The "Re-Opening" the Economy Thread

[Mooka]

Id be making more money through unemployment right now had I lost my job. 

 

Sadly id rather get the **** end of the stick and risk my life just to have something to do for 8 hrs a day. 

 

I bet we're the only country without any hazard pay right now. We ****ing suck.

[Hooper]

The problem is we have no clear plan going forward for the country. We are failing where other countries are not. Hyper-partisan even in these times. No one knows what to believe, who to trust. Some states have more competent governors than others, but these virus doesn't respect borders. The whole thing is way worse than it has to be. Everyone is just waiting on the private sector to work a miracle at this point. It could two years of this in some fashion. Lots of blame to go-around, but man, so disappointing and embarrassing for "the greatest country in the world."

Edited April 23, 2020 by Hooper

[visionary]

 

 

 

[NoCalMike]

4 hours ago, Hooper said:

The problem is we have no clear plan going forward for the country. We are failing where other countries are not. 

 

I know I could probably do the research but I am wondering what, beyond paying 70-90% of workers salaries those gov'ts are doing for businesses and in general that seems to be calming economic anxieties.  Maybe there is more panic than we realize because our media doesn't cover much going on in other countries outside of major events that happen and then broad commentary.  

 

It feels like the current pandemic under the right conditions could cause a reckoning for the style of "capitalism" America has been practicing for the past 35 years but because there are so many voices saying "everything was great before, let's just go back to it" half the country is going to be fine with it and we will go back to that normal. 

[kfrankie]

Here is a chart I prepared from the figures provided by Maryland's Department of Health through 4/23/2020:

 

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

 

Note that there are deaths that are classified as "confirmed" as a result of Covid-19 (column A), and deaths that are classified as "Likely" resulting from Covid-19 (column B).  To be conservative, I've included both classifications in the total number of deaths. In addition, there are an additional 105 confirmed and likely Covid-19 deaths where age information has not been reported. In order to take these deaths into consideration, I determined the percentage of all deaths (column F) for each of the age demographics.  This calculation was performed by taking the total # of deaths from each age demographic in column D, divided it by the total # of age reported deaths (580 + 63 = 643), which provided a decimal which is converted to a pro rata percentage. The resulting pro rata % then displayed in column F, which is used as a multiplier against the 105 unclassified deaths to arrive at a figure (Column E), to be added to the total deaths figure for each age demographic (column G). This calucation for the assignment of the unclassifed deaths assumes that the rates will remain the same for each demographic, which is the only reasonable way to do this.  So the death figures in Column G include (1) confirmed deaths, (2) likely deaths, and (3) each demographic's pro rata share of the 105 "unreported age" deaths.  As you can see (and as we all know), the resulting death rates, which are in Column H, increase with age. The rates go up substantially starting with the age 60-69 demographic.However, age is the only variable included in this chart.

 

What these figures do not tell us is whether the deceased individuals from these demographics suffered from comorbidity, i.e. one of the additional underlying health conditions commonly associated with death from the virus such as existing respiratory disease, coronary artery disease, immune deficiencies, diabetes, etc. For example, of 15.1 deaths (column G) resulting from the 2604 reported cases in the age 30-39 demographic, it is unclear how many of the 15.1 individuals had an underlying disease that contributed to their death. But it is likely that a number of those 15.1 individuals did have an underlying condition. Think of it this way-- out of the 2604 reported cases, there are certainly several individuals that had an existing respiratory disease, diabetes, or some sort of disease affecting their immune system.  It stands to reason that a higher percentage of those people would die upon contracting Covid-19, therefore its likely that 1 or more of the 15.1 had a comorbidity. However, if you do not have an underlying health condition, the death rate figures in Column H are likely much lower.  Column H represents the ceiling.  Said otherwise, this chart represents the highest possible mortality rate for a person in a particular age demographic that is not suffering from an underlying health condition.  For those that do have an underlying health condition, the death rates will obviously be higher than the percentage rates contained in Column H.

