Hypothetical: What Salary going forward for Kirk Cousins

[illone]

I don't think very many of you guys pay attention to the rest of the NFL.

 

Open your eyes and look around, dudes.  Starting QB money in the NFL is way more than some of you guys think.  Right now Kirk is WAY underpaid and it doesn't even matter the teams' record.

[Alexa]

If he finishes in the top 10 QB's, he's going to be a 10-12 million per year guy. If we don't offer him that, somebody likely will. Again, that's based on him finishing in the top 10 and I don't think our record will really matter. If we finish with a bad record and Cousins finishes in the top 10 QB's, some teams will look at that and say "He was good on a bad team" and offer him something in that 10-12 million range. I think at the bare minimum he will fall into the "stewards" category. His inconsistent play aside, he has already proved that he can be a serviceable NFL QB at the least. QB's don't grow on trees and if Cousins has a strong second half, he's going to get a contract that pays him 10 million plus a year.

This is exactly how I feel. He has already proven to be serviceable.

[MartinC]

And his agent would laugh in your face. You guys need to read through this thread then go study current starting QB salaries in the NFL. I said he was getting at least 10 mill per year earlier in the thread. If he is your true starter 10 Mill per year is a bargain in the current NFL. He will probably actually average quite a bit more than that with a back loaded deal.

Its been said already but I think Kaepernicks deal with the 49ers might be the model. It looks like a long term $100M plus deal but its actually a 2 year $25M deal with one year team options after that and salary incentives and de escalators based on his and the teams performance. After the initial two years the only guarantees are for injury and the team can cut him with no cash owed (but some salary cap damage).

We could offer something similar. Something that is effectively a 2 year deal for about $25M with say $12M up front but over a 5 year deal so we can spread that signing bonus out and team options on the last 3 years sounds about right. That assumes he continues to play at or about the level he has so far (some good, some not so good but no terrible and overall serviceable).

If he catches fire and plays at the level he did in the second half of the Tampa game going forwards hes going to cost more than $25M over two years. Which would be a good thing.

[ExoDus84]

His salary and whether we even retain him will depend on his performance the rest of the season. If he continues to be up and down, I'd say we draft a QB, and give him a 1-year deal worth about 3-4 million as a stopgap. If he plays well, it's still only 1 good season, so you don't give him a $60M+ deal. If he plays well through the end of the season, I'd offer him a 3-year, $20-$25 million deal, with a voidable 3rd year in case he regresses. In the meantime, I'd still draft a QB. Colt McCoy won't be the long term answer at backup and/or starter.

[pcbothwel]

And his agent would laugh in your face. You guys need to read through this thread then go study current starting QB salaries in the NFL. I said he was getting at least 10 mill per year earlier in the thread. If he is your true starter 10 Mill per year is a bargain in the current NFL. He will probably actually average quite a bit more than that with a back loaded deal.

 

 

His salary and whether we even retain him will depend on his performance the rest of the season. If he continues to be up and down, I'd say we draft a QB, and give him a 1-year deal worth about 3-4 million as a stopgap. If he plays well, it's still only 1 good season, so you don't give him a $60M+ deal. If he plays well through the end of the season, I'd offer him a 3-year, $20-$25 million deal, with a voidable 3rd year in case he regresses. In the meantime, I'd still draft a QB. Colt McCoy won't be the long term answer at backup and/or starter.

 

I'm trying not to keep contributing to this thread for at least another 3-4 weeks to see how Cousins projects... But for the life of me i really can't understand what some of you are thinking. Please see CLSkinsfan post above.

 

A 27 y/o QB in his first season as the starter throws for 4000 yds, 20 TD's, 18 Ints, 68 Comp %, and 85 QB Rating (Current Season Projections) and you think he signs a 1 year / 3-4M deal... What are you smoking?!?

 

Andy Dalton just got 6/96M this off-season after throwing for 3400 yds, 19 TD's, 17 Ints, and 64% Comp, and 84 QB Rating.

