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  1. SkinsTillIDie

    2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

    Agree with you completely. With Bruce in save-his-job mode, an extra 2019 3rd, 5th, and 5th, and the extra draft capital from the Sua trade, I imagine we'll end up picking at #13 and #30something. Could very likely move up from our spot in the 4th as well
  2. A team full of players playing for a contract in the ultimate team sport -- what could go wrong?
  3. Considering Bruce gets fired if we can't stop the run this year, no, he's not putting all of his eggs in the Phil Taylor basket.
  4. For sure. I think guards have long been the most undervalued position in the game, and that could be changing. With next year's 4 extra conditional picks essentially in tow, I think we also are likely to trade our given 3rd or 4th round 2019 picks to move up in this draft. Either for the RB we're targeting or LG or both. Think this is all the more likely given the urgency this organization clearly has to win now (which, to me, makes their free agency patience all the more impressive, especially as they're hyper-aware of fan discontentment)
  5. Should be noted, picking at 106: Only 4 guards were selected before that pick in 2017 4 in 2016 6 in 2015 8 in 2014 7 in 2013 9 in 2012 The league has been trending to picking guards later in the draft. At #106, we should be able to add one of the 4th-6th best guard prospects. We can also use our extra 5th to move up, or we can hedge our bets and pick at #106 and #142/163. All signs point to adding an interior defensive lineman, running back, and left guard in April
  6. Using the Eagles again as a model of comparison, this is the defensive front they trotted out last year, snap counts and percentage of total defensive snaps. INTERIOR Fletcher Cox -- 607 (58.93%) Timmy Jernigan -- 493 (47.86%) Beau Allen -- 423 (41.07%) Destiny Vaeao -- 231 (22.43%) Elijah Qualls -- 104 (10.10%) Justin Hamilton -- 44 (4.27%) EDGE Brandon Graham -- 663 (64.37%) Vinny Curry -- 576 (55.92%) Chris Long -- 496 (48.16%) Derek Barnett -- 424 (41.17%) Steven Means -- 52 (5.15%) It should be noted that, for how good the Eagles line was, Brandon Graham led the team with 9.5 sacks, then Cox with 5.5, then Long with 5.0, Barnett, 5.0, Curry 3.0, Jernigan, 2.5. They weren't a team that recorded a lot of sacks. In constructing our competing line, a comparison by offseason's end might look something like this: INTERIOR Fletcher Cox -- Jonathan Allen Timmy Jernigan -- Johnathan Hankins / Victor Vea / Da'ron Payne Beau Allen -- Stacy McGee (6'2, 333 vs 6'3, 341) Destiny Vaeao -- Matt Ioannidis (6'4, 291 vs 6'3, 308) Qualls / Hamilton flotsam -- McClain / Hood / Lanier flotsam EDGE Brandon Graham -- Ryan Kerrigan Vinny Curry -- Preston Smith Chris Long -- Pernell McPhee / other FA signing Derek Barnett -- Ryan Anderson Meanwhile, the Eagles lost 26 year old Beau Allen and 29 year old Vinny Curry and gained 34 year old Haloti Ngata and 32 year old Michael Bennett. Obviously, Fletcher Cox is a defensive MVP caliber player, and he makes that line what it is. But I would argue that we have better edge starters, and Ioannidis and McGee make for stronger #3 and #4 interior linemen. Anthony Lanier recorded 5 sacks last year, which would've been tied for 3rd highest overall on the Eagles. He provides a compelling interior X factor on obvious passing downs. Health will obviously be a crucial factor in the success of our front, as it is for any team's. The Eagles don't make the superbowl if Fletcher Cox goes down in week 5. And our line's performance would've looked a lot different if we got 600 healthy snaps from Allen instead of 159. Ioannidis looked like a genuine difference maker before he broke his hand. We're missing a dominant run stuffer, the #2 interior lineman. And we're missing pass rushing depth. We need to sign someone like McPhee, whose signing I'm sure would be widely under appreciated. He would be our under-the-radar Chris Long signing. Ryan Anderson is the big X-factor for me. He compares favorably with Terrell Suggs, both athletically and with a similar personality makeup. Both didn't show well at the combine -- Suggs (6'3, 262) ran a 4.8, only did 19 reps on the bench, and his 32" arms scared off teams -- while Anderson (6'2, 253) ran a 4.78, didn't do the bench, with 31.5" arms. But they're both relentless, high-motor, intensely passionate, disciplined players, considered to be alpha-dogs among alpha-dogs. Maylock: "Ryan Anderson is an explosive edge rusher. ... He sets a physical edge. He converts speed to power better than any edge rusher in this draft. ... He's a leverage player. He gets underneath you and knocks your jock on the ground. I like him in the run game. I like his energy in the pass game and he's an all-day sucker. Really good football player." By several accounts, Ryan Anderson is re-shaping his body this offseason. I think there's reason to be optimistic that he can take a Year 2 leap in a similar fashion as Fuller and Ioannidis did last year. Allen, too. If that happens and we add 2 key players -- and stay healthy -- our front could be among the better ones in the league.