 

So the upshot from this is up to you, as far as whether the risk of infection, based on Maryland's reporting, exceeds the risk associated with staying sheltered in place.  Also note that any "unreported" cases of infection, which are presumably those individuals that had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic or believed they simply had the flu or a bad cold, would only drive the death rate % figures in Column H lower. In fact, some reports indicated that the number of actual infections could be 2x, 3x, 5x, or 10x the reported figures.  On the flip side, there could be some deaths resulting from Covid-19 that were not reported as "confirmed" or "likely" (i.e. "improperly classified" as another ailment) for whatever reason.  But on the whole, the sheer number of likely "unreported" infections would more than cancel out any increase in the percentage rate of death resulting from "improperly classified" deaths. After all, if you die of Covid-19 its going to be pretty obvious that you had some sort of respiratory symptoms prior to death, so any reasonable medical professional should make that connection.

 

But what the hell do I know.

[kfrankie]

38 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I know I could probably do the research but I am wondering what, beyond paying 70-90% of workers salaries those gov'ts are doing for businesses and in general that seems to be calming economic anxieties.  Maybe there is more panic than we realize because our media doesn't cover much going on in other countries outside of major events that happen and then broad commentary.  

 

It feels like the current pandemic under the right conditions could cause a reckoning for the style of "capitalism" America has been practicing for the past 35 years but because there are so many voices saying "everything was great before, let's just go back to it" half the country is going to be fine with it and we will go back to that normal. 

 

I can tell you from my experience with my employer (I still go into the office due to falling under an exemption), many employees feel a good degree of comfort knowing that the company has a safety net provided by the payroll loan that was provided by the government.  As a result, layoffs have been minimal, with only a couple of non-essential employees released and now eligible for unemployment and COBRA benefits. And those employees will be welcomed back once things fully re-open. I know that the knee jerk reaction is, when corporations receive bailout money, to wonder why those funds are not instead paid directly to employees by way of some sort of trust, and not directly to the corporation, to prevent corporate fat cats from hoarding the dough for themselves. But if that occurred, many corporations would be unable to pay their overhead expenses due to decreased revenues, and would be forced to make more substantial layoffs. So generally speaking, the revenue coming in can be applied to overhead expenses and the costs of services rendered/products supplied by upstream vendors and then sold downstream, and then the bailout money is used to fund any shortage in payroll. Its good to keep the upstream supplier paid, so that they can stay afloat, and its good for the corporation received the bailout money.  So this should really be viewed as corporate bailout money at all.  Supporting the small business directly has allowed many Americans to remain employed despite decreased production, and many people will also have jobs to return to assuming the economy can reopen without the next 3 months.

[LD0506]

[techboy]

Magnetism might be a bridge too far, but they're spot on when it comes to virology, apparently.

[LD0506]

[Corcaigh]

12 hours ago, techboy said:

Magnetism might be a bridge too far, but they're spot on when it comes to virology, apparently.

 

I expect the organization will fracture into groups called the Insane Clown Posse and the Rational Clown Posse.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Corcaigh

[PeterMP]

16 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I know I could probably do the research but I am wondering what, beyond paying 70-90% of workers salaries those gov'ts are doing for businesses and in general that seems to be calming economic anxieties.  Maybe there is more panic than we realize because our media doesn't cover much going on in other countries outside of major events that happen and then broad commentary.  

 

It feels like the current pandemic under the right conditions could cause a reckoning for the style of "capitalism" America has been practicing for the past 35 years but because there are so many voices saying "everything was great before, let's just go back to it" half the country is going to be fine with it and we will go back to that normal. 

 

I think essentially every country is in the same situation, even ones that handled it well at first.

 

Even in Germany the stock market is significantly down and while having a limited reopening is still very much pushing social distancing and Merkel is warning they are on thinnest of edges.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/europe/merkel-coronavirus-social-distancing-europe-intl/index.html

 

One thing that has become clear is that we (as the world) don't currently have the means or infrastructure to test in a way needed to keep this from breaking out if things re-open, to track it, or to study the possibility of re-infection robustly.  If you were on it early (e.g. S. Korea and Germany), it was easier to get the supplies to do robust testing.  But the normal back log/excess of those supplies have now been consumed and there isn't currenlty enough of a global infrastructure to produce those supplies at the rate needed for large developed countries to track the disease and keep it under control if they re-open.

 

And that's realistically an issue every country is going to have until/unless we do something to drastically ramp up those industries to generate supplies/equipment.

