit for WFT, IMO.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Number 44 said:

Not interested in this at all.  No reason to waste so much draft capital on a project like this.  The team is looking for QB help this year.  This trade is counterproductive to that.  And you wouldn't have him for 5 years if he was "grey-shirted" in 2021, it would be 4 years, even if he was ready in 2022, with virtually no game experience since 2019.  Hard to imagine a worse way for WFT to proceed.  I could see a team like Carolina selecting Lance and rolling with Bridgewater for 2021 while Lance learns the game, but Lance is a terrible fit for WFT, IMO.

 

Why? What if Lance is Patrick Mahomes? The Chiefs traded up for him because they saw something special and they still had Alex Smith under contract for 2 years.

 

Not saying Lance is Mahomes. But you can't let "we need a QB now" be the driving force between you drafting a potential stud like Lance a year early or a middle of the road guy who might be okay in Mac Jones.

Swing for the fences. We aren't winning super bowls in 2021.

Edited February 11, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Number 44]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Why? What if Lance is Patrick Mahomes? The Chiefs traded up for him because they saw something special and they still had Alex Smith under contract for 2 years.

 

Not saying Lance is Mahomes. But you can't let "we need a QB now" be the driving force between you drafting a potential stud like Lance a year early or a middle of the road guy in Trubisky.

WFT isn't in position to mortgage the next 2 drafts on a "what if" like this.  The "window" for our defense is the next 3-4 years, and this move closes about half of that window.  We have Alex Smith, but he isn't anywhere near the same Alex Smith that KC had when they drafted Mahomes.  That is obvious.  And, I'm sorry, but I don't agree with your premise that Lance is likely to be Mahomes.  The guy is a project with tools, and just isn't worth the gamble, IMO, given WFT's situation.  If RR and company believe he is, fine, but I strongly doubt that.

[Thinking Skins]

BMitch and JP are talking about what I'm posting in here, like the importance of reps in college. So Lance and Jones (and Newman) should be highly suspect. Lance less so because of his elite athleticism and Newman has some athleticism so I'd consider him before Jones. But Jones is last on my list from these three. 

[dswerdlw]

This trade wouldn't bother me if RR and co. believe Lance can be a franchise QB. If this scenario occurs, I would want Smith on the roster in the same role that he played with Mahommes. All that said, I'm afraid that Detroit might be able to get more than what Brugler has us giving up.

[Riggo#44]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

BMitch and JP are talking about what I'm posting in here, like the importance of reps in college. So Lance and Jones (and Newman) should be highly suspect. Lance less so because of his elite athleticism and Newman has some athleticism so I'd consider him before Jones. But Jones is last on my list from these three. 

Everyone points out the lack of college reps for the busts: Trubinsky, Sanchez, etc.

 

They almost never mention Cam Newton or Kyler Murray.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Talk about spoiling the welcome party, if Hurney and Mayhew show up and first thing they do is give away the farm to trade up for Lance, and he's not elite within a few years.

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Everyone points out the lack of college reps for the busts: Trubinsky, Sanchez, etc.

 

They almost never mention Cam Newton or Kyler Murray.

One caller brought that up (and its in my earlier post). They (and Vick) had exceptional athleticism and it caused them to go number 1 overall. Its why i can see the Lance arguments for going number 1 overall. But they still struggle with the throwing side of playing QB. Their running ability just allows them to escape pressure and its more llikely to have a guy wide open. 

[HigSkin]

 

😂😂

 

 

[FrFan]

Matthew Stafford had a left elbow injury to go with thumb, rib, ankle injuries in 2020  🤔

Thanks the Lions rejected our trade offer

[CommDownMan]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

The list of QBs with less than 600 attempts in college who do well in the pros isn't too long: 

 - Alex Smith (587)

 - Mitch Tribusky (577)

 - Kyler Murray (519)

 - Mark Sanchez (487)

 - Michael Vick (343)

 - Cam Newton (232)

 

Is this all time?  1st rounders?  It's a fairly small list so curious (and all 1st rounders).

 

Obviously guys falling later in the draft are less likely to do well and/or be seniors that had more attempts.  However it still strikes me as a super short list.

