2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[evmiii]

Lots of free agent QBs out there this year.  Cincy could decide to go with Bridgewater or any of the other free agents and take the generational pass rusher leaving us in the Burrow driving seat.  I think there would be an offer we can't refuse.  

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[mistertim]

51 minutes ago, evmiii said:

Lots of free agent QBs out there this year.  Cincy could decide to go with Bridgewater or any of the other free agents and take the generational pass rusher leaving us in the Burrow driving seat.  I think there would be an offer we can't refuse.  

 

I kinda doubt Bridgewater would really want to go to an awful team like Cincy. He'll likely have multiple suitors this season so I'd think he'll want to go somewhere that has promise and he can help get to the next level. Other than him who will be out there that isn't at the tail end of their career? Brees (I think he'll either retire or sign a short term deal in NOLA), Brady (same probably), Eli (meh), Rivers (meh)...all old guys who maybe have one or two years left. They aren't guys to build around and Cincy is in rebuilding mode. I don't see them passing on Burrow for a stopgap, even if it means passing on a guy like Chase Young. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

1 hour ago, evmiii said:

Lots of free agent QBs out there this year.  Cincy could decide to go with Bridgewater or any of the other free agents and take the generational pass rusher leaving us in the Burrow driving seat.  I think there would be an offer we can't refuse.  

 

You don't go 1-15 and then hand the team over Teddy Bridgewater.

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I kinda almost feel bad for those Tackles. They never had anything even resembling a chance. It's like a high schooler going up against an NFL player. It's nuts watching a 6'5 265 lb guy with that sort of agility. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

If we trade down to 5, the Dolphins take Tua, the Lions take Young, and the Giants take Simmons.

 

If Young is off the board, I think the Giants take Andrew Thomas.  I think they'd have Okudah over Simmons too.

 

I think Simmons deserves to go in the top five, but I don't think he will.  I think it will be some order of Burrow, Tua, Thomas, Young, and Okudah.

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I wonder if Rivera would consider trading for Luke Keuchly

 

I wouldn't trade higher than a fourth for him.  We're not close to a Superbowl contender and his football mileage is very high.

 

I think he's worth more to Carolina than anyone else.  I think he'll retire as a Panthers lifer.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

A good logical argument can be made that the only trade down to where we can say we have a shot at Simmons is 3rd overall.  I think Simmons is going to be a Top 5 pick, and I'm guessing he's going no later than 4.

 

 

 

Many like D. Brown.  I've seen him mocked often to Detroit at 3.  And Gettleman is obsessed with the trenches so it wouldn't shock me if they take an O lineman.   I can see Simmons dropping to 5, not sure if much further but maybe to like 7 or so.

 

Edit:

Top 5:  Burrow, Tua, Young I presume are locks if Tua is healthy.

Then you got Thomas, D. Brown, Okudah, Simmons likely competing for that next round of players.  But I think Herbert (lets say SD or whomever feels desperate for a QB) and Lamb and Jeudy might be somewhere in the mix, too. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

The Giants are in a fascinating spot.  Gettleman doesn't trade down - ever.  So I strongly believe they are staying put at #4 no matter what.  They have strong needs at OT, EDGE, LB, and CB, which aligns nicely for them with the top players in the draft (Thomas, Young, Simmons, Okudah).  If I had to guess, I think they'd take the highest rated OT on their board, for a few reasons:

1.  Their current OT's are terrible.

2.  Their QB has an extreme fumbling problem, and it's mostly because he has a hard time feeling pressure on the edge.

3.  That's a huge issue, because the EDGE players in the NFCE are going to feast if they go up against weak OTs.  Demarcus Lawrence, Brandon Graham, Chase Young, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, Derek Barnett.  That mix is enough to make any QB turnover prone, but it will be especially tough for "Danny Dimes" to deal with.

4.  Gettleman loves his "Hog Mollies"

 

Their RT is a free agent.  Their LT has a 13 million dead cap hit if cut.  Regardless, they've got room for an OT.  I'm looking at their draft history and holy crap do they not like drafting OT's.  There's no depth here.  They've drafted some late round college OT's and converted them to Guard.  But none of them seem to have played OT in the NFL that I can see right now.

 

2019 - 7th round, didn't make the team.

2018 - Nobody

2017 - 6th round, played 1 game at RT, then I think got cut immediately

2016 - Nobody

2015 - Ereck Flowers in the 1st round

2014 - Nobody

2013 - Justin Pugh in 1st round, but converted to Guard in 3rd year

2012 - Nobody

2011 - Nobody

2010 - Nobody

2009 - Will Beatty in 2nd round, played LT for awhile

2008 - Nobody

2007 - Nobody

2006 - Nobody

2005 - Nobody

 

I mean look at that, since Tisch and Mara got promoted to owners by their respective families, that's 15 years and almost no OT's were drafted.  Only 3 were drafted on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft.  At a certain point you have to think the owners are saying draft other positions besides OT.  The only 2 others drafted were in the past 4 years, and neither really count.  1 combined game between them?

