98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I've read it, but like most statistics those need context---and having seen every snap of Orakpo's career multiple times, I can tell you that he often accumulates his sacks in bunches against weak OL, and rarely makes a tangible impact in important games or in big situations. He's generally not a playmaker, and as I've told you before, there's one instance of his pass-rushing ability manifesting itself in a big situation that I can ever think of--when he was held against Dallas week one of Shanahan's first season here, at the very end of the game, and the holding penalty negated a TD pass as time expired. I would say that most dominant pass rushers get sacks in bunches as well as getting them against inferior offensive lineman, I don't see tackles such as Joe Thomas and Tyron Smith giving up too many sacks to any pass rusher in the league. Also, that's what Cowboys fans say about Ware, that he rarely makes any 'impact' plays during games or in big moments, same thing Panthers said about Julius Peppers, and those two are arguably some of the greatest players of all time and future first ballot HOFers. But Orakpo has made several big plays, including this season against Oakland when he had a tackle for loss on a 4th down try, and a tackle on 3rd down to cause Oakland to try a field goal that I believe they missed if I remember correctly. What about his pick 6 against the Bears in a game we won by only 4 points. Not to mention his sacks and hurries and dominant play against the run this season, and I would say it is not true that he doesn't make an impact. Big situation or not he makes an impact, and I would say all throughout a game is a big situation because on any given play, that could mean the difference between a win or a loss. Depends on the money. Not at what you'd pay him. Or what his late season surge will probably have him getting elsewhere. Hail. Would you give him a 5 year deal worth between 50 to 55 million? I think he'll get close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 ^^^ You could say that about pretty much any decent player in the league then. Just pick a few cherry situations where he did something and extrapolate from that what MIGHT have happened had he not done it. It really seems like reaching. What about x player who made y play and prevented z from happening eventually. Gets sorta silly and it doesn't change that Orakpo tends to get sacks against really bad OL guys but disappears against good to great talent. Heck, GB's 4th round rookie who got thrown into the fire handled him pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 ^^^ You could say that about pretty much any decent player in the league then. Just pick a few cherry situations where he did something and extrapolate from that what MIGHT have happened had he not done it. It really seems like reaching. What about x player who made y play and prevented z from happening eventually. Gets sorta silly and it doesn't change that Orakpo tends to get sacks against really bad OL guys but disappears against good to great talent. Heck, GB's 4th round rookie who got thrown into the fire handled him pretty well. He does not disappear against good tackles, that is a false claim, but maybe if he had more opportunities to rush the passer like other top notch pass rushers, he would get more sacks against top notch tackles. Also, sacks aren't the end all be all of a players worth, playing the run and putting pressure on the QB are a big part of what is needed from your OLB, Rak does both very well, and is above average as an OLB in coverage too. Against the Packers in week 2, both Orakpo and Kerrigan looked dominant early on, until the Packers started hitting quick routes negating the pass rush, but Orakpo still had 5 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 tackle for loss in that game, hardly what I would call being 'handled'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I just noticed I have 666 posts, let me go ahead and post something to get off that number. Brian Orakpo is better than Lawrence Taylor. How's that for post number 667? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 lol. I love how you position yourself so you can't lose. If he gets no sacks its fine because sacks aren't the end all be all and he got pressure. If he does get sacks you throw those numbers out there like they're the most important thing in the world. If he gets no sacks or pressure you just say its because he isn't getting to rush the passer enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 lol. I love how you position yourself so you can't lose. If he gets no sacks its fine because sacks aren't the end all be all and he got pressure. If he does get sacks you throw those numbers out there like they're the most important thing in the world. If he gets no sacks or pressure you just say its because he isn't getting to rush the passer enough. Pretty good strategy ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 ..... Would you give him a 5 year deal worth between 50 to 55 million? I think he'll get close to that. $10/ 11 million a year presumably,with the bulk of it guaranteed? Hell no. When you look at Jackson to re-sign, and Kerrigan coming up next year maybe? (I honestly don't know but he can't be that far off his rookie deal), along with all our others needs, that's too much to tie up in one position for someone that's sometimes very good, sometimes very 'meh.' If that's the market as I believe it well may after this years finish, I'd let him get that elsewhere and move on. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 We can go back and forth on whether or not Rak is worth a new contract (I do personally) but I would be very surprised if Dan lets him walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 $10/ 11 million a year presumably,with the bulk of it guaranteed? Hell no. When you look at Jackson to re-sign, and Kerrigan coming up next year maybe? (I honestly don't know but he can't be that far off his rookie deal), along with all our others needs, that's too much to tie up in one position for someone that's sometimes very good, sometimes very 'meh.' If that's the market as I believe it well may after this years finish, I'd let him get that elsewhere and move on. Hail. Kerrigan won't demand the same amount of pay that Rak will. Scouts, and this isn't first hand info but it's 2nd/3rd hand, seem to think Orakpo is by far the better pass rusher of the two. And as you've said several times, which I agree with (whether it's right or wrong is a different story), sacks get you paid. Kerrigan is slightly better in coverage, about the same in the run game, I think Kerrigan is a better tackler... He's much more sound than Rak in that regard, you don't see the same amount of missed tackles from him that you do Rak, and Rak is the better rusher. I think we could realistically keep them paired for awhile if Rak comes in at a cost effective rate. I don't know what that rate would be, personally. I don't have the 'Skins books. But if it's something, whatever Allen decides, that is cost effective then getting him re-upped is a major positive. If he's not re-signed, I'll have to believe that Allen knows what's going on long term and that Rak's contract would have crippled a good part of the team in the future and thus it wasn't feasible. Either way, I trust Bruce Allen to get the contract thing right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Would you give him a 5 year deal worth between 50 to 55 million? I think he'll get close to that. I would not give him 10 million a year and definitely wouldn't give him 11 million a year. My top off would be 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gortiz Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 jumping in here a little blind ... so sorry if this was covered. Does the following mean anything to you as a fan at all, when considering the Skins decision to keep Rak and/or keep him and pay him: 1. he's in his prime age wise 2. he by all accounts wants to be here 3. never involved with off field issues 4. stand up guy and by all accounts a good locker room guy 5. through thick and thin has been level headed and not a distraction Do these non football things have no bearing, some bearing, or a lot for you. Our OLBs are schematically different than virtually every other teams OLBs. There was an article posted a few pages back about how Rak has one of the highest "sacks per rush" % in the league. I'd actually like to find that statistic, because if true, Kerrigan has to be similar. this needs to be an official stat man ... would love to see also a sacks allowed per pass attempt for OL. But yeah ... interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 $10/ 11 million a year presumably,with the bulk of it guaranteed? Hell no. When you look at Jackson to re-sign, and Kerrigan coming up next year maybe? (I honestly don't know but he can't be that far off his rookie deal), along with all our others needs, that's too much to tie up in one position for someone that's sometimes very good, sometimes very 'meh.' If that's the market as I believe it well may after this years finish, I'd let him get that elsewhere and move on. Hail. If comes down to keeping Orakpo or Jackson or Orakpo or Kerrigan, or even Orakpo vs Kerrigan and Jackson both, Orakpo should be the one the Redskins pay to stick around, he's our best OLB. I'm sure we can keep both Rak and Kerrigan though. I would not give him 10 million a year and