 

And if "He Plays Well" then you're looking at about 4,300+ yds, 25+ TD's, Less than 15 Ints, 70% Comp, and 90+ QB Rating. He sure as hell wont sign a 3/20-25M deal. Probably a 4/70M minimum and closer to 5/90M.

 

I agree about drafting a QB. I see GMSM drafting a QB in rounds 2-5 either way (2 if Cousins bombs, 2-4 if he stays the same, 4-5 if he gets better)

[greenspandan]

you want to discuss his salary right after the best game of his career?  remind me not to put you in charge of cap management once Dan sells me the team.

[pcbothwel]

you want to discuss his salary right after the best game of his career?  remind me not to put you in charge of cap management once Dan sells me the team.

 

My God Man... Read the damn Thread Title. It is hypothetical and assuming that Kirk proceed on the EXACT SAME TRAJECTORY he has shown so far over the first 7 games.

 

Are you saying it would have been more accurate if we projected after his previous game against the Jets?... The forecast changes as the variability is narrowed due to more games played out of the 16. I.E. More data.

[Taylor703]

Andy Dalton also had 33 TDs and 27 TDs the season before the 19 and 17 year. Andy Dalton also has made the playoffs every season since his rookie year and he's never thrown more picks than TDs. Andy Dalton is a better player and it's not really all that close.

[Taylor703]

My God Man... Read the damn Thread Title. It is hypothetical and assuming that Kirk proceed on the EXACT SAME TRAJECTORY he has shown so far over the first 7 games.

Are you saying it would have been more accurate if we projected after his previous game against the Jets?... The forecast changes as the variability is narrowed due to more games played out of the 16. I.E. More data.

He's averaging one TD pass a game. Considering he had 1 in every game except for this last one you'd have to consider the three TDs an anomaly. So if he were to stay on his current average of 1 TD a game and 2 picks every other game which has been the most consistent average this season he's going to end up throwing 18 TD and 16 interceptions. I believe his current average will have him under 4K yards passing as well. This is what people want to pay a lot of money for?

And the really crazy thing is he's had three picks dropped in the games he didn't throw interceptions in. One against the Rams and two against the Bucs. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the Conte pass however. So the reality is the turnover issues have not gone away. This seems like it's going to be an issue for him for the rest of his career. I worry about giving him long-term money.

[William Barbour]

He's averaging one TD pass a game. Considering he had 1 in every game except for this last one you'd have to consider the three TDs an anomaly. So if he were to stay on his current average of 1 TD a game and 2 picks every other game which has been the most consistent average this season he's going to end up throwing 18 TD and 16 interceptions. I believe his current average will have him under 4K yards passing as well. This is what people want to pay a lot of money for?

And the really crazy thing is he's had three picks dropped in the games he didn't throw interceptions in. One against the Rams and two against the Bucs. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the Conte pass however. So the reality is the turnover issues have not gone away. This seems like it's going to be an issue for him for the rest of his career. I worry about giving him long-term money.

 

So turnover issues have not gone away because he almost had turnovers? Interesting hypothesis.. Seems like an issue the rest of his career based off of a scatter amount in 16 games. It also seems like it wont be an issue based on a scatter amount of 16 games.

 

See what I did there?

 

I don't see why people can't allow the season to finish out. Many analysts like what the see from Kirk, and many don't. It's really based on Kirk from here on out and the team around him because he will not be able to carry the 2015 Washington Redskins to the playoffs alone. To say he can't improve when he has done exactly that this season. Is a terrible assessment. 

 

The average INT per throw in the NFL is 2.5%

Kirk's current average in 2.9%

The current average for most rookies in the NFL is well over 3.0%

 

Kirk's average last year was 4.0%

 

So, to say he isn't improving is a stretch, but by all means... Continue.....I'll check back in this thread after week 16.