 

They rarely draft OT's, but when they do it's in the first 2 rounds.  So it's possible.

 

Quote

5.  They invested heavily in the CB position in the 2019 draft, so if Okudah falls to them, I'm not sure they put more resources there.

 

Their 4th rounder, Julian Love, only played as a Safety (I think).  They spent a 1st rounder, #30, on DeAndre Baker.  So maybe they feel comfortable there, but he had a poor rookie year...so maybe not?  But this goes into my argument that they'd draft Simmons over Okudah at #4 in 2020.

 

If we check out Gettleman's 5 years with the Panthers, he drafted:

 

2017 - 1 OT (2nd round Moton) and 1 CB (5th round Elder)

2016 - No OT's but 3 CB's (2nd round Bradberry, 3rd Worley, 5th Sanchez)

2015 - No OT's and no CB's

2014 - No OT's and no CB's

2013 - No OT's and no CB's

 

Gettleman's history (both Carolina and New York) of Hog Mollies.  On defense, absolutely.  He's drafted 3 DT's in the 1st round.  He's also drafted a CB and a LB in the 1st round.  But on offense he's only drafted QB, WR, and RB in the 1st round.

 

If I had to guess, I think he rolls the dice with another OT in Free Agency, and then goes after Simmons in the draft.  If the Lions take Simmons, then either it's Okudah, or maybe the big bull rushing DE, Epenesa?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Many like D. Brown.  I've seen him mocked often to Detroit at 3.  And Gettleman is obsessed with the trenches so it wouldn't shock me if they take an O lineman.   I can see Simmons dropping to 5, not sure if much further but maybe to like 7 or so.

 

Edit:

Top 5:  Burrow, Tua, Young I presume are locks if Tua is healthy.

Then you got Thomas, D. Brown, Okudah, Simmons likely competing for that next round of players.  But I think Herbert (lets say SD or whomever feels desperate for a QB) and Lamb and Jeudy might be somewhere in the mix, too. 

 

Yeah, they could go WR.  I can see that, or add another DT if he can't re-sign Leonard Williams.

 

I haven't bothered to scout D. Brown, or Kinlaw, or anyone in the IDL...we're stacked there, so I'm not sure if I will later on either.  So no idea how D. Brown stacks up talent wise with the Top of the draft.

[HTTRDynasty]

12 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

If I had to guess, I think he rolls the dice with another OT in Free Agency, and then goes after Simmons in the draft.  If the Lions take Simmons, then either it's Okudah, or maybe the big bull rushing DE, Epenesa?

 

Nice job on the research.  I still think they go OT in the draft though.  It makes too much sense IMO.  Need to protect their franchise QB and need to improve their rushing attack, which seems to be Gettleman's main focus.  

 

 

Nothing would really surprise me though when it comes to this man.

[volsmet]

Burrow

Young

Okudah

Thomas

Tua

 

That’s the way the drafts top 5 looks to me today.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Nice job on the research.  I still think they go OT in the draft though.  It makes too much sense IMO.  Need to protect their franchise QB and need to improve their rushing attack, which seems to be Gettleman's main focus.  

 

 

Nothing would really surprise me though when it comes to this man.

 

That is compelling, and does look like an OT.  I also hope they go OT instead of Simmons (or Okudah).

 

Is he going off raw yards per game?  That's a misleading statistic, since teams run to protect a lead in the 2nd half of games.  By DVOA the top rushing teams were:

 

1) Ravens - yes

2) Cardinals - nope

3) Cowboys - nope

4) Packers - yes

5) Titans - yes

6) Seahawks - yes

7) Panthers - nope

8 ) Colts - nope

9) Browns - nope

10) Eagles - yes

 

That's a pretty even split for the Top 10.  5 made it and 5 didn't.  Even if you say just the Top 4 teams, then 2 made it and 2 didn't.  However if you go by passing efficiency, then the Top 4 teams all made the playoffs.  Ravens, Chiefs, Saints, and Seahawks.

 

In homage to Dan Snyder's poorly delivered Thanksgiving joke.  I'm thankful that when Gettleman talked about hiring some "computer folks", it seems he's talking about stuff he doesn't understand.  It also means he doesn't get statistics, doesn't get situational football, and hasn't changed the stats he's used since he came into the league.  No wonder Tisch and Mara hired him, he's old fashioned.

 

Also makes me think Tisch and Mara likely screwed up with their head coaching hire, choosing someone, anyone, from the Patriots that wouldn't interfere with their power structure (like Josh McDaniels would).  We all know Landon Collins is just a wee bit overpaid.  Disregarding the contract, I'm happy he's here.  But I still can't believe a Giants owner, specifically Tisch, intervened and cancelled a Landon Collins trade at the deadline last year.

