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According to Schefter and PFT: Skins planning to cut Cobra Kai


Dissident2

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The rule changes in recent years is making the balancing test on a kicker difficult. The kickoff rule basically creates a huge disadvantage for any team whose kicker can't find the endzone.

 

I used to know the formula, but every extra yard of starting field position averages out to a certain percentage of points for the other. So, it's likely that kicker (like Kai) who doesn't get touchbacks costs as many points as he makes up by being an accurate kicker.

 

The question is of course, why wait till after the first game of the year? They had all training camp, preseason and previous years evidence to know that Forbath sucks on kickoffs. 

 

So if the reason is kickoffs for cutting him, that should have been done long ago ...

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I mean, if you can't kick it out of the end zone consistently then you need to be clutch and a guy who never misses. He struggled in preseason and missed a kick straight away in week 1, I'm sure he'll get picked up elsewhere but lets not act like this is the end of the world.

"In Scot I trust....UNTIL HE CUTS THE KICKER"!

****ing morons in here sometimes.*

*note--this is not aimed towards anyone expressing totally reasonable confusion or disagreement with the move, only those who are overreacting.

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If someone has the time and inclination, figure out the FG% of all the other kickers when you subtract anything over 50 yds.

 

I'm thinking Forbath's ranking on that list might be a bit more representative of his abilities.

 

Another consideration is that Kai's contract is up next year I believe, so this gives us a season of trying out his replacement since I don't think Scot intended to keep him past this year anyway.

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Anyone who really thinks he is being released simply because he missed a 47 yd FG in a 7 pt game is not very bright. Obviously there is more to it than that.  My only problem is that they didn't figure it out before the season started. He should have been replaced by Hocker last year.

 

He was a nice story but the fact is he was only half a kicker. Yes, he was solid inside 50 yds but he could not get the ball into the EX on KOs. That consistently gave the other team filed position starting more around the 30 than the 20. The difference in pts scored is pretty big.

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I posted this in the tweet thread.

 

Here is the link to the Skins kicker stats. Sort by FG%.

 

For those who don't want to click, FG% for kickers with over 45 attempts:

 

Forbath   60/69      87%

Suisham  81/101    80.2%

Hall         54/69      78.3%

Conway   52/69      75.4%

Gano       59/80      73.8%

Blanton    44/60      73.3%

Murray    35/48       72.9%

Lohmiller 175/245  71.4%

Moseley  263/397   66.2% 

 

Forbath is the most accurate kicker in team history by a significant margin.

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While I was never a big fan of Kai's (solely because of lack of leg strength), I get the sense that this is misdirected Gruden anger. I thought Gruden looked really bad, running all over Miami, but then burning a timeout on 4th and 1, to miss a FG.

 

The thing is, a 45 yarder on grass on a windy day, is no gimme. Was the snap and hold, perfect as well?

 

The problem lay more in that our OL cannot bulldoze for short yardage. Jay must learn to overcome this and not waste timeouts pondering over it. It's very simple. Immediately kick, get a more stout C in there (i thought Kory had the worst day of any of our OL), or design plays to get a yard with our mobile OL. Show a massive heavy jumbo, and go play action to our 4th TE.  Copy NE, and motion out of heavy jumbo the 2 hands TEs.  Or, go 4 wide on 4th and 1, and then run it. Be innovative.

 

Gruden should be mad at himself. If this is a bold move to shakeup the team, I am not sure they are getting the message if the wrong guy is getting cut.

 

He cut Hocker a year ago after a simple miss in preseason. But he clearly wanted Hocker, because he drafted him. Moar misdirected anger, likely after seeing Hocker had a fine day yesterday.

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26th in the league in FG% made in the last 2+ seasons, sucks bad at kickoffs at a time where an average kickers gets you a touchback like 80% of the time. The real crime was cutting Hocker, a drafted kicker, last year in favor of Kai.

Same could be said for every kicker we've had the last 10 years, and will be said about Forbath, yet we keep changing

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The rule changes in recent years is making the balancing test on a kicker difficult. The kickoff rule basically creates a huge disadvantage for any team whose kicker can't find the endzone.

