Brian Orakpo: Current most over hyped Redskin? Or as good as advertised?

[ZRagone]

 

Well you could make the argument that TW is only 1 bad test away from a year long suspension so why pay him?

 

This is actually a great point and something I had completely forgotten about.

It's probably something I'd leverage to try and keep his contract number down at the time of negotiation, attempting to perhaps not give him the largest contract of all LT's.

But again, the issue is a matter of degrees. Trent, ALREADY, is the 4th highest paid left tackle. He's already making $10 mil. It's hard to be able to justify that his play over this current contract doesn't warrant an extra $2 mil.

That's a lot different than Orakpo, currently the 17th highest paid OLB, and saying his play over his current contract warrants an extra $6.5 mil.

But absolutely...you'd need to figure in Trent's drug test into it. Sadly, that one's harder for me to judge than injury though. Injuries are somewhat of a fluke thing, but they are also a culminating thing on the body and is not something that a player can always DIRECTLY help. The drug thing is something DIRECTLY controllable by the player. So a lot of that would come into the one on one behind the scenes with Bruce and Trent and what trust there is on that...and we can't honestly answer that.

[98ORAKPO98]

 

Grr, I hate when I have a post typed up and then I accidentally reload the page.

 

First if you want to discuss let's discuss without your ridiculously adding on little snipes at the end of your post. I'm not sitting here going "And don't tell me the guy who hasn't been able to get more than 10 sacks in the past 4 years". Don't sit here in this thread making excuses CONSTANTLY for why stats don't tell the whole story with Orakpo and then flippantly and dismissively toss a random stat out there right off the bat...it's not condusive to an actual discussion.

 

Now, to your question...

 

Griffin is the only person on the team I'd clearly and without concern say that we should give more than $10 million to if he's living up to his potential by the time his next contract comes around.

 

The only other person on the team I'd consider saying that about would be Trent. Let me explain why.

 

First, I disagree with you in terms of importance. You put pass rusher as the next most important thing seeminly towards quarterback. I put LT. I feel that it's easier, through the use of other teammates and through scheme, to make up for average to above average pass rushing ability in your OLB than it is to make up for average to above average ability in your Left Tackle. I think our success last year, WITHOUT Rak, is indicative that it IS possible.

 

It's arguable as to which position is more valuable to a franchise between LT and pass rusher, (DE/OLB). I can also argue though that it is easier through scheme to cover up for a weaker LT than it is for a weaker pass rusher, just put the tight end or running back over there to help him chip or double team the guy he's trying to block, or slide protect that way. But if you don't have a dominant edge rusher, you're forced to blitz more often leaving your coverage guys vulnerable as opposed to only rushing 4 relying on your top edge rusher to put pressure on the QB without having to blitz too often.

 

Second, Trent does not have the injury history that Orakpo does. You can make every excuse for it that you want; fact of the matter is that Brian Orakpo has missed pretty much an entire season to injury and Williams hasn't. And, that Orakpo has injured the same area twice. That gives me pause when paying significant money.

 

Lots of players get injured and come back from them and go on to have productive careers while earning top dollar, Mario Williams is one example, he also had a pec tear. Thomas Davis for the Panthers suffered 3 ACL tears in the same knee yet is still one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Also, as another poster pointed out, Trent Williams got suspended for testing positive for mary jane. Not sure we should fork over a big contract for a guy that could potentially be due for a long suspension if caught again. (Me personally, I would pay both Rak and TW a nice salary to stick around, the are both dominant at their respective positions.)

 

Third, paying Trent Williams in the $10-$12 range (which at the moment would be the general range I'd feel comfortable going in) is not a large departure of what's already happening. From the site I'm looking at, Trent is already making around $10 mil a year (Source). Going from $10 to $12 would not be a significant system shock to our current financial structure. However, going from $3.5 Mil for Orakpo currently to $10 Mil WOULD be a significant system shock.

