BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[China]

Apparently the rats in the French Quarter are having difficulty with social distancing:

 

Rats swarm New Orleans' streets as coronavirus precautions leave them empty

 

Click on the link for video

[No Excuses]

13 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

There are actual studies that show people wearing masks in public don't prevent the spread of viruses. 

 

This is a very dubious claim and is not supported by a decent amount of studies:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by No Excuses

[No Excuses]

It's also useful to look at data from the initial SARS outbreak, where it was found that mask wearing did protect against infection from coronavirus.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3692-face-masks-are-best-protection-against-sars/

 

Especially a disease that seems to be spread by a large number of asymptomatic people, it's kind of a ridiculous assertion that mask wearing won't offer a level of protection against spreading the disease. If the primary mode of transmission is respiratory droplets, surgical masks will reduce their spread and also offer a level of protection from inhaling droplets in the nearby environment. Even if this means that potentially infected people are infected with a lower viral load, which does make a difference in the severity of viral diseases.

Edited March 30, 2020 by No Excuses

[purbeast]

33 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

What does this mean exactly?  8pm curfews at night?  Or after 8pm tonight we can't even go to the grocery stores?

[PeterMP]

4 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

This is a very dubious claim and is not supported by a decent amount of studies:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4699551/

 

 

You need to make a distinction between people that are sick wearing masks that prevent others from getting sick and healthy people wearing masks.

 

The CDC has said sick people wearing masks are good.  Wearing a mask for self-protection doesn't seem to be effective.

 

The French study listed in your 3rd source is a case where they looked at that.  Barriers weren't found to be effective (though they also did terminate their study so maybe a new/better study would find something.)

 

(As somebody that teaches a chemistry lab and has students wear goggles, I can tell you that having something on the face can result in a lot more contact with the face (even while they are wearing gloves) than they normally would.  Yes, in theory it is possible that masks might help prevent you from getting a virus.  If it is done well and right.  Across the general public, it isn't hard to imagine that you'd end up with more people touching their face or the mask in areas that come in contact with your face.)

[Cooked Crack]

4 minutes ago, purbeast said:

What does this mean exactly?  8pm curfews at night?  Or after 8pm tonight we can't even go to the grocery stores? 

 

Quote

That means no one should leave their home for any reason other than essential work, to get food or other fundamental reason. He said no one should travel outside of the state or ride public transportation unless it is “absolutely necessary.” The order takes effect at 8 p.m.

Hogan affirmed Marylanders “are not locked in their homes," but urged residents to exercise “common sense.” He specifically said going out for a run or other basic health functions are OK, but congregating in a park with hundreds of others or shopping for home goods is not.

[No Excuses]

2 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

You need to make a distinction between people that are sick wearing masks that prevent others from getting sick and healthy people wearing masks.

 

The CDC has said sick people wearing masks are good.  Wearing a mask for self-protection doesn't seem to be effective.

 

The large number of asymptomatic and very mild cases who seem to be spreading this virus changes the equation on typical mask wearing guidelines. I've read that the CDC is planning on updating their guidelines in the next two weeks to urge all Americans to wear masks in public, which is probably due to the increasing volume of data showing transmission by asymptomatic people.

[tshile]

So basically hogan knows he should force people to stay home

but doesn’t have the political will to do it because of the backlash

 

*sigh*

 

 

2 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

The large number of asymptomatic and very mild cases who seem to be spreading this virus changes the equation on typical mask wearing guidelines. I've read that the CDC is planning on updating their guidelines in the next two weeks to urge all Americans to wear masks in public, which is probably due to the increasing volume of data showing transmission by asymptomatic people.

given the shortage of masks and their current direction to healthcare workers (reuse masks, only use when necessary) that seems weird 

[PeterMP]

45 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

It's also useful to look at data from the initial SARS outbreak, where it was found that mask wearing did protect against infection from coronavirus.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3692-face-masks-are-best-protection-against-sars/

 

Especially a disease that seems to be spread by a large number of asymptomatic people, it's kind of a ridiculous assertion that mask wearing won't offer a level of protection against spreading the disease. If the primary mode of transmission is respiratory droplets, surgical masks will reduce their spread and also offer a level of protection from inhaling droplets in the nearby environment. Even if this means that potentially infected people are infected with a lower viral load, which does make a difference in the severity of viral diseases.

 

1.  Yes, doctors that are interacting closely with sick people and can't practice distancing should wear masks and glove and goggles too.

 

But that's not the general public.