[jucestain]

I'd be pretty happy with a 2 year deal for ~15 million. I don't think he takes anything less than $7 mil per year unless he performs poorly for the rest of the year he gets signed either here or elsewhere as a backup (then I could see him getting in the $2-4 million range). If he performs well enough to at least be signed as a starter, then he's gonna get in at least the $7-10 million range IMO. 

[Taylor703]

So turnover issues have not gone away because he almost had turnovers? Interesting hypothesis.. Seems like an issue the rest of his career based off of a scatter amount in 16 games. It also seems like it wont be an issue based on a scatter amount of 16 games.

See what I did there?

I don't see why people can't allow the season to finish out. Many analysts like what the see from Kirk, and many don't. It's really based on Kirk from here on out and the team around him because he will not be able to carry the 2015 Washington Redskins to the playoffs alone. To say he can't improve when he has done exactly that this season. Is a terrible assessment.

The average INT per throw in the NFL is 2.5%

Kirk's current average in 2.9%

The current average for most rookies in the NFL is well over 3.0%

Kirk's average last year was 4.0%

So, to say he isn't improving is a stretch, but by all means... Continue.....I'll check back in this thread after week 16.

Nobody is calling for him to be benched. This is an thread created to talk about an hypothetical salary situation so suddenly that idea is out of the picture? I'm using facts to come to a conclusion. I didn't flub the numbers due to his "dropped interceptions" as I didn't include them in the extrapolation. His turnover rate is very high but nobody is asking for him to be pulled and everyone has said we will wait until the end of the year to come to an solid conclusion.

[Rskins06]

7yrs-140,000,000 with100,000,000 guaranteed!!

Just do it!!! Let's go SM, Get'r dun!

[mistertim]

So turnover issues have not gone away because he almost had turnovers? Interesting hypothesis.. Seems like an issue the rest of his career based off of a scatter amount in 16 games. It also seems like it wont be an issue based on a scatter amount of 16 games.

 

See what I did there?

 

I don't see why people can't allow the season to finish out. Many analysts like what the see from Kirk, and many don't. It's really based on Kirk from here on out and the team around him because he will not be able to carry the 2015 Washington Redskins to the playoffs alone. To say he can't improve when he has done exactly that this season. Is a terrible assessment. 

 

The average INT per throw in the NFL is 2.5%

Kirk's current average in 2.9%

The current average for most rookies in the NFL is well over 3.0%

 

Kirk's average last year was 4.0%

 

So, to say he isn't improving is a stretch, but by all means... Continue.....I'll check back in this thread after week 16.

I'd say he's improved, but not by a whole lot. He still throws lots of INTs, often at very bad times. His mechanics still get consistently bad when he's pressured, still makes too many straight up boneheaded plays in general, and he still seems to have a hard time when defenses mask and change coverages...he's easy to game plan for I guess (like when the corner said in an interview that based on the tape he knew exactly what Cousins was going to do on that pick 6 in OT).

 

Also, can we please drop the "rookie" stuff? He's been in the NFL for 4 years. He's been in 4 offseason programs and taken the first team snaps in some. He's played in 4 NFL preseasons, has had 16 NFL starts and played in 5 others and has more starting time in Gruden's offense than any of our other QBs. Take the kid gloves off. Stop comparing him to rookies or talking about how he is a 4th year rookie. Its ridiculous. What about a 10 year NFL vet who is mostly a career backup but has played in some games? Should he be considered a rookie too? By that logic Todd Collins is STILL a rookie.

