2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

If we go with a player with an extensive injury history.  Heck when has that gone wrong for us?  

[Koolblue13]

14 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Was watching Mel and Todd last night and they both said AVT is generating the most buzz of any player of late and they think he does not go beyond #10.

What kind of asshole drafts a guard in the top 10? 

[cakmoney61]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Is anyone surprised that his agent would say this.  The WFT needs to stay away from drafting injured players.  If he's sitting there at #51 (he won't be), then maybe it's worth the risk.  But I hope they don't draft him with pick #19.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Rosenhaus is doing his fiduciary duty in advocating for his client.  He did the same thing for Willis McGahee.  Its a HUGE risk to draft Farley.  Based on what the insider types have been saying, this draft has about 15-16 real first round talents.  Farley is one of those.  Do you take an elite player and hope he stays healthy?

 

I'd blow it off if it weren't for the story about the WFT spending a lot of time on Farley interviews.    Hopefully that effort was in case he drops to 51 not 19.

 

Rosenhaus saying he won't get to 20 is somewhat telegraphing to the league WFT is in the mix. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If we go with a player with an extensive injury history.  Heck when has that gone wrong for us?  

So, to review the last page. 

 

We're drafting a LBer to play safety. 

 

We're drafting a guard.

 

We're drafting a CB with a broken back.

 

Yikes

[benskins26]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Pitts is my favorite player in this draft so I got no problem to make a point to have him go twice in the draft like you got him and early but I don't think that will happen. 😀 

 

I'd go:

 

1. Jax:  Lawrence

2. NYJ:  Wilson

3. SF:  Jones 

4. ATL:  Pitts

5. Cinc:  Chase

6.  MiA:  Sewell

7.  Detroit trade with NE Fields

8. Carolina:  Lance

9. Denver: Parsons

10. Dallas:  Surtain

 

Lots of noise about Dallas wanting Surtain

 

 

 

On another note, Williams is special too IMO.  I think the top 3 RBs in this draft end up stars.  I love Michael Carter and also like Sermon but I see them as a clear peg or two falloff from the top 3. 

 

 

 

agreed on Williams. Maybe it’s my Tar Heel shades but I think Williams is a RB1 type that RR historically liked in Carolina. 19 is a reach for a running back, but he would give the offense a huge boost. Reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry. 

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd blow it off if it weren't for the story about the WFT spending a lot of time on Farley interviews.    Hopefully that effort was in case he drops to 51 not 19.

 

Rosenhaus saying he won't get to 20 is somewhat telegraphing to the league WFT is in the mix. 

yeah, no more injured “value” players in round 1. 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

We're drafting a guard.

 

We're drafting a CB with a broken back.

 

Yikes

 

 

I've gone from being relaxed about pick 19 where there are so many players I like that its almost impossible for me to dislike what they do -- to now having a slow burn concern to hopefully not becoming panicked about it.      The football gods have spoken, I now realize its more possible than I originally thought to be upset draft night. 

 

The other one I'd add for me is trading down in the first and taking Davis Mills.  some say Mills in the 2nd.  Others say he goes in the late first.

 

I don't hate Davis Mills (he IMO is the only one past the top 5 QBs who might end up an average NFL starter) but to me he has a limited upside. Shaw saying he's their best since Luck means nothing to me.  Yes he is better than KJ Costello and Kevin Hogan and the jags Stanford has had post Andrew Luck.  So what?  Luck had freakish talent.  Mills doesn't have freakish talent.  IMO his ceiling is much better than Trask but its not the talent of a top 10 QB IMO. 

 

 

 

[method man]

25 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The fact that he said won't make it to 20 sounds ominious for me, sounds like he's backing WFT's interest like he won't get past us

 

 

 

If there were no medical questions about Caleb Farley, the former Virginia Tech star would be in the mix to be the first cornerback off the board Thursday night, potentially in the top 10.

But Farley has been dealing with a back injury for more than two years, leading to two surgeries since he played his last game in 2019 and leaving his draft stock as one of the biggest question marks among teams as he heads to the green room in Cleveland for the 2021 NFL Draft.

 

Several general managers told NFL.com this week they have no major concerns about the medical report on Farley and believe he'll still go in Round 1. Others say they believe he'll slide to Round 2. Some of those teams are now running through scenarios to decide: At what point in the draft would they be willing to take a calculated risk that Farley's back problems are behind him and land a top-tier talent?

