BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[StillUnknown]

 

Nevermind the fact that impeachment was absolutely justified

[GhostofSparta]

7 hours ago, Destino said:

Less populated areas have built in social distancing.  Unless they get together in restaurants/bars or church they don’t spend too much time in crowded groups.

Churches, or Walmart/The Dollar Store, or Farmer's Markets in states where they haven't been cancelled, or the occasional "The Corona Virus is a hoax so let's show the government we know better by having everybody in the neighborhood over to my house" Party.

 

Normally you'd be right about rural areas having an advantage, but this time especially they seem to be going out of their way to negate it in every possible way.

[Renegade7]

7 hours ago, Destino said:

Less populated areas have built in social distancing.  Unless they get together in restaurants/bars or church they don’t spend too much time in crowded groups.  

 

Rural areas are also taking longer to buyin and less likely to use something like Instacart for home deliveries.  I agree with limited exposure, but argument can be made it will also be harder to not come out the house if need be.

 

Honestly, in hoping for the best because the rural hospitals we're already struggling before this. We won't know until we know, but not all churches have zoom already set up, either.

 

It makes total sense that the highest numbers are in largest areas and largest areas that took longest to self-isolate.  But the curve pattern is looking awful familiar seems no matter where you look.

 

That may be my one post in this thread today, trying to keep my parents in the house and my wife and I inside for at least 14 days, shooting for whole month of April, to at minimum limit exposure and get passed the 14 incubation period just to feel more peace of mind.  It took skype for my mom to get used to not seeing me, it was a tough combo that hasn't really ended yet. They still calling this a blue state problem in some parts of Trump country.

[Dan T.]

3 minutes ago, GhostofSparta said:

Churches, or Walmart/The Dollar Store, or Farmer's Markets in states where they haven't been cancelled, or the occasional "The Corona Virus is a hoax so let's show the government we know better by having everybody in the neighborhood over to my house" Party.

 

Normally you'd be right about rural areas having an advantage, but this time especially they seem to be going out of their way to negate it in every possible way.

 

It never looks good to paint with so broad a brush.

[twa]

45 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

I skipped that last White House dog and pony show press briefing. Why the **** was the My Pillow Guy there, other than for a fresh set of lips to kiss Donald Trump's ass? 

 

Was he donating pillows to hospitals? Money?  Seriously, was there a legitimate reason he was there related to the Coronavirus issue?

 

his factory shifted to making masks 

[Renegade7]

5 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

It never looks good to paint with so broad a brush.

 

You know what, to try to keep the peace, you are right.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-health-vs-economy-trump-poll/

[GhostofSparta]

10 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

It never looks good to paint with so broad a brush.

Fair enough. I'll stick to my personal experience and simply say "People in rural Western PA seem to be mostly ignoring Shelter in Place warnings and spending lots of time in grocery stores because there's nowhere else to gather and get the social interaction they're missing."

[Destino]

8 minutes ago, GhostofSparta said:

Fair enough. I'll stick to my personal experience and simply say "People in rural Western PA seem to be mostly ignoring Shelter in Place warnings and spending lots of time in grocery stores because there's nowhere else to gather and get the social interaction they're missing."

Grocery stores in the metro dc area aren’t exactly empty either.  I think a lot of people would rather risk a weekly or biweekly trip to the store than depend on delivered food that brings a steady stream of humans to their door and comes in potentially infectious packaging.  Plus it’s cheaper, a great deal cheaper, to make your own meals and there’s a lot of economic anxiety right now.  

[Momma There Goes That Man]

My wife is very outgoing which fits well with me because I’m introverted. She does all the talking and I do all the listening. She’s one of those that has a million friends and knows everybody and when she goes out bumps into people she knows and talks to them while I stand there having no idea who it is. When we finish I’m like “who was that” and she’s like “they had the locker next to you for 3 years in high school how do you not know them?” 
 

anyway, quarantine has been rough on her cuz she hasn’t been able to interact with anyone except me. So she’s started having car parties. Basically a friend or two will come over and she sits on the trunk of her car in our driveway and they will park on the street a good 10ft away and sit on their cars or roll down the window and talk. They each bring some wine or som snacks and they’ll just  hang for a bit. Kinda like what would happen if they were at each other’s houses just without eating and drinking from a shared pizza or snack etc 

 

seems to be working pretty well. 