 

Anyway, if Kirk goes on to play the same as he has in the first 7 games...that is to say very inconsistent and spotty...then he should get mediocre money for being a mediocre QB. And I really think some of you are overestimating how much other teams would give him. Too many teams have been burned recently by paying a ton for QBs who have flashed promise but are still unproven as far as being consistently good. As I said before, crappy teams will have chances in drafts now to get the top QBs without having to pay too much money. If they can get the top QB prospect in the draft for (comparatively) cheap, why would they spend a ton on a guy who has been in the NFL for 4 years, will be 28 years old at the start of the next season, and has shown himself to be extremely inconsistent? It makes no sense.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Also, can we please drop the "rookie" stuff? He's been in the NFL for 4 years. He's been in 4 offseason programs and taken the first team snaps in some. He's played in 4 NFL preseasons, has had 16 NFL starts and played in 5 others and has more starting time in Gruden's offense than any of our other QBs. Take the kid gloves off. Stop comparing him to rookies or talking about how he is a 4th year rookie. Its ridiculous. What about a 10 year NFL vet who is mostly a career backup but has played in some games? Should he be considered a rookie too? By that logic Todd Collins is STILL a rookie.

 

 

Thank you. 

[Tsailand]

He's averaging one TD pass a game. Considering he had 1 in every game except for this last one you'd have to consider the three TDs an anomaly. So if he were to stay on his current average of 1 TD a game and 2 picks every other game which has been the most consistent average this season he's going to end up throwing 18 TD and 16 interceptions. I believe his current average will have him under 4K yards passing as well. This is what people want to pay a lot of money for?

According to ESPN, he is on pace for 21 TD, 18 INT, 3970 yards. A big part of the low TD and yardage totals is the lack od DJax, and that Gruden's passing game is less aggressive this year.

Last year he was on pace for 30 TD, 27 INT, 5100 yards.

He has an extremely low sack rate this year, as always.

Yes, he has the potential to be a very expensive QB. It just remains to be seen if he will make the needed improvements.

And the really crazy thing is he's had three picks dropped in the games he didn't throw interceptions in. One against the Rams and two against the Bucs. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the Conte pass however. So the reality is the turnover issues have not gone away. This seems like it's going to be an issue for him for the rest of his career. I worry about giving him long-term money.

Every QB has picks dropped. It all evens out.

[drowland]

I'd offer him what Brian Hoyer makes and that's about it.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

According to ESPN, he is on pace for 21 TD, 18 INT, 3970 yards. 

 

 

You know, I got excited when I read those projections (and I'm rooting big-time for Cousins). But, those are basically Jason Campbell's 2009 numbers (3,600 yards 20/15). It's interesting that I couldn't wait to move on from him and similar numbers would have me wanting to see more from Cousins. 

 

I think it's for two reasons: 

 

1) Campbell had started so many games by then

2) Cousins has shown the ability to make big throws/clutch plays

 

But, in the spirit of objectivity it's important to point out that we've had this type of output from a starting QB pretty recently and it wasn't really enough to lead us to a winning season.  

[TSO]

You know, I got excited when I read those projections (and I'm rooting big-time for Cousins). But, those are basically Jason Campbell's 2009 numbers (3,600 yards 20/15). It's interesting that I couldn't wait to move on from him and similar numbers would have me wanting to see more from Cousins. 

 

I think it's for two reasons: 

 

1) Campbell had started so many games by then

2) Cousins has shown the ability to make big throws/clutch plays

 

But, in the spirit of objectivity it's important to point out that we've had this type of output from a starting QB pretty recently and it wasn't really enough to lead us to a winning season.  

 

This is just further evidence that stats tell you very little. To my eyes, Kirk is better in the pocket than Campbell, has better command of the offense, makes quicker decisions, has better touch, has a much quicker release, is willing to release the ball in the first place, and will even get defense's to jump offsides with his cadences.  

 

I think I'd only give Jason's body structure as a clear strength over Kirk. He was a big boy.   

 

There's a reason why one excites you and the other doesn't, and it's not just because we had seen a lot of Campbell at that point, lol. 

[Cliffmark1]

You know, I got excited when I read those projections (and I'm rooting big-time for Cousins). But, those are basically Jason Campbell's 2009 numbers (3,600 yards 20/15). It's interesting that I couldn't wait to move on from him and similar numbers would have me wanting to see more from Cousins. 

