Hypothetical: What Salary going forward for Kirk Cousins

[goskins10]

Aren't the signing bonuses the part of the contract that are guaranteed? So that is a big deal

 

Actually no. The signing bonuses are indeed guaranteed, but are not always the only part of the contract that's guaranteed. For example, you can have a $50M contract with a $10M signing bonus and $30M of the entire contract guaranteed. So in addition to the $10M signing bonus and additional $20M is also guaranteed.

[daveakl]

True but any guaranteed money must go into a trust immediately. Most owners are reluctant to do that and most players would rather just have it up front.

[goskins10]

True but any guaranteed money must go into a trust immediately. Most owners are reluctant to do that and most players would rather just have it up front.

 

 

The players want the money but more and more the owners are lowering the signing bonus. They have a little more flexibility later in the contract in that they can take the left over guaranteed money and make it a signing bonus and spread it over more years. Of they can cut the player without as a big a dead cap hit, unless of course you are dallast who are so screwed if romo stays injured. They cannot get out that contract.

[daveakl]

The players want the money but more and more the owners are lowering the signing bonus. They have a little more flexibility later in the contract in that they can take the left over guaranteed money and make it a signing bonus and spread it over more years. Of they can cut the player without as a big a dead cap hit, unless of course you are dallast who are so screwed if romoSUCKS stays injured. They cannot get out that contract.

So in your example for cousins you have 10 million in signing bonus and 25 million of his salary guaranteed. What years and amounts of his yearly salary are you guaranteeing?

[goskins10]

So in your example for cousins you have 10 million in signing bonus and 25 million of his salary guaranteed. What years and amounts of his yearly salary are you guaranteeing?

 

 

The first $25M of his contract, which turns out to be the first 3 yrs, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The roster and workout bonuses do not count against the guarantee, only actual salary.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Some will be apoplectic by this but the following is IMO likely to be what the contract will look like below:

 

It's a 5 yr, $80M contract with $35M Guaranteed. 

 

I don't find those terms unreasonable, though I would try to get him to agree to a bit less guaranteed. What I would find extraordinarily distasteful is the way you structured it. 

 

G+Having a deal with a 6.4 mil hit in year one and a 22+ mil hit three years later is the kind of backloadng malarkey that gets teams in such cap trouble. And when we're a team that should be building towards the future, I would be really irked at that.

 

Likewise, guaranteeing all of someone's salary in year 3 of a deal, and especially a 5 year deal, is just bad business.

[goskins10]

I don't find those terms unreasonable, though I would try to get him to agree to a bit less guaranteed. What I would find extraordinarily distasteful is the way you structured it. 

 

G+Having a deal with a 6.4 mil hit in year one and a 22+ mil hit three years later is the kind of backloadng malarkey that gets teams in such cap trouble. And when we're a team that should be building towards the future, I would be really irked at that.

 

Likewise, guaranteeing all of someone's salary in year 3 of a deal, and especially a 5 year deal, is just bad business.

 

 

If you look at the numbers, the $22M in the 4th yr is not guaranteed. He can be released after 3 yrs with very little cap hit. So it's not really back loaded unless you keep the player and you don't restructure. You will restructure or release before that cap hit comes due. If you release there is only a very small dead cap hit. So it's pretty much just on paper.

 

Having yr 3 fully guaranteed is in lieu of a bigger signing bonus. You could say add $10M to his signing bonus making it $20M then make only part of the yr 3 salary guaranteed ($5M). But then you will have a higher dead cap hit if he gets injured or we want to release him early. You need to look at the deal in it's entirety, $35M guaranteed for a starting QB on a long term contract is fairly low.

[clskinsfan]

The first $25M of his contract, which turns out to be the first 3 yrs, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The roster and workout bonuses do not count against the guarantee, only actual salary.

 

The bonus's dont count against the guarantee. But if your the player you love the roster bonus's because if they cut you in year 3 the team will take a massive cap hit. So as a player you are really guaranteed that roster bonus in the first 3 years barring career ending injury of course. I agree with the contract structure you are talking about. I just think they will do it for a little less money. 5-6 years and 60-75 mill would be my guess.

