2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Est.1974]

16 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Yeah, we'd have to wait until whatever the magic date is to classify Smith as the special June 1 release to have our 2020 cap stay the same for cutting him.  That then shifts 10.8 million into the 2021 cap.  Otherwise, if we don't designate him a June 1 cut, then that 10.8 million counts in 2020.  With cap rollover, and cap inflation, I think it makes sense to shift dead cap into another year.

 

It was reported somewhere many months ago that we had a 12m insurance pay off due back in Smith if he medically retired. That would give cap relief. 

 

There are also no June 1st cuts with it being the last year of the CBA, however that may change I suppose if something happens in the new agreement under discussion.

 

Should be a hell of a lot going on in the QB market this offseason.

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Also possible Detroit trades Stafford, though that may be tough to pull off...

 

Possible. Got to think Tua needs to sit out 2020 or a good chunk of it though.

 

I mean, he's made for a season on the sideline behind Fitzmagic.

[Anselmheifer]

 

 

Did anyone else already post this? He looks good but not elite. Has some hands, speed, length and size. I don't know anything about him as a blocker. Looks like he might go before our pick in the 3rd. 

[OVCChairman]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think Tua would be entering the draft no matter what the testing is at this point. He's hedging his bets that he'll still be a top 15 pick, which is a lot of money. If he ends up being a top 10 pick that $10+ million straight into the bank in signing bonus, whether he busts or not. If he goes back to school and either doesn't fully recover (in a football sense) from his injury and he just isn't the same guy, or if he gets injured again then he could see his stock plummet, especially with guys like Lawrence coming out in the same year. This way, even if he never gets back to being the same QB he was before, he still gets paid a bunch of guaranteed money. It's a smart play monetarily. 

 

As far as Detroit I see them as a long shot to go QB considering the money they have invested in Stafford and the dead cap he carries at the moment. That's especially true when you're talking about possibly replacing him with a rookie QB coming off of a really bad injury and who also has an injury history prior to that. 

 

I really don't see anyone trading up for Tua. Especially all the way to #2 which would probably cost big time draft capital. The teams that want him will probably sit tight and figure that he's more likely than not to fall to them. And if he isn't then they'll go BPA. 

 

 

He just held a press conference announcing that he's declaring for the draft. 

 

My whole theory was contingent upon the fact that he continues to have positive return on his rehab.  He's supposedly had positive reports to the point, and I BELIEVE i heard he's got 2 more evaluations prior to this upcoming draft.  This whole thing is contingent on those two.  If the reports continue to be positive, Detroit could find themselves wanting Tua knowing that Stafford is going to be in uniform for another year simply because of the cost to part ways NOW is too high.  It gives them the flexibility to rehab and redshirt Tua putting him presumably at 100% by the time Stafford is out, 2021.  

[mistertim]

22 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

He just held a press conference announcing that he's declaring for the draft. 

 

My whole theory was contingent upon the fact that he continues to have positive return on his rehab.  He's supposedly had positive reports to the point, and I BELIEVE i heard he's got 2 more evaluations prior to this upcoming draft.  This whole thing is contingent on those two.  If the reports continue to be positive, Detroit could find themselves wanting Tua knowing that Stafford is going to be in uniform for another year simply because of the cost to part ways NOW is too high.  It gives them the flexibility to rehab and redshirt Tua putting him presumably at 100% by the time Stafford is out, 2021.  

 

I know he held a presser declaring for the draft. I wasn't questioning it. I was saying that I think he'd declare whether his recovery was going really well or wasn't. He obviously believes (and IIRC said that he'd been told) that he'd still likely be picked in the top 10 or top 15. If he believes that to be the case then there's no reason for him to go back to school and no reason to make it contingent on his recovery going really well. Obviously if he had some huge setback it would be problematic for his draft but as long as that doesn't happen he has nothing to lose. Even if he's never the same player he was before and it doesn't work out for him in the NFL, he still gets some pretty big paydays with over 10 million bucks signing bonus if he's in the top 10. 

