Hypothetical: What Salary going forward for Kirk Cousins

[ZRagone]

(Let me start by apologizing for the length, but I wanted to get all the info here for people to use.)

So this is a question I’ve been mulling for some time now and recent discussion in the “Cousins is the Man” thread spurred me to actually make my thoughts into something more substantive.

There’s been a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins and his future with this team; whether or not he can be “the guy” for us. It’s a conversation that is fully reasonable to have and there are legitimate arguments on both sides. However, for the purpose of this thread, I’m not looking to have those arguments.

Rather, I would like to focus on an oft overlooked issue in regards to that equation: the cost. Even the most ardent of Cousin’s backer’s would likely say “No way! Get rid of him” if he wanted the $20+ mil per year superstar type of salary. Similarly, even a big time Cousin’s detractor would probably think twice if we were able to sign him to a few years in the $2.5 mil backup rate. As such, I think a conversation about what level of monetary commitment people think is reasonable could be a very interesting one.

First, here’s some background information. I used THIS site to get the average per year salary for QB’s in the league. I then broke it down into 9 different tiers.

Superstars: $20.21 Million Per Year (MPY). Brees, Roethlisberger, Peyton, Rodgers. (High 22, Low 17)

New Blood: $19.68 MPY. Ryan, Flacco, Newton, Dalton, Kaep, Wilson, Tannehill (High 21.9, Low 16)

Old Vets: $18.44 MPY. Alex Smith, Palmer, romoSUCKS, Eli, Rivers, Cutler, Stafford (High 20.81, Low 16.5)

High First Rounders: $5.67 MPY. Luck, Griffin, Mariota, Winston, Bortles

Late First/Second Rounders: $1.72 MPY. Manuel, Manziel, Carr, Bridgewater, Smith

Those five groups should be pretty simple and self-explanatory, while the next need a bit of explanation. Stewards were brought in to compete with newly drafted guys or as a hold over till such a guy are found. Backups are guys who clearly are behind the starter OR were part of a 3 way competition situation.

Stewards: $4.21 MPY. McCown, Fitzpatrick, Henne, Hoyer, Mallet (High 5.25, Low 3.5)

Backups: $2.20 MPY. Spoiled for size below. (High 4.5, Low 1.13)

Sanchez, Daniel, Taylor, Cassel, Hill, Hasselbeck, Stanton, Moore, Anderson, Whitehurst, Gabbert, Schaub, Gradkowski, McCoy, Clemens, Jackson, Tolzien, Clausen

Finally, you have two oddities. First is Tom Brady. He’s making $9 a year. He CLEARLY is worth more than that, but that’s a whole different story. His contract is an anomaly that skews things so is removed. The other oddity is a group I have listed simply as “Question Mark”. They’re guys who just went to a new team that have injury or production questions but there’s no better option for either.

Question Mark: $12.64 MPY. Bradford, Foles (High 13, Low 12.27)

__________________________________________________________________________

So there are some number rangers for you to go with for the second part of this, which is a hypothetical:

Kirk Cousin’s final 9 games are similar to his first 7 this year. He puts up another couple of great games, another couple of stinkers, and a handful of ones you could argue either way slightly. We go 3 and 6, splitting with Dallas while having the same results against the Giants (lose) and Eagles (win).

In that situation, what level of salary and years would you be willing to offer Cousins to try and retain his services (regardless of whether you think he’d accept such an offer)?

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

The salaries listed for the Steward section. 2-3 years, with the third maybe being an option.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Well, we won't know until the end of the season, clearly, because the story is still being told.

 

The thing is that he's going to be a valuable commodity, regardless of how he finishes the season.  He'll be either the #1 backup QB available, or one of those "journeyman" starters as the absolute worst case.

 

So, I think he would be no lower than a "steward."  (unless the wheels come completely off.)  That puts him minimum in the 3.5- 5.25 range.

 

Now, the question is the upside:  If he plays the way he played yesterday, he's going to help himself out a lot. 

 

There really needs to be a group of "Good but not great starting QBs" that ranges from about $8-12m per year.

 

IF Cousins finishes the year the way he played against the Bucs, I'd say he would fit into that range.  

 

IF Cousins finishes the year the way he played against the Jets/Giants, then he's a Steward.

 

 

Also, if he finishes as a "steward" it's possible that some other team might throw him more money to compete for a starting job.  Half the teams in the NFL could use a new QB.  

