2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Bonez3]

I seriously can see a Mia-Det-Was 3 way swap where we still retain Young. The NY Cheating Mara's will be left out in the cold. How great would that be

[PartyPosse]

2 minutes ago, Bonez3 said:

I seriously can see a Mia-Det-Was 3 way swap where we still retain Young. The NY Cheating Mara's will be left out in the cold. How great would that be

Miami is drafting Herbert. Galley was hired specifically for him. If Detroit was trading with anyone it's the Chargers. 

[Bonez3]

This Tua news is only gonna grow as we get closer to draft and he's fully cleared by medical staff

[HTTRDynasty]

35 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

That's because #2 is franchise quarterback country, not because that player is twice as valuable as the one picked at ten or twice as likely to pan out.  And that chart is outdated.  It came from a pre-spread NFL where there were like five great passing quarterbacks and teams would actually make baffling trades for franchise runningbacks.  Today the trade value of these picks entirely depends on the demand that the available QB prospects generate, and that is wildly variable.  And quite frankly, there's only been a buyer's market for blue chip QB prospects for the past five years.  You have to get lucky and have the right mixture of desperation, assets, and big name prospect to get a real haul.  If we can use Tua to pull off an RGIII type bounty just to drop down three or four spots, that is a swindle.  Of all fanbases we should know this.

The trade value chart may be outdated in your opinion, but is still extremely relevant.  It’s used by the most robust and reliable NFL statistics website and, more importantly, used by GM’s league-wide:

 

 

41 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

This is the kind of overhyping that is, at best, unproductive.  More likely to lead to a bad loss of perspective.  And it's unfair to Chase Young.  It's like when Gary Danielson is breathlessly gushing about Joe Burrow being Tom Brady with wheels as he's shredding Georgia.  It sets Young up to disappoint because it's inappropriate to seriously talk about any college prospect in that way and compare them to the greatest ones to ever play the sport, and then bake those premature expectations into their evaluations.

What I said is nothing like what Danielson did. I am not calling Young the next LT.  I do not have the expectation that he’ll reach the HOF. I am saying he has HOF potential. That does not mean he will reach it. Andrew Luck did not reach his potential, that does not mean he didn’t have the potential in the first place. 
 

Overall, we just seem to have very different opinions on what future draft picks in the mid-to-late 1st round and early 2nd round are worth, especially with the best prospect in the draft staring you in the face.

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've arguably been one of the key cheerleaders on Chase Young, did it (among others) before he became a universal movement so to speak on the board.

 

However, if you tell me for example I can get

A. Simmons or Okuda at 5

B. Ruggs or Higgins at the next Dolphins pick

C. Maybe McKinney or Diggs with the Dolphins 2nd round pick

And a high pick in 2021 it would be tempting.  I'd certainly at the least encourage offers.  

 

 

If we go down to five instead of six, I think we can do even better than that.  I think we can use Herbert to trade down too.  He's the last first round QB--Jordan Love is nothing.  Miami and Cincy take their QBs, leaving San Diego, New England, Carolina, Indianapolis, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all looking at Herbert.  We could benefit from a second bidding war for #5.  And it would also undermine New York's ability to use Herbert to trade back from 4. 

 

- Oakland has #12 and #19 this year.

- Indy has #13 and #34 and #44

- Carolina has #7 and #38.

- San Diego has #6 and #37

- Tampa Bay has #14 and #45

 

We'd lose Okudah and maybe Simmons, but imagine getting 12 and 19 and a future first or second to drop down from five.  Or 13, 34, 44, and a future first or second to drop down.  I'd also say yes to a trade of 5 to 6 or 7 that includes their second rounder.  And I think you might be able to squeeze a future first or second out of them as well as long as Indy and/or Oakland are bidding.  Take the Oakland or Indy trade and, going off TDN's draft board, now you've got this haul:

 

A - Wills at 13

B - Creed Humphrey at 18

C - CJ Henderson at 34

D - Tee Higgins at 39

E - Jaylon Johnson at 44

 

plus two more high picks in 2021.  That is insane.  Five freaking studs before pick 50.  Plus three first round picks in 2021?  Or at least two firsts and two seconds?  Plus whatever we can get back for Trent as well?  Next year is going to be a high end OT class too with Cade Mays, Sam Cosmi, Penei Sewell, and Liam Eichenberg all becoming eligible.  Also going to be a nasty first round WR group.  Assuming we and the Dolphins aren't that good next year, we'd control the draft again, and we could come away with another haul of freaks or even use some of that ammo to trade for 2022 high picks without sacrificing the pipeline in the short term. 