[Rufus T Firefly]

If you look at the numbers, the $22M in the 4th yr is not guaranteed. He can be released after 3 yrs with very little cap hit. So it's not really back loaded unless you keep the player and you don't restructure. You will restructure or release before that cap hit comes due. If you release there is only a very small dead cap hit. So it's pretty much just on paper.

 

It's not about whether that 4th year is guaranteed. It's about constructing a contract to keep the numbers low in year 1 and then explode in later years. Giddy as people might be about our leading a really bad division, we're still a building team. I'd rather have cap space when we're contending, but you've sacrificed cap space then in exchange for space now. Instead, you're counting on re-doing the contract then, which, with a starting QB is when you should be negotiating an extension anyway. So in addition to everything else, you're just giving away any bargaining power.

 

Rather than signing a contract I'm planning on re-doing in the future, I'd rather just write it in a way that makes cap sense in the first place.

Having yr 3 fully guaranteed is in lieu of a bigger signing bonus. You could say add $10M to his signing bonus making it $20M then make only part of the yr 3 salary guaranteed ($5M). But then you will have a higher dead cap hit if he gets injured or we want to release him early. You need to look at the deal in it's entirety, $35M guaranteed for a starting QB on a long term contract is fairly low.

I just don't guarantee salary 3 years in unless it's a real huge contract to a blue chipper at his position who I need to do stuff like that with. If you're 100% sure Cousins is a Franchise QB, give him a longer and bigger contract. Otherwise (in other words, realistically) don't force your self to have to pay someone big money for 60% of the contract.

 

And again, you're doing that to keep the cap figure low in 16. We have space now, let's use it rather than put ourselves in a worse position when we'll need the cap space.

[mtruslow]

Everything I've read about him seems to paint the picture of a reasonable and humble guy.  Which is great and refreshing considering how things have been.  I say give him whatever it takes to keep him.  He's the best out there available.  

[goskins10]

It's not about whether that 4th year is guaranteed. It's about constructing a contract to keep the numbers low in year 1 and then explode in later years. Giddy as people might be about our leading a really bad division, we're still a building team. I'd rather have cap space when we're contending, but you've sacrificed cap space then in exchange for space now. Instead, you're counting on re-doing the contract then, which, with a starting QB is when you should be negotiating an extension anyway. So in addition to everything else, you're just giving away any bargaining power.

 

Rather than signing a contract I'm planning on re-doing in the future, I'd rather just write it in a way that makes cap sense in the first place.

I just don't guarantee salary 3 years in unless it's a real huge contract to a blue chipper at his position who I need to do stuff like that with. If you're 100% sure Cousins is a Franchise QB, give him a longer and bigger contract. Otherwise (in other words, realistically) don't force your self to have to pay someone big money for 60% of the contract.

 

And again, you're doing that to keep the cap figure low in 16. We have space now, let's use it rather than put ourselves in a worse position when we'll need the cap space.

 

 

 Maybe I kept the first yr too low. Lets say we do this?

                    

It's a 5 yr, $80M contract with $35M Guaranteed. He gets paid up front but it's team friendly on the back end. We get to decide when he is at 30 what we want to do.

 

Year Age   Base             Signing        Roster      Workout

                  Salary             Bonus        Bonus          Bonus        Cap Hit        Dead Cap

2016  28   $10,000,000   $2,000,000   $1,000,000   $400,000    $13,400,000

2017  29   $11,000,000   $2,000,000   $1,000,000   $400,000   $14,400,000 $23,000,000

2018  30   $12,000,000   $2,000,000   $1,000,000   $400,000   $15,400,000 $10,000,000

2019  31   $13,800,000   $2,000,000   $1,000,000   $400,000   $17,200,000 $4,000,000

2020  32   $17,000,000   $2,000,000   $1,000,000   $400,000   $20,400,000 $2,000,000    

                      $63,800,000    $10,000,000    $5,000,000    $2,000,000   $80,800,000

 

If you leave everything else the same - $35M guaranteed - Then only $4M of 2018 is Guaranteed. It also evens out the cap hit.

