Tsailand Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 That cuts two ways, though. That's going to equal more INTs. I think one of the reasons Gruden is being so conservative this year and going with lots of shorter routes and more high percentage throws is to (try) an cut down on Kirk's turnovers. When he pushes it down the field he tends to either make much more risky throws (sometimes he obviously trusts his arm too much...he ain't Brett Favre), or is fooled by masked coverages easier. I think you're right. And I think it's bad for the team and bad for Kirk's development. Gruden has to do it to prevent Danny Boy from benching Kirk after a really bad game. That's why you saw us coming out running in the second half yesterday. We were up by "only" 13, but Gruden was determined that Kirk wouldn't get a chance to throw an INT. Hopefully he will be allowed to air it out after week 12 or so, when there isn't really a chance that RG3 will be brought in to play out the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeFan55 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 We can play these games for the next 5 months....but Like everything...it's not what YOU think someone is worth but what the MARKET determines the worth. Cousins will either be franchised or there will be a bidding war for him. Count on it. There are many teams that will be after Cousins with the NY Jets a perfect fit IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsailand Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Since there is a lot of cluelessness in this thread about what starting QBs cost, here are the veteran contracts for players drafted in recent years (2009-2012). Some QBs drafted in 2012, and all the ones drafted since, are still on their rookie contracts, so they aren't relevant.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always A Commander Never A Captain Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 We can play these games for the next 5 months....but Like everything...it's not what YOU think someone is worth but what the MARKET determines the worth. Cousins will either be franchised or there will be a bidding war for him. Count on it. There are many teams that will be after Cousins with the NY Jets a perfect fit IMO  I do think if he hit FA, there'd be a bidding war. A lot of QB needy teams out there. Since there is a lot of cluelessness in this thread about what starting QBs cost, here are the veteran contracts for players drafted in recent years (2009-2012). Some QBs drafted in 2012, and all the ones drafted since, are still on their rookie contracts, so they aren't relevant.  Interesting, so the cheapest non-backup contract is Nick Foles at 12.27 million per and 56% guaranteed. The rest seem to largely be between 16-19 million with the exception of Wilson (SB Winner) and Newton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbothwel Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Hence the Thread Title of hypothetical. As I mentioned earlier, if you project out the next 9 games you get: about 4000 yds, 20 TD's, 18 Ints, 68 Comp %, and 85 QB Rating.  I thought I would update the projection  4000 yds, 25 TDs, 16 Ints, 68 Comp%, 90 QB Rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobandweave Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I start by offering him a two year deal worth 16 million fully guarenteed which would place him as the 17th highest paid QB in the league on a per year salary. Dead middle of the pack.  If I had too I would franchise tag him for one season paying him the same 16 million dollars fully guarenteed. Either way I keep him but I tell him by showing good faith and giving us two years we promise that if he continues to do well next year before the start of year two discussions will occure about a bigger contract extension.  We really don't know how Cousins is going to work out.  Cousins had all of 9 starts before this season. He's now started all of 1 season combined.  The more comfortable a QB is in a system the better that player will perform. QBs like other positions need to play to see the bulletts flying around him to be comfortable and he's getting there. It takes time, you can't get that in practice, and he's getting better. Yesterday he notched another record in his resume for us, the first perfect game of the season for a QB in 2015. His future is looking incredibly bright now but he isn't quite ready for a big 100 million dollar deal. That 16 million is where I start though Since there is a lot of cluelessness in this thread about what starting QBs cost, here are the veteran contracts for players drafted in recent years (2009-2012). Some QBs drafted in 2012, and all the ones drafted since, are still on their rookie contracts, so they aren't relevant.  