The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

It’s funny about all the dialogue about pro ready or not.

 

If you want the most pro ready guy it’s Michael Penix. He’s been in college since the BCS.

 

In all seriousness, I don’t know that any of them are “ready”. I think every one of them would benefit from sitting for a season or two. I also think that whatever team they go to, would not benefit them from sitting a year or two… if they are naturally selected in the top 5.

[shemp nixon]

9 hours ago, DWinzit said:

He was good not elite. However he was elite to those of us looking through the Burgundy and Gold glasses. He was the dude and by having his career cut short in the ugly way it did added to his liked or even legendary. 

Truth be told, JT's career was dying on the vine when he was injured. He was playing like ****.

[Warhead36]

57 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

Another discussion with Keim:

 

 

 

Harris’s mantra is no short cute.

 

I can’t imagine AP not being in agreement.

[Riggo-toni]

12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I watched him in the 80s. never felt he was elite.  But to each their own on that.  I do think he had one great season, 1983.  Outside of that, good QB IMO.

Agreed.  He was very inconsistent.  It would have been nice to see what he could have done if he had Gibbs as his coach for his career rather than Allen who just wanted to avoid turnovers, or Pardee - who thought Riggins was best suited to be a blocking back. Too bad he didn't retire after 84. Schroeder+ Rogers would have gotten us deep into the playoffs in 85.

 

[88Comrade2000]

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Harris’s mantra is no short cute.

 

I can’t imagine AP not being in agreement.

Yeah, no shorts cutes.😀

 

We want to be a team that consistently contends and when the inevitable downturn occurs, it’s not deep or long lasting.

 

Just look at the free agency era since 1993 and see which teams have been consistent winners.  Some of it does involve a little luck, ie Green Bay having 2 franchise qbs and possibly could have a third one with Love.

 

We got competent people running the show now and they will make the best decision they feel.

 

 

I prefer the rookie qb to start as soon as he’s ready. The only way to get experience is by playing but I don’t want the qb playing if he isn’t ready yet or we don’t have the line yet to protect him. I can live with Mariotta starting the season and then give way to the rookie qb; unless that rookie qb wows like Russell Wilson did in his rookie year.

[HigSkin]

15 hours ago, spjunkies said:

 

Allegedly 

 

Yes, EB flat out said it was "gossip".  I was joking with Sacks and Stuff

[TheBigJourney]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-nfl-draft-would-giants-trade-up-for-a-qb-maybe-if-that-qb-is-drake-maye
 

Now, if quarterbacks are taken with the first three picks and Maye somehow slips to No. 4, the Giants would probably have better luck making a deal for that pick with the Arizona Cardinals, or even with the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5. But that's another thing that doesn't seem likely to happen. 

In fact, multiple NFL sources said they don't believe Maye will get past the Commanders at No. 2. Despite a lot of speculation that Daniels is a better fit for the scheme of new Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and a report that GM Adam Peters was eyeing McCarthy, there are many people around the NFL who view those tidbits as smokescreens.

[Anselmheifer]

55 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Harris’s mantra is no short cute.

 

I can’t imagine AP not being in agreement.

That is the nice thing about not having a coach centric FO. 
 

Adam Peters is a highly regarded, young, new hire. I would assume that he is hoping to work a full career of more than 10 years hear and have a long period of sustained success. I wouldn’t expect for him to make sacrifices in order to get to the first round of the playoffs a year faster. 
 

And Dan Quinn is also a new hire who should get plenty of leash. 
 

Im not sure they will take who I want, but I do trust that the decision making process should be solid and focused on a long term vision. 

[bird_1972]

19 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

That is the nice thing about not having a coach centric FO. 
 

Adam Peters is a highly regarded, young, new hire. I would assume that he is hoping to work a full career of more than 10 years hear and have a long period of sustained success. I wouldn’t expect for him to make sacrifices in order to get to the first round of the playoffs a year faster. 
 

And Dan Quinn is also a new hire who should get plenty of leash. 
 

Im not sure they will take who I want, but I do trust that the decision making process should be solid and focused on a long term vision. 

 

This is why I hope they take Maye. The better play is to use the rare opportunity to grab a guy with elite upside at #2 overall rather than a 5th year late-riser like Daniels who is who he is at this point - very little upside. 

 

That likely means the FO has to have patience in developing the QB but we have the infrastructure in place to do that now and AP has said in interviews he doesn't feel like they need to rush any rookie into the game before he's ready. 

 

I really, really hope this means they take the chance on Maye and let him sit for a few games/half the season. The reality is that this team isn't a QB away from a SB contender so it's best to roll with Mariotta and work on getting the QB ready behind the scenes while the rest of the roster gets acclimated to the new coaching/culture.