Edited April 24, 2020 by PeterMP

[FanboyOf91]

 

[kfrankie]

4 hours ago, FanboyOf91 said:

 

 

I don't think contact tracing will be the answer here. If the virus does not subside considerably by June 1, I think we need to consider selective quarantining.  The more I think about it, the most critical thing we need to do is protect those individuals that have underlying health conditions from those in the general public that do not have a underlying health condition.  That means quarantining individuals that most at risk that fall generally into these categories:

 

(1) Over the age of 70;

(2) Moderate to severe ashma

(3) CPOD

(4) Moderate to severe coronary artery disease

(5) Diabetes

(6) Immune system illnesses

(7) Several other conditions/diseases that I don't have the time to list

 

I'm confident that otherwise healthy individuals under the age of 50 have very little chance of dying after contracting Covid-19. After all, there reports coming out now that around 25% of those infected never show symptoms.  https://foxbaltimore.com/news/coronavirus/new-research-suggests-many-people-have-had-covid-19-but-showed-no-symptoms  This figure does not include those individuals that have mild symptoms (I have "the sniffles"), or those that have moderate symptoms (i had "the flu" back in February, even though i got a flu shot).  At any rate, the professionals just need to keep doing what they can. One thing I see missing from the data is the percentage of infected that do not die, but suffer some sort of permanent lung damage. We've seen the anecdotal evidence of this, but I don't believe there's been any sort of effort to collect data and determine the risk. We need to see something reliable on this before opening things up.  It's one thing to die, and its quite another to have to live for the next 25 years with 50% of your lung capacity.

[LD0506]

[Toe Jam]

Here at the Grand Canyon, both concessionaires continue to push back their reopening dates. Looking at mid-June as the most likely timeframe now. Haven’t heard anything about when the park gates may open. Obviously it’ll be before the businesses ramp up. 
 

It’s been rather nice not having to deal with large hoards of tourists during a pandemic. On the flip side, almost everyone has been furloughed and I feel for folks. 
 

Should be a very unusual and challenging summer for all of us in the hospitality industry. 
 

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Toe Jam

[Springfield]

5 minutes ago, Toe Jam said:

Here at the Grand Canyon, both concessionaires continue to push back their reopening dates. Looking at mid-June as the most likely timeframe now. Haven’t heard anything about when the park gates may open. Obviously it’ll be before the businesses ramp up. 
 

It’s been rather nice not having to deal with large hoards of tourists during a pandemic. On the flip side, almost everyone has been furloughed and I feel for folks. 
 

Should be a very unusual and challenging summer for all of us in the hospitality industry. 
 

 

Holy ****.  Toe Jam?  It’s like a Sasquatch sighting.

[China]

WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection

 

The World Health Organization is warning that people who have had Covid-19 are not necessarily immune by the presence of antibodies from getting the virus again.

 

"There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday.

 

It cautions against governments that are considering issuing so-called "immunity passports" to people who have had Covid-19, assuming they are safe to resume normal life.

"At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an 'immunity passport' or 'risk-free certificate,' " WHO said.

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove from WHO has previously said it's not known whether people who have been exposed to the virus become completely immune. The new WHO brief underscores that stance, and jibes with other scientific statements about the idea of developing immunity.

 

Click on the link for the full article

Edited April 26, 2020 by China

[Koala]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:39 PM, kfrankie said:

 

I don't think contact tracing will be the answer here. If the virus does not subside considerably by June 1, I think we need to consider selective quarantining.  The more I think about it, the most critical thing we need to do is protect those individuals that have underlying health conditions from those in the general public that do not have a underlying health condition.  That means quarantining individuals that most at risk that fall generally into these categories:

 

(1) Over the age of 70;

(2) Moderate to severe ashma

(3) CPOD

(4) Moderate to severe coronary artery disease

(5) Diabetes

(6) Immune system illnesses

(7) Several other conditions/diseases that I don't have the time to list

 

I'm confident that otherwise healthy individuals under the age of 50 have very little chance of dying after contracting Covid-19. After all, there reports coming out now that around 25% of those infected never show symptoms.  https://foxbaltimore.com/news/coronavirus/new-research-suggests-many-people-have-had-covid-19-but-showed-no-symptoms  This figure does not include those individuals that have mild symptoms (I have "the sniffles"), or those that have moderate symptoms (i had "the flu" back in February, even though i got a flu shot).  At any rate, the professionals just need to keep doing what they can. One thing I see missing from the data is the percentage of infected that do not die, but suffer some sort of permanent lung damage. We've seen the anecdotal evidence of this, but I don't believe there's been any sort of effort to collect data and determine the risk. We need to see something reliable on this before opening things up.  It's one thing to die, and its quite another to have to live for the next 25 years with 50% of your lung capacity.

