2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[HTTRDynasty]

A ton of extra picks sounds good in theory, but it's very risky to pass up an elite prospect for extra picks.

 

The Rams did nothing with the picks they got in the RGIII trade. 

The Browns did nothing with the picks they got in the Wentz trade.

The Browns did nothing with the picks they got in the Julio Jones trade.

 

I agree with Scott here.

 

[Going Commando]

As Scott McCloughan if he'd take six extra top 50 picks in two years in exchange for dropping 11 spots in the first round.

There isn't a single player in the NFL that has more individual value than six top 50 draft guys.  Not even Mahomes.  And we already have a quarterback.  Combine that with the fact that elite players routinely come from outside of the top ten of their draft classes, that kind of haul dwarfs the value of even a great prospect like Chase Young.

[HTTRDynasty]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

As Scott McCloughan if he'd take six extra top 50 picks in two years in exchange for dropping 11 spots in the first round.

 

There's about a 50% hit rate on first round picks.  Even less on second round picks.  So there's a good chance only 2-3 of those 6 picks will "hit".  Not sure about Scott, but I'd take the blue-chip prospect in Chase Young over 2-3 "good starters" or "red players".

 

And none of those picks would be in the top 10, which brings the expected hit rate down even lower.

[757SeanTaylor21]

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

As Scott McCloughan if he'd take six extra top 50 picks in two years in exchange for dropping 11 spots in the first round.

There isn't a single player in the NFL that has more individual value than six top 50 draft guys.  Not even Mahomes.  And we already have a quarterback.  Combine that with the fact that elite players routinely come from outside of the top ten of their draft classes, that kind of haul dwarfs the value of even a great prospect like Chase Young.

I think you're crazy. Patrick mahomes is dag near untradeable.how many elite players do teams really hit on and what's the success rate? 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

There's about a 50% hit rate on first round picks.  Even less on second round picks.  So there's a good chance only 2-3 of those 6 picks will "hit".  Not sure about Scott, but I'd take the blue-chip prospect in Chase Young over 2-3 "good starters" or "red players". 

 

If that's true, then that 50% hit rate applies to the pick spent on Chase Young too.  And he's not the only blue chip prospect in this class.  I think we could still get one in the early teens, or at the very least get a really good player like Epenesa or Fulton or Wirfs.

[Burgundy Yoda]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Aw man I was hoping to nab him in the 3rd. Not sure how he's going to look with Tua gone, but this should definitely increase his draft stock. 

[NoVaSkins21]

For the longest time I've always advocated for need vs BPA.  However, Young is too good to pass up even though the Skins have a lot of needs going into the draft.  It would be insane given that they now have a defensive minded head coach and a bonafide DC.  Add to that, ES would probably blow up if Young is not the pick

[PartyPosse]

I’m already on board for drafting Devonte Smith with our pick in 2021

[Skin'emAlive]

@stevemcqueen1 on the same page you claim DK Metcalf falling to the bottom of the 2nd was asinine, and that everyone outsmarted themselves, and then get giddy about moving out of the #2 spot to #13 and a bevy of picks... 

 

If Young is there, you draft him. It’s pretty simple. 

[WordM]

I look at it this way - If the Redskins had the 5th pick in this year's draft and still had their 2nd, and let's say Miami had the 2nd, and Miami called saying this year's first (5) and this year's second for #2 and Chase Young, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Here we are, already with the #2. Draft Chase Young. We'll survive just fine without a second-rounder. Young/Sweat as DE's has the potential to give OC's the sweats for years to come.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've arguably been one of the key cheerleaders on Chase Young, did it (among others) before he became a universal movement so to speak on the board.

 

However, if you tell me for example I can get

A. Simmons or Okuda at 5

B. Ruggs or Higgins at the next Dolphins pick

C. Maybe McKinney or Diggs with the Dolphins 2nd round pick

And a high pick in 2021 it would be tempting.  I'd certainly at the least encourage offers. 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If that's true, then that 50% hit rate applies to the pick spent on Chase Young too. 

 

Not really though.  The hit rate increases exponentially the higher you pick in the 1st round, which is why the 2nd overall pick is worth twice as much as the 10th overall pick on Pro-Football Reference's (Jimmy Johnson's) trade value chart.

 

24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

And he's not the only blue chip prospect in this class.  I think we could still get one in the early teens, or at the very least get a really good player like Epenesa or Fulton or Wirfs.

 

He's not just blue chip.  He is HOF-potential.

[Est.1974]

Been touting the Chargers for a while as potential movers in the draft.

 

Include James in the trade and we can start talking. Always been a fan of a Hayward too.

[Skinsinparadise]

South Florida paper just now

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-dolphins-tua-tagovailoa-nfl-draft-20200106-4e23zwmr6bcnbf4ltnnqtjyzuq-story.html

 

Along with examining Tagovailoa’s health and whether to draft him, the Dolphins must also consider the expected competition from other NFL teams considering him. The Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, the Carolina Panthers at No. 7 and the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 9 could headline that group among Top 10 picks alone.