[86 Snyder]

56 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Why? What if Lance is Patrick Mahomes? The Chiefs traded up for him because they saw something special and they still had Alex Smith under contract for 2 years.

 

Not saying Lance is Mahomes. But you can't let "we need a QB now" be the driving force between you drafting a potential stud like Lance a year early or a middle of the road guy who might be okay in Mac Jones.

Swing for the fences. We aren't winning super bowls in 2021.

 

Exactly, this is the allure of a rookie quarterback.  There is a ceiling that veterans cannot offer.

 

Guys like Carr are a scratched off lottery ticket and the prize revealed is $5.  Whoopie.

 

Also, we have got to get off this notion of top 10, top 15-20, etc.  All that matters is whether they fit the category of "difference maker".  Do they move needle for the franchise?  Can you get to a Super Bowl with them?  

 

Stafford was really on the line and it was highly debateable if he was actually one of those guys.  I personally dont think he is but hes close enough that I can understand why you shoot that shot if no one else is open.

 

Carr??  LOL.  He is most definitely not in that category.  Its the same as trading for Alex Smith a couple years ago and why I was adamently against that deal.  And now we're talking about 2 1sts??  Just no.

 

Watson, Wilson, yes.  Dak probably yes.  Stafford mayyyyybe.  Probably not but its not 0%.

 

If you cant get one of those guys, you got to take a shot in the draft and swing big.  

 

If you want quarterback purgatory where you win 6 to 9 games every year and ensure you never are bad enough to be in position to draft a top guy while also never close to being a real contender, Derek Carr is your guy.  Wentz, Trubisky, etc etc etc

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Is this all time?  1st rounders?  It's a fairly small list so curious (and all 1st rounders).

 

Obviously guys falling later in the draft are less likely to do well and/or be seniors that had more attempts.  However it still strikes me as a super short list.

No this is not all time, but it is since 1999 so that's a pretty recent list. There are other guys who maybe the book isn't written yet or who maybe you could argue did ok. 

 - Matt Cassel

 - Tavaris Jackson

 - AJ Feely

 - Matt Flynn

 - Kyle Allen 

 

Carson Wentz had 612 attempts and Tom Brady had 638 so they are right above the border I set. Go a little higher and you allow for Josh Allen (649) and Aaron Brooks (651). But we're still looking at guys who either had enough mobility to account for their struggles with the passing side of the game or Tom Brady who is the GOAT. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Jericho]

On 2/10/2021 at 9:42 AM, TryTheBeal! said:

That is serious money.  Very happy for HineyHiney!

 

Now let’s nab Darnold for a 3rd, sign Allen Robinson and go “Fat Boy Crazy” in this draft.

 

Whos with me?!?

I think Allen Robinson might not be with you. Don't think he wants to sign up for the Sam Darnold experience.

[Rskins91]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Wilson is going nowhere. Media knows what it’s doing with the QB frenzy and rumor mongering to drive clicks

[CommDownMan]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

BMitch and JP are talking about what I'm posting in here, like the importance of reps in college. So Lance and Jones (and Newman) should be highly suspect. Lance less so because of his elite athleticism and Newman has some athleticism so I'd consider him before Jones. But Jones is last on my list from these three. 

 

In MLB they sign 16 yo kids in the DR and talk about projectability.  And the risk for that can be as low as 10k (I think with caps in place now as high as ~5 mill).

 

Small sample sizes can lead to huge variability, especially when were talking 20yo that still aren't at peak development.

 

Take Kyle Allen as an example.  QBR 95 (2 games), 38.3 (13 games) and 74.5 (4 games). 

 

Total attempts is right around the 600 snap threshold you were talking about.  At the end of the day finding stats (traits? tendencies?) that are projectable are how scouts get paid/promoted, but it's almost like determining a guys ability based on a highlight reel.  Of course they look good when you cherry pick.

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleKy00.htm

edit for reference.

Edited February 11, 2021 by jsharrin55

[Est.1974]

52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

He’s also had 88mil in cash from them in just under 2 years.