Where did that come from? I like to use this  http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2015  And where I got that 8 million number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedBeast Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I do think if he hit FA, there'd be a bidding war. A lot of QB needy teams out there. Interesting, so the cheapest non-backup contract is Nick Foles at 12.27 million per and 56% guaranteed. The rest seem to largely be between 16-19 million with the exception of Wilson (SB Winner) and Newton. And those are PAST negotiations. If we let him go it will be a mistake... Mark my words. Cap is going to go up and so will QB salaries. Would you take a new contract based on numbers from the past 2 to 5 years? Nope. Its a "futures" gamble....on both sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveakl Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 18.5 was the value last year for qbs. It will be higher next year. And if you do use it then it's 120% of the following year to use it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeFan55 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Man...it is painful reading these threads sometimes. You would think that after watching the fiasco over the last 2 years that people would be elated to see an offense run like a car instead of a donkey cart with RG3 behind center. Only a very few teams have a quarterback playing at a consistent high level right now. My hope is that Cousins plays at a high level thru end of season and gets to experience a bidding war for his services and gets out of Washington. The team is too toxic and the fan base is too fickle to deserve someone like him. Let him go on to greener pastures and let Snyder keep his 'toy'.....then the after 2 more years of regressing under RG3 and/or new coach...the fans can regret letting another good player shine somewhere else. Good grief.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedBeast Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 XF55? WTF? Side of mouth humor? Started out well than spiraled into loconess. >Insert "are you serious" gif here< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsailand Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Where did that come from? I like to use this  http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2015  And where I got that 8 million number  http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/type-veteran/  EDIT: Here are some more charts. First one is all QB contracts signed in 2014 which are still active. Second one is the top QB contracts signed this year.   ((there were actually a bunch more which I didn't bother to put in this second screenshot because they all one year deals for about a million to backups -- completely irrelevant to the kind of contract KC will command) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoDannyBoy Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I think he gets a three year contract at the lower end of the market rate. 3 yrs, 50 million with 25M guaranteed. We still draft a young QB in the 3rd or 4th round and develop him. Scott keeps adding bigger and faster players so that in three years we are competitive every week.  RG3 goes to Dallas and he either lights it up behind their big line or he is done. He is not going to play here again and that was evident in the preseason. He looked lost behind center.  Kirk is playing well and that is a good problem to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 http://realredskins.com/2015/11/17/what-would-a-kirk-cousins-contract-extension-look-like/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedBeast Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 http://realredskins.com/2015/11/17/what-would-a-kirk-cousins-contract-extension-look-like/ That was my original guess...I think he will flex our situation and push for a longer term and greater guaranteed money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnboy99 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 RG3 goes to Dallas and he either lights it up behind their big line or he is done. He is not going to play here again and that was evident in the preseason. He looked lost behind center.    This is my nightmare scenario -  surely we can trade him out of the division - can't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redd Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'd feel more comfortable with giving him some big guaranteed money if he can win on the road. String some consecutive wins together and there's no reason not to offer him say 60 million over 5 years with 35 million guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 On a side note, I find it amusing that Tom Brady is only making $9MM per year.  Talk about a home town discount. That will change soon.  I've got Cousins making more than Brady next year, assuming he stays at the same numbers on the above chart. I think Tandler is pretty spot on with his guesstimation (very close to what I posted a few weeks ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_SKIN_OR_DIE Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Call me stupid if you want.......having 2 young QB is gold. We are not built yet. There is a lot of old QBs going out the door. Let them be trolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsailand Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is my nightmare scenario -  surely we can trade him out of the division - can't we? 1) He is not tradeable thanks to the $16M. We will cut him after the season, and he will be free to go anywhere.  2) I'd love a chance to see our D tee off against RG3. I bet they would too.  3) Nobody cares about RG3. This is the Kirk Cousins Sixty Million Dollar Man thread.  