The Dolphins must work during the Senior Bowl, combine, and league meetings in March to identify teams that could jump ahead of them in the draft order. They could also gauge whether teams are shying away from Tagovailoa and consider trading down from No. 5 to land him with a later pick.

With the emergence of veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins could afford for Tagovailoa to sit out the season.

Before Tagovailoa announced his decision, Dolphins owner Steve Ross, vice chairman, president and CEO Tom Garfinkel and general manager Chris Grier were in attendance for the Alabama-Michigan bowl game in Orlando where they stood several feet away from Tagovailoa before kickoff.

[Est.1974]

Quite a few of those teams can sit Tua for a year. Interesting scenarios out there now. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The value of the information gleaned from combine and proday athletic testing drills is negligible.  The combine has been made into such a freaking event for NFL die hard fans that it's now a performance.  A performances whose significance is vastly overstated, and I think that hype bleeds into the thinking of the football people who work in the league and work on the networks.  Creates bad groupthink.  If I wanted to improve the level of evaluation for the league across the board, I would just have the players get measured and the defensive backs run the 40 and then everyone moves on to position drills, medical evals, and interviews.  That wouldn't be capitalizing on a potential spectacle though.  So the event will continue to be a melodramatic distraction, and the best drafting teams will be the ones who are, in part, the best at filtering out the noise of the draft season red herrings like the combine.

 

I find it incredibly useful...for me.  But you're right, the NFL at large seems to use the combine numbers in a way that's baffling.  It helps me look at or avoid scouting certain players.  Also helps re-enforce what I see on tape, or make me revisit a player if I thought negatively or overly positively on them.  But for these professional franchises where they are paid to do it?  How do they not marry tape to combine?  It feels like some of them just throw tape out the window once combine numbers come in.

 

I get the thinking of, "that college has no good WR development, so we can take this raw WR and teach him how to run routes, etc".  But the NFL teams seem to take this to an extreme sometimes.  They overdraft guys who excel at the combine, but the tape doesn't show that kind of play speed.  There are loads of guys who run fast 40's, then the tape is put on and you don't see that speed.

 

Like, Leonard Hankerson and Donte Moncrief both ran a flat 4.40, just a hair away from running in the 4.3's.  Yet you almost never saw that speed on tape.  They both ran routes like they were in the mid-4.5's.  After the combine Moncrief was considered a fringe first rounder.  He's been on 4 teams in 6 years and might be out of the NFL now.  Hankerson is out of the NFL after being on 4 teams in 5 years.

[Skinsinparadise]

I also agree with Bullock's point below.  Chase is tough to pass up on.  It would have to be a haul.  

 

 

 

[Skin'emAlive]

 

22 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Been touting the Chargers for a while as potential movers in the draft.

 

Include James in the trade and we can start talking. Always been a fan of a Hayward too.

While I really do like the idea of James in a trade, I think that true dominance by a safety is all but dead now due to the rule changes to the modern game. There’s only so much you can do. An elite edge rusher can still change the game, and doesn’t have to beat the refs to do it. On top of that, an elite edge makes the entire team better. It’s just too much risk to move out of the prospect of an elite edge. You will never get the opportunity to draft a guy like that in later rounds. 

[skins2victory]

Don't trade out of #2 unless its an absolutely insane offer. Chase is the pick there.

 

- To get additional picks its time to trade some of our aging long standing stars while they still have value. Kerrigan has been my favorite player for years, but it's time to move on from him and cry baby burnt bridges Williams too.

 

We may still be able to get a 1st for Williams.

My best guess is Kerrigan is probably worth a 3rd.

 

- If we did get a first for Trent, I would consider trading down from that spot like we did with the Colts last year adding a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year.

[tmandoug1]

Absolutely the best dilemma to be in.....love it. Can't lose either way IMHO.

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

While I really do like the idea of James in a trade, I think that true dominance by a safety is all but dead now due to the rule changes to the modern game. There’s only so much you can do. An elite edge rusher can still change the game, and doesn’t have to beat the refs to do it. On top of that, an elite edge makes the entire team better. It’s just too much risk to move out of the prospect of an elite edge. You will never get the opportunity to draft a guy like that in later rounds. 

 

Dont disagree in principle , just throwing things out there. We might get an outrageous offer though.

 

As for James, pretty sure our new DB coach was the person largely credited with James' early success and transition to the league. Just saying that on record in case it happens..

 

Miami, I'd want all 3 first rounders minimum.

Chargers, I'd want 6, 37 and James minimum.

Carolina, not sure I'd want to go back to 7 although if Ron wants Cam then you never know, 7, a second, a third and Cam..

[redskinss]

I'm still bitter that we lost to the giants.

 

 

 

That's sounds just as ridiculous now that I've typed it, as it did when I was thinking it or it did when people wanted us to actually pull it off.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Llevron]

11 minutes ago, skins2victory said:

- If we did get a first for Trent, I would consider trading down from that spot like we did with the Colts last year adding a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year.

 

I feel like if we get a first for Trent we need to use it to move up and replace him (assuming there is a guy there worth that). Im just worried about what happens id Pen doesnt hold up as well as he did this season.