 

It would also be a system shock to pay RG3 a hefty salary when his time is due, but you pay impact players what they're worth to try and have a competitive football team.

 

Fourth, the situation with the contracts of the LTs and OLB's is different. At the VERY top, OLB's are making more than their LT counter parts. The top per year LT is making $12.8 mil while the top OLB is making $13.2. However, as you start dropping outside of the top 5 contracts the number skews massively.

 

Maybe because there are more top notch left tackles in the NFL than top notch pass rushing 3-4 OLB's? Regardless, Orakpo is a top 5 3-4 pass rushing OLB, so he should be paid accordingly.

 

LT's stay expensive. The 10th most expensive OLB is $8 mil compared to only $6 mil for OLB's.  The 15th highest paid LT is $6.5 Mil (Still $.5 more than the 10th OLB) while OLB is at $4 mil. The 20th highest paid LT? Still pulling down $5.3 Mil. The 20th highest paid OLB? $2.1 Mil

 

Once you get out of the TOP of the TOP, LT's are more expensive than OLBs. So the difference between a mid level LT contract ($7.2 Mil, Joe Staley, 12th highest paid LT) and a top end contract is in that $4 to 6 million range. The difference between a mid level OLB contract ($4.75 Mil, Jarret Johnson, 12th highest paid OLB) and a top end contract mil is in the $7-$9 million range

 

If I'm going to have to pay a mid level LT contract of $8 mil, going $3 million higher to give Trent $11 isn't a huge change. If I'm going to have to pay a mid level OLB $5 mil, giving Orakpo DOUBLE that is a pretty large jump.

 

TW and BO are both better than mid level players at their respective positions.

 

Even so, Trent definitely needs to show another year of healthy play, pro-bowl caliber play, and flashes of legitimate all pro ability to warrant it. But he'd be the only other person who I could warrant seeing close to that.

 

Robert, if he lives up to potential, is a clearly over $10 million guy

 

Trent is right around $10 million

 

Orakpo and Garcon are the only guys I'd say are worthy of that "Near $10 Mil" range.

 

Kerrigan and *MAYBE* Alfred is probably right under that, coming in around the $5-$7 range.

[Matugi]

The hyperbole in this thread is pretty astounding, on both sides.  Orakpo isn't the best OLB in the NFL, but he's up there.  On the other hand, Jackson is not a serviceable replacement for him and if it comes down to whether you pay Jackson or Orakpo you pay the latter ten times out of ten.  It's simple as that and I'm just completely dumbfounded by how undervalued Rak is by some fans.  He is unquestionably the best player on defense.  Someone above said Kerrigan is better against the run; I'd contend that is false.  Kerrigan REALLY struggled down the stretch this year, and he gets a pass because he was "injured" but Orakpo doesn't get a pass for the first half of the season when he was coming off an injury.  It's mind-boggling.

[Epochalypse]

I haven't read this entire thread but I think it would be helpful to look at this another way.

 

Is there another team out there who would be able to pay Orakpo more than 9 mil a year?

 

I mean if he wants to play for the Raiders or the Jags, sure, but what other team has the cap space to pay Orakpo 10+ mil a year?

 

I don't know off hand, and if I free up the time I may do the research myself, but my initial feeling is that no one is going to pay him that much more than 9 mil/yr just based on the current cap environment league-wide.

[98ORAKPO98]

I haven't read this entire thread but I think it would be helpful to look at this another way.

 

Is there another team out there who would be able to pay Orakpo more than 9 mil a year?

 

I mean if he wants to play for the Raiders or the Jags, sure, but what other team has the cap space to pay Orakpo 10+ mil a year?

 

I don't know off hand, and if I free up the time I may do the research myself, but my initial feeling is that no one is going to pay him that much more than 9 mil/yr just based on the current cap environment league-wide.