 

The surgeon who performed Farley's second surgery in March, Dr. Robert Watkins, has told clubs that Farley should be cleared before training camp begins in late July. (In a letter, he wrote the procedure went well, that it was a common microdiscectomy and that it had a 16-week recovery.) And Farley's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, has said he doesn't expect his client to get out of Round 1.

"I've had multiple teams tell me that in the middle of the draft, they are going to draft him," Rosenhaus told NFL.com on Monday. "I don't expect him to make it to pick No. 20. I'm convinced, based on my discussions, that he'll go in the first 20 picks."

 

Following Virginia Tech's pro day, which he sat out because of the second surgery, Farley said at a media conference on March 26 that he originally was injured while deadlifting in early 2019, herniating his L5 disc and bulging his S1 joint -- the spinal motion segment at the base of the lumbar spine that helps transfer loads into the pelvis and legs. He battled sciatica (pain that radiates along the sciatic nerve through the hips and buttocks and down each leg) throughout his first-team all-ACC season in 2019, eventually missing the Hokies' last two games, and underwent a discectomy in February 2020 to remove a small part of bone. He recovered and resumed training, but opted out of the 2020 season because of COVID-19 concerns and to prepare for the draft.

 

Then, Farley says, he irritated the S1 joint a couple of months ago, leading to the second microdiscectomy last month. Farley still has some weakness in one of his big toes, suggesting a nerve hasn't fully recovered since the latest procedure, but that's normal at this stage of recovery, which is ongoing.

 

Ultimately, some team will take a leap of faith on an uber-talented player who also had an ACL tear in 2017 and plays a speed position. That medical profile raises short- and long-term questions, even though most teams agree Farley should be ready for the 2021 season, if not by the start of camp. It's just hard to predict how his back will hold up over an NFL season and over the course of his career, especially since he hasn't played a game in 17 months.

In 23 games over two seasons at Virginia Tech, Farley had six interceptions.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/virginia-tech-cb-prospect-caleb-farley-s-stock-one-of-biggest-questions-in-2021-

This is scary. As someone with herniated discs, they will keep flaring up on you, especially in a sport like football. The fact that he is still having nerve issues is not good. I would avoid

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I've gone from being relaxed about pick 19 where there are so many players I like that its almost impossible for me to dislike what they do -- to now having a slow burn concern to hopefully not becoming panicked about it.      The football gods have spoken, I now realize its more possible than I originally thought to be upset draft night. 

 

The other one I'd add for me is trading down in the first and taking Davis Mills.  some say Mills in the 2nd.  Others say he goes in the late first.

 

I don't hate Davis Mills (he IMO is the only one past the top 5 QBs who might end up an average NFL starter) but to me he has a limited upside. Shaw saying he's their best since Luck means nothing to me.  Yes he is better than KJ Costello and Kevin Hogan and the jags Stanford has had post Andrew Luck.  So what?  Luck had freakish talent.  Mills doesn't have freakish talent.  IMO his ceiling is much better than Trask but its not the talent of a top 10 QB IMO. 

 

 

 

Same. I've now gone from "we can do no wrong" to "wait, what, why?

 

Wtf wft

[KDawg]

Our first pick needs to be any of these:

 

Blue Chip Player (The QBs, top 2 OTs, top 3 receivers, Harris, Pitts, Horn/Surtain, I’ll include Etienne because he’s special)

 

Moehrig

 

Darrisaw (not blue chip but could be excellent).

 

Whether we trade up or back or stay is a different convo. Some of these dudes I’d want to move back for. Some we’d need to move up for. I’m not saying where I’d take any of em. 

[“Misdirection”]

Does anything like this exist for this year? Someone here posted this a few seasons ago, found it really helpful to look at position depth as things went on 

 

[LD0506]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Same. I've now gone from "we can do no wrong" to "wait, what, why?

 

Wtf wft

 

We're all there because of our collective angst being Skins fans.

 

I'm still hopeful in spite of our history because I see Ron & Co running things very differently than what we've seen in the past.

 

Benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

For what it’s worth...