 

If we can exploit Tua and Herbert to cause bidding wars, It's a franchise altering opportunity to add draft value.  The value of all of those picks absolutely dwarfs the value of picking Chase Young at 2.  You'd be building an entire team.  But it entirely hinges on Tua getting healthy and showing enough to command the #2 pick.

[Going Commando]

28 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Miami is drafting Herbert. Galley was hired specifically for him. If Detroit was trading with anyone it's the Chargers.  

 

Miami has an honest shot at Tua and if they sit tight and draft Herbert instead, I think they'd be fools.  Tua is a lot better than him.  Herbert will remind people of Josh Allen, but he's not special like Tua is.  Tua is in that top tier of guys like DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.

[HTTRDynasty]

Even better: Why not keep trading back and keep getting more and more and more picks until you only end up with hundreds of 7th round picks over the next decade?  🤔
 

Lol. I’m messing with you @stevemcqueen1.  You’re a great poster, we just disagree on when trading back stops making sense. 

[Going Commando]

44 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

It is impossible to be consistently that bad every single year to the point that you could pass on that type of prospect, because “ there’s another next year.” You would have to be the worst or 2nd worst again the next year for that to be accurate. No one does that.  

 

I don't need an edge rusher prospect that expensive to win though.  Look at that list and the only two guys whose teams made the playoffs are Clowney and Nick Bosa.  It's a testament to how drafting Chase Young isn't going to solve all of (or even many of) our problems.  But adding six or seven extra good players?  Yeah that would go a long way.  Not to mention when you get that much extra draft wealth in a short span you can use it to add even more wealth by trading for future picks and give yourself the ammunition to trade up for studs when your roster is loaded.

[Skinsinparadise]

I just watched some Cole Kmet.  I like him better than Bryant.  He looks the part more.  I prefer multi dimensional TEs.  Kmet to me isn't the passing threat that Bryant is but is a bigger target.  This dude would be more up @Koolblue13's alley and mine, too.   He's not a killer blocker like Hockenson but he's IMO good albeit not great.  And he's good both as a run blocker and pass blocker.  He's good in that he's fairly consistent at it.  But he isn't great IMO from the perspective that he isn't a fluid blocker, he misses sometimes, and doesn't always keep hold of his block. 

 

What I like about him in the context of coming here is that they move him around.  They play him H back quite a bit.  You can have this dude probably play full back on occasion because he's used to playing set back from the line of scrimmage.   They use him a lot to supplement the run game.   I think that would be useful here for obvious reasons.

 

As a pass catcher he's decent.  He can look a little sloppy technique wise-- he's a bit of a body catcher.  But he's still decent as a catching threat.  He gets open.  They line him  up outside, inside, put him in motion.  Mostly shallow-intermediate routes.  Crossers, digs, quick outs.    Good red zone guy.  I don't think he does anything great but he's a well rounded good player IMO.

 

I attach a play here, he's number 84 where you can see him block with attitude with the run game. 

 

[Birdlives]

I’m no scout, but I would remind people of this point. The Rams got arguably the best bounty of picks possible in the RGIII trade, moved around the draft and got some real talent. They then had to move up to get their franchise QB in spite of that deal. They still haven’t even won a Super Bowl much less become a dominant force. Sometimes the KISS principle is the best principle. If Young is as good as people think, and we have a chance to field a front with Young, Sweat, and Kerrigan as rushers, with Ioanidis, Allen, Payne, and Settle in the middle, I think we should take that chance. 

[Anselmheifer]

53 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

You would have to be the second worst team every year to get a guy of the quality of a some of the guys you just named. 
 

Joey Bosa: 3rd overall

Nick Bosa: 2nd overall 

Von Miller: 2nd overall
Jadeveon Clowney: 1st overall

Julius Peppers: 2nd overall

Kahlil Mack: 5th overall

Miles Garett: 1st overall

 

It is impossible to be consistently that bad every single year to the point that you could pass on that type of prospect, because “ there’s another next year.” You would have to be the worst or 2nd worst again the next year for that to be accurate. No one does that. 

 

 

 

Also, the Bosa's and Clowney and Mack weren't the same caliber prospect as Chase. Per PFF chase also graded higher that Von Miller and Miles Garett, although I'm not sure how highly I value those grading systems. Looking back at stats etc, I'd say Garett also wasn't the same level prospect. That makes Chase a Von Miller/Julius Peppers level prospect. Also, Chase Young is 20. So much upside. 