Considering Orakpo can play in either a 4-3 scheme or a 3-4 scheme, I think a team would be more than happy to pay him that amount, hopefully us.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/01/16/how-big-a-contract-should-brian-orakpo-get/

 

A deep dig into the numbers supports the idea that Orakpo should be highly pursued. Only five players had more than his 11 sacks this past season, and only two had significantly more (the Colts’ Robert Mathis with 18 and the Bills’ Mario Williams with 14. The other three had 12). And all those players had at least 457 pass-rush snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, while Orakpo, rushing 78% of the time, had 363.

Looking beyond sacks alone, PFF had Orakpo tied with John Abraham for fifth in pass-rushing productivity, behind Buffalo’s Jerry Hughes, Baltimore’s Elvis Dumervil and the Chiefs’ Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. PFF counted 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits and 29 hurries for 51 total quarterback pressures last season.

Sorting the data differently, FootballOutsiders.com and AdvancedNFLStats.com also put Orakpo among the top edge-rushing linebackers.

PAY THE MAN!!!

[NoCalMike]

What pass rushers are available on the FA market, what do you think they will cost and do you think they can match Orakpo's stats?

[Epochalypse]

Considering Orakpo can play in either a 4-3 scheme or a 3-4 scheme, I think a team would be more than happy to pay him that amount, hopefully us.

 

....PAY THE MAN!!!

Again, I'm asking which teams out there have the cap room and the need for a DE/OLB that would force us to pay more than that for Orakpo.

 

I'm willing to pay him to stay with the team, so long as we aren't bidding against ourselves. 

[skinny21]

LT's stay expensive. The 10th most expensive OLB is $8 mil compared to only $6 mil for OLB's. The 15th highest paid LT is $6.5 Mil (Still $.5 more than the 10th OLB) while OLB is at $4 mil. The 20th highest paid LT? Still pulling down $5.3 Mil. The 20th highest paid OLB? $2.1 Mil

That's a pretty good argument, though I'm not sure 20 teams are running a 3-4, and I suspect teams typically have one highly paid OLB and then the 'other guy' - similar to the difference between LTs and RTs. Overall though, point taken.

[Fan since a Fetus]

I mean if he wants to play for the Raiders or the Jags, sure, but what other team has the cap space to pay Orakpo 10+ mil a year?

Possibly Green Bay. Pretty sure they have a similar cap situation as the Skins and they really need someone on the other side of Matthews.

[Tatankgough]

Then let's give him 13, because the difference between 11 and 13 isn't that big of a deal!

 

At some point you have to draw a line in the sand, or else it's always able to be "just a little bit more. 9 is my end line because my PREFERED payment to Orakpo is $7 mil. As such, I'm willing to go up to $2 mil in "overpayment", or in other words a solid backup / fill in starter players salary. What I'm NOT willing to do is go up to $4 mil in overpayment", or in other words a solid to good starters salary.

 

Essentially...$7 mil would be a reasonable team friendly contract and would be my preference. $8 mil would be a fair contract to both sides imho. $9 mil would be over payment but not to a gross amount.

 

If the team offered less than $7 mil I'd expect the player to walk away. If the player wants more than $9 mil I'd expect the team to walk away.

 

I've always felt we should keep Orakpo, since reading the stats on his sack percentage I would say definitely we need to keep him. If we get a certified NT that can drive the pocket so we can free up Steve Baker and Barry Cofield to play DE that would be an awesome front. We retain Perry Riley and go after Yarwin Smallwood in the draft along with Kerrigan on the other side to fill out our front 7.

[RandyHolt]

One of the biggest decisions in shaping our team is what to do with Rak.

 

That circles back to haslett

 

Haslett seems very bad in the eyes of fans. If Allen gives Haslett Rak and a bunch of other studs, aren't you concerned that Haslett is so bad, it won't significantly help the D?

 

I like Rak but not using a blank check. While I don't know our cap room WRT to other needs I am intrigued at hearing alternatives to Rak. Say he wants 10M.  Who could we get instead to fill other positions.

