Brian Orakpo: Current most over hyped Redskin? Or as good as advertised?

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Bruce needs to give Orakpo his money. 5 year 55 mill with 25+ mill guaranteed.

Pay dis man his money. /Teddy KGB accent

No way do we give Orakpo that kind of deal. We'll franchise him before that.

[mistertim]

I don't think we've seen everything Rak has to offer.  His ceiling is climbing, he's battled injuries and an alleged head coach interference issue.  Let's see what he does this year.  Incentivise his contract, bust out a healthy bonus, and keep him at around 25M guaranteed. 

 

If he's able to put up 15+ sacks, then you bust out the big money.

Problem is, we've been saying and/or hearing this for 5 years now. "If he takes the next step", "he has a ton of potential", "his ceiling is huge". When is it going to happen? We're still waiting for him to take that leap from very good into elite.

[Thekyle1591]

Problem is, we've been saying and/or hearing this for 5 years now. "If he takes the next step", "he has a ton of potential", "his ceiling is huge". When is it going to happen? We're still waiting for him to take that leap from very good into elite.

You measure his success based on sacks, which is totally dumb. You can't replace someone who was the best all around 3-4 OLB in the NFL last year.

[Burgold]

Orakpo is such a hard one to figure out.  On the plus side, he is a high character guy, a hard worker, he's produced, he's gotten better in run defense and somewhat better in coverage.  On the other hand, he doesn't seem to have that knack to come up big in big games, and he seems to have an injury history at this point.

 

I want to keep him.  I really feel that he is a very good player and we'll regret his loss.  The other question is that it seems scheme may be holding him back and we're probably keeping the same scheme.

[KDawg]

Well, it remains to be seen, but Haslett said he wanted to get rid of the OLBs contain responsibilities. If that happens it gives our OLBs the opportunity to go inside or out, referred to as a two-way go. That's not the same scheme. It's quite different, especially as it means the safeties would be playing the force role more often.

[DaGoonie55]

Problem is, we've been saying and/or hearing this for 5 years now. "If he takes the next step", "he has a ton of potential", "his ceiling is huge". When is it going to happen? We're still waiting for him to take that leap from very good into elite.

 

Agreed.  My thought is that elite players emerge without supporting casts, and perhaps Rak isn't elite.  But hes a lot better than what is available to us.  I think we should lock him up but not sell the farm to do so.

 

Good point.

[mistertim]

You measure his success based on sacks, which is totally dumb. You can't replace someone who was the best all around 3-4 OLB in the NFL last year.

I would definitely agree, you can't replace the best all around 3-4 OLB in the NFL. It would be amazing if we had that, but we don't. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any NFL GM or coach who would say Orakpo is the best 3-4 OLB in the NFL. And true, you can't measure success based SOLELY on sacks, but sacks are certainly a big part of it. Hurries are nice because it can cause the QB to make a mistake and lead to an incomplete pass, interception, whatever. But a sack is always a loss of down and almost always yardage. Like it or not, when you're talking about pass rushers, sacks are generally the most visible and heavily weighted stat when it comes to judging them.

[MartinC]

Well, it remains to be seen, but Haslett said he wanted to get rid of the OLBs contain responsibilities. If that happens it gives our OLBs the opportunity to go inside or out, referred to as a two-way go. That's not the same scheme. It's quite different, especially as it means the safeties would be playing the force role more often.

 

I hope we do change the scheme in this way - but I'd feel a lot better about it once we have upgraded the safety position. Right now I would not really want to expand the role of the current safeties we have on our roster (although Thomas is a bit of an unknown at SS and I have read the staff are high on him).

[KDawg]

I would definitely agree, you can't replace the best all around 3-4 OLB in the NFL. It would be amazing if we had that, but we don't. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any NFL GM or coach who would say Orakpo is the best 3-4 OLB in the NFL. And true, you can't measure success based SOLELY on sacks, but sacks are certainly a big part of it. Hurries are nice because it can cause the QB to make a mistake and lead to an incomplete pass, interception, whatever. But a sack is always a loss of down and almost always yardage. Like it or not, when you're talking about pass rushers, sacks are generally the most visible and heavily weighted stat when it comes to judging them.