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

B - Creed Humphrey at 18

C - CJ Henderson at 34

D - Tee Higgins at 39

E - Jaylon Johnson at 44

 

 

Do you think Higgins drops that far?   Trading down and lets say we skip the first tier of Wrs:  Lamb and Jeudy.   I'd love to get the next tier:  Ruggs or Higgins but i am presuming those two are going somewhere around 15-20.  Seeing Ruggs fly in person makes me convinced he will live up to his hype in the combine.

[Andre The Giant]

How sold are we all on Haskins?  He looked good late in the year, but there were a lot of reports of early immaturity.  I was concerned when he and Jay didn’t get along.  Jay’s not tough to get along with. 
 

Do you consider actually taking Tua?  Especially if Alex is healthy and Tua can sit (probably a long shot). You could then trade Haskins for picks. 
 

Concerned about Tua’s health, but his character and intangibles are off the charts.  Most of the great coaches say that’s the most important part of the position. 
 

Not saying this is the right move.  Just throwing it out there.

[Cooleyfan1993]

12 minutes ago, Birdlives said:

I’m no scout, but I would remind people of this point. The Rams got arguably the best bounty of picks possible in the RGIII trade, moved around the draft and got some real talent. They then had to move up to get their franchise QB in spite of that deal. They still haven’t even won a Super Bowl much less become a dominant force. 

Uh....what? They made it TO the super bowl on the NFC side last year, were 13-3, and 11-5 the year before that. How much more of a dominant force do they have to be? I’d say getting to the super bowl in year 2 of a new coach is pretty dominant 🤷🏻‍♂️

[slinky]

what if Cinci takes Burrows... then Detroit wants to trade up... not to take Young but to take Tua since they would be looking to move on and get out of Stafford's contract (I think they can get out as soon as 2021, allowing tua to sit a year behind Stafford.) they want to trade up to prevent Miami or anytime else from trading up. we then get #3 (Young) and Detroit's 2nd rounder. 

 

but alas,  I am just a draft idiot posting online. 

[MisterPinstripe]

6 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Uh....what? They made it TO the super bowl on the NFC side last year, were 13-3, and 11-5 the year before that. How much more of a dominant force do they have to be? I’d say getting to the super bowl in year 2 of a new coach is pretty dominant 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not with the bevy of players they got from our draft picks. Don't think they had a single player on the team from that trade, at least not starting. That definitely wasn't impacted by the trade with us. 

[HTTRDynasty]

20 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Not with the bevy of players they got from our draft picks. Don't think they had a single player on the team from that trade, at least not starting. That definitely wasn't impacted by the trade with us. 

 

And as I've said earlier in this thread, if they had just stayed put and drafted the elite talent, they likely have Fletcher Cox, Luke Kuechly or Stephon Gilmore playing in that game instead of the ghost haul they received from us.  Could have been the difference needed to win the Super Bowl.

[OtisDriftwood25]

Everyone should watch the video of Trent Dilfer about Tua. The injury concerns scare me but he has all-time talent. Obviously wait until the combine medical but a quarterback is the difference making position. I would go to bed sleeping great that I took a top 5 potential quarterback. Oh and he’s a great person so you know Rivera will back him.

[SoCalSkins]

50 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

How sold are we all on Haskins?  He looked good late in the year, but there were a lot of reports of early immaturity.  I was concerned when he and Jay didn’t get along.  Jay’s not tough to get along with. 
 

Do you consider actually taking Tua?  Especially if Alex is healthy and Tua can sit (probably a long shot). You could then trade Haskins for picks. 
 

Concerned about Tua’s health, but his character and intangibles are off the charts.  Most of the great coaches say that’s the most important part of the position. 
 

Not saying this is the right move.  Just throwing it out there.

I’m not sold on Haskins but I wouldn’t hesitate for a second on drafting Chase Young. 
 

I haven’t wanted to draft a defensive player this much since Sean Taylor. People wanted Winslow some wanted a WR. This dude is near the level of player as Sean in 2004.  Dude will be a game wrecker. Even if our offense sucks, we can cheer for competent D for few years. I’m good with that.

 

 

[Going Commando]

36 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Also, the Bosa's and Clowney and Mack weren't the same caliber prospect as Chase. Per PFF chase also graded higher that Von Miller and Miles Garett, although I'm not sure how highly I value those grading systems. Looking back at stats etc, I'd say Garett also wasn't the same level prospect. That makes Chase a Von Miller/Julius Peppers level prospect. Also, Chase Young is 20. So much upside.  