 

Give Haslett a bunch of blue collar guys and have him scheme it up like in 2012, or do like Williams Lynn and Lewis did, and bend dont break and maybe dominate some stats yet force no turnovers and not pressure QBs.

 

What to do with Rak is going to shape our team as much as any FA could. Say we pass on Rak, but it lets us land Decker. That is a huge decision. If the D can't be fixed with Haslett here, why throw more money at the problem?

[DC9]

man, case F'ing closed! 

 

very much appreciated 98 ... awesome stuff. I mean, hes right in their with "elite" players. 

 

Not so fast my friend...

 

How many of those were because Orakpo got loose or made a move to beat a linemen and how many were against QBs that hold onto the ball to long?

 

I know you play who is in front of you and everyone else gets stats like that.  But that's been my problem with him throughout the years.

 

He played much better down the stretch this season prior to another injury though.

[Jacoby6644]

Plain and simple: if you are gonna play a 3-4 defense you need 2 good OLBs. Besides a solid NT they are the most important positions in a 3-4. If Rak isn't gonna be the guy you resign, then you either go with what is on the roster or sign an FA . You pay premiums for pass rushers so you may have a better chance at getting Rak cheaper. I don't think you can draft one with the second round pick since there are so many other holes.

[757SeanTaylor21]

just feel bad that even rak being known as a pass rusher could very well be in the same scheme that's been holding him back for ANOTHER YEAR.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

But if you let Rak walk, then pass rushing OLB becomes an area of desperate need, that's why we can't allow that to happen all mighty KingGibbs.

 

Jenkins will have a year of learning under his belt so maybe not. 

 

Hail. 

[1972FAN]

I am on the side that Orakpo is definitely over hyped Redskins on the roster...

Some think that, when healthy, Orakpo can be some sort of Demarcus Ware type of player but I just dont see it when I watch the games. Definitely Orakpo is an above average / great at rushing the QB but everything else is somewhat average. Also for a guy that tallies up alot of QB pressures, I just dont see his pressure impacting the play much. I have many more memories of Orakpo "pressuring" the QB to only to have the QB get away for a big play then having the QB being forced into an error as result of the pressure.

This is just from my untrained eye so I might be completely off base.

I do know this... Orakpo should NOT be paid like he is top 5 pass rusher in the league.

I with you, He's good not great and He's not worth top 5 money.

[KDawg]

If we acquire a nose (and if Baker isn't that guy) our OLBs will have a much easier job. You can't pin any of our OLBs frustrations on getting to the quarterback JUST on them. Do they share some blame? Sure. Getting held? Get off of it. But without an interior push quarterbacks can easily step up into the pocket. So when they do get a sack it usually IS because the QB held the ball too long, because it's one of the only ways they can. A few times, though, Haslett schemed it up pretty well.

 

As far as saying with Haslett we'll never have a good defense or that he "sucks", people are so far off the mark. Haslett doesn't "suck". Keep in mind, I don't think he should have ever been hired here, but saying he sucks is beyond overboard. The guy knows the game. Stopping the run is obviously a priority to him, and in that vein, it costs us some pass rushing opportunities from our best rushers. I don't like that strategy, but he probably has a reason for it. And who knows what Shanahan's involvement was.

 

I don't want Haslett back either, but let's stop with the hyperbole that he "sucks". He certainly doesn't as far as his knowledge of the game goes. His philosophy is a tough fit for us currently. But again, what role did Shanahan play in that? Hopefully a BIG one, if Haslett stays on.