[Command The 414]

If you go back to the Adam Peters initial introduction PC a question was asked to him about his time in SF and he said despite not seeing it in W’s the team made strides (which at first were very rough) but they came through and built a perennial winner there.  I can’t see him being much different here even now being the main man as far as GM is concerned.  Having said this I don’t think he’s looking to go 5-12 or 6-11 etc… either.

 

I don’t think with all the nay sayers saying that Daniels gives them the best chance early to compete that his decision comes down to that, I don’t think he’s looking for us to be the Texans where we draft a rookie and then make the playoffs after being a doormat (if it happens great, but I don’t see it being his main focus) so I don’t think the QB he chooses will be made thinking of the here and now but will be made for the future as well…

 

I actually think spread out over the long haul that despite what many say are flaws in his game that Maye will be the choice cause by all reports he has the most upside along side his abilities… just my opinion, as I think all this Daniels talk about it being a done deal and all is just a smoke screen….

Edited April 6 by Command The 414

[method man]

1 hour ago, bird_1972 said:

 

This is why I hope they take Maye. The better play is to use the rare opportunity to grab a guy with elite upside at #2 overall rather than a 5th year late-riser like Daniels who is who he is at this point - very little upside. 

 

That likely means the FO has to have patience in developing the QB but we have the infrastructure in place to do that now and AP has said in interviews he doesn't feel like they need to rush any rookie into the game before he's ready. 

 

I really, really hope this means they take the chance on Maye and let him sit for a few games/half the season. The reality is that this team isn't a QB away from a SB contender so it's best to roll with Mariotta and work on getting the QB ready behind the scenes while the rest of the roster gets acclimated to the new coaching/culture.

Given the progress JD made from year 4 to year 5, it is silly to say that there is very little upside left. Cousins and Wilson came to the NFL as 5th year seniors and both obviously continued to make massive leaps in the NFL

1 hour ago, Command The 414 said:

If you go back to the Adam Peters initial introduction PC a question was asked to him about his time in SF and he said despite not seeing it in W’s the team made strides (which at first were very rough) but they came through and built a perennial winner there.  I can’t see him being much different here even now being the main man as far as GM is concerned.  Having said this I don’t think he’s looking to go 5-12 or 6-11 etc… either.

 

I don’t think with all the nay sayers saying that Daniels gives them the best chance early to compete that his decision comes down to that, I don’t think he’s looking for us to be the Texans where we draft a rookie and then make the playoffs after being a doormat (if it happens great, but I don’t see it being his main focus) so I don’t think the QB he chooses will be made thinking of the here and now but will be made for the future as well…

 

I actually think spread out over the long haul that despite what many say are flaws in his game that Maye will be the choice cause by all reports he has the most upside along side his abilities… just my opinion, as I think all this Daniels talk about it being a done deal and all is just a smoke screen….

There is a bit of self fulfilling prophecy by getting off to a faster start with a rookie QB. You are able to attract more talent early on in that rookie’s career. 
 

Look at the Texans and the splashes they’ve made with Hunter and Diggs. Talent generally wants to follow talent

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

[Idaho fan]

The more high (and low)-lights I watch of both Maye and JD the more I go back and forth.  I will say I’ve warmed up to JD more than a few weeks ago.  I’m also admitting to falling for a lot of the hype that JD will be the pick.  
 

I keep going back to things Hoge has said about both.   Things he said in the past about Stroud last year.   I also just can’t imagine Mariota being their plan at QB if they were to draft Maye.  
 

basically I’m really excited to see how things unfold and am so glad Danya nor Ron will Be making this pick. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

1 hour ago, bird_1972 said:

 

This is why I hope they take Maye. The better play is to use the rare opportunity to grab a guy with elite upside at #2 overall rather than a 5th year late-riser like Daniels who is who he is at this point - very little upside. 

 

That likely means the FO has to have patience in developing the QB but we have the infrastructure in place to do that now and AP has said in interviews he doesn't feel like they need to rush any rookie into the game before he's ready. 

 

I really, really hope this means they take the chance on Maye and let him sit for a few games/half the season. The reality is that this team isn't a QB away from a SB contender so it's best to roll with Mariotta and work on getting the QB ready behind the scenes while the rest of the roster gets acclimated to the new coaching/culture.

Daniels, very little upside? Come on

[MartinC]

15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I watched him in the 80s. never felt he was elite.  But to each their own on that.  I do think he had one great season, 1983.  Outside of that, good QB IMO.

I think he was in that top 10 category. But I guess that O was more built around Riggins and the O’Line than Joey. It wasn’t often the game was put on his arm.

[Command The 414]

35 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Look at the Texans and the splashes they’ve made with Hunter and Diggs. Talent generally wants to follow talent

That’s just it, now all of a sudden the Texans (which are the exception and not the norm) when it comes to rookies having the success that both Stroud and the team did… and for those of us (like myself and more then likely the majority of this board remembers) everyone thought that Dan Marino when he lost to the 9ers in the SB he was going to have many chances, I love Stroud for the player he is but more importantly the things he stands up for as a Man but I also I’m not so fast to anoint him the next Mahomes or Brady after 1yr as the tag is all of a sudden being placed on him and the Texans too… all of a sudden they’re the team that will over throw the Chiefs…I think the breaks need tapped a bit  

Edited April 6 by Command The 414

[mistertim]

25 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Daniels, very little upside? Come on

 

I think it really depends on how you define upside and what traits you look at or look for when analyzing it.