[GhostofSparta]

1 minute ago, Destino said:

Grocery stores in the metro dc area aren’t exactly empty either.  I think a lot of people would rather risk a weekly or biweekly trip to the store than depend on delivered food that brings a steady stream of humans to their door and comes in potentially infectious packaging.  Plus it’s cheaper, a great deal cheaper, to make your own meals and there’s a lot of economic anxiety right now.  

Working in a grocery retailer I get why we're still open and that people need to shop. The people that blow my mind are the ones (usually older, but not always) that are in there at least every other day if not more often. Or the ones that will spend literal hours in the same spot talking to people (this was the norm before, it just stands out more now), or the ones where both parents are in the store shopping with the kids instead of 1 parent doing it while the other stays at home with the kids.

 

Not everyone that's currently out in public needs to be shamed, I get that. I can tell who the nurses are coming in after their shift for groceries and other supplies, and I totally get that. I can understand the single parents bringing in their small kids because they don't have a choice. I understand people need their meds from the pharmacy. I know some people have limited budgets or even SNAP/WIC/SSI/etc. and have to do 1-2 large shopping trips a month because of limited travel options and that it's a time consuming process.

 

Sure, part of it is that I'm jealous because I'm considered "essential" and don't get to enjoy a few paid weeks off to stay in my house. As an introvert, that's the dream, but I know my job can't be done from home, so I get to go in to work day after day while this thing keeps spreading. I'm partially worried about getting sick, but mostly it's the part of my brain screaming at me every day that despite needing to do my job, I'm probably going to end up being the reason somebody dies from this (because they either got it from me when I didn't know I had it, or got it from me before I could officially be tested for it). I don't know anybody life story (except the ones that tell me every detail of their life after they ask for help finding 1 item), but some people take actions that make it difficult for me not to judge them subconsciously.

 

It's super easy to trash stupid college kids who won't stay away from the beach on Spring Break. They're young and dumb, and it's 1 big easy to point out situation so they make an easy target. People get a lot more defensive when they're being called out for doing the everyday things that they could be avoiding by aren't because of vague justifications they can easily make up.

[Corcaigh]

46 minutes ago, twa said:

 

his factory shifted to making masks 

 

There's probably a joke about his customers already having enough pillow case hoods.

[Jumbo]

there's no way i am going to forego my wal-mart socializing and dating pool just cuz of the threat of a potential personally dangerous outcome

 

hell, that's always been the case with some of the ladies i've enjoyed dating....i like scary ladies....if you're not living on the edge you're taking up too much space

 

 

[Corcaigh]

Just now, Jumbo said:

there's no way i am going to forego my wal-mart socializing and dating pool just cuz of the threat of a potential personally dangerous outcome

 

 

 

Why do you need to go to Wal Mart to find dates? Don't your sisters still live with you?

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Trump knows no bounds when it comes to kissing his own ass.  But that by far was one of the oddest moments at a presser given the current environment.  

 

Can we please stop calling these "press conferences" and start calling them what they actually are? They're makeshift rallies. Trump has to get his adoration fix in somehow. 

[Dan T.]

This is an account of the small town of Albany, Georgia being overrun with cases of Coronavirus after a large funeral attended by upwards of 200 people occurred  just days before the concept of social distancing was introduced to the nation as a defense against the spread..

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/days-funeral-georgia-town-coronavirus-123120318.html

 

One part of it struck me - how quickly hospitals were overwhelmed when cases exploded "like a bomb:"  

 

The Phoebe Putney Health System, the main health care provider there, had a 6 month supply of PPE.  It lasted 7 days.

Keep that in mind the next time Trump claims that New York hospitals are overstating their need for PPE or implies that hospital employees are stealing it.

[China]

Police report drop in violent crime, burglaries amid coronavirus pandemic

 

Philadelphia police listed some statistics on Facebook: total violent crime is down, total property crime is down, and residential and commercial burglaries are also down from the end of February through mid-March. 

 

Violent Crime:  -6%

Property Crime: -14%

Residential Burglary: - -13%

Commercial Burglary: -23%

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Corcaigh]

Lot's of interesting dynamics in the 'crime world'. One issue is the 'right to a speedy trial' when judges do not want to be in courtrooms. And the accused are worried about being confined.