[bedlamVR]

On 98 only getting sacks because the QB helf the ball too long ; I think the argument that the QB held the ball too long can be made in 90% of the occasions a QB gets sacked ... Brunell for us didn't take too many sacks but he had a really quick delivery motion and if nothing was there on his 1/2nd read then he would throw the ball away .. I think back to the Green Bay and the Philly game and 98 and 91 were causing havock in pass protection and the offenses would counter by going to the quick game and packaged plays and multiple hot reads etc .. but becasue we were not able to stop them doing that the defense appeared all over bad

 

On Hasselet.. The offensive co-ordinator being able to take 98 and 91 out of the game so relativily easily,  is my issue with Hasslet - is he can scheme a good game, but almost needs the offensive co-ordinator on the other team to play along with him, as soon as there is an adjustment then he kind of is easy to be lead by the nose ... I would have liked to see a change at DC and I am comming to the rather depressing conclusion that is going to not happen, so I am finding ways to spin this into a possitive and as KDawg said Hasslet is not absolute trash - his schemes in some instances are good, but his decision making - not so good and that may have been hampered by Mike Shanahan or it may be a general issue . The one good thing I can see in keeping Haz is familiarity - who better to devise a scheme that works than someone who really knows the players.... (it could be straws I am clutching at here) also those clammouring for Phillips need to rememeber his defenses were very much the feast famine type systems they looked awsome rushing the passer but would let the opponents put up 44 points ... not sure all change is good change ...

 

Finally back on thread: I think Orakpo and I have said throughout the year we should resign him, is the best player we have on defense ... I like him opposite Kerrigan and I would love for him to be behind Colefield (and have Colefield at end - becasue that is a major weakness on the team as I think we are going to move on from both Bowen and Carriker) with a better secondary and ILB support that would alow us to cover without giving up the pass rush ... but whatever the scheme and its limitations the best player to play OLB or that pass rushing specialist is 98 - Jackson is nice as a back up but doen't bring the same heat .

[mistertim]

Plain and simple: if you are gonna play a 3-4 defense you need 2 good OLBs. Besides a solid NT they are the most important positions in a 3-4. If Rak isn't gonna be the guy you resign, then you either go with what is on the roster or sign an FA . You pay premiums for pass rushers so you may have a better chance at getting Rak cheaper. I don't think you can draft one with the second round pick since there are so many other holes.

I really think NT is at least as important as the OLBs in a 3-4. It all starts in the middle. If you have a nose that can create havoc and collapse the pocket from the middle then that makes the job of the OLB that much easier. We REALLY need to get a top notch NT. I love Cofield and he is a hell of a player but I think he is a better fit at DE in a 3-4 than NT.

[ZRagone]

 

I don't want Haslett back either, but let's stop with the hyperbole that he "sucks". He certainly doesn't as far as his knowledge of the game goes. His philosophy is a tough fit for us currently. But again, what role did Shanahan play in that? Hopefully a BIG one, if Haslett stays on.

Haslett definitely knows the game. And compared to joe schlub on the street he's absolutely a better DC. But within the league, while "Sucks" may be harsh it's reasonable to say he's rather poor. Look at his history over the past 10 years as a DC or HC. His defenses have been average at best and abysmal more often then not. This included a number of times when Shanahan was no where near him. I don't doubt his knowledge of the game, but I do doubt his ability to PRODUCE. 

[KDawg]

 

Haslett definitely knows the game. And compared to joe schlub on the street he's absolutely a better DC. But within the league, while "Sucks" may be harsh it's reasonable to say he's rather poor. Look at his history over the past 10 years as a DC or HC. His defenses have been average at best and abysmal more often then not. This included a number of times when Shanahan was no where near him. I don't doubt his knowledge of the game, but I do doubt his ability to PRODUCE. 

 

As you should know, I've said the same thing. For years.

 

Using a rational argument, by laying out things you notice and why it doesn't fit us is one thing. Throwing around words like he "sucks" is a great way to have any point you make fall on deaf ears.

[ZRagone]

98O98….I understand it’s arguable as to which position is more valuable between pass rusher and LT. I acknowledged that in my post when the first thing I said was “I disagree with you in terms of importance”. I understand COMPLETELY that you put a greater value on pass rusher. I do not. I understand you feel that it’s easier to scheme around an average LT. I disagree and think it’s easier to scheme around an average pass rusher. This is simply a difference of opinion, one I acknowledged. You restating what I already acknowledged isn’t changing my view on things.