 

(and even there, it is only certain masks)

2.  For many viruses, including this  one, there isn't a strong relationship between viral load and severity of the disease.  People that are getting sicker don't necessarily have more of the virus.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

 

And I'm not at all sure that there's ever a relationship between the amount of initial viral exposure and the viral load at the height of the disease for any virus.

 

Your logic that being exposed initially to less virus means less of viral load at the height of the disease leads to a less serious illness  is not accurate.  Sort of like wearing masks, it sounds good, but there are other factors that are likely more important factors (e.g. does wearing a mask cause you to touch your face even more).

 

3.  Yes, the CDC might change their guidelines, and as I said initially, this virus might be different.

Edited March 30, 2020 by PeterMP

[PCS]

 

 

[Mr. Sinister]

That stay at home order is going to go swimmingly with PG and B-more county police

[SoCalSkins]

35 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

You need to make a distinction between people that are sick wearing masks that prevent others from getting sick and healthy people wearing masks.

 

The CDC has said sick people wearing masks are good.  Wearing a mask for self-protection doesn't seem to be effective.

 

The French study listed in your 3rd source is a case where they looked at that.  Barriers weren't found to be effective (though they also did terminate their study so maybe a new/better study would find something.)

 

(As somebody that teaches a chemistry lab and has students wear goggles, I can tell you that having something on the face can result in a lot more contact with the face (even while they are wearing gloves) than they normally would.  Yes, in theory it is possible that masks might help prevent you from getting a virus.  If it is done well and right.  Across the general public, it isn't hard to imagine that you'd end up with more people touching their face or the mask in areas that come in contact with your face.)

 

This thing stays in the air for up to 3 hours and closer to 30 minutes in real world situations. Without a mask you are going to breathe it in if you are in the same confined indoor space as an infected person. The link to the Washington state choir I posted earlier is a great example of that fact. 

[No Excuses]

31 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

2.  For many viruses, including this  one, there isn't a strong relationship between viral load and severity of the disease.  People that are getting sicker don't necessarily have more of the virus.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

 

And I'm not at all sure that there's ever a relationship between the amount of initial viral exposure and the viral load at the height of the disease for any virus.

This article isn't saying what you think it is. For COVID-19, the question of initial viral exposure to disease severity is still open-ended:

 

Quote

However, a study of patients hospitalised with covid-19 in Nanchang, China, found a strong association between disease severity and the amount of virus present in the nose. “Those with more severe disease had a higher level of virus replication, although we have no evidence to relay the initial exposure dose to disease outcome,” says Leo Poon at Hong Kong University, who was involved in the study. “That rumour is still an open question to me.”

 

There's also this:

 

 

Quote

 

For influenza, a higher infectious dose has been associated with worse symptoms. It has been tested by exposing volunteers to escalating doses of influenza virus in a controlled setting and carefully monitoring them over several weeks. This hasn’t been done with covid-19, and is unlikely to happen, given its severity.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/#ixzz6IBt6CfoM

 

 

The last bolded part, I'm not following. It's well accepted among virologists that the viral dose you are initially exposed to makes a difference in the kind of immune response the body initiates for respiratory diseases. There are already well characterized differences in the viral load of different COVID-19 patients and we know of several super-spreader clusters throughout the world. We probably don't even know if people can be asymptomatic and still be super-spreaders, but that may have been the case with Patient 31 in South Korea who led to the largest cluster of disease in the country.

 

So does this mostly apply to doctors and nurses who might be exposed to much higher viral loads? Probably. But quite literally every little bit of intervention is necessary right now until we learn more about how this virus behaves.

 

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

 

Quote

 

Dr Michael Skinner, Reader in Virology, Imperial College London, said:

 

“We must be more concerned about situations where somebody receives a massive dose of the virus (we have no data on how large that might be but bodily fluids from those infected with other viruses can contain a million, and up to a hundred million viruses per ml), particularly through inhalation.

 

“Unfortunately, we don’t yet know enough about the distribution of the COVID-19 virus throughout the body of the infected patients in normal, and unusual situations.

“Under such circumstances the virus receives a massive jump start, leading to a massive innate immune response, which will struggle to control the virus to allow time for acquired immunity to kick-in while at the same time leading to considerable inflammation and a cytokine storm.

 

“For most of us, it’s hard to see how we could receive such a high dose; it’s going to be a rare event. In the COVID-19 clinic, the purpose of PPE is to prevent such large exposures leading to high dose infection. Situations we should be concerned about are potential high dose exposure of clinical staff conducting procedures on patients who are not known to be infected. I read about a Chinese description of an early stage COVID-19 infection of the lung, which only came about because lung cancer patients (not known to be infected) had lobectemies. There have been suggestions that such situations contributed to the deaths of medics in Wuhan, who were conducting normal procedures (including some that could generate aerosols of infected fluids) before the spread and risk had been appreciated.