 

Laws of supply and demand will demand that he gets over-paid, here or elsewhere.  

 

EDIT: 

 

Another scenario would be if Cousins elevates, the 'Skins lose a bidding war (because they're just not going to pay him $16-$18 million a year, and some other franchise is willing to (which also means that they won't franchise him)), then you're totally screwed.  I'm not sure what they do in that scenario.  Keep Griffin and hope he learned something? Draft a guy?  I dunno.  That's kindof the ultimate nightmare scenario for me.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Somewhere between stewards and 1st round draft picks.  Between 4 & 5 million per x 3 years max. 

 

Given your hypothetical, I can't see him getting more than that on the open market.

 

The great thing is we don't have to assume anything, we get to see it.  I'm sure our GM is much less week to week than our fanbase and won't make any rush to judgment.

[88Comrade2000]

Are you talking long term contract?  Meaning 3-5 years?

 

 

I wouldn't offer him a long term contract.  I would need to see him play 2 full seasons as starter before offering him a long term contract. I would give him a one year deal with an option for a second year.  The pay range would be on your salary scale: Stewards - maybe $4 million.

 

i would still draft a QB in 2016. Obviously, if Kirk is more successful; that drafted QB would just be a backup. Though that backup would be able to challenge for the job.

 

 

Would Kirk agree to my deal? Probably not, but I wouldn't offer a long term contract based on one season of the starter.  If someone offers hims more; then let him walk. 

[fearlessNelms]

If he finishes in the top 10 QB's, he's going to be a 10-12 million per year guy. If we don't offer him that, somebody likely will. Again, that's based on him finishing in the top 10 and I don't think our record will really matter. If we finish with a bad record and Cousins finishes in the top 10 QB's, some teams will look at that and say "He was good on a bad team" and offer him something in that 10-12 million range. I think at the bare minimum he will fall into the "stewards" category. His inconsistent play aside, he has already proved that he can be a serviceable NFL QB at the least. QB's don't grow on trees and if Cousins has a strong second half, he's going to get a contract that pays him 10 million plus a year.

[pcbothwel]

I was thinking about this today and exactly the scenario you laid out. Basically, Cousins shows that he can play, but still inconsistent. If that is the case the Scot should find a QB in round 2 or 3 from the next group of guys after Goff/Cook. I.E. Hackenburg, Wentz, Doughty, Hogan, and Lynch. Let them sit for a year or two with Kirk as the starter... which brings us to your question:

 

1) I think you have to throw out all draft pick contracts and elite contracts (Luck, Winston, Brady, Rivers, Manning, Ryan, etc.)

2) You then have to throw out all contracts for clear cut backups (McCoy, Hasselbeck, Cassel, etc.)

 

You are then left with QB's who are low level starters or elite backups (McCown, Sanchez, Hoyer, Fitz)

 

That leaves you with a 2 or 3 year deal for around 3.5M (Mallett and Fitz) to about 5.5M (Hoyer, McCown, Sanchez)

 

The problem is that if Kirk projects better than any of them have as a full 16 games puts him at about 4000 yds, 20 TD's, 18 Ints, 68 Comp %, and 85 QB Rating.

 

Looking back, that stat line almost perfectly resembles the contract Fitzpatrick signed in 2011 with the Bills after he put 3800 yds /24 td / 23 int /62% comp.

 

Fitz was about to turn 30 in the 2012 season and signed a 6/60M contract with a 10M signing bonus and another 6M in roster bonus's (3M in 2013 and 2014) and 5M in "Option Bonus". 

I actually think this is the contract that seems most appropriate. We could conceivably cut him after the 3rd year and only be on the hook for 5M of a 10M salary.

[ZRagone]

So, going off the hypothetical, this would be my thought.

I'd offer him a 3 year, $21 million contract with $10 million guaranteed. It would start at $5 mil in year one and go up $2 each year there after. This should allow us to get out of with a little pain in year 2, and almost no pain in year 3.

On his end, that's more money he's likely to get anywhere as a "steward". It also allows him, if he's successful, to be renegotiating a longer term 3rd contract at 30 which isn't too old for a QB. It also keeps him in the "system" he's familiar with.

On the Redskins ends, the first few years are not much more than what we've been already carrying under the cap when you combine Griffin and Cousins already. It doesn't preclude you from taking a very affordable late 1st or early 2nd round QB to groom for the "future". It also gives you an easy "out" if that guy pans out or if Cousins just isn't working.