[Rufus T Firefly]

 Maybe I kept the first yr too low. Lets say we do this?

 

Yes, I prefer that one. Although you could just eliminate the bonuses and make them part of the guaranteed salary and not have to deal with guaranteeing any of the year 3 salary.

 

Also, this is one Cousins might sign. If we assume the price tag (16 per) and acknowledge the non-exclusive Franchise Tag as our fallback option at 20 mil, then he I really don't see  him taking that first contract, as you would have only paid him 39.2 mil in the first three years just over 13 mil per).

[Alexa]

Alex Smith and Tannehill are making an average of around 17 or 18 million? Kirk is proving to be on par with those guys. Highly doubt he's going to go for a contract with an average of 14 million over the next three years.

[Alexa]

From Cousins is the Man:

 

 

So which one is it? Is he mentally tough enough to handle the pressure or will it be hard for him? This is the kind of double talk that really makes you scratch your head. Alexa is not the only person, it's just the most blatant example I could find.

 

The fact is both of these are true, but the second statement is a clear attempt to defend him, and IMO for no reason. First, no one ever called him mentally weak, at least not in ES and certainly not lately. In terms of being timid, why would he not be timid? For 3 yrs he was told the job he currently holds was someone else's. Now it's his and that other person is still on the team! It's like you replacing someone at work in a key position because they failed. but not only are they not fired they are still on your team! There is nothing wrong with that causing you to sweat. It's a human response.

 

For Roberts part he has been extremely professional, as have Colt and Kirk I might add. It's the fans and media who takes there things and tries to create their own reality.

I think it's added pressure on Kirk if Griffin was the 2. That's natural because you still have pressure from the media and fans who still think Griffin should be the starter. Plus Griffin was rookie of the year. Kirk's had a couple of bad games which frankly was expected, if Griffin was dressed and on the sideline that's added pressure I think. Doesn't make you mentally weak. Kirk has proven that he's a pretty tough QB.

Griffin has handled all this very well by all accounts so good for him. But I do stand by that I think the coaches are more comfortable with Colt in there running THIS offense. That doesn't make Colt a better QB. He probably is for this system.

[goskins10]

Alex Smith and Tannehill are making an average of around 17 or 18 million? Kirk is proving to be on par with those guys. Highly doubt he's going to go for a contract with an average of 14 million over the next three years.

 

Actually it $15.7M/yr with the roster and workout bonuses. This was done as a fun exercise and to actually put some numbers in the form of a contract since most of the discussion has been in very general numbers.

 

You are comparing him to established 4 yr starters. Not sure he gets that's kind of money after just one year which is why I may it a little less. Maybe, but that's what this exercise is about. 

 

What kind of contract do you see? Do you have specifics?

[goskins10]

I think it's added pressure on Kirk if Griffin was the 2. That's natural because you still have pressure from the media and fans who still think Griffin should be the starter. Plus Griffin was rookie of the year. Kirk's had a couple of bad games which frankly was expected, if Griffin was dressed and on the sideline that's added pressure I think. Doesn't make you mentally weak. Kirk has proven that he's a pretty tough QB.

Griffin has handled all this very well by all accounts so good for him. But I do stand by that I think the coaches are more comfortable with Colt in there running THIS offense. That doesn't make Colt a better QB. He probably is for this system.

 

 

If he can handle it, what difference does it make if Robert is the #2 or #3? You are totally contradicting your yourself on one hand taking someone to task for calling him mentally weak (which they did not) saying he can obviously handle the pressure, then out of the other side you are saying that keeping Robert here is unfair pressure on Cousins.   If he is tough enough like you said in the first post, it should not matter, which I actually agree with.

[Tsailand]

What does your guess at a contract look like?