 

If he went back to school he'd run the risk of getting injured again (the guy does seem injury prone), as well as possibly never truly returning to form after his injury. That sort of stuff could drop his 2021 draft stock way down, and hence drop his payday way down. I'm not saying that all he cares about is the money as I don't know the dude. I'm just saying that it's a smart play from a career standpoint. Get the big payday, work hard and hope everything works out with rehab and getting back to his former self. And if it doesn't, then he got some nice money in the bank anyway. 2021 is also going to have guys like Lawrence and Fields in the mix so if he didn't have a great year they could bump him way down. 

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

A lot of us don't love Herbert.

 

I grade Herbert similarly to how I'd grade Haskins. He's better mechanically, but also more prone to the big mistake, and more mobile. He could work out, but last years draft class was far, far less impressive than this years' in my opinion.

 

If we needed a QB and were picking in the 15-25 range, though, I'd consider Herbert.

 

I think Herbert has a Josh Allen type in him. Not saying anything about his play because he has a completion percentage thats much higher than Allen's, But he has the physical tools and ability to be dominant in a lot of respects. Thats something that teams are going to fall in love with. I remember being in love with Allen for these same reasons, but then I think about stuff like what Cooley said on his podcast yesterday where it was basically some Bill Walsh notes saying that things that get coaches fired are things like arm strength in a QB. But then I looked at Allen Saturday and was like maybe I was right, but then the bonehead plays, and I'm like maybe not. 

[PartyPosse]

I still get the feeling Tua drops further than most people anticipate. He’s shown to have a bit of an injury problem. If he can’t go next year for any part of it, it’ll still take him a few extra weeks to transition to the NFL. If I were a team needing a QB I’d rather wait for Lawrence the following year. It wouldn’t shock me to see New England move up to grab him if he falls to the lower teens.

[KDawg]

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

 

I think Herbert has a Josh Allen type in him. Not saying anything about his play because he has a completion percentage thats much higher than Allen's, But he has the physical tools and ability to be dominant in a lot of respects. Thats something that teams are going to fall in love with. I remember being in love with Allen for these same reasons, but then I think about stuff like what Cooley said on his podcast yesterday where it was basically some Bill Walsh notes saying that things that get coaches fired are things like arm strength in a QB. But then I looked at Allen Saturday and was like maybe I was right, but then the bonehead plays, and I'm like maybe not. 

 

I'm going to catch heat for this, but I'm going to say it anyways:

 

RIGHT NOW, bolded for complete emphasis on the timing, I'd take Josh Allen over Dwayne Haskins.

 

*ducks from stevemcqueen's shoe*

 

Here's why: Josh Allen has one thing that I haven't seen from Haskins yet. It's not his arm strength. It's not mechanics. It's not even his legs. But living in the Buffalo market, I hear/read a lot about the Bills. And every player on that Bills roster seems to genuinely love him. The fans also love him. They get frustrated with him... I was at the bar with my buddies watching the Bills and that backward dive/fumble and the lateral, and the two sacks in a row on 3rd and long and 4th and 27 had them wanting to kick him square in the cajones. 

 

But they still love him. 

 

When you aren't a fantastic quarterback, if your team has your back, you can win.

 

I think Haskins has more upside as a quarterback if he has his head on correctly. But you can't teach charisma.

[Mr. Sinister]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

I still get the feeling Tua drops further than most people anticipate. He’s shown to have a bit of an injury problem. If he can’t go next year for any part of it, it’ll still take him a few extra weeks to transition to the NFL. If I were a team needing a QB I’d rather wait for Lawrence the following year. It wouldn’t shock me to see New England move up to grab him if he falls to the lower teens.

 

I think someone (probably them) would have to pull off some high quality sabotage for that to happen

[OVCChairman]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I know he held a presser declaring for the draft. I wasn't questioning it. I was saying that I think he'd declare whether his recovery was going really well or wasn't. He obviously believes (and IIRC said that he'd been told) that he'd still likely be picked in the top 10 or top 15. If he believes that to be the case then there's no reason for him to go back to school and no reason to make it contingent on his recovery going really well. Obviously if he had some huge setback it would be problematic for his draft but as long as that doesn't happen he has nothing to lose. Even if he's never the same player he was before and it doesn't work out for him in the NFL, he still gets some pretty big paydays with over 10 million bucks signing bonus if he's in the top 10. 