There's a chance a team out there possibly offers him more, in a Nick Foles type situation. But personally, I'd be willing to roll the dice elsewhere. With the value of the new Rookie Rage Scale, I'd be more apt to gamble in the draft than pay $9+ million a year to a vet I'm trying to figure things out about.

[Warhead36]

I can't commit any sort of $ to Cousins, even hypothetical, until season's end.

 

He needs to start stringing good games together.

[Stadium-Armory]

Along those lines, but not about salary specifically. When do we start talking about an extension? The common thought is that we're waiting to see how the season plays out but is that realistically what we should expect? I would not be surprised to hear that we have already started negotiations with his agent. There is risk to waiting until the off-season.

[ZRagone]

Fitz was about to turn 30 in the 2012 season and signed a 6/60M contract with a 10M signing bonus and another 6M in roster bonus's (3M in 2013 and 2014) and 5M in "Option Bonus".

That would be somewhat doable too. It's essentially just adding 3 years on top of mine, continuing the same increase.

6 for 60 would be...

1: $5 mil

2: $7 mil

3: $9 mil

4: $11 mil

5: $13 mil

6: $16 mil

The only down side would be that you can't really get out of it until year 3, and even then you're still feeling it for a number of years after. I'd prefer shooting for a 3 year deal, but the Fitzpatrick deal is absolutely a good comp for this hypothetical.

[DogofWar1]

Average contract per year for 2nd or later contract QBs who are starters begins at about 16M per year (Dalton, Palmer, Manning, Smith all between 16 and 17M).

 

There are some outliers, like Bradford, Foles, and of course Brady, though Brady does it on purpose because he wants rings, not cash, at this point.

 

If he finishes the year strong, I don't think you can lock him up for anything less than 12M a year.  QBs aren't cheap, and if he plays well, some team somewhere will gladly pay him big bucks.  We're seen as dysfunctional anyway, so another team will probably think they can get more out of him than we did and just pay him.

 

If he finishes so-so, and the market isn't hot for him (which it could be, so-so QB beats total stinker) he gets in the steward section, probably 5M to keep him for a year.  Give him that, see what his 2016 is like, and then, if he plays well, he's gonna want at least $16M.  If he's still so-so after 2016, might be time to look elsewhere, but keep him around, something like 4 year/$16M if his market is cold, but with lower guaranteed so he can be cut if we find a real solution.

[pcbothwel]

That would be somewhat doable too. It's essentially just adding 3 years on top of mine, continuing the same increase.

6 for 60 would be...

1: $5 mil

2: $7 mil

3: $9 mil

4: $11 mil

5: $13 mil

6: $16 mil

The only down side would be that you can't really get out of it until year 3, and even then you're still feeling it for a number of years after. I'd prefer shooting for a 3 year deal, but the Fitzpatrick deal is absolutely a good comp for this hypothetical.

 

TBH, If Kirk has a lot of faith in this team/offense and himself he should turn that down and take a 3/30 contract. If he shows little to no improvement, then he would have made at least 20 M from that contract (assuming he gets cut in two year), the money from his rookie contract, and 5M per from age 31-35 being a backup. Basically ends up being 7yr/50M from 2016 on. Sounds like a pretty high floor to me.

 

However, if he blows up in 2016 to 2018, then he is looking at being a FA going into his age 31 season (Absolute Prime for QB's) and could get a contract for 4-5 years for 20M per. 

If he signs the 6/60M deal, he doesnt stand to make much more than the 3/30M deal + backup money, but its a lot less than 3/30M + Top 10 QB Money...

[Burgold]

Not sure if Cousins will stay if we lowball him if he has a average to good season. I think he is going to want a fair contract with no to little hometown discount.

I'd put that somewhere 7-12 m per. The exact number is based on his play. Frankly, everything is in Kirk's hands. He controls his future and his upcoming paycheck.

[ILikeBilly]

I can't commit any sort of $ to Cousins, even hypothetical, until season's end.

 

He needs to start stringing good games together.

He won't throw a single incomplete or INT next week.  Dude is money!!!

 

Sorry - bye week and I couldn't resist the old joke.

[pcbothwel]

It should also be mentioned who the possible suitors are:

1) Bills

2) Bears

3) Lions

4) Broncos

5) Texans

6) Eagles

7) Jets

8) Chiefs

9) 49ers

 

Now Goff and Cook will remove 2 teams (Probably Bears and Lions). The rest will go after Cousins, Stafford (If released), Alex Smith, and Bradford.