 

I'm afraid that anything I say will be less than the actual contract, but here's a rough guess:

 

Six years, $101 million, $40 million guaranteed.

$30M signing bonus up front.

Salary by year (includes roster and workout bonuses):

2016: $10M

2017: $5M

2018: $5M

2019: $10M

2020: $20M

2021: $21M

 

Team friendly on the back end.  The low 2017 and 2018 salaries are low to help the team compete hard for free agents those years.

[Area51]

I would just franchise him and see if he can continue to develop/progress at this rate, or will teams 'figure him out' next year and he starts throwing picks left and right.   

[Cliffmark1]

if im SM i sit down with KC and tell him you want him to start here for the next ten years. offer him 10 year 145mm. take care of the qb position.

[skins island connection]

 I like the idea of keeping Cousins, and I think most everyone else is on board with that notion.

 

 But, I'm not so sure about giving him a huge contract; if he's genuinely wanting to stay a Redskin, then let the GM offer him a 3 year contract loaded with options, WITH the ability to re-negotiate if he leads the team to the NFCC game.

 

If he does, then re-negotiate it, give him the big contract, but we have to make damn sure we don't piss away money on a 1 year fluke, not that I think he is, but this team has made too many errors on long-term contracts in the past with disastrous results.

 

He's young and still learning, so its on the coaches to elevate his game; I'm not sold on Gruden being this person.

[Warhead36]

You can structure contracts so it doesn't cripple you.

 

You don't pinch pennies when it comes to QBs. If you think you found one then you pay him. Unless you want to go back to the Rex Grossmans of the world.

[skins island connection]

You can structure contracts so it doesn't cripple you.

 

You don't pinch pennies when it comes to QBs. If you think you found one then you pay him. Unless you want to go back to the Rex Grossmans of the world.

 

 I see that angle, that's why I'd be more comfortable with a contract that's not so high but loaded with incentives.

The drawback to that is, whoever is calling plays basically controls his salary, unless he has more freedom to audible and they get some help in the offseason.

[Destino]

Since free agency started in its current form, no good quarterback in his prime has ever hit free agency (unless the team had a backup plan in place, like Philip Rivers with Drew Brees, who was coming off a serious injury). If it ever does happen, there might be a frenzy among teams who are truly desperate at quarterback. Look at how many suitors Josh McCown had this past offseason. There are some general managers who don’t have a quarterback and understand they won’t be around to reap the benefits of developing a new one. This will surprise you, but NFL coaches and general managers often make less-than-ideal decisions in an attempt to save their own jobs. So if some GM had a choice of overpaying Cousins, who has a 93.2 rating this season, or waiting on a college prospect like Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch to bear fruit, you can probably guess what he’d choose.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-winners-and-losers--would-you-sign-kirk-cousins-to-a-big-deal--040148394.html

[Veryoldschool]

I don't care if it is crazy money in the eyes of most folks to me keeping Cousins in the fold is the key to the Skins becoming something over the next 5 years.  Sign Kirk up, pay him 20,30, 40, 50% or more than he's worth I don't care.  Lock him in  and let Scot fill in the weak spots through the draft and some FAs and have Jay continue to grow as a HC and we got something.  Cousins is the key.  We got the franchise QB in the 2012 draft afterall.....:-)

[Veryoldschool]

If he can handle it, what difference does it make if Robert is the #2 or #3? You are totally contradicting your yourself on one hand taking someone to task for calling him mentally weak (which they did not) saying he can obviously handle the pressure, then out of the other side you are saying that keeping Robert here is unfair pressure on Cousins.   If he is tough enough like you said in the first post, it should not matter, which I actually agree with.

 

If Cousins is back next year he'll be the guy with the huge contract and corporate endorsement not Robert so I don't see how having Griffin around effects Kirk at all but it could have a detrimental effect on Griffin because Griffin doesn't seem to be able to run Gruden's WCO.  I don't think I'd want to stick in Washington if I was Robert Griffin.