definitely wouldn't give him 11 million a year. My top off would be 9. The difference between 9 and 11 really isn't that big a deal. jumping in here a little blind ... so sorry if this was covered. Does the following mean anything to you as a fan at all, when considering the Skins decision to keep Rak and/or keep him and pay him: 1. he's in his prime age wise 2. he by all accounts wants to be here 3. never involved with off field issues 4. stand up guy and by all accounts a good locker room guy 5. through thick and thin has been level headed and not a distraction Do these non football things have no bearing, some bearing, or a lot for you. this needs to be an official stat man ... would love to see also a sacks allowed per pass attempt for OL. But yeah ... interesting to see. http://www.hogshaven.com/2013/12/6/5183514/why-re-signing-brian-orakpo-should-be-top-priority-for-the-redskins Brian Orakpo 1,475 pass rush attempts, 39 sacks for a sack rate of 2.6% Now that sounds awful but consider the following: DeMarcus Ware (2009-2012)- 1,995 pass rush attempts, 60 sacks, for a sack rate of 3.1% Terrell Suggs (2009-2011, 2013)- 1,883 pass rush attempts, 39 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.1% Tamba Hali (2009-2012) - 1,856 pass rush attempts, 48 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.6% Jared Allen (2009-2012) - 2,381 pass rush attempts, 60 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.5% Clay Matthews Jr (2009-2012) - 1,675 pass rush attempts, 43 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.6% Cameron Wake (2010-2013) - 1,799 pass rush attempts, 49 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.7% Chris Long (2010-2013) - 2,038 pass rush attempts, 41 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.0% Elvis Dumervil (2009, 2011-2013) - 1,707 pass rush attempts, 52 sacks, for a sack rate of 3.0% Mario Williams (2009-2010, 2012-2013) - 2,015 pass rush attempts, 45 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.2% Ryan Kerrigan (2011-2013) - 1,380 pass rush attempts, 25 sacks, for a sack rate of 1.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If comes down to keeping Orakpo or Jackson or Orakpo or Kerrigan, or even Orakpo vs Kerrigan and Jackson both, Orakpo should be the one the Redskins pay to stick around, he's our best OLB. I'm sure we can keep both Rak and Kerrigan though. The difference between 9 and 11 really isn't that big a deal. Then let's give him 13, because the difference between 11 and 13 isn't that big of a deal! At some point you have to draw a line in the sand, or else it's always able to be "just a little bit more. 9 is my end line because my PREFERED payment to Orakpo is $7 mil. As such, I'm willing to go up to $2 mil in "overpayment", or in other words a solid backup / fill in starter players salary. What I'm NOT willing to do is go up to $4 mil in overpayment", or in other words a solid to good starters salary. Essentially...$7 mil would be a reasonable team friendly contract and would be my preference. $8 mil would be a fair contract to both sides imho. $9 mil would be over payment but not to a gross amount. If the team offered less than $7 mil I'd expect the player to walk away. If the player wants more than $9 mil I'd expect the team to walk away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Then let's give him 13, because the difference between 11 and 13 isn't that big of a deal! At some point you have to draw a line in the sand, or else it's always able to be "just a little bit more. 9 is my end line because my PREFERED payment to Orakpo is $7 mil. As such, I'm willing to go up to $2 mil in "overpayment", or in other words a solid backup / fill in starter players salary. What I'm NOT willing to do is go up to $4 mil in overpayment", or in other words a solid to good starters salary. Essentially...$7 mil would be a reasonable team friendly contract and would be my preference. $8 mil would be a fair contract to both sides imho. $9 mil would be over payment but not to a gross amount. If the team offered less than $7 mil I'd expect the player to walk away. If the player wants more than $9 mil I'd expect the team to walk away. Is there anyone on the team worth 10 million to you other than Griffin? And don't say the guy who gave up 9 1/2 sacks this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roanoker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I hope the deal with Rak gets done soon. The team needs to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gortiz Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If comes down to keeping Orakpo or Jackson or Orakpo or Kerrigan, or even Orakpo vs Kerrigan and Jackson both, Orakpo should be the one the Redskins pay to stick around, he's our best OLB. I'm sure we