Selective quarantines will not work with a virus as contagious as COVID 19.  I dunno the exact numbers, but just about every household in America has someone with Diabetes or high blood pressure or asthma in it.   For the quarantine to be useful, all members of the household would have to be quarantined.  Which just gets us back where we are now, a lockdown for everyone.  

 

If the population not at risk is allowed to resume life as normal, the virus will spread  even faster and inevitably will spread to the at-risk population.  Unless you take unthinkable quarantine measures like physically separate the entire populations of those at risk from those not at risk,  into separate areas of the country (and guarding that border), there is just no way to make a selective quarantine useful.  

[FanboyOf91]

 

[Larry]

Quote

 

Assessing how deep support for state authority is can be much more difficult than how broad assessing support for state authority is

Polls can register strong claims of support for the state as 10 000s of individual choices to evade it lead to accelerating erosion of state power

 

 

How many people routinely violate speed limits?  How many say we should raise them?  

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Larry

[Renegade7]

13 hours ago, China said:

WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection

 

The World Health Organization is warning that people who have had Covid-19 are not necessarily immune by the presence of antibodies from getting the virus again.

 

"There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday.

 

It cautions against governments that are considering issuing so-called "immunity passports" to people who have had Covid-19, assuming they are safe to resume normal life.

"At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an 'immunity passport' or 'risk-free certificate,' " WHO said.

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove from WHO has previously said it's not known whether people who have been exposed to the virus become completely immune. The new WHO brief underscores that stance, and jibes with other scientific statements about the idea of developing immunity.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Need more time to confirm this versus assuming, that's fair, thankfully it's not mutating fast, so chance the antibodies will work.

 

Outside of intentionally giving this to someone again that just got out the hospital from it, how do you confirm a survivor who had a ventilator can or can't get it twice? 

 

It feels alarmist and anxiety inducing for our civilization to suggest we can get it twice so still stay home, somebody needs to figure out how to phrase this folks don't freak out or give up.

[LD0506]

Quote

Someday, I’m going to die.

This, I grudgingly accept. I have no idea how it’s going to happen. Maybe I will die of having a tree fall on me, of eating tainted shellfish, or of being struck by lightning. But this much I guarantee. I will not die of having wagered my life that TV carnival barkers, political halfwits and MAGA-hat-wearing geniuses know more than experts with R.N.s, M.D.s, and Ph.D.s after their names.

In other words, I will not die of stupid.

 

 

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2020/04/26/i-will-not-die-of-stupid-column/?fbclid=IwAR1ss-jCZYqu9ezeQS5VVvPBZavYkPtF8bqP18RliULubjBLXba7zeMxqk8

[Springfield]

To bring this back to reality, we are currently in discussions at our shop on how to "reopen".  We've never been truly closed, but we did close our office to customers and split our entire staff into two teams.  Lucky for my staff and I, our owner is basically allowing us to decide what we think is best.  Our owner is at high risk for Covid complications so he's been hands off, working at home to try and help.

 

So for me, I've come up with a few different ideals on how to "reopen".

1. There has to be a conclusive downward tend of cases.  I prefer the governors requirement of two weeks straight of decline, but I'm open to my other manager's input.

2. Once our office is open, the seating for the customers is to be removed.

3. Every customer must be required to wear a face covering.

4. Sneeze guards at every workstation that has customer interaction.

5. I don't know if it's possible, but I'd love to use our technician's pyrometers to test every person's temperature upon entering.  Just don't know if this is accurate at all.

[twa]

probably be best to just buy a non contact thermometer,pyrometers would work but accuracy at lower temps is less certain I would think since the human temp scale you are focused on is narrow

[LadySkinsFan]

There were less cars in the apartment complex parking lots yesterday and today. More people are out and about, some wearing face masks, some not. Abbott is opening up Texas so I'm staying home and only walking Dancer. I expect to see a big surge of sickness in 2-4 weeks.