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Burrow

Young

Okudah

Thomas

Tua

 

That’s the way the drafts top 5 looks to me today.

 

I was wondering if the Giants may go with Wills instead of Thomas since Gettleman is such a proponent of the run game. IMO Wills is a much better run blocker than Thomas is...more of the road grader type. Biggest question for me is whether he can successfully move to LT in the NFL, since he's been a RT his whole college career. 

[Anselmheifer]

28 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Burrow

Young

Okudah

Thomas

Tua

 

That’s the way the drafts top 5 looks to me today.

I second this and hope for it. Looks like board consensus on Thomas is that he is good, but not too 5 good. I’d prefer they take that to taking Jeudy or Okudah. 
 

Where do you think Jeudy goes? I wouldn’t pass on chase, but I wish I could see Jeudy playing across from McLaurin. I hope Jeudy winds up on a team I don’t hate, so I can root for him. 

[Pick6]

I think Tua drops out of top 10. I think being cleared medically and actually playing at his level of football are two different things. Even Tua has said after his surgery he won’t be able to do the same things he used to be able to. This is an Alex Smith level injury. It ended Bo Jackson’s career. Tua also has a history of injuries. I think Miami takes Herbert or takes a risk and waits if Tua falls to #18. The Giants took Daniel Jones when everyone thought Haskins would go before him. 

[HTTRDynasty]

47 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

In homage to Dan Snyder's poorly delivered Thanksgiving joke.  I'm thankful that when Gettleman talked about hiring some "computer folks", it seems he's talking about stuff he doesn't understand.  It also means he doesn't get statistics, doesn't get situational football, and hasn't changed the stats he's used since he came into the league.  No wonder Tisch and Mara hired him, he's old fashioned.

 

Yeah, it's amusing how behind the times he is.  I can't believe our good fortune that they fired Shurmur instead of him.  I hope he sticks around for at least as long as Bruce stuck around here.

 

 

[SoCalSkins]

18 minutes ago, Pick6 said:

I think Tua drops out of top 10. I think being cleared medically and actually playing at his level of football are two different things. Even Tua has said after his surgery he won’t be able to do the same things he used to be able to. This is an Alex Smith level injury. It ended Bo Jackson’s career. Tua also has a history of injuries. I think Miami takes Herbert or takes a risk and waits if Tua falls to #18. The Giants took Daniel Jones when everyone thought Haskins would go before him. 

There is a small chance it’s a career ender. If he has avascular necrosis which is basically the hip bone dying, it’s over. Bo Jackson had it. His MRI is going to determine his draft status more than anything else. I doubt he’s too 10 as well regardless. Too much risk.
 

Although you could see Bellichick jumping in to take him . Then he will magically recover and be a combo of Lamar and Brady. 😂 

[RemoveSnyder]

Personally I wouldn’t touch Tua, not early. Never thought he was the #1 QB anyway even prior to the hip.

[mistertim]

Tua is such a wildcard now. I would be hesitant about taking him top 5 after that injury, since there's no way to know if he'll ever be the same player as his mobility and athleticism were such major parts of his game. Someone can heal fine from an injury but as @Pick6noted, being cleared medically and playing his level of football again are two different things. I could see Miami possibly pulling the trigger at 5 but I could also see him drop much lower. His stock with teams will possibly be all over the map. Some of it will also have to do with whether he has a pro day and can work out for teams to at least show that he can still sling it like before. Not the same as a game situation but it's better than just being cleared medically.

[HigSkin]

 

[Anselmheifer]

Disagree with all of this stuff about Tua falling. I think Miami is his floor. There is obviously risk there, but he’s played like a top 3 draft pick for 2 years. 
 

im not sure what I think of Jalen Reagor. His speed looks less impressive than advertised, at least to my eye. I’d start to consider him at the top of the 4th maybe.

 

 

volsmet, Who do you like on OL this year that may be in our range? If we resign Scherff and flowers, we should be pretty flush in the interior OL, but even if Trent resigns, we could use reinforcements at tackle. 

[PartyPosse]

I am 150% sure Miami is taking Herbert. 

 

 

[Conn]

Reagor has gotta be one of the more polarizing guys so far, at least within the twitter community. 

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I am 150% sure Miami is taking Herbert. 

 

 

 

5 overall is way too high for Herbert IMO. He's a good prospect, but too many holes in his game to be elite. 

[volsmet]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I was wondering if the Giants may go with Wills instead of Thomas since Gettleman is such a proponent of the run game. IMO Wills is a much better run blocker than Thomas is...more of the road grader type. Biggest question for me is whether he can successfully move to LT in the NFL, since he's been a RT his whole college career. 

The draft is relatively loaded on the line, I’d prefer to see them go OL at 4 than Simmons.