can keep both Rak and Kerrigan though. The difference between 9 and 11 really isn't that big a deal. http://www.hogshaven.com/2013/12/6/5183514/why-re-signing-brian-orakpo-should-be-top-priority-for-the-redskins Brian Orakpo 1,475 pass rush attempts, 39 sacks for a sack rate of 2.6% Now that sounds awful but consider the following: DeMarcus Ware (2009-2012)- 1,995 pass rush attempts, 60 sacks, for a sack rate of 3.1% Terrell Suggs (2009-2011, 2013)- 1,883 pass rush attempts, 39 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.1% Tamba Hali (2009-2012) - 1,856 pass rush attempts, 48 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.6% Jared Allen (2009-2012) - 2,381 pass rush attempts, 60 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.5% Clay Matthews Jr (2009-2012) - 1,675 pass rush attempts, 43 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.6% Cameron Wake (2010-2013) - 1,799 pass rush attempts, 49 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.7% Chris Long (2010-2013) - 2,038 pass rush attempts, 41 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.0% Elvis Dumervil (2009, 2011-2013) - 1,707 pass rush attempts, 52 sacks, for a sack rate of 3.0% Mario Williams (2009-2010, 2012-2013) - 2,015 pass rush attempts, 45 sacks, for a sack rate of 2.2% Ryan Kerrigan (2011-2013) - 1,380 pass rush attempts, 25 sacks, for a sack rate of 1.8% man, case F'ing closed! very much appreciated 98 ... awesome stuff. I mean, hes right in their with "elite" players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingGibbs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want 'Rak back, but not at the expense of being unable to fill areas of desperate need. It's a Catch 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I want 'Rak back, but not at the expense of being unable to fill areas of desperate need. It's a Catch 22. But if you let Rak walk, then pass rushing OLB becomes an area of desperate need, that's why we can't allow that to happen all mighty KingGibbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingGibbs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's why I said it's a Catch 22 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
98ORAKPO98 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's why I said it's a Catch 22 98. Message heard loud and clear KingGIbbs, over and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontline205 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Man all I know is if we let him go we only have one guy on this team who's even capable of picking up multiple sacks in a single game. Plus he's played 4-3 and 3-4 and has managed double sack seasons in both formations. I think having a guy capable of doing that at LB is pretty valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is there anyone on the team worth 10 million to you other than Griffin? And don't say the guy who gave up 9 1/2 sacks this season. Grr, I hate when I have a post typed up and then I accidentally reload the page. First if you want to discuss let's discuss without your ridiculously adding on little snipes at the end of your post. I'm not sitting here going "And don't tell me the guy who hasn't been able to get more than 10 sacks in the past 4 years". Don't sit here in this thread making excuses CONSTANTLY for why stats don't tell the whole story with Orakpo and then flippantly and dismissively toss a random stat out there right off the bat...it's not condusive to an actual discussion. Now, to your question... Griffin is the only person on the team I'd clearly and without concern say that we should give more than $10 million to if he's living up to his potential by the time his next contract comes around. The only other person on the team I'd consider saying that about would be Trent. Let me explain why. First, I disagree with you in terms of importance. You put pass rusher as the next most important thing seeminly towards quarterback. I put LT. I feel that it's easier, through the use of other teammates and through scheme, to make up for average to above average pass rushing ability in your OLB than it is to make up for average to above average ability in your Left Tackle. I think our success last year, WITHOUT Rak, is indicative that it IS possible. Second, Trent does not have the injury history that Orakpo does. You can make every excuse for it that you want; fact of the matter is that Brian Orakpo has missed pretty much an entire season to injury and Williams hasn't. And, that Orakpo has injured the same area twice. That gives me pause when paying significant money. Third, paying Trent Williams in the $10-$12 range (which at the moment would be the general range I'd feel comfortable going in) is not a large departure of what's already happening. From the