  7. Wow - dude, I'm the same guy who argued for both signing Hankins and drafting Vea / Payne. I'm the guy who posted that a team's organizational M.O. should be a pursuit of a top-5 defensive and offensive line with a top-10 QB, and should invest the most cap space and highest draft picks in those areas. (And therefore very strongly disbelieve in the "best player available" drafting philosophy). I'm far from happy with the defensive line's performance, and our run game defense as a whole. My point was that the front office didn't ignore the issue last year but tried (and mostly failed), adding three interior defensive linemen. We used our 1st round pick [who IS an interior lineman -- Jonathan Allen (6'3, 286 at combine) was drafted to serve a similar role as Fletcher Cox (6'4, 298 at combine)] and signed two mid-tier free agents at the behest of our coaching staff. You blame Bruce Allen entirely, that's fine. My point is that the coaching staff preferred two linemen vs one higher priced one and that Tomsula didn't want a traditional nose. McCloughan ranked McGee high on his free agent board, as he did with Swearinger. One worked out well, the other didn't. Again, you want to place all the blame on Allen, fine. We both agree that the run defense was putrid and needs to the offseason's #1 priority. I'm well aware we allowed more rushing yards (2146) than any team in the league last year. And allowed 4.5 yards per rush (29th) and 105 first downs (27th). Meanwhile, the Eagles allowed only 3.8 yards per rush. 1267 yards. Teams only attempted to run on them 337 times and only secured 62 first downs. For the Eagles, their success started with stopping the run first. I'm well aware that forcing teams to 2nd and 3rd and longs will allow us to load up on a pass rush, that 3rd and 5s are demonstrably different than 3rd and 2s, and that our 3rd down defense will be exponentially improved when we can trot out 4 pass rushers to focus exclusively on collapsing the pocket instead of having to play both the run and the pass. We haven't had a defense that has inspired confidence that we'll get a stop on 3rd and short. We haven't had a defense that has inspired confidence that, when down a score late in the 4th and needing a stop against a team trying to run out the clock, we'll get that stop. But I also don't think we're as far off as you think, for a number of reasons I'll get to in another post.
  8. You're forgetting drafting Jonathan Allen in the 1st last year and Matt Ionnidis in the 5th the year before. Moreover, last year, the front office signed two free agents and used their 1st rounder to address the defensive line. All the moves didn't work out, but they were group decisions. The front office went to the coaching staff and asked would you rather have one higher priced defensive linemen or two middle priced defensive linemen. The coaching staff wanted 2. Is that primarily on Allen? Scott Campbell? Jay Gruden? Jim Tomsula? After all, it was Jim Tomsula who convinced Gruden and co that he didn't need a traditional nose tackle to run his line.
  9. Hankins / Poston are probably holding out for a contract similar to the one Timmy Jernigan got in November, 4 years, $48 million with $26 million guaranteed.