 

My prediction:

 

1. Jax - Lawrence

2. NYJ - Wilson

3. SF - Fields

4. ATL - Pitts

5. CIN - should go Sewell but... Chase

6. MIA - Pitts

7. DET - Sewell

8. CAR - Slater

9. DEN - Lance

10. DAL - Parsons 

 

6/7 could swap.

 

7/8 are prime trade territory. 
 

9/10 are dependent on if anyone trades to 7/8

 

 

I meant Waddle at 6.

 

I’ll do a real one when I can sit and have time. But I think 19 is going to be a Moehrig/Najee situation. Is Devonta is there I take him and don’t blink I think. 
 

I don’t think Darrisaw gets beyond the Chargers. 
 

Jones to NE at 15.

 

[Burgold]

What’s your best guess as to when the pick happens? 10:30, 11?

[Cooleyfan1993]

2 minutes ago, Burgold said:

What’s your best guess as to when the pick happens? 10:30, 11?

10:30 sounds like a good estimate, yeah. 

[Going Commando]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If he thinks Koramoah fits his defense and what he wants to do.  That's all I care about.  He would know 100%.  I on the other hand wouldn't.   So if Keim says they like Koramoah and he is on the table.    That's all I need to hear.  If he wants him then the answer is 100% he fits this defense

 

To me, he's a logical fit.  More so than Zaven is.  That was always the rub when I thought about who I would take if my choice was between them.  Head says Wu, heart says Zaven.  It's the same dynamic between Etienne and Harris where Etienne is the cleaner and more natural fit but I can't shake the gut feeling that Najee is just a little bit better.

 

We're going to want to play a lot of cover 1 and 0 and I think Owusu-Koromoah is obviously well suited to doing that and would be much better at it than Zaven.  And the zone drops we'd ask of him would be easy for him.  Plus he still brings the dynamic blitz element, might even be better there than Zaven is truth be told.  He and Moehrig are the two non-CB defenders who bring the absolute most to the pass defense in the draft.  For all of Zaven's gifts for zone coverage, I suspect he'd struggle in man.  Especially on Hs and slots, including detached TEs.  Maybe he'd get good in man coverage over time, but he's never really done it in volume and he'd struggle with it early and it would limit the defense.  Wu will walk in and be ready to rock day one.  He'd play a ton as a rookie and we would see a big immediate return on that pick.

 

There are other things that suggest Owusu-Koromoah is the best fit here.  He's smart and focused and plays with the desired intensity.  He's local to the area.  His body is NFL ready whereas I'm not sure Zaven's is as ready nor do I think he's as mentally mature and ready for the big show.  Health provided, I think Owusu-Koromoah could come in and play a thousand snaps as a rookie and I'm not sure that's true of any other LBer/overhang except Cox and Werner, who are lesser talents.

 

If we want to look immediately right about our pick at 19, then Owusu-Koromoah and Moehrig and Newsome are the best choices barring an unexpected drop from Chase/Waddle/Smith/Darrisaw/Sewell/Slater/Horn/Surtain.

 

The problem for me is I think Etienne is clearly better than them, to say nothing of Harris. Etienne is a day one stud for us too.  He's the right personality for this locker room, he is an easy scheme fit, and he's a bigger, more impactful, and more dynamic talent than all three of them.  He's the potential 13+ AV guy of that group.  He also plays offense providing more delta value for our build since our offense is what sucks and our defense is already championship level.  And on top of that, he's a stud prospect at a position where the depth of the class sucks this year and next year's top end is weaker.  He's likely the best RB prospect in a three year window, depending on how much you like Jonathan Taylor, and I know no one here liked Taylor as much as I did last year.  I think Etienne is a little bit more dynamic than Taylor was while being just as accomplished.

 

And gaming out scenarios, I think we're a much better team with this scenario:

1 - Etienne, 2 - Samuel Jr, 7 - Buddy Johnson, 7 - Damar Hamlin

 

Than we are in any other configuration of the same four positions in those rounds where we eschew BPA in the first and pick Wu, Moehrig, or Newsome.  I think that scenario yields four potential starters and we could spend the rest of our draft chasing talent.

[max21]

7 minutes ago, Burgold said:

What’s your best guess as to when the pick happens? 10:30, 11?

Yeah I was just thinking that, each team in the first gets 10 minutes. Never mind starts at 8, so 10:30 is a good bet

[RWJ]

10 minutes ago, Burgold said:

What’s your best guess as to when the pick happens? 10:30, 11?