 

If he went back to school he'd run the risk of getting injured again (the guy does seem injury prone), as well as possibly never truly returning to form after his injury. That sort of stuff could drop his 2021 draft stock way down, and hence drop his payday way down. I'm not saying that all he cares about is the money as I don't know the dude. I'm just saying that it's a smart play from a career standpoint. Get the big payday, work hard and hope everything works out with rehab and getting back to his former self. And if it doesn't, then he got some nice money in the bank anyway. 2021 is also going to have guys like Lawrence and Fields in the mix so if he didn't have a great year they could bump him way down. 

 

 

Gotcha, sorry, i misread it and thought you were implying he hadn't declared.  My bad. 

 

Stafford's dead cap number is bad this coming season, but it drops A TON after this season so if you want to draft and groom, this is the draft to do it.  They're not competing in that division with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago... or at least not while Stafford is affordable (next year).  I cant see them wanting to pay Stafford $31 mil in 2021 either... so you can either draft a guy this year and groom, or you can HOPE you get a day 1 starter in next years draft.  

[PartyPosse]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I think someone (probably them) would have to pull off some high quality sabotage for that to happen

They’ll probably have 12 draft picks including comps and they’re only picking 23rd. It’s doable moving up to say 13 or 14. Chiefs only gave up a first next year and an other third to move from 27 to 10.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

It was reported somewhere many months ago that we had a 12m insurance pay off due back in Smith if he medically retired. That would give cap relief. 

I remember reading about that, but no idea when that kicks in.

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

There are also no June 1st cuts with it being the last year of the CBA, however that may change I suppose if something happens in the new agreement under discussion.

Oh?  Had not realized that.  So it only makes sense to trade Smith then, cutting him hurts the team.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

 

 

21 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I still get the feeling Tua drops further than most people anticipate. He’s shown to have a bit of an injury problem. If he can’t go next year for any part of it, it’ll still take him a few extra weeks to transition to the NFL. If I were a team needing a QB I’d rather wait for Lawrence the following year. It wouldn’t shock me to see New England move up to grab him if he falls to the lower teens.

 

Tua was a bit of an injury concern before this latest injury. The GM who would willingly trade up to #2 to get him would be basically placing his and his team's future on one big gamble. I just can't see it happening.

 

Similarly, I think this is going to become one of those things were teams start looking at each other around 12 or 13 and start saying "Are you gonna do it? Are you?"

 

This is also a very weird draft in that we have multiple teams with multiple picks. Unlike most people here, I don't think that means more trades. I think that means more games of chicken. Does Jacksonsville think he'll fall to them at 20? Do they see the Dolphins at 18 as the risk? Is Gruden - perpetually unhappy with his QB and moving to Vegas- a risk?

 

At this point, I think Tua means more as a "face of the franchise" than as a player.

 

The Chargers, Las Vegas and Jacksonville (in SEC country) all need something to get the fans to the games.

[mistertim]

8 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Gotcha, sorry, i misread it and thought you were implying he hadn't declared.  My bad. 

 

Stafford's dead cap number is bad this coming season, but it drops A TON after this season so if you want to draft and groom, this is the draft to do it.  They're not competing in that division with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago... or at least not while Stafford is affordable (next year).  I cant see them wanting to pay Stafford $31 mil in 2021 either... so you can either draft a guy this year and groom, or you can HOPE you get a day 1 starter in next years draft.  

 

Fair point about Stafford's dead cap going down after this season. My only worry would be drafting a guy so high with the plan of letting Stafford go prior to the 2021 season, when you have a huge injury question mark about the guy you're drafting. If they take Tua at 3, let him continue to rehab through 2020, let Stafford go before the 2021 season, and Tua ends up not being fully recovered and/or is not back to his former self then they have nothing to fall back on. They'd be right back in the same position but with no good QB on the roster. If that happens they either keep rolling with Tua in the hope that he eventually does get back to his former self or they lose out big time and then draft another QB with another top 3 pick. Just seems risky to me. They'd definitely be rolling the dice. 

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

 

 

Tua was a bit of an injury concern before this latest injury. The GM who would willingly trade up to #2 to get him would be basically placing his and his team's future on one big gamble. I just can't see it happening.

 

Similarly, I think this is going to become one of those things were teams start looking at each other around 12 or 13 and start saying "Are you gonna do it? Are you?"