[Redd]

Still glad Washington gets to decide on who they want instead of trading up for what’s left. So many of you here didn’t think we had a chance for the number 2 pick. 

 

No way Commies were gonna out suck Carolina in the end. Bears had their pick so they get whoever they want this upcoming draft.

 

I know exactly when this team was picking in the top 3 at the worst. The winless(at the time)Bears beating us in prime time. I knew then the team wasn’t imploding. We were witnessing the aftermath.

[The Consigliere]

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, I've spent more time than I should selling Maye.  But I am never 100% confident of any prospect -- certainly not at that level. 

In the midst of arguing some things are lost, which is how much risk of bust or just average dudeness that sort of Andy Dalton/Ryan Tannehill line (a 13th high end, more typically 17th-19th caliber performance level):

 

So for me, I've already posted on this, so I'm probably changing my percentages in the moment but here's how I see them:

 

Caleb Williams:

Stud Chance: 60%

15th and above chance: 75% (60+15)

Below Average: 15%

Bust: 10%

 

Drake Maye:

Stud Chance: 35%

15th and above: 70% (35+35)

Below Average: 10%

Bust: 20%

 

Jayden Daniels:

Stud Chance: 30%

15th and Above Chance: 50% (30+20)

Below Average: 10%

Bust: 40%

 

JJ McCarthy:

Stud Chance: 15%

15th and Above Chance: 25% (15+10)

Below Average: 25%

Bust: 50%

 

Michael Penix:

Stud Chance: 25%

15th and Above Chance: 45% (25+20)

Below Average: 20%

Bust: 35% (25% of the bust risk is medical for me)

 

Bo Nix:

Stud Chance: 10%

15th and Above Chance: 20% (10+10)

Below Average: 25% 

Bust: 55%

 

I'm as crap as anyone projecting future success, but when I think a guy sucks, like Ponder, like Manuel, like Trubisky, like Zach Wilson, like Ryan Pickett etc and feel it almost comprehensively I can't remember the last time I was obviously wrong other than Josh Allen. Maybe Matt Ryan? But I wasn't paying attention back then and my memory was more: why didn't Matt Ryan do more at Boston College if he was so great? But I was paying ZERO attention to any of college football back then so I don't really think much of my analysis at the time, with Allen, I was 1000% engaged and just wrong, period. I've got the, he's the outlier of outlier excuse, which he was, but he was also a traits guy in a similar way to Maye, and I ignored his traits and fixated on his accuracy issues above all. 

 

Anyway, so my huge bust warning guys for this class are Bo Nix, at 55%, and around 75-80% of just being a below average to bust level guy, same with McCarthy, who I have at a 75% chance that he's basically valued like Pickett 2 years from now (3 since he's young unlike Pickett when he came out) and Daniels, who I view as classic boom bust. Daniels is almost certainly gonna be one of two things: either Kyler Murray/Diet Lamar/RGIII who doesn't suck, or a bust. He's not gonna be average, unless he hits on that unicorn level Fields did, where he's not a good QB as a passer, but he's an effective football player, on the field (it's hard to rate Fields because 2 of 3 years he was a below average to bad QB, but all 3 years he was productive, and in 1 of 3 he was average in general). 

 

So my Red Flag guys are clearly, Daniels, JJ and Nix, and my come aboard guys are Williams, Maye and Penix, but Penix, cleared or not, rarely finished seasons healthy, period, regardless of whether he's healthy now, his CV says his current health is against his trend lines historically, most of the Penix bust risk to me is all about health. If he's healthy, he will almost certainly be the 3rd best QB in the class, with a chance at being the 2nd best. If he's not healthy, he goes straight down the injury related bust basket which comes with an asterisk. One of the selling points that I like about Maye is that I believe, his traits/tools, mean he won't bust, period, at worst, he's gonna be a stat accumulator that you can't rely on. Some fat #'s, but a frustrating QB who makes stupid decisions and stupid mistakes at times trusting his talent and arm more than he should, but the tools are so good, it still means he'll be, to me, at worst, a QB in that 13th-21st zone. If he hits and cleans up his issues he's a top 10 guy with top 5 potential, which is why I just like him more than Daniels, you get the same upside of Daniels, with less bust risk, and more insulated value. That's why I prefer him. Of course there's a bigger risk for him than Daniels, in that if Daniels isn't it, you will know and know early, if Maye isn't it, it may end up being like Winston, where you're trying to figure out whether to move on from this guy that throws for 4000+ every