 

I think it's for two reasons: 

 

1) Campbell had started so many games by then

2) Cousins has shown the ability to make big throws/clutch plays

 

But, in the spirit of objectivity it's important to point out that we've had this type of output from a starting QB pretty recently and it wasn't really enough to lead us to a winning season.  

the come backs are different aren't they. 

 

Cousins is just better than what we have had for a long time rookie RG3 excluded.  Ramsey I just didn't think was as good as Sean King or whatever when I saw them at tulane, brunell was sort of eh but steady, campbell could have been good I think but he just didn't have it. We really haven't had a QB that led comebacks like this since the 90s, imho.

[Newera]

Taylor come on with the almost stuff. You lose credibility with that. Just sayin. So after the crazy Baldwin catch in the super bowl and the fact the Seahawks didn't run lynch the hawks would probably be two time champs. And new England super bowl losers from another circus catch again in history, right?

It ain't in Wikipedia that way.

We could woulda coulda shoulda throughout history. Can't change what is to suit an argument. Comes across as sour grapes and winey.

Do you think Kirk is never going to throw a pick again in his life. You act like he shouldn't. He will. Still doesn't mean he won't turn into a decent qb.

What I like is he doesn't play scared. Plays fast. Throws to spots. Trusts his receivers. Doesn't take a lot of sacks. Stuff you can't coach.

What he is also showing is an ability to be clutch. And in sports clutch is everything. KC Royals baby!

Right now he is arguably playing better than all the quarterback 's in his class. Certainly according to John Keim in the 4th qtr.

That's a start. Because those other guys have a lot more games than him.

To keep this on topic. I think Kirk will probably get resigned when all is said and done. He ain't getting out of here.

After 20 years we just might have someone ready to take the mantle. We gonna find out.

[ZRagone]

Attempted to add or take into account "Dropped Interceptions" on some kind of season long judgement of a quarterback is as foolish as attempting to dismiss or remove ones where you claim it wasn't the "QB's" fault.

The reality is, both sides of this whole thing have people who attempt to do one while largely ignoring the other.

Generally, these numbers even out. You're going to have some INTS that probably shouldn't have happened if not for bad play by your WR's, and you're going to have some INTS that probably should have happened if not for the bad play by the defense (or good play by your WR to break it up). So will every QB in this league, which is another reason why it's still fair to look at INT numbers compared to INT numbers without trying to remove/add to those totals based on "what ifs".

All of which is rather irrelevant here. This isn't meant to be a Kirk "Good or bad" argument thread. Nor was it made singularly about his last game or set in that time frame Greenspandan.

The hypothetical is that the last 9 look similar to the first 7 and asking what you'd be comfortable offering Kirk Cousins. If you're the type that thinks you need to account for dropped Int's (but not mistakes from WRs), okay. If you're the type that thinks you need to ignore INTs because you think it was someone elses fault, okay. Take what you saw the first 7 and imagine it over 9. It works just as well for either side of the debate.

[Taylor703]

Newera

-How does it cause me to lose credibility? I didn't include them in his interception total or the extrapolation. I'm basically stating that it's kind of scary that even in the games where he didn't throw interceptions he put the ball right in the defenders hands and they dropped it. It's not being added to his totals or anything like that. It's just alarming.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Attempted to add or take into account "Dropped Interceptions" on some kind of season long judgement of a quarterback is as foolish as attempting to dismiss or remove ones where you claim it wasn't the "QB's" fault.

Well there is this lol...

 

The Interceptable Passes Project

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

Newera

-How does it cause me to lose credibility? I didn't include them in his interception total or the extrapolation. I'm basically stating that it's kind of scary that even in the games where he didn't throw interceptions he put the ball right in the defenders hands and they dropped it. It's not being added to his totals or anything like that. It's just alarming.

 

You need to watch more football if you are "alarmed" that QBs throw passes that could be intercepted but aren't.  It happens to every QB, every Sunday.  Were you as alarmed when these things happened to RGIII? Did you mention it on this board?