2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[clskinsfan]

Farley is off of my 1st round board. It is a shame because he is a hell of a player. But you cant risk a 1st rounder with 2 back surgeries. You just cant do it. If he falls to 51 though? I am all over it. Hell our 2nd rounders bust consistently anyways. 

48 minutes ago, Burgold said:

What’s your best guess as to when the pick happens? 10:30, 11?

Unless we trade up.

[RWJ]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Seeing a lot of people on the Twitter answer "Washington" on this chart of options for Detroit at #7. I don't expect it to be that simple of an offer. I think you throw in a 3 or a 4 this year. Or we throw in a 2 and get back a 3 this year. But, you can see ... the buzz around these trade ups aren't a massive mortgage of the future. I have to think if Fields is at #7 and he's this staff's choice for a QB they're doing that trade every day all day ...

 

 

If this were the price, I'd have no problems with them trading up for Fields but like you said it would cost more.  That's the issue.   How much more exactly since demand outweighs supply and teams know that.

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I've come around on Mills now that I've watched him again and I'm going to proceed to make the case for him.  That kid is talented and I see why he was a five star.  He has a hell of an arm and it is impossible not to see the Peyton Manning-like stature and pocket movement in him.  Plus the kid is implacable and a gamer and that UCLA game was a show of next level bounce back grit and ability.  If that is a preview of what is to come with him, then he could end up being special.

 

I think you are underestimating his upside.  I think it could be sky high and that he might be every bit as talented as the big four QBs, just not clean nor experienced.  His college career didn't go the right way.  He got hurt and this was poised to be a breakout year for him but the Pac 12 season was super janky, plus he had to miss the beginning of the season because of some kind of error with his Covid testing.

 

David Shaw's claims about Davis read way stronger to me.  I read his quotes as him believing Davis was as talented as Luck was, not just that he was the best Stanford QB since Luck.  He was banging the table hard as Hell for Davis.  Wanted him to come back for his senior season, and if he had done so, he said Davis could go from being a second round or fringe first to an early first rounder.  Given the dodgy look of the 2022 QB class, I think there is a good chance that Shaw is right and Davis could have been QB1 next year and one of the few surefire early rd 1 talents.

 

I think there is a good chance that getting Davis in the second round is getting him at the discount of a full round and is buying very low on him.

 

The problem is that his floor is super low.  There is so much he just hasn't seen yet.  QB is a reps position and he is one of the least experienced I can remember.  On top of that, his injury history is brutal. But this is why he's a second rounder and not an early first rounder.  We mitigate his risk in that range, unlike the team who trades up for Trey Lance.

 

And as others have stated, this is a good team for him because we can afford to have him sit and learn behind Fitzpatrick for a year.  He'd be third string most likely, but without the early expectations a first rounder like Fields or Lance would carry.

 

All this is to say I'm fine with picking Mills in the second.  Especially if we do something safe with that first rounder like Etienne.  If we trade back in the first and pick him, that's less ideal but not terrible since we presumably added draft ammo in doing so.  If we use 51 and a 3rd to go up and get him, I'm alright with that if we picked a safe bet at 19.  Straight up picking him at 19 is the only scenario where I'm uncomfortable with the lack of risk mitigation, plus I would be afraid of the early expectations that would place on the kid.  That is not ideal.

I had never even watched tape on him until a few weeks ago. And once I did I immediately came in here and said this guy looks like a NFL QB to me. If they feel like they need to use a 2nd on him to get I am fine with it. He has some tremendous upside. The other thing to remember about Mills is he has a pretty nasty injury history. I cant see someone using a 1st rounder on a guy with limited tape and 2 ACL's either. 

[Going Commando]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Hope we can do it in the 3rd but if we draft him in the 2nd, that's cool.  

 

He is too good to get in the third.  Trask? Yeah probably in the third.  But I think Davis is going to get picked in the second.  51 actually feels fair to me.

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

If this were the price, I'd have no problems with them trading up for Fields but like you said it would cost more.  That's the issue.   How much more exactly since demand outweighs supply and teams know that.

That'd too little. It would have to be minimum our 1st and a 3rd this year(we have two so probably the 49ers 3rd which is higher)and 1st next year. That's what the Chiefs gave up in 2017 to move up from 27 to 10 to get Mahomes.