None of those reasons make it the best or most accurate measure...

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Well, it remains to be seen, but Haslett said he wanted to get rid of the OLBs contain responsibilities. If that happens it gives our OLBs the opportunity to go inside or out, referred to as a two-way go. That's not the same scheme. It's quite different, especially as it means the safeties would be playing the force role more often.

 

This would turn our defense into something a bit more like the Steelers/Ravens D right?  The Steelers often run a Quarters D with the safeties closer to the box.  Troy and Clark were the force guys for them.

 

I feel like you need more quick/aggressive safeties.  Meriweather's aggressiveness should be good in that role.

[Est.1974]

Get him signed up for 5 years & watch him Rak up Terrell Suggs type numbers.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

You know it will. And, while I won't personally do it, it should be*

* denotes a stance in which I mean he gets a very reasonable dollar amount elsewhere. If someone breaks the bank on him and we can't afford him, it's kind of a pointless bump, as we couldn't really afford to pay him the extremely large chunk of change that he desired. See Bailey, Champ^

^ Bailey, Champ: His wife wanted him out. He was leaving. We didn't get fleeced in a trade, we got good pieces for a guy we were going to lose anyways, an entirely different case thanLandry, LaRon#

# Landry, LaRon: Hasn't done much since he left.

Don't you think it all gets a tad tawdry in respect of 'it should be?'

By association you'll then have folk, if we re-signed and upped him to 8 figures, bumping if he doesn't produce like it was a contract year and screaming 'told you we should of let him walk!' Etc.

I appreciate that's our want and the nature of the message board beast, but it all gets rather tedious.

Hail.

[Pedro]

70  40 post pages based pretty much solely on what a few people's expectations of Orakpo's contract demands would be and there's a call for no more posts after he signs (wherever that may be).

 

LMAO.  We have more than one must have the last word poster on ES, this thread (or subject) will be talked about for years to come.

[Zazzaro703]

Double digit sack OLB/DEs in their prime get more than $7M a year - I can see no way Orakpo would sign that kind of deal, he will get more than that in free agency. Something around $9M a year average is more realistic and I suspect he will end up closer to $10M. My gut feeling is that's a bit more than Orakpo is worth but it's the market price and not a stupid number.

It's the average over the first 3 years of any deal including guarantee money and bonus we need to look at when we start talking about what the real average is.

This is how i feel. I'd like to sign him for 8 million but it's most likely not possible. It's too bad there is nothing out there to replace him with because 11 million a year just doesnt seem worth it but again, what would we replace him with. Gotta give him the money.

[markmills67]

If you were to put Lionel Messi in my Bolton Wanderers football team, he would struggle to score 8 goals a season due to the rest of the team being subpar, the point I'm making is if you pay Orakpo $11m plus a year the Skins D will still be S--t because we didn't spend enough on the rest of the D.

[KDawg]

Don't you think it all gets a tad tawdry in respect of 'it should be?'

By association you'll then have folk, if we re-signed and upped him to 8 figures, bumping if he doesn't produce like it was a contract year and screaming 'told you we should of let him walk!' Etc.

I appreciate that's our want and the nature of the message board beast, but it all gets rather tedious.

Hail.

 

Doesn't make a difference. This isn't a semi debated topic, it's pretty heated on more than one issue.

 

1) Rak overrated vs. Worthy of the hype debate

2) Rak worth signing to a huge contract?

3) Rak or Kerrigan, who's better?

4) Jackson or Rak?

and 5) [this one is JUST for you GHH] is Brandon Jenkins capable of carrying Orakpo's jockstrap?

 

(hahah sorry brother, couldn't resist. You know how it is).

 

This one is going to be talked about a lot. Whether he busts or booms here or in another city, as it should be... In a constructive manner. The inevitable, "TOLD YOU HE SUX0rS!11!!!!!" and "HE'S A GOD!" posts can be ignored and people that actually want to have a conversation can do so while ignoring the stupidity

[98ORAKPO98]

I would definitely agree, you can't replace the best all around 3-4 OLB in the NFL. It would be amazing if we had that, but we don't. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any NFL GM or coach who would say Orakpo is the best 3-4 OLB in the NFL. And true, you can't measure success based SOLELY on sacks, but sacks are certainly a big part of it. Hurries are nice because it can cause the QB to make a mistake and lead to an incomplete pass, interception, whatever. But a sack is always a loss of down and almost always yardage. Like it or not, when you're talking about pass rushers, sacks are generally the most visible and heavily weighted stat when it comes to judging them.

