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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Where's that graph coming from?  

 

I took the figures from the below website, and then inputted my own formulas to determine the number of new cases and percentage increase.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

This website is more or less consistent with the data reported by the Johns Hopkins website, but provides some additional data.

Edited by kfrankie
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From 3/10/2020 to 3/29/2020, these are the figures:

Date               Total Infects.  New Infects.   % increase

image.png.c84611276859da50ee8573d5acf9fc71.png

 

As of now, the number of new infections for today is 16,198.  Most states have reported their numbers already, and I'm not sure if some states report their numbers more than once during the day, a few more could jump up.  Washington State still hasn't reported, neither has Colorado.

 

If the tracking holds, it could be at ~20k or so, which would be another drop in the daily rate of increase.

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I don't even know that I trust the death numbers.  There are people dying with presumed covid but who didn't have testing who aren't counted in total numbers.  

 

I'm not sure we'll ever have a truly accurate assessment of what this virus is doing. 

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29 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Total infections is one thing.

 

Hospital capacity and deaths are the real numbers.

 

I feel very comfortable stating there are 2M cases active in the states right now.  If they stay home and recover, they don’t really matter.

 

Here are the reported deaths over the same 20 day period (3/10/20 - 3/29/20):

Total Deaths   New Deaths    Rate of Increase

image.png.236c5d303b58fe60b87a75536b5b8189.png

 

So no real discernible trend, other than that the % jumped up on 3/18/20 to 36%, and has been between 25%-40% over the past 14 days. 

 

If the hospitals are overrun, I don't think that will affect the number of new cases. Most of the country is now on stay at home restrictions, so if you have a family member or a roommate that brings the infection home, you'll likely get it anyway before that person becomes symptomatic and goes to the hospital 5 days later (or whenever).  If they're told to go home because there's no capacity, the rest of the household is probably already exposed.  It shouldn't spread beyond the single household in most cases though, if people are adhering to the stay at home orders.

 

8 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

I don't even know that I trust the death numbers.  There are people dying with presumed covid but who didn't have testing who aren't counted in total numbers.  

 

I'm not sure we'll ever have a truly accurate assessment of what this virus is doing. 

 

Well, if that's the case, and the reported infections and death numbers are worthless, then everyone is ****ed.

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I don't think the numbers are totally worthless.  I am still refreshing all the monitoring sites as many times as I can.  I also know that the numbers reported by my state health department and the numbers actually seen in my hospital don't line up.  Not even particularly close.  

 

I also know that testing capacity varies dramatically among different states/cities/hospitals.  At many centers, tests are being saved for patients for whom the result will make a significant difference in treatment/disposition.  For many, the treatment will be the same regardless of whether or not the respiratory symptoms are COVID or some other bug.  (basically stay hydrated, stay home, tylenol, etc).  Almost every hospital has been seeing  more patients with coughing and fever than in a typical March, and many patients are being sent home labeled as "likely COVID19" without testing.  Hopefully this is becoming less true as testing capacity increases.  

 

Just don't make too much of the numbers.  This is a bad virus, and there are going to be a lot of deaths.  Far more than there should be, but here we are.  The more we all stay away from each other and the more we wash our hands, the better.  

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33 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

I don't even know that I trust the death numbers.  There are people dying with presumed covid but who didn't have testing who aren't counted in total numbers.  

 

I'm not sure we'll ever have a truly accurate assessment of what this virus is doing. 

 

 

I was looking at the obituaries section of the Post over the weekend, and about 4 or 5 listed "pneumonia" as the cause of death, and I was like "Hmmmm."

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33 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

 

I was looking at the obituaries section of the Post over the weekend, and about 4 or 5 listed "pneumonia" as the cause of death, and I was like "Hmmmm."

 

It's interesting how they make decisions. Determining whether people are dying with Covid, or because of it.

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