 

This is also a very weird draft in that we have multiple teams with multiple picks. Unlike most people here, I don't think that means more trades. I think that means more games of chicken. Does Jacksonsville think he'll fall to them at 20? Do they see the Dolphins at 18 as the risk? Is Gruden - perpetually unhappy with his QB and moving to Vegas- a risk?

 

At this point, I think Tua means more as a "face of the franchise" than as a player.

 

The Chargers, Las Vegas and Jacksonville (in SEC country) all need something to get the fans to the games.

I can’t see him dropping further than 12 honestly. Too many QB needy teams and ones that can afford not to start him immediately (Chargers, Vegas).

[Pick6]

2 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

 

 

Tua was a bit of an injury concern before this latest injury. The GM who would willingly trade up to #2 to get him would be basically placing his and his team's future on one big gamble. I just can't see it happening.

 

Similarly, I think this is going to become one of those things were teams start looking at each other around 12 or 13 and start saying "Are you gonna do it? Are you?"

 

This is also a very weird draft in that we have multiple teams with multiple picks. Unlike most people here, I don't think that means more trades. I think that means more games of chicken. Does Jacksonsville think he'll fall to them at 20? Do they see the Dolphins at 18 as the risk? Is Gruden - perpetually unhappy with his QB and moving to Vegas- a risk?

 

At this point, I think Tua means more as a "face of the franchise" than as a player.

 

The Chargers, Las Vegas and Jacksonville (in SEC country) all need something to get the fans to the games.

 

I have also heard reports that this hip injury is of major long term concern and he will probably have arthritis by the time he is 30. So at best you probably get half the amount of seasons as a typical franchise QB. I don't see a team moving to #2 for that risk. 

[kingdaddy]

I really believe Jon Gruden does not want to go to Vegas with Carr as his QB.....maybe he'll go after Tom Brady? Wouldn't that be something? 

Or, maybe he falls in love with Tua or Herbert and offers the moon to us to get up to #2. I'm targeting Gruden as the guy who makes us an insane offer to move up and grab a QB.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Haskins has more upside as a quarterback if he has his head on correctly. But you can't teach charisma.

 

I get that, it makes sense.  Baker is a personality.  I remember Chris Cooley talking about when he worked at the combine that year, Baker kind of ran whatever room he was in.  All the other QB's deferred.  Is that personality constructive?  I have no idea.  I don't think Jones or Murray in last years class had much of a personality.  Locker room influence would have to come from somewhere else.  Is Ron Rivera that type of coach, where he's able to fill that void?

 

I remember reading one of the reasons why the Eagles wanted to trade McNabb, was because he wasn't liked by teammates, whereas the young guy, Kevin Kolb was.  I remember an article talking about Cousins, and how teammates didn't love him, but nobody disliked him.  He was odd, and different, but he wasn't putting on a front.  They knew who he was and where they stood with him.

 

My impression from this past season was that Haskins was morose and sulked a bit when he was ignored by Gruden.  Teammates didn't like that.  But teammates started to turn around on Haskins once he was a starter, realized what he was doing didn't work, and started to figure out how to prepare better.  Does that mean they like him or love him?  I have no idea.  I'm guessing it's too early say that.  I think the first indication we can get about it is during Training Camp.

 

I do think having Bruce Allen gone helps.  It's hard to be positive in the lockerroom when there's an overarching toxicity and confusion coming from the the organization itself.

7 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm targeting Gruden as the guy who makes us an insane offer to move up and grab a QB.

 

I would be surprised.  They traded Mack and Cooper.  They have shown a belief that the sum of the parts is worth more than 1 guy.

[wilco_holland]

Hmm Fromm declared. Qeustionable. Not sure if he couldn't improve. 

[Anselmheifer]

Thoughts about KJ Hamler? We could always use a playmaker and he may be available in the 4th. I wouldn't take him at the top of the 3rd, I don't think. 

 

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/01/penn-state-kj-hamler

 

 

Even with Devonta Smith staying in school, I think the top of the 3rd could yield us a really good WR. 

Also, where do you guys see Bryce Hall going?