I guess you turn a blind eye to the MULTIPLE posts pointing out Orakpo's sack per rush stat. IF HE WAS ALLOWED TO RUSH THE PASSER MORE OFTEN LIKE OTHER TOP PASS RUSHERS, HE WOULD GET MORE SACKS. Comprende? He's every bit as good as any pass rushing 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

[skinny21]

Well, it remains to be seen, but Haslett said he wanted to get rid of the OLBs contain responsibilities. If that happens it gives our OLBs the opportunity to go inside or out, referred to as a two-way go. That's not the same scheme. It's quite different, especially as it means the safeties would be playing the force role more often.

Tangent, but DG posted the missed tackles by our safeties... we'd better get better on the back end if we're going to ask them to tackle more.

[Pedro]

When Peyton did win a SB it was the year his D came good when it counted.  Anyone think Brees is winning another SB now he's earning the big money?

 

The talk about paying too much to one guy to the detriment of the 'team' is a valid one, though I think we should be looking at the QB position not OLB.  The top QBs (as I expect Griffin to be when he resigns) get around the $20m mark which means for all the teams with a franchise QB you're down 10M that the QB has to be able to more than cover for.

 

IMO Griffin should be doing all the extra curricular endorsement deals to up his income, so when he resigns he can do it for 10m per year and actually have an OL and a D.

 

He won't be signing for 10m per so we better get a good team before the $20m per year starts to impact on us (it will be like the 18M cap penalty every year).

[pjfootballer]

If you were to put Lionel Messi in my Bolton Wanderers football team, he would struggle to score 8 goals a season due to the rest of the team being subpar, the point I'm making is if you pay Orakpo $11m plus a year the Skins D will still be S--t because we didn't spend enough on the rest of the D.

Can we at least do a couple things first, like actually re-sign the guy and then get through the draft and free agency? Thank you. See you in May.

[VRIEL1]

The cost is all subjective. It's not about stats: sacks, INT's, batted balls, tackles, etc. etc. It's going to be about supply and demand.

 

Is there someone on the market now as good or better then Orakpo? Can we get them? otherwise the market is going to set Orakpo's price. If we don't pay someone else will.

 

Trust me, I don't think he's worth anymore then 5 mill a year but someone who needs his skills will try to out pay for him if they want and need him. Don't get me wrong.... when Orakpo is healthy he can be a beast. But he had two good years, then two years of injuries, and last year where he did well enough to fill in at the Pro Bowl for Ahmad Brooks.

 

The problem is if the team tags him then he will get paid about 11 mill for the year. In the perfect world he signs a 5 mill a year deal with heavy incentives to make it to 8-11 mill. Make him work for his $$$. If he's as good as everyone says he will have no problem making 11 mill with the incentives add... right?

[SkinsTillIDie]

I guess you turn a blind eye to the MULTIPLE posts pointing out Orakpo's sack per rush stat. IF HE WAS ALLOWED TO RUSH THE PASSER MORE OFTEN LIKE OTHER TOP PASS RUSHERS, HE WOULD GET MORE SACKS. Comprende? He's every bit as good as any pass rushing 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

 

It's something that strangely many fail to understand. When you also consider that the average sack in the NFL comes after 3.8 seconds, you could make the argument that better players around any pass rusher -- better pass coverage -- would yield more productivity (statistically) from a pass-rush.

 

 

Each year we see some new stat that he's very good at.  But the on the field performance just isn't there.

 

If we gave him a 5 year $50 mil deal this fanbase has the right to flip out.  Do you think he is worth 10 mil over the next 5 if we get status quo of what he's brought to the table so far?  "Rak-ing" up sacks against lesser opponents and backup QBs?