[China]

Can we get Trump to wear a mask, permanently?  Or maybe just sew his lips shut.

 

CDC may urge Americans to cover faces in public: report

 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may urge Americans to cover their faces in public to protect themselves and others amid the coronavirus pandemic, The Washington Post is reporting.

 

The recommendation, if approved, would call for Americans to use cloth coverings instead of surgical and N95 masks, which have been in short supply at hospitals and medical facilities across the country, the Post noted, adding that the coverings could potentially lower the risk of an infected person transmitting the virus.

 

Talks are still ongoing, an anonymous federal official confirmed to the newspaper.

 

A second official said that the recommendation could help “flatten the curve” of the virus's spread. 

 

The CDC does not currently recommend that healthy people wear masks or coverings over their face, instead recommending that everyone engage in social distancing and stand at least six feet apart.

 

President Trump, asked Monday at the daily White House briefing if everyone should wear nonmedical masks, told reporters that the option is "certainly something we could discuss” and that “it could be something like that for a limited period of time.”

 

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb recommended the change as the lead author of a pandemic response plan published Sunday by the American Enterprise Institute. The report says that “everyone, including people without symptoms, should be encouraged to wear nonmedical fabric face masks while in public.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

[PCS]

 

This rural America Western style.  Whole bunch of wide spots in the road with an odd,(outstanding,but remote),ski resort thrown in. It is not uncommon during the Spring,Summer,and Early Fall months to hear "Damn Tourists" being whispered amongst the locals. 

[China]

'It's like a sick experiment': Arizona lags behind as states order residents to stay home

 

But while more than 25 states and dozens of counties have ordered residents to stay home, 10 states, including Arizona, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, have no such orders at the state, county or city level.

 

“Many of you have asked if or when the state will move towards a stay-at-home policy,” Arizona’s governor, Doug Ducey, a Republican, said at a 23 March press conference. “The answer is, not at this time.”

 

He added: “The CDC is not there yet. Arizona is not there yet. We’re not at the same stage as other states.”

 

Ducey has barred cities and counties from issuing their own shelter-in-place orders, a move which has frustrated mayors in the state who would like to take more aggressive steps.

 

As of Sunday morning, Arizona had 919 confirmed Covid-19 cases, up 18% from the day before. But that is likely to be a severe undercount. Due to testing delays and shortages, fewer than 14,000 tests had been conducted in the state, which is home to more than 7 million.

 

“I am very concerned that we are behind the curve on this one,” said Dr Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association. Too many communities were thinking “it’s not here yet, we have time”, Benjamin said, when instead they should be trying to “get ahead of it in a defensive manner”.

 

Last week, a leading public health official in Arizona’s largest county announced she would not have recommended closing schools, libraries and restaurants.

 

“I would try to minimize spread, maximize distance, but keep facilities open because I think this is going to be a long haul,” said Dr Rebecca Sunenshine, the Maricopa county department of public health’s medical director for disease control, at a public meeting on 23 March.

 

Adding to the chaos, the state emergency management director resigned this weekend, citing a “lack of communication and transparency” in Arizona’s Covid-19 response, according to the Arizona Republic.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

This is an account of the small town of Albany, Georgia being overrun with cases of Coronavirus after a large funeral attended by upwards of 200 people occurred  just days before the concept of social distancing was introduced to the nation as a defense against the spread..

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/days-funeral-georgia-town-coronavirus-123120318.html

 

One part of it struck me - how quickly hospitals were overwhelmed when cases exploded "like a bomb:"  

 

The Phoebe Putney Health System, the main health care provider there, had a 6 month supply of PPE.  It lasted 7 days.

Keep that in mind the next time Trump claims that New York hospitals are overstating their need for PPE or implies that hospital employees are stealing it.

 

I don't think Trump has the brain capacity to understand things like exponential growth. It's simply outside of the realm of his capabilities. Couple that with his propensity for creating alternative realities and living in them and you have a recipe for pure, unbridled ignorance. I mean, even in that call with a governor which wasn't supposed to be public he still claimed he didn't know anything about problems with testing. He repeated public talking points (we've tested more than any other country) on a private phone call. I think he really believes his own reality. He's truly delusional. Scary as ****. 