 

 

[PartyPosse]

26 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

Hmm Fromm declared. Qeustionable. Not sure if he couldn't improve. 

He's another guy I can see NE grabbing as their future.

[HTTRDynasty]

Would put us in a very interesting position:

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I was a bit curious by what I could get in a hypothetical trade down, because I have struggled to decide whether or not I would be willing to trade off 2 and pass on Chase Young. The only scenario that I thought through that could lead to a trade-down would be a FA cycle that saw us addressing Edge by bringing in Ngakue from Jacksonville. He'd be our premier FA signing, along with a TE and bringing back Trent and Scherff.

 

So i traded #2 to Miami for #5, #18 and #39.

1.5: Jeffery Okudah, CB Ohio State

1.18: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson

2.7: Xavier McKinney, FS Alabama

3.2: Cole Kmet, TE Notre Dame

4.2: Anthony McFarland, RB Maryland

4.38: K.J. Hill, WR Ohio State

5.2: Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU

 

Can't see Simmons or McKinney falling to those spots so it may be a bit unrealistic. Maybe swap in Kenneth Murray at 18 and a diff. DB at #39 ... but boy ... add Ngakue and Hooper to that draft class ....

 

-------------------------------

http://jmusports.com/sports/football/roster/brandon-polk/15807

 

Brandon Polk. JMU homer here ... but the dude's been a spark for JMU this year. Just always making plays. He's gone for 73 - 1,173 and 11 TDs this year for the Dukes.

 

Check him out Saturday at 12 on ABC in the Natty against NDSU. He's local (Briar Woods/Ashburn) ... transferred to JMU last spring after spending 4 years at Penn State.

Legit talent. Don't see him on many draft boards or rankings, but a diamond in the rough to keep an eye out for as a late-round flier or UDFA.

[Anselmheifer]

4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Would put us in a very interesting position:

 

 

I pooped on Daniel Jones and Josh Allen, and I don't think either is ever going to be a top 8 QB, but they have both been better than I thought. That said, I think Justin Herbert is a better prospect than Allen and Jones. Maybe he wouldn't be a terrible choice that high. 

Not sure what to think of Fromm. I wouldn't mind taking a flier on him as a long term backup in the later rounds, but I think he'll go earlier than I like. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I'll say this ... the musical chairs that happens every single year at QB is super interesting to track.

 

Last year ... around draft season and then after draft season, the sense was that the 2020 QB class was elite ... 4-5 first rounders.

 

Tua was concensus #1 if he came out. When Herbert announced he was going back to Oregon, everyone was shocked because he was seen as the 2019 QB1 and would have gone ahead of Daniel Jones. Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason were guys people were throwing into 2020 mock drafts heading into the college season as Top 10 QBs.

 

Joe Burrow was apparently a mid-round pick.

 

Now Burrow is a generational talent who's going #1. Tua is hurt but could slide. Herbert would have been QB1 last year and people are poo-pooing him going into 2020 (Matt Miller tweet above notwithstanding). Jake Fromm and Jacob Eason are two guys I'm intrigued by. Why did they fall off so much? Both were in the Round 1 QB discussion.

 

I think when the dust settles this draft will still be super deep at QB ... Burrow will go #1 ... Tua and Herbert will end up both going Top 5 (through trade ups). Fromm and Eason will find their ways back into the Round 1 discussion and end up going mid-1st. Just my hunch.

 

-----

Prior to the college season Tua and Herbert were largely seen as the #1 and #2 picks (assuming QB needy teams). Burrow was not really on the radar and now he's being compared to Andrew Luck as far as sure-fire franchise QB. Just ... interesting. I almost expect to sit here next year and hear about how Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence are maybe Top 10 guys but [insert new named QB here] is the generational talent who will go #1.

[mistertim]

55 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Would put us in a very interesting position:

 

 

Wut?

 

The only way Cincy picks Herbert over Burrow is if Burrow literally shows up to his interview drunk and not wearing pants. 

 

I could potentially see Herbert going to 10, but I think top 5 would be tough. There are already 3 guys who are basically locks in the top 5: Burrow, Young, Okudah. Then for the final two you have multiple guys who could go...Jeudy or Lamb, Wills, Thomas or Wirfs, maybe even Simmons if someone truly believes he's the next Derwin James.