 

I used to know the formula, but every extra yard of starting field position averages out to a certain percentage of points for the other. So, it's likely that kicker (like Kai) who doesn't get touchbacks costs as many points as he makes up by being an accurate kicker.

 

Not sure I can agree with this

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2014

Shows what the defenses average starting line of scrimmage drives were last year when Kai was kicking off.

Redskins average from the Defensive side was the 29.7 yard line, NFL average was the 27.63 yard line, difference of 2.07 yards. Now they were ranked 28th worst in the league in that stat but does that translate to wins/losses like an inaccurate kicker could?

Denver 24th

San Deigo 22nd

Steelers 21st

Reverse side of it

3rd Rams

5th Saints

7th 49ers

 

So three teams in the 20s with winning records and three teams at the top of the leader board with losing records makes it difficult to directly determine the high importance of 2 yards to me. I'm not saying it's not important, it is very important. I'm saying that I'm not sure its as important as an automatic kicker. That's hard to say

If your team doesn't score many TD's like the Redskins don't, and you consider that with XP now really 33 yard FGs the need for accurate short range kickers is a must for every team out there. That's why it's a no brainer that Kai goes to another team immediately.

 

In his three seasons here he hit

 

Made 18 out of 20 - 30 to 39 yard FGs

Made 22 out of 25 - 40 to 49 yard FGs

Made 2 out of 4 - 50-59 yard FGs

 

That to me is not that bad, it shows his limitations as a player. What good is 20 yard starting field poition if when your offense stalls at the opposing 20 yard line they can't kick a FG and walk away with points? That's what the big deal is. We have nothing on this new guy and not only are the expectations high coming in - He has to  be as good short range as Kai was but also better then he was at long range kicks I think based on no tape it's unrealistic.

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I'm fine with this as long as whoever they replace him with is good. Seems simple enough right?

 

I'm not.

With our luck, he'll get picked by Chip Kelly and will score two 60 yarders on last second attempts on us so the Eagles sweep us...

 

We should never, ever, ever, cut a kicker again.

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(Post moved from the "tweets" thread.) 

 

Got to confess, to me, this looks like a spectacularly Bad Move.  I mean, like, far worse than activating RG3's $16M option, for example.

 

If we're gonna be a grind-it-out football team (and granted, it's early, but it looks like we're good at it), then one of the things we're gonna need is somebody who can turn a trip into enemy territory into points, even if it's only 3 points.

 

Again, maybe it's just me, but I can't think of a move that made me go "WTF?" like this one, since firing Marty Schottenheimer after one, 8-8 season.

 


 

Oh, well.  We can (and already have) debated this subject to death and beyond, on here.

 

We'll know what the rest of the NFL thinks about what he's worth, in a few days or weeks.

 

(Which I'm sure will make one side or the other admit that they were wring, right?)  [:)]

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The writing is on the wall for our coverage units without Paul or Hayward. They suck. With Forbath's short kickoffs, disaster was looming.

As for why now, Hopkins was on a roster last week and now his salary won't be guaranteed if its a mistake.

As for the leak, it could just as easily be Hopkins or his agent.

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Not sure I can agree with this

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2014

Shows what the defenses average starting line of scrimmage drives were last year when Kai was kicking off.

Redskins average from the Defensive side was the 29.7 yard line, NFL average was the 27.63 yard line, difference of 2.07 yards. Now they were ranked 28th worst in the league in that stat but does that translate to wins/losses like an inaccurate kicker could?

Denver 24th

San Deigo 22nd

Steelers 21st

Reverse side of it

3rd Rams

5th Saints

7th 49ers

 

So three teams in the 20s with winning records and three teams at the top of the leader board with losing records makes it difficult to directly determine the high importance of 2 yards to me. I'm not saying it's not important, it is. I'm saying how important is it? Hard to say

If your team doesn't score many TD's like the Redskins don't and you also consider that with XP now really 33 yard FGs the need for accurate short range kickers is a must for every team out there. That to me for tAnd to me its more important then a kicker who can kick the ball out of the end zone every time. What good is 20 yard starting field poition if when your offense stalls at the opposing 20 yard line they can't kick a FG and walk away with points?

 

It's math that I don't remember how to do.

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