As to the injury thing, yes people CAN come back fine. But it’s a risk factor. Do all risk factors turn into actual problems? No, no it does not. But they’re still part of the picture. I had forgot about Trent’s drug violation and when the other poster reminded me of it I acknowledged it and it’s effect on my thinking.

It would be a system shock to pay RG3 probably close to $10 million more than he’s already making, or more. Absolutely. However, I’m more willing to suffer that system shock for a Franchise QB than I am for ANY OTHER POSITION. What you don’t seem to understand is that decision making is a “risk/reward” type of judgment. It’s not just about whether or not there’s system shock, or injury risk, or cost but it’s rather weighing those things against the realities of the NFL AND the potential reward for taking the action. I’m willing to take significant system shock to sign a Franchise QB because of the value and importance of the position and the realities of the NFL landscape…I’m not willing to take a similar level of leeway with a LT or a Pass Rusher.

You may be right that there’s more good tackles then there are pass rushers. It’s an interesting thought, but not a compelling one to me. To each their own. I agree both are TW and BO are better than mid level players at their positions. However, I was pointing out the difference in cost for a player that’s a step down or two in caliber. Going down or two a caliber in LT is only going to save you maybe $4 million. Going down or two a caliber in pass rushing OLB’s will save you almost double that.

I don’t have any intention or expectation that I can change your mind. If you think that’s what I was doing you’re sadly mistaken. You’re absolutely set in how you’re thinking, and I have no problem with that nor am I confused as to your thought process. However, what I was attempting to do is explain to you MY reasoning. I’ve been reading you for more than a year, NOTHING you’re now saying is substantially or significantly different than what you’ve been saying and it’s not going to be magically changing my mind either.

Like you, I’d like to pay Orakpo and Williams a nice salary to stick around. Our difference is that you put a greater importance on Orakpo than Williams, and the “nice salary” you think is higher than what I’d go.

 

As you should know, I've said the same thing. For years.

 

Using a rational argument, by laying out things you notice and why it doesn't fit us is one thing. Throwing around words like he "sucks" is a great way to have any point you make fall on deaf ears.

 

I get your point there, and know you've not exactly been a Haslett fan. I just guess I didn't have an issue as much with the "sucks" stuff as I saw it as obvious hyperbole and more relative to the NFL in general and not in some universal football notion. Then again, I can understand your point entirely...I had the same annoyance with people claiming that RG3 is stupid or not a professional QB or such during the season; obvious hyperbole that was obviously dumb. It can be grating, so I get that.

[skinny21]

I'm seeing two sides to the coin here. On one hand, Orakpo isn't asked to rush the passer as often (and our scheme ain't likely to change with Haslett likely coming back) and therefore his pass rushing skills are (perhaps) not quite as important to us as to another 3-4 team.

On the flip side, his sack % matches up with other 'elite' OLB's and therefore he is extremely important to us even if he isn't asked to rush as often as other OLBs. On top of that, I think there is a strong likelihood that we have another DC in 2015, and wouldn't we want that new DC to have a chance to use a player of Orakpo's abilities?

I suppose I'd pay him as the 6th-8th best OLB and hopefully call it a day. Look to the draft (and our young guys returning from injury) to try fill most of our holes, FA to find a few more good players and see where we stand next year.

[RWJ]

We can do better for paying less for LB Jason Worilds of the Steelers. I would take him over Orakpo as I THINK he would cost less and produce just as well as Rak. He has been injured a lot less than Rak and is younger as well. I like Rak but he will cost more and we have a lot of other holes to fill. JMO.

[Matugi]

Jenkins will have a year of learning under his belt so maybe not. 

 

Hail. 

Jenkins is also an ultra-raw fifth rounder that has so far shown flashes in preseason but outside of that has done nothing to deserve cracking the top 3 OLBs nonetheless take over for Orakpo.