[spjunkies]

 

[tshile]

 

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

1 hour ago, GhostofSparta said:

Churches, or Walmart/The Dollar Store, or Farmer's Markets in states where they haven't been cancelled, or the occasional "The Corona Virus is a hoax so let's show the government we know better by having everybody in the neighborhood over to my house" Party.

 

Normally you'd be right about rural areas having an advantage, but this time especially they seem to be going out of their way to negate it in every possible way.

As someone that lives in a rural area and whose social circle (professionally and personally) consists mostly of people in rural areas, this is exactly my experience. 
 

they all echo the “is the cure worse than the disease?” Type mentality in shutdown vs economic impact

 

its sad because if this is as bad as the models have suggested, it’s very likely many of these people will become very sick and maybe die. Majority of them fall into some sort of high-risk category, and they have been running around for 3 weeks acting like this is all a big joke. 
 

these people have quite literally taken their cues from President Trump. Which is why I lay a lot of blame on him - he created a segment of the population that appeals to him only as an authority on “issues”.  He created and pushed the mentality they’ve had. 
 

so you see them or hear about them and think it’s sad, but at the end of the day it’s born of their own ignorance. I liken it to a smoker getting lung cancer - you knew better and chose anyways (i say this as a smoker)

 

I just hope the models are wrong. It’ll mean these people adapt a “I told you so” mentality cause that’s about the extent of their critical thinking, but at least they won’t die. 

 

Edit: I quoted the wrong post and tried to fix it and now it’s all jacked up oh well

Edited March 31, 2020 by tshile

[PeterMP]

On 3/30/2020 at 12:26 PM, No Excuses said:

This article isn't saying what you think it is. For COVID-19, the question of initial viral exposure to disease severity is still open-ended:

 

 

There's also this:

 

 

 

The last bolded part, I'm not following. It's well accepted among virologists that the viral dose you are initially exposed to makes a difference in the kind of immune response the body initiates for respiratory diseases. There are already well characterized differences in the viral load of different COVID-19 patients and we know of several super-spreader clusters throughout the world. We probably don't even know if people can be asymptomatic and still be super-spreaders, but that may have been the case with Patient 31 in South Korea who led to the largest cluster of disease in the country.

 

So does this mostly apply to doctors and nurses who might be exposed to much higher viral loads? Probably. But quite literally every little bit of intervention is necessary right now until we learn more about how this virus behaves.

 

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

 

 

Your post didn't say initial viral exposure (which is generally called the exposure dose).  It said viral load, which is generally how much of the virus a person has in their body during the actual infection.  How much is the virus replicating in the person and so how much does the person have?  That's the viral load.

 

I perfectly understood what what I posted was saying.  I didn't understand your post because you used the wrong words to describe what you were saying.

 

For the flu and things like that, there is a small effect with the exposure dose and severity of the disease, but even for the flu, it is a small effect and other things like age and pre-existing conditions are much more important.  And for this disease effects of age, etc are even more magnified.  Over a huge range of viral exposure dose, there probably is a difference in terms of the severity of the disease, but practically, for the general public that response is probably irrelevant to people's health outcomes.   And certainly, there's no evidence of it.

 

More fundamentally, you keep ignoring the point that the issue with masks (and anything worn on the face) is that for untrained and undisciplined people, that aren't likely going to be able to change out their masks regularly, it is an assumption that wearing a mask actually is protection and doesn't actually result in them touching their face and things that are going to end up touching their face a lot more.  You want to see somebody get a large viral exposure dose, have them put their mask down on something where a lot of the virus is, get it on the mask, and then put the mask back on their face.  That would be worse than the normal behavior with a hand (i.e. you touch something with the virus on it and then touch your face) because of the constant contact of the mask.  And for those people, wearing a mask actually increases risks.

 

And remember, we're talking about people that are generally having issues with social distancing

Edited March 31, 2020 by PeterMP

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Can we please stop calling these "press conferences" and start calling them what they actually are? They're makeshift rallies. Trump has to get his adoration fix in somehow. 

No doubt, when he started yesterday I said to my wife, "this might be his first reasonable presser he's done yet" and within a few minutes, he was having it out with the media.  Should have known I spoke to soon.