[ZRagone]

However, if he blows up in 2016 to 2018, then he is looking at being a FA going into his age 31 season (Absolute Prime for QB's) and could get a contract for 4-5 years for 20M per.

That's exactly why I'd say my offer would be a 3 year, $21 million. While it looks smaller in number, I think it'd be more attractive to him as it doesn't lock him in at a low balled number in the future but instead gives him the chance to play his way into a "major" deal of sorts at the start of his 30's

[TheGreatBuzz]

It should also be mentioned who the possible suitors are:

 

 

Now Goff and Cook will remove 2 teams (Probably Bears and Lions). The rest will go after Cousins, Stafford (If released), Alex Smith, and Bradford.

 

Not really sure I agree with all of these:

1) Bills-  I thought they were actually kinda happy with Taylor

2) Bears- Agree

3) Lions-Agree

4) Broncos- Are they not going to try to go forward with Osweiller?  Is Kirk better than him?  Dunno.  Haven't seen him.

5) Texans- Agree

6) Eagles- I don't think they traded for Bradford to give up on him that quick

7) Jets- Haha.  Who knows with that crazy bunch.

8) Chiefs-  I don't see any reason they are going to want Kirk over their current situation.

9) 49ers- I think they will want a bigger name.

[clskinsfan]

Somewhere between stewards and 1st round draft picks.  Between 4 & 5 million per x 3 years max. 

 

Given your hypothetical, I can't see him getting more than that on the open market.

 

The great thing is we don't have to assume anything, we get to see it.  I'm sure our GM is much less week to week than our fanbase and won't make any rush to judgment.

 

Not a chance. He has shown the ability to come back in 3 of the past 4 games. Cousins is getting double digits per year from someone after this season. It may not be with us but he is getting at least 10 mill per year. Book it.

[DC9]

While I would be absolutely shocked/thrilled with a Super Bowl this year, I think we can take the Joe Flacco approach here and let the season play itself out. 

 

Don't get too high with the highs or too low with the lows.  Let the build happen.  That was definitely a solid performance. 

[Taylor703]

Not a chance. He has shown the ability to come back in 3 of the past 4 games. Cousins is getting double digits per year from someone after this season. It may not be with us but he is getting at least 10 mill per year. Book it.

No he's not. He has to show quite a bit more for someone to commit 10+ mil to him for multiple years. If he keeps up his good Kirk/bad Kirk play than he'll see somewhere around $5 mil per.

[clskinsfan]

No he's not. He has to show quite a bit more for someone to commit 10+ mil to him for multiple years. If he keeps up his good Kirk/bad Kirk play than he'll see somewhere around $5 mil per.

 

We will come back to this thread after the season. He is a QB. Not a guard. He is getting 10 mill per year from someone.

 

Lets look at it this way. The current franchise tag price for a QB is around 19 mill. The team picked up a 16 mill option on a QB who had shown absolutely nothing for 2 years. Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2011 signed a 6 year 59 mill deal with buffalo. RYAN ****ING FITZPATRICK and that will be 5 seasons ago at the end of the season. Cousins is young and has shown the ability to come back in games. He will get at least a  middle of the road QB salary...OR 10 mill per year

[Renegade7]

I can't commit any sort of $ to Cousins, even hypothetical, until season's end.

He needs to start stringing good games together.

This times one million. I want Cousin's to be the answer because of how hard its going to be to turn this around if he isn't. He still needs to earn that, and honestly, I don't feel he has yet. Needs to finish the season before we decide how much we want to lock ourselves to him.

[Koolblue13]

I think 3/30 is solid. I think he's going to look a hell of a lot better with Djax, Reed and CT in the game though.

[DogofWar1]

No he's not. He has to show quite a bit more for someone to commit 10+ mil to him for multiple years. If he keeps up his good Kirk/bad Kirk play than he'll

see somewhere around $5 mil per.

More?  Yes.  Quite a bit more?

 

Probably not.

 

QBs get PAID.  The people who are getting paid $5M are people the NFL knows aren't long term starter material.  A team grabs them for cheap because they are hoping they can find a system where the QB is not a net negative (net positive is too much to hope for), and function for a couple years while they find the guy of the future.

 

Kirk frankly isn't all that far off from starter material.  It won't be easy to bridge the gap, but if he raises his floor, he's got the chops to be an Alex Smith level guy, at least.  And for those guys 12M is a huge bargain.  16M is a more reasonable floor.