site I'm looking at, Trent is already making around $10 mil a year (Source). Going from $10 to $12 would not be a significant system shock to our current financial structure. However, going from $3.5 Mil for Orakpo currently to $10 Mil WOULD be a significant system shock. Fourth, the situation with the contracts of the LTs and OLB's is different. At the VERY top, OLB's are making more than their LT counter parts. The top per year LT is making $12.8 mil while the top OLB is making $13.2. However, as you start dropping outside of the top 5 contracts the number skews massively. LT's stay expensive. The 10th most expensive OLB is $8 mil compared to only $6 mil for OLB's. The 15th highest paid LT is $6.5 Mil (Still $.5 more than the 10th OLB) while OLB is at $4 mil. The 20th highest paid LT? Still pulling down $5.3 Mil. The 20th highest paid OLB? $2.1 Mil Once you get out of the TOP of the TOP, LT's are more expensive than OLBs. So the difference between a mid level LT contract ($7.2 Mil, Joe Staley, 12th highest paid LT) and a top end contract is in that $4 to 6 million range. The difference between a mid level OLB contract ($4.75 Mil, Jarret Johnson, 12th highest paid OLB) and a top end contract mil is in the $7-$9 million range If I'm going to have to pay a mid level LT contract of $8 mil, going $3 million higher to give Trent $11 isn't a huge change. If I'm going to have to pay a mid level OLB $5 mil, giving Orakpo DOUBLE that is a pretty large jump. Even so, Trent definitely needs to show another year of healthy play, pro-bowl caliber play, and flashes of legitimate all pro ability to warrant it. But he'd be the only other person who I could warrant seeing close to that. Robert, if he lives up to potential, is a clearly over $10 million guy Trent is right around $10 million Orakpo and Garcon are the only guys I'd say are worthy of that "Near $10 Mil" range. Kerrigan and *MAYBE* Alfred is probably right under that, coming in around the $5-$7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Do I think Orakpo is a good player? Yes Would I like to keep him if I had my druthers? yes Do I think he's a better play than Rob Jackson? Yes Do I think it'll be harder to fill the hole losing Orakpo would create then it will be to fill the hole at MLB, the deficiencies we have at Corner and Safety, or on the D-Line? No, I do not. The defense last year without Orakpo and this year with Orakpo was largley very similar in makeup. The only real significant changes was some change at the Safety spot that was ineffectual and a new CB in Amerson. However the RESULTS with the defense last year and this year were mostly the same. What that tells me is that our issues on defense are in some of the places we haven't significantly addressed (Safety, replacement for the slowing/aging London, a true Nose Tackle). If the choice is bringing back Orakpo and not having the money to address other needs (sorry, but we're not going to be able to give Orakpo $10 mil and Jarius Byrd $9 or $10 and then somehow pick up Julius Peppers if he's cut due to cap situations like some posters have dreamed), I'd rather roll with Rob Jackson and try and upgrade in other areas on the Defense (not to mention on the offensive line as well). It doesn't mean I think Jackson's a better player than Orakpo, but rather that the "hole" that is left by him is less difficult or impactful than the ones we are needing to fill. Ultimately, my hope and preference would be to find a way to fill those holes AND give Orakpo a reasonable but workable contract. But if he's wanting to be paid like a top 5 OLB then I'd say he's welcome to try the market. Yes, it's a catch-22 that if we let him go then that's another spot we have to fill. But if it's the difference between saving that money and filling THREE spots, or spending the money on him and having two holes...I'm going to fill the three spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJD2 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 .. Second, Trent does not have the injury history that Orakpo does. You can make every excuse for it that you want; fact of the matter is that Brian Orakpo has missed pretty much an entire season to injury and Williams hasn't. And, that Orakpo has injured the same area twice. That gives me pause when paying significant money... Well you could make the argument that TW is only 1 bad test away from a year long suspension so why pay him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mania Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I just noticed I have 666 posts, let me go ahead and post something to get off that number. Brian Orakpo is better than Lawrence Taylor. How's that for post number 667? in our dreams, in our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.