[RWJ]

Just now, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He is too good to get in the third.  Trask? Yeah probably in the third.  But I think Davis is going to get picked in the second.  51 actually feels fair to me.

Agreed.  As you mentioned, he looks smooth.  Mechanics, arm strength, touch look good.  He's does pretty well not starring down one WR.  With Fitz here and if we can draft him it's the perfect place for him to sit and learn for a year, maybe two if we resign Fitz for another year. 

[seantaylor=god]

If I had to guess, the QB draft trade market is cooler than what the pundits are reporting.

 

We know teams evaluations are all over the place on Jones, Lance, and Fields.

 

We also know of 3 definite QB need teams (WFT, NE, Chi) and a few more possible (Den has Lock, Carolina- Darnold-Philly Hurts).

 

Rumors were that Carolina and Chicago liked Jones. NE and Philly offense with Cam/Hurts would seem to point to Fields/Lance.

 

If Carolina really likes Jones and he’s gone, and Denver wants to stick with Lock, QBs could slide. Could be only a handful of teams interested and not in giving up multiple picks.

[Riggo-toni]

Am I the only one who thinks Fields will be a bust - this year's Josh Rosen/Dwayne Haskins?

[Going Commando]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I had never even watched tape on him until a few weeks ago. And once I did I immediately came in here and said this guy looks like a NFL QB to me. If they feel like they need to use a 2nd on him to get I am fine with it. He has some tremendous upside. The other thing to remember about Mills is he has a pretty nasty injury history. I cant see someone using a 1st rounder on a guy with limited tape and 2 ACL's either. 

 

Yeah I finally got around to watching him and was pleased by how many easily available cut ups he has. I was digging what I saw and then the UCLA game was what sold him for me.  I love those kinds of performances where the kid shows grit and the ability to work past mistakes and then get locked in and dominate.  That is leadership on display and is far more impressive to see than watching Mac Jones throw for 300 yards and four TDs against a highly ranked opponent where he doesn't face a single snap with adversity.  I want to see a QB rallying the troops and putting the team on his shoulders like that, especially at the college level.

 

I don't know, I think it's kind of exciting that we are rumored to be interested in him.  He would be an exciting pick at 51 to me.  It shows that this regime has a way higher tolerance for risk than I expected--that they are pretty confident.  And best of all, he offers an out from getting trapped in a bidding war for Justin Fields.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That'd too little. It would have to be minimum our 1st and a 3rd this year(we have two so probably the 49ers 3rd which is higher)and 1st next year. That's what the Chiefs gave up in 2017 to move up from 27 to 10 to get Mahomes.

 

I agree, and I have said all along I think 1/3/1 gets it done. But it was just somewhat validating to see the options on Good Morning Football and be less than what I think most of us would expect. If GMF was saying "19, 51, 74, 2022 1st, 2023 1st" for the WFT option, I think I'd react "ah ****, the media thinks it would take an arm and a leg, maybe it isn't that rich but they're hearing something about what it might take and are throwing out stuff like that" ...

 

In this case the media thinks a 1/1 would potentially get it done, which validates my thought that 1/3/1 would do it in reality.

[mhd24]

I think Chicago is more desperate for a QB than we are.  Teams (Carolina, the NFC east) would rather trade with them assuming they can get their 2022 1st rounder.

 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

2 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Am I the only one who thinks Fields will be a bust - this year's Josh Rosen/Dwayne Haskins?

 

Obviously I will support Fields if WFT drafts him but I have a very uneasy feeling about him. I just don’t understand what people see in him that make them think he is a can’t miss prospect. That Clemson game saved his draft stock IMO 

[mhd24]

I think there is a chance Da'Vonta Smith is there at 15.  Would you trade one of our 3rds to get him?

[Master Blaster]

1 minute ago, mhd24 said:

I think there is a chance Da'Vonta Smith is there at 15.  Would you trade one of our 3rds to get him?

No

[JoggingGod]

6 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Am I the only one who thinks Fields will be a bust - this year's Josh Rosen/Dwayne Haskins?

No. That’s Mac Jones.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The Chiefs / Bills trade from 2017 was almost PERFECTLY an even swap if you use the Bill Belicheck trade chart that most seem to be aligned with nowadays.

