DC9 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is why we have advanced stats: to analyze performance when all we have is a (very limited) eye test to go by. We don't watch every pass rusher across the league; we watch, for the most part, TV footage of games without anywhere near full knowledge of what exactly we're running and what each player's greater responsibility is. And we see Orakpo far more than the others -- it's classic 'grass is greener' syndrome. So when stats emerge that show that, hey, Brian Orakpo is just as an effective pass-rusher as Clay Matthews and Aldon Smith, this is valuable information. Because from our perspective, we consider Matthews and Smith legitimately elite players. Even though Aldon Smith only recorded stats in 5 games last year, and Clay Matthews only recorded a full sack in 6 (and only recorded one multi-sack game last year). Yet we perceive these players to be regular game-changers, and not Orakpo, even though Orakpo is sandwiched between Smith and Matthews in sacks per rush and has more QB knockdowns. I would say, yes, 5 years for $50 million would be a more than acceptable deal. Why? Because in a year or 2 from now, the next tier of young pass-rushers will hit the market when the salary cap is much higher. They'll be getting paid $12, $13, $14 million a year (the Robert Quinns and Aldon Smiths and Von Millers). Orakpo will then be getting paid to be the "very good" pass rusher you think he is, but not elite. So back to the new stats that come out every year... When does the stat "played the Raiders" come out. I believe Orakpo is +40 when playing the Raiders. Let's ask the rest of the league how they feel about Justin Tuck. What did Tuck do against us twice this year and how did that effect his overall numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Est.1974 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Both Bruce Allen & Gruden fairly defensive over the Orakpo situation today. I get the impression we wont get easily screwed over on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Why are we comparing Kerrigan to Orakpo again? Aside from being injured all last year, you'vr two different positions and rolls. Besides, when did Ryan Kerrigan self proclaim to be 'elite' to DPOY standard? My hunch is we'll go for the cheaper option in Jackson knowing he can be relied on to produce, whilst giving Jenkins more of his head in year two and adding another body for the year. A solid spine to the D from a true 34 NT on back will see an upturn in OLB production regardless of 98 here or not. Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thekyle1591 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Why are we comparing Kerrigan to Orakpo again? Aside from being injured all last year, you'vr two different positions and rolls. Besides, when did Ryan Kerrigan self proclaim to be 'elite' to DPOY standard? My hunch is we'll go for the cheaper option in Jackson knowing he can be relied on to produce, whilst giving Jenkins more of his head in year two and adding another body for the year. A solid spine to the D from a true 34 NT on back will see an upturn in OLB production regardless of 98 here or not. Hail Why are we comparing Kerrigan to Orakpo again? Aside from being injured all last year, you'vr two different positions and rolls. Besides, when did Ryan Kerrigan self proclaim to be 'elite' to DPOY standard? My hunch is we'll go for the cheaper option in Jackson knowing he can be relied on to produce, whilst giving Jenkins more of his head in year two and adding another body for the year. A solid spine to the D from a true 34 NT on back will see an upturn in OLB production regardless of 98 here or not. Hail "Jackson knowing he can produce" yeah because his 1 season defiantly proved a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 "Jackson knowing he can produce" yeah because his 1 season defiantly proved a lot. By no means a top level talent , but darn if he hasn't made the most of so little. When Rob Jacksons around the football, things happen. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thekyle1591 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 By no means a top level talent , but darn if he hasn't made the most of so little. When Rob Jacksons around the football, things happen. Hail. He is probably our best cover backer, and is a pretty good rusher. He is the kind of guy we need to keep on our team. Now a starter? Not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zazzaro703 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 He is probably our best cover backer, and is a pretty good rusher. He is the kind of guy we need to keep on our team. Now a starter? Not sure about that. He did quite well as a starter filling in for Orakpo 2012. Hell, it was his bait and pick on Romo that clinched the NFC East title for us. I just think the team has way too many holes going into this off season to commit 11 million to one guy that never really takes over and changes the game. He is almost invisible during NFC East games as well until the end of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thekyle1591 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 He did quite well as a starter filling in for Orakpo 2012. Hell, it was his bait and pick on Romo that clinched the NFC East title for us. You have to look at the larger body of work. Rob Jackson was good in coverage but wasn't great rushing the passer. Orakpo was great at both this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 ..... Orakpo was great at both this year. Not getting into that as it would be just be rehashing the thread from late last summer/ fall; but if that's your assertion of his whole year then we watched a completely different player for most of 2013. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thekyle1591 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not getting into that as it would be just be rehashing the thread from late last summer/ fall; but if that's your assertion of his whole year then we watched a completely different player for most of 2013. Hail. 11 sacks 11 hits 30 hurries 1 int 2 pd.. Those are the raw stats but that is damn good for someone who was asked to do a lot. His run defense was awesome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinthePRF Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 My 2 cents if it hasn't been said above. Excluding any franchise tag implications, let Orakpo walk and go gun ho after Greg Hardy. Hardy is a slightly better player and is two years younger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thekyle1591 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 My 2 cents if it hasn't been said above. Excluding any franchise tag implications, let Orakpo walk and go gun ho after Greg Hardy. Hardy is a slightly better player and is two years younger. That is like the exact opposite of what we should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goskins10 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 And on the subject of Ryan Kerrigan, at what point do we hold him to the same standard as Orakpo? Orakpo was the 13th pick in the draft, Kerrigan was the 16th. Yet we expect Orakpo to be a DeMarcus Ware (in his prime) level elite pass-rusher, while we seem ready to accept 'good' performance from Kerrigan. Orakpo, despite the extra attention and playing against far better pass-protectors, succeeded in sacking the QB once every 37.5 pass rushers. Kerrigan? Once every 52.2 pass rushes. Which puts him at a Ahmad Brooks, Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs level, but not remotely close to a Brian Orakpo level. Entering his 4th year, why don't we expect him to consistently take over games like we do Orakpo? Afterall, Orakpo's only played 16 games more than Kerrigan. You do realize Kerrigan played hurt from about the 3rd or 4th game don't you? He still played decent, just not as well as he had been playing. I would expect him to come back this year with s chip on his shoulder. As far as the actual topic of this thread, Orakpo, I have not been his biggest fan, but he played very well down the stretch last year and there is definitely merit to what his responsibilities were. If we don't sign him, we will overpay someone else to replace him. Why not give him the money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bedlamVR Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Rob Jackson is no where near the player Orakpo is - you could use the same argument for every starter on the field . It is the Kirk Cousins Vs RGIII argument, or the Chis Samuels Vs Willie Smith we can always put the inferior slightly cheaper player on the field and have a team that has no stand out talent but has no glaring holes and then wonder why we always finish at the bottom of the division but at least we are not overpaying stars ... Orakpo is not the same old mistake of going out and getting a player we don't know and paying huge money to attract mistakes to the team, like Mack or Byrd ... teams are generally not going to let talent walk, bad teams let good players walk because they are always looking for that next big thing that next true identity . I actually would not mind letting Rob Jackson walk, he is the kind of player that is wasted $$$, i dont think he is rounded enough to be a starter, or talented enough to hide gaps in his game i believe he has been as good as he is ever going to be in 2012 in that brief moment because when I saw him (when he played in 2013) it was normally not good . Rob Jackson's slot should be a development player whos potential we can tap ... like Brandon Jenkins, rather than someone who peaked 2 years ago after spending his career on and off the PS .. and i like Jackson but it is a reality of the game.. After QB and LT pass rushing DE or OLBs depending on the scheme are the next most important player on the team if you ave a guy, a guy who is young and rounding into form and has delivered from day 1 you don't just let him walk for no reason .. Jackson would have to have shown an awful lot more than he did in 2013 than he did to even be in the conversation as starter at the pass rush OLB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I wonder how Rak feels about Haslett, and if his retention helps make his decision to leave easier. Or, to stay. While an allegiance to the team/loving the city and fans may be in play, I do think if he accepts less than top market dollar to stay here, it may show a certain respect for Haslett. I have been critical of how Rak was used and even proposed if we make him a run stop first top guy again, he may not be worth ~10M... to us. I feel like to get full value from what he will command, he must be used to his strengths. I feel like Hasletts comments about contain may have been said to help convince Rak to stay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 My 2 cents if it hasn't been said above. Excluding any franchise tag implications, let Orakpo walk and go gun ho after Greg Hardy. Hardy is a slightly better player and is two years younger. Hardy is not as good as Orakpo, and most likely can't play linebacker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hardy is not as good as Orakpo, and most likely can't play linebacker. He's Cooleys dream FA FWIW. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 That is like the exact opposite of what we should do. Not that I'm advocating it per se, but if your willing to splash top dollar on Orakpo, why not go the whole hog and splash it on a younger, equally if not more effective rush end? Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Est.1974 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 At the end of the day, the outcome of the Orakpo situation should not be judged in isolation. There are a number of decisions that will need to be judged collectively to determine if the outcome is to the benefit of the roster as a whole. If he can be replaced for say 3-4mil per year less by another player, and that gets you say an ILB, its a no brainer. But if he can't, you are maybe better off keeping him. Lets see how Bruce splashes the $$$$$ and the rest of the FA market shakes up first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinthePRF Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hardy is not as good as Orakpo, and most likely can't play linebacker. Okay, okay, bring in as a RDE then? I'm high on the guy as well. He's been phenomenal the past two years in the league. In any event, our defense needs to bring MUCH more pressure and I see Orakpo's ceiling as a good player, but not great. I see Hardy's as great to the point that if we sign both maybe his presence will make Orakpo a greater player than he has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Okay, okay, bring in as a RDE then? I'm high on the guy as well. He's been phenomenal the past two years in the league. In any event, our defense needs to bring MUCH more pressure and I see Orakpo's ceiling as a good player, but not great. I see Hardy's as great to the point that if we sign both maybe his presence will make Orakpo a greater player than he has been. Like Cooley said, if you're gona' splash 11 million on Orakpo you may as we'll pay 15 for a younger guy who's more productive and the best in the league at his position. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm starting to warm to the idea of letting him walk. If were going to get someone like Spikes who will be an effective blitzer from the inside and an Olb/De like Woodley, while retaining Jax, while spending about the same, I think I'd prefer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm starting to warm to the idea of letting him walk. If were going to get someone like Spikes who will be an effective blitzer from the inside and an Olb/De like Woodley, while retaining Jax, while spending about the same, I think I'd prefer that. Yeah. Cost and need has to be bottom line. If he's cost effective for our needs, great. If he wants top end money, then move on. Folk used to (rightly) lambast Vinny for over paying in FA. What's the difference if you do it to one of your own? Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bedlamVR Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The other thing about downgrading a position, any position simply because of $$$ then it sounds the message loud an clear, you have no intention of fielding a competitive team and more about balancing the books . In sports in the offseason it is never about what you do but what you appear to do . I think the latest round of media comments about not being sure with Orakpo and the tag is a tool to ratchet up the pressure on Rak and his agents . I am not sure what feedback they have coming from free agent speculation but I believe the FO is confident the market, as it has been in recent years, will be a little flat and by holding this stance that they are not going to tag Orakpo gets a better idea of the market value . This may backfire as the market value may be higher than expected which strengthens Raks position but if it does get to that point they still have another week to apply the tag and in theory work on a long term deal or a trade for him, it makes no sense just to let someone who is a hot commodity walk for nothing ... we are not Denver ... If the market is flatter than Racks side think then the FO can apply more leverage sticking to a lower end value and making it more likely that Rak will accept the tag and sign it without issue . There are always ways and means around filling the roster and all starters don't come from FA IF you are going to spend that money on an ILB (3-4 mil) then you have appreciate you are more than likely buying damaged goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah. Cost and need has to be bottom line. If he's cost effective for our needs, great. If he wants top end money, then move on. Folk used to (rightly) lambast Vinny for over paying in FA. What's the difference if you do it to one of your own? Hail. Loyalty. I know this is a business, but one of your own is more likely to care about the guys around him and (continue to) work/play hard for them. To be clear, I'm not saying we need to bring Orakpo back for this reason, just answering your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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