On a side note, I find it amusing that Tom Brady is only making $9MM per year. Talk about a home town discount. That will change soon. He probably has a secret deal with Kraft involving future compensation. Massive violation of salary cap rules, but can you prove it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I hope that Cousins looks around and realizes that he's gotten 3 shots to 1) drive up his value by putting reps on film and 2) grab the starting job here in DC.  Late in 2013, he got 3 games. Early in 2014, he got 4-6 games. This year he was handed the job. I would love a situation in which he appreciates what Gruden has done for him and values the growth he's had under this coach.  That's not to say he shouldn't maximize his contract, but I hope if he hits the open market he doesn't bail on us without a shot to match his highest offer. That, more than the price, is what concerns me about him getting all the way to FA. He's going to be one of the best guys out there at the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I just hope we don't pinch pennies. If we decide Cousins is the man then pay him what good starting QBs make. If you go cheap at QB you end up with Rex Grossman again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShredder Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Andy Dalton also had 33 TDs and 27 TDs the season before the 19 and 17 year. Andy Dalton also has made the playoffs every season since his rookie year and he's never thrown more picks than TDs. Andy Dalton is a better player and it's not really all that close. I had posted about KC in September (http://es.redskins.com/topic/392083-i-want-cousins-to-start-16-games-this-fall/?p=10320061) and was conservatively optimistic about what seemed logical. A small sample size of stats, extending through multiple seasons, can only be viewed as speculative information. When you give KC (who I consider a Rookie going into his first full season as the starter) a full season of Starting QB attention, a trend is going to emerge. Basically you cannot assume anything. You have to be comitted to the process with the full season sample size of 16 games. The expectation will be in the hopes that your investement will pay huge dividends.  I'm going to assume that should the trend after 12 games is definitely revealing itself, you would be smart to attempt a discount on an extention before KC becomes more expensive. If he is trending up +12 games, extending him now would definitely afford you a discount. The odds of your investment paying off are 2:1. Either KC performs the same or better in the last 4 games and becomes more expensive at season's end, or the other 1/3rd of the time you will end up paying about the same now as you would at the end of the season (or maybe slightly less). It becomes an easy decision to extend him trending up, but only after 12-16 games.  KC could have something click for him and it's possible that when he knows that he's taken a big step forwards, he might chose to decline any negotiations until after the end of the season. You have many more examples of this in Major League Baseball. In the NFL, you have to get paid a huge deal at some point. KC knows where he is at this stage. I wouldn't expect anymore extensive talks about a contract extension until there's a continued upward trend moving past game 12.  When he trends up, as he is now and this continues, he will definitely demand Andy Dalton money. 3/30m is the same as 6/60m when you structure it to work the same. KC gets a large signing bonus and about 10m per year for 3 yrs is all the Skins are on the books for. Very feasible range for KC contract considerations with expectations being conservative.  How much would you believe they would have to pay RGIII to extend, if the roles and stats were reversed? Quiet a bit more of course. KC isn't costing more because of some branding. KC is all statistics and data. The Skins have nothing to lose by waiting for the situation to reveal itself.   3 yr/30m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShredder Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'd feel more comfortable with giving him some big guaranteed money if he can win on the road. String some consecutive wins together and there's no reason not to offer him say 60 million over 5 years with 35 million guaranteed.  Yes there are huge reasons not to give him 5yr/60m after one full season. It's a long list and each scenario of 5yr deals are losers for the team. 3/30m or 6/60m deals that are structured at 10m per year cap hit. Team can overpay for a backup for a year or two should KCs stock dump in his second full season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evmiii Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If he continues to play well he will have all the power in the negotiations. What other options do the Redskins have? Colt McCoy? Pay RGIII $16 mil? draft and start a rookie? Pick up a journeyman to fill the gap? I say we offer him a reasonable 3 year deal or 6 year escalating deal right now and get him signed. Draft a QB to back him up and learn and continue to build around him. Bruce seems to be very contract savvy so I'm confident he can get this done without killing the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsailand Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015  3/30m or 6/60m deals that are structured at 10m per year cap hit.  Have you read the thread? He would not accept those offers. Scott would not make them. They are insultingly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.