Pick 10 from Buffalo: 369.09 points

Pick 27 (215.81) + Pick 91 (43.96) + 2018 1st (112.03) = 371.8

 

I think that is a realistic benchmark for what we should expect and it should be "even" with no real overpay, in theory.

 

For example ... a perfectly even trade for us would be:

Detroit Sends 1.7 (425.5) + 4.112 (27.6) = 453.1

Washington sends 1.19 (277.81) + Pick 74 (63.93) + 2022 1st (112.03) = 453.77

 

So 1/4 for 1/3/1

 

There are other ways to skin this cat but throwing in different picks this or next year to make it close in value, but that's the one that stands out as the most likely. 19, 1 pick this year, 1 pick next year, and we get a pick back to even it out this year.

 

WFT Picks this year would be: 1.7 ... 2.51 ... 3.82 ... 4.112 .... 4.124 ... 5.163 ... 7.244 ... 7.246

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Am I the only one who thinks Fields will be a bust - this year's Josh Rosen/Dwayne Haskins?

I like Fields more than Lance for sure. But lets face it. Every QB in this draft could be a bust. Including Lawrence. That is just the nature of drafting QB's.

[Going Commando]

This is the hold onto your butts class where we say damn the torpedoes and just go for the epic haul:

 

Rd 1 - Caleb Farley

Rd 2 - Davis Mills

Rd 3 - Jackson Carman

Rd 3 - Tylan Wallace

Rd 4 - Trey Smith

Rd 5 - Shaun Wade

Rd 7 - Buddy Johnson

Rd 7 - Darius Stills

 

The justification being they can't all bust can they?  The range of outcomes on that class is either a franchise changing draft that springboards us to contention or not a single one of those players makes it to a second contract in the NFL.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

This is the hold onto your butts class where we say damn the torpedoes and just go for the epic haul:

 

Rd 1 - Caleb Farley

Rd 2 - Davis Mills

Rd 3 - Jackson Carman

Rd 3 - Tylan Wallace

Rd 4 - Trey Smith

Rd 5 - Shaun Wade

Rd 7 - Buddy Johnson

Rd 7 - Darius Stills

 

The justification being they can't all bust can they?  The range of outcomes on that class is either a franchise changing draft that springboards us to contention or not a single one of those players makes it to a second contract in the NFL.

Better sign their surgeons as well.

[Panninho]

 

Fields at 32 would be a shocker.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Beat me to it @Panninho  .... has WFT trading to #8 for Lance ... Fields falling to #32. Fascinating.

 

Some of the things that stuck out to me ... the DEs and the order they come off (and frequency in the back half) ... Slater at #21 ...

[Going Commando]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Better sign their surgeons as well.

 

I'll be chugging Mylanta this weekend if we did something like that.  It'd be a fun ride though.

[Lovi]

I'm worried about Dallas getting Parsons.  That dude is a physical stud.  Plus they have a history of taking guys that could just as easily be in jail so I could see it happening.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

29 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Am I the only one who thinks Fields will be a bust - this year's Josh Rosen/Dwayne Haskins?

 

As far as I know Fields doesn't have either of the personality issues that Rosen or Haskins had.  Supposedly all of the QB's near the top of this draft class are coachable.  Which Rosen wasn't.

 

It's harder to call bust on a prospect when they don't have negative intangibles.  I worry about Trey Lance, his film seems the most bust prone, but supposedly he's got the best intangibles in this class.  Rock star teammate, work ethic, desire to improve, magnetic personality, etc etc.  So despite the issues I see on film, Lance's intangibles seem capable of turning things around once he gets higher quality coaching/development.

 

Fields kind of reminds me a little of Marcus Mariota (the college version).  But better ball placement when kept clean though.  The transition from being a pocket passer to a scrambler feels a bit awkward instead of natural.  They both had loads of physical gifts that just didn't quite add up yet to a better QB.  Didn't work for Mariota, although it seems like injuries torpedoed his development.

5 minutes ago, Lovi said:

I'm worried about Dallas getting Parsons.  That dude is a physical stud.  Plus they have a history of taking guys that could just as easily be in jail so I could see it happening.

 

Taking Parsons means they're throwing in the towel on either Leighton Vander Esch or Jaylen Smith.  Most teams are in Nickel.  Can't have those two plus Parsons on the field as none of them are versatile enough in coverage.