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

This thing stays in the air for up to 3 hours and closer to 30 minutes in real world situations. Without a mask you are going to breathe it in if you are in the same confined indoor space as an infected person. The link to the Washington state choir I posted earlier is a great example of that fact. 

 

There is no data that says its airborne for that long in normal conditions. There is evidence of aerosol spread in rare circumstances like people singing or doctors intubating patients. Almost everything tells us that its transmitted through respiratory droplets which are larger in size than smaller aerosol particles, do not float in the air and crash onto surfaces due to gravity.

 

Plus, unless you're wearing N95 masks, surgical masks aren't going to stop you from breathing in tiny aerosolized particles.

Edited March 30, 2020 by No Excuses

[PeterMP]

3 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

This thing stays in the air for up to 3 hours and closer to 30 minutes in real world situations. Without a mask you are going to breathe it in if you are in the same confined indoor space as an infected person. The link to the Washington state choir I posted earlier is a great example of that fact. 

 

There is a difference between it being able to remain infectious for up to 30 minutes in aerosol form, and it literally staying in the air for 30 minutes where your going to be able to breathe it in.  The fact that the people didn't hug isn't good evidence that they practiced good distancing or didn't contact other common surfaces. (in fact your story talks about them being gathered around a piano singing).

[FrFan]

 

I'd like to have more details like stage/degree of infection. I believe he didn't conduct randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled screening ?

[Fresh8686]

 

I wonder if he'll be making the same stay at home order Hogan just made in MD?

[No Excuses]

3 minutes ago, FrFan said:

I'd like to have more details like stage/degree of infection. I believe he didn't conduct randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled screening ? 

 

This is almost 100% certainly BS. You don't conduct a "clinical trial" and share your results in the form of a podcast interview with demented Rudy Giuliani. You send the data to a jury of your peers to assess and validate.

[Springfield]

9 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

I wonder if he'll be making the same stay at home order Hogan just made in MD?

I’d be shocked.

 

Northam, for a doctor, has been surprisingly reactionary throughout this whole thing.  I expect nothing of the sort.

[TradeTheBeal!]

12 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

This is almost 100% certainly BS. You don't conduct a "clinical trial" and share your results in the form of a podcast interview with demented Rudy Giuliani. You send the data to a jury of your peers to assess and validate.

 

Zinc, bro.

[China]

57 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

I've read that the CDC is planning on updating their guidelines in the next two weeks to urge all Americans to wear masks in public, which is probably due to the increasing volume of data showing transmission by asymptomatic people.

 

47 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

 

 

3.  Yes, the CDC might change their guidelines, and as I said initially, this virus might be different.

 

 

It's a moot point.  As it stands we don't have enough masks for healthcare workers.  Even if the CDC changes their guidelines to recommend everyone wear them, it won't matter because there aren't enough to go around.

[Renegade7]

33 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

That stay at home order is going to go swimmingly with PG and B-more county police

 

If anything, it sounds confusing AF.

 

I was nodding my head until he said it's okay to go for a jog.

 

 

[TheGoodBits]

2 minutes ago, China said:

 

 

 

It's a moot point.  As it stands we don't have enough masks for healthcare workers.  Even if the CDC changes their guidelines to recommend everyone wear them, it won't matter because there aren't enough to go around.

We don’t have enough *n95 masks* for healthcare workers. You don’t need an N95 mask for random people. Just anything worn over your face and nose will significantly reduce the spread of germs. It could be a thin piece of cloth held in place with duct tape and it will still help drastically. You aren’t trying to not contract the disease, you’re trying to reduce how much of the potential disease you could be spreading. 

[Springfield]

12 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Zinc, bro.

Just snorted some.  Thanks for the reminder, g

[TradeTheBeal!]

1 minute ago, Springfield said:

Just snorted some.  Thanks for the reminder, g

 

Chop it real fine and chase with Don Julio Reposado.

 

Youll be back on your feet in no time.

[The Sisko]

10 hours ago, Destino said:

Anyone that believes China’s numbers on the C19 outbreak is extremely naive. I’m not sure where the impulse to trust authoritarian regimes comes from, but it seems like a persistent problem.  It’s like people want it to be true so they just pretend it is.
 

You can’t trust the powerful, in general, but you’re a damn fool if you trust them when they’re entirely unaccountable to anyone and totally free to make up any story they like.  

You really need to let us know when you're going to switch subjects. For a second, I almost thought you were still talking about the Chinese in that last sentence instead of Tя☭mp.