Darrisaw at #19, I hope or if he's gone JOK.  If both are gone a trade back.

[CurseReversed]

I remember you talking about Simmons last year SIP.  Its funny I can't think of a single player I have looked at that you had not already posted an extensive write up on.   You and others on this board are so thorough, I can't even calculate how much value it has brought to my time here. I hope WFT pays some of you guys one day.    I would guess there are a lot of people getting paychecks at redskins park that bring far less value to the franchise then some of the posters here. 

 

But back to Simmons, wasn't one of his biggest negatives his lack of physicality?  I don't remember him ever being the kind of intimidator that JOK is. He was more touted on his versatility and athleticism at his size.  I just can't see a guy like JOK disappearing like that in the NFL.  He is going to have an impact somewhere, literally and figuratively.   I can see why teams would want to move him to safety.  It is smarter to take some pounds of of him and let him roam free to hit and make plays, then to add some pounds to him and try to keep him closer to the LOS.        

 

[RWJ]

54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If we go with a player with an extensive injury history.  Heck when has that gone wrong for us?  

I don't think we are going to draft a CB at A#19.  We have bigger needs LB, OL etc..   Rosenhaus.  😆

[seantaylor=god]

7 minutes ago, CurseReversed said:It is smarter to take some pounds of of him and let him roam free to hit and make plays, then to add some pounds to him and try to keep him closer to the LOS.        

 

I don’t agree. I think his current size is fine for the nickel LB role and I think he will naturally put on weight in an NFL program with proper nutrition and as he ages.

 

If you look at his pro day numbers. His arm length, wingspan, etc. all make me think he can get a little bigger. He will never be 250 but we don’t need him to be.

 

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: 6-1.4, 221 pounds, 8 7/8” hands, 33” arms, 78 1/8” wingspan

[Going Commando]

42 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't hate Davis Mills (he IMO is the only one past the top 5 QBs who might end up an average NFL starter) but to me he has a limited upside. Shaw saying he's their best since Luck means nothing to me.  Yes he is better than KJ Costello and Kevin Hogan and the jags Stanford has had post Andrew Luck.  So what?  Luck had freakish talent.  Mills doesn't have freakish talent.  IMO his ceiling is much better than Trask but its not the talent of a top 10 QB IMO. 

 

I've come around on Mills now that I've watched him again and I'm going to proceed to make the case for him.  That kid is talented and I see why he was a five star.  He has a hell of an arm and it is impossible not to see the Peyton Manning-like stature and pocket movement in him.  Plus the kid is implacable and a gamer and that UCLA game was a show of next level bounce back grit and ability.  If that is a preview of what is to come with him, then he could end up being special.

 

I think you are underestimating his upside.  I think it could be sky high and that he might be every bit as talented as the big four QBs, just not clean nor experienced.  His college career didn't go the right way.  He got hurt and this was poised to be a breakout year for him but the Pac 12 season was super janky, plus he had to miss the beginning of the season because of some kind of error with his Covid testing.

 

David Shaw's claims about Davis read way stronger to me.  I read his quotes as him believing Davis was as talented as Luck was, not just that he was the best Stanford QB since Luck.  He was banging the table hard as Hell for Davis.  Wanted him to come back for his senior season, and if he had done so, he said Davis could go from being a second round or fringe first to an early first rounder.  Given the dodgy look of the 2022 QB class, I think there is a good chance that Shaw is right and Davis could have been QB1 next year and one of the few surefire early rd 1 talents.

 

I think there is a good chance that getting Davis in the second round is getting him at the discount of a full round and is buying very low on him.

 

The problem is that his floor is super low.  There is so much he just hasn't seen yet.  QB is a reps position and he is one of the least experienced I can remember.  On top of that, his injury history is brutal. But this is why he's a second rounder and not an early first rounder.  We mitigate his risk in that range, unlike the team who trades up for Trey Lance.

 

And as others have stated, this is a good team for him because we can afford to have him sit and learn behind Fitzpatrick for a year.  He'd be third string most likely, but without the early expectations a first rounder like Fields or Lance would carry.