  10. 2017 snap counts: Matthew Ioannidis - 584 Ziggy Hood - 539 Stacy McGee - 432 Anthony Lanier - 339 Terrell McClain - 328 AJ Francis - 164 Jonathan Allen - 159 Arthur Jones - 23 Brandon Banks - 12 That's 2,580 snaps. (Meanwhile, Jonathan Hankins in Indi -- 686) It's egregious that Ziggy Hood played so many snaps. We should be demonstrably better from the jump if Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis can each play a health 600 snaps, but that's not enough. I've never been on the Jonathan Hankins bandwagon like some here, but he's such an obvious signing. We should be signing him *and* drafting Vea or Payne in the 1st round. Doing so would allow us to plan for Allen, Ioannidis, Hankins, and Vea/Payne to take ~600 snaps each -- essentially all the available defensive line snaps. Leaving McGee and Lanier the rest, given injuries. In this hypothetical, with 3 of the 4 leading contributors on rookie contracts, we can overpay Hankins and still see significantly more value per dollar spent. Obviously Hood and McClain should be cut, and McGee cut next year. It's pretty simple: with the NFL's institutional parity, in which every team gets essentially the same resources to spend, the teams that invest most heavily their cap dollars and top draft picks into the defensive and offensive lines will rise to the top. Aiming for top-5 offensive and defensive lines with top-10 quarterback play should be the grounding philosophy of this organization. I've never bought into the "Bruce Allen is cheap" narrative, because he's going to spend all of our cap by the end of the day. And he's not going to put us in a position where we can't re-sign Scherff and Preston Smith and maybe Jamison Crowder. But Allen absolutely needs to do more to ensure we have lines that can challenge to be among the league's best. Everything else falls into place after that.
  11. With the Broncos owning the 99th, 106th, and 109th picks of the draft, I wonder if a deal for Sua might consist of a pick swap, wherein we exchange #149 for #109. With #109 and #113 then in tow, we can package them to move into the top half of the 3rd round and get a starting guard, or else use one of them to move up in the 2nd round to ensure we get one of the RBs we're targeting. Using next year's first 3rd will also allow us to be especially aggressive in the draft.
  12. DJ Swearinger and Zach Brown were very good signings, the Mcs and Pryor weren't. Free agency is like the draft, not every move works out. DeSean was a big hit, Chris Culliver not so much. Building a winning team takes the draft, free agency, and smart trades. The Eagles would've been nowhere near the Super Bowl without free agency -- half their offensive line, two starting receivers, starting quarterback, running back, both starting safeties, nickel corner, inside linebacker, and pass rusher were all FA acquisitions.
  13. With Bruce Allen's job on the line this season and the #97th pick almost assuredly going to us next year, we're probably trading a pick from next year's draft to add draft capital this year. Maybe next year's original 3rd. To either move up in the 2nd round and get our RB, or add a 4th round pick -- perhaps package the two picks to move into the 3rd round for our starting LG. Think it was Jay Gruden who said we were going to be "aggressive in the draft." In any case, we're most likely leaving the draft with a dynamic DT, RB, and starting LG. We'll sign a solid veteran corner. We'll add a veteran #4 safety on a team friendly deal, as well as a backup center to compete with Roullier. About to be on his third team in three years, Bennie Logan is far from any answer, and he'd be at best an insignificant improvement over Stacy McGee. He's smaller, too. We'll add a better option in the draft, and with Allen, Ioannidis, (Vea), McGee, McClain, Lainer, we'll have an extremely athletic, young group to go with a good collection of outside rushers. Think many have forgotten how downright dominant Ioannidis was at times before he broke his hand. Ultimately, I think we forget how much of a team's success is really a matter of catching lightning in a bottle, versus being the preseason paper champ. This time last year, no one was predicting dominance by the Eagles. The year before last, no one thought the Cowboys would be 13-3. Or the year before that, that the Panthers would go 15-1. And then the Panthers followed up with 6-10. And then the Cowboys followed up with 9-7. And the Eagles will follow up with - ? One year, the truism is you've gotta have a franchise QB to contend in January. The next, Blake Bortles, Nick Foles and Case Keenum are 3 of the final 4. A team is never one player away, nor is a team ever all that far from contending. A lot of it simply comes down to luck, team chemistry and timing. The right players hitting their stride at just the right time. We're going to have a pretty solid team when the offseason is done with, a team worth being cautiously excited about by Week 1. And whether we get a comp pick or two in the 5th round next year will have no bearing on whether this franchise wins a chip or not.
  14. SkinsTillIDie

    The Race to Black Monday 2019: 12/30/19

    A perfect marriage between San Fran and Chip. The 49ers have a GM that Chip trusts and has worked with -- Chip won't be picking and cutting players. He'll be a coach, doing what he does best. He has the QB who is a near-ideal fit, who can be better than Vick was in that 2013 offense. A QB who can run, withstand punishment, and can throw deep. Chip's system makes it easy on a QB with simple reads. Perfect for Kaepernick. And ingredients in place for a good defense. They won't be investing resources in a tear-down -- this could be a pretty quick turnaround. Could be the difference between 2012 and 2013 Eagles... Best division in football. NFC got better today.