 

This is why we have advanced stats: to analyze performance when all we have is a (very limited) eye test to go by. We don't watch every pass rusher across the league; we watch, for the most part, TV footage of games without anywhere near full knowledge of what exactly we're running and what each player's greater responsibility is. And we see Orakpo far more than the others -- it's classic 'grass is greener' syndrome.

 

So when stats emerge that show that, hey, Brian Orakpo is just as an effective pass-rusher as Clay Matthews and Aldon Smith, this is valuable information. Because from our perspective, we consider Matthews and Smith legitimately elite players. Even though Aldon Smith only recorded stats in 5 games last year, and Clay Matthews only recorded a full sack in 6 (and only recorded one multi-sack game last year). Yet we perceive these players to be regular game-changers, and not Orakpo, even though Orakpo is sandwiched between Smith and Matthews in sacks per rush and has more QB knockdowns.

 

I would say, yes, 5 years for $50 million would be a more than acceptable deal. Why? Because in a year or 2 from now, the next tier of young pass-rushers will hit the market when the salary cap is much higher. They'll be getting paid $12, $13, $14 million a year (the Robert Quinns and Aldon Smiths and Von Millers). Orakpo will then be getting paid to be the "very good" pass rusher you think he is, but not elite.

[Est.1974]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/02/21/bruce-allen-redskins-havent-decided-if-theyll-use-franchise-tag-on-brian-orakpo/

INDIANAPOLIS –Redskins general manager Bruce Allen said that he and team officials haven’t decided on whether they will use the franchise tag to retain outside linebacker Brian Orakpo if they can’t reach a long-term deal by the start of free agency.

Orakpo, the team’s top pass-rusher, will become an unrestricted free agent next month. He has expressed a desire to return to the team that selected him 13th overall in 2009. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett said last month that re-signing the three-time Pro Bowl linebacker ranks among the team’s priorities.

By using the franchise tag on Orakpo, the Redskins would ensure that they retain his services. But doing so would also mean they would have to pay him around $10.9 million, depending on what franchise tag figure the league settles on for the outside linebacker position.

Allen said that he will meet with Orakpo’s agent, Ben Dogra, while in Indianapolis at the NFL Scouting Combine.

“I’m going to have some more conversations with his representative here, and we’ll see where it goes,” Allen said. “We really haven’t gotten into those types of specifics yet. Really. His agent is supposed to have some ideas on what he would like to propose to us today or tomorrow.”

Allen did reiterate the team’s desire to re-sign Orakpo but also pointed out that the Redskins have many needs to fill, with 21 players up for free agency.

“We like Brian. There’s no doubt we like Brian, as well as a number of other players,” Allen said. “If we were just one player short, that’d be an easy question. But we have several players that we’re looking to fill.”

[SkinsTillIDie]

And on the subject of Ryan Kerrigan, at what point do we hold him to the same standard as Orakpo?

 

Orakpo was the 13th pick in the draft, Kerrigan was the 16th. Yet we expect Orakpo to be a DeMarcus Ware (in his prime) level elite pass-rusher, while we seem ready to accept 'good' performance from Kerrigan.

 

Orakpo, despite the extra attention and playing against far better pass-protectors, succeeded in sacking the QB once every 37.5 pass rushers. Kerrigan? Once every 52.2 pass rushes. Which puts him at a Ahmad Brooks, Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs level, but not remotely close to a Brian Orakpo level. Entering his 4th year, why don't we expect him to consistently take over games like we do Orakpo? Afterall, Orakpo's only played 16 games more than Kerrigan.

[Koolblue13]

I guess the main questions are 1- is there more value in having the money to sign a DE and 2- what's the performance difference if its RJax and a better DE next to each other.

If you can get the same performance from the later and still spend less, then you have to let him walk.

If you can't replace what he's bringing and it is important, you have to pay him.

He is absolutely worth more than the $8 mil people are throwing out there. I think it comes down to the other personnel already on the roster.

Id also like to add, Orakpo and Kerrigan play differt positions and comparing them doesn't make sense, unless people are suggesting replacing Orakpo with Kerrigan and I don't think I've seen that mentioned. I don't like seeing people putting either down. They're both very good, young players.