 

You're splitting hairs when you get to that tier of player.  They're all DPOY type guys, and the best realistic hope for a kid like Chase Young is that he ends up being as good as a player like Mack, not that he is X percentage better because he was graded X points higher as a prospect. 

 

Moreover, the Watts and Aaron Donald and Chandler Jones and Danielle Hunter are all DPOY caliber players too, and they weren't top ten picks.  The NFL draft is different from the draft in other sports like the NBA.  The All Pro tier players routinely come outside the top ten, and very often outside the first round.  On this year's All Pro teams for example, the only top ten picks were Christian McCaffery, Julio Jones, Ronnie Stanley, Quentin Nelson, Jamal Adams, Stephon Gilmore, DeForest Buckner, and Luke Kuechly.  That's just eight out of the 42 non-special teams selections.  Push the cutoff to first round and you still get 21 players on the offensive and defensive All Pro teams, or exactly half the selections.  And some of those first rounders were late ones that came outside of the top 25 like TJ Watt and Lamar Jackson and DeAndre Hopkins and TreDavious White and Ryan Ramczyk and Cameron Heyward.

 

There is massive value to be found in picks 20-50 in every single class.  There will be guys who come from that range in this year's class (or after) who will effectively end up being as good as Chase Young or perhaps even better.  it always happens.  The trick is to find them and obtain the opportunity to draft them.

[skinzplay]

The Bengals had better shore up that coaching staff (on both sides of the ball), or it won't matter who they draft; it'll be a lot of incredible talent just languishing in Cincy.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Do you think Higgins drops that far?   Trading down and lets say we skip the first tier of Wrs:  Lamb and Jeudy.   I'd love to get the next tier:  Ruggs or Higgins but i am presuming those two are going somewhere around 15-20.  Seeing Ruggs fly in person makes me convinced he will live up to his hype in the combine. 

 

No, but I also didn't think Metcalf and Butler would fall as far as they did last year.  Higgins looks like a no-brainer top 25 talent, but WR has proven tricky to project the past few years.  I do think there might be some bad groupthink about a few guys on TDN's big board.  Paulson Adebo and Terrell Lewis and Neville Gallimore are all conspicuously overrated IMO.  Higgins and Gross-Matos and Josh Jones are conspicuously underrated.  And I like Nick Adams and think he is much more than the sum of his parts, but there is just no way a 6' center-only prospect is getting drafted in the top 50.  He's more likely to go in like the fifth round than he is to go in the second.

 

I love Ruggs too.  I  think you might even be pessimistic about his 40.  I think he can hit the 4.2s.  He is a John Ross-like athlete at the position, although I don't think he's quite as gifted of a receiver as Ross was.  Regardless, he could be the kind of weapon that completely opens up the passing game.  He can score on a slant or shallow cross from any part of the field.

[PartyPosse]

There's always gonna be one or two receivers that kill the combine and fly into the first round or two. Someone like Stephen Guidry

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Miami has an honest shot at Tua and if they sit tight and draft Herbert instead, I think they'd be fools.  Tua is a lot better than him.  Herbert will remind people of Josh Allen, but he's not special like Tua is.  Tua is in that top tier of guys like DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.

 

Tua was a lot better than him. Even if Tua passes his medical, there's no way to know if he'll ever be the same player. it's one thing to go to a Dr's office and get exams and be cleared to do activities in shorts; it's something completely different to actually go out and play football (in a jump up to the NFL level at that). I'm not saying he won't be the same player he was but he already had an injury history prior to this devastating one, and taking him super high, let alone giving up a haul to move up high for him, is super super risky. Someone will take a chance on him but I think some of you are downplaying not only how bad his injury was, but how much of an injury history he had before that. 

[Skin'emAlive]

Metcalf fell because he was injured mid season, and the only information people had on him was based off the combine and bowl game. To be fair though: 6/8 wrs drafted before Metcalf made it to the playoffs, and almost all of them are number 1 wrs for their respective teams. 

The Rams got a bounty of players for Griff, but Griff took this team to a divisional title and playoffs in his rookie year before Ngata. I don’t think the Rams did anything with that haul and eventually relocated out of St. Louis. That’s as big of a fail as it gets.

 

 Other DPOY guys are diamonds in the rough, and or benefactors if fortunate situations.