 

All this is to say I'm fine with picking Mills in the second.  Especially if we do something safe with that first rounder like Etienne.  If we trade back in the first and pick him, that's less ideal but not terrible since we presumably added draft ammo in doing so.  If we use 51 and a 3rd to go up and get him, I'm alright with that if we picked a safe bet at 19.  Straight up picking him at 19 is the only scenario where I'm uncomfortable with the lack of risk mitigation, plus I would be afraid of the early expectations that would place on the kid.  That is not ideal.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Seeing a lot of people on the Twitter answer "Washington" on this chart of options for Detroit at #7. I don't expect it to be that simple of an offer. I think you throw in a 3 or a 4 this year. Or we throw in a 2 and get back a 3 this year. But, you can see ... the buzz around these trade ups aren't a massive mortgage of the future. I have to think if Fields is at #7 and he's this staff's choice for a QB they're doing that trade every day all day ...

 

 

[CurseReversed]

20 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I don’t agree. I think his current size is fine for the nickel LB role and I think he will naturally put on weight in an NFL program with proper nutrition and as he ages.

 

If you look at his pro day numbers. His arm length, wingspan, etc. all make me think he can get a little bigger. He will never be 250 but we don’t need him to be.

 

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah: 6-1.4, 221 pounds, 8 7/8” hands, 33” arms, 78 1/8” wingspan

You might be right that he will put on weight no matter what but I think he is better suited to play at this size and weight or less.  I think first priority is you want him coming downhill on skill players and Athletic QB's in space, and making solid contact.  Add 10 pounds to him and you could see that quick twitch open field skill set start to dwindle.   Thats why I started to like him better then most of the other LB's/S guys because he is the best open field hitter.  That is a delicate skill set and maintaining it at a high level requires a very fine balance of size and athleticism IMO.   Look at how Collins has evolved, sometimes size and strength can work against you. 

 

I Agree that the WFT needs some size in the middle which is why I only started to really like JOK after others suggested the mid round MLB pick to compensate.  That is an ideal scenario to me. 

[RWJ]

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I've come around on Mills now that I've watched him again and I'm going to proceed to make the case for him.  That kid is talented and I see why he was a five star.  He has a hell of an arm and it is impossible not to see the Peyton Manning-like stature and pocket movement in him.  Plus the kid is implacable and a gamer and that UCLA game was a show of next level bounce back grit and ability.  If that is a preview of what is to come with him, then he could end up being special.

 

I think you are underestimating his upside.  I think it could be sky high and that he might be every bit as talented as the big four QBs, just not clean nor experienced.  His college career didn't go the right way.  He got hurt and this was poised to be a breakout year for him but the Pac 12 season was super janky, plus he had to miss the beginning of the season because of some kind of error with his Covid testing.

 

David Shaw's claims about Davis read way stronger to me.  I read his quotes as him believing Davis was as talented as Luck was, not just that he was the best Stanford QB since Luck.  He was banging the table hard as Hell for Davis.  Wanted him to come back for his senior season, and if he had done so, he said Davis could go from being a second round or fringe first to an early first rounder.  Given the dodgy look of the 2022 QB class, I think there is a good chance that Shaw is right and Davis could have been QB1 next year and one of the few surefire early rd 1 talents.

 

I think there is a good chance that getting Davis in the second round is getting him at the discount of a full round and is buying very low on him.

 

The problem is that his floor is super low.  There is so much he just hasn't seen yet.  QB is a reps position and he is one of the least experienced I can remember.  On top of that, his injury history is brutal. But this is why he's a second rounder and not an early first rounder.  We mitigate his risk in that range, unlike the team who trades up for Trey Lance.

 

And as others have stated, this is a good team for him because we can afford to have him sit and learn behind Fitzpatrick for a year.  He'd be third string most likely, but without the early expectations a first rounder like Fields or Lance would carry.

 

All this is to say I'm fine with picking Mills in the second.  Especially if we do something safe with that first rounder like Etienne.  If we trade back in the first and pick him, that's less ideal but not terrible since we presumably added draft ammo in doing so.  If we use 51 and a 3rd to go up and get him, I'm alright with that if we picked a safe bet at 19.  Straight up picking him at 19 is the only scenario where I'm uncomfortable with the lack of risk mitigation, plus I would be afraid of the early expectations that would place on the kid.  That is not ideal.

Hope we can do it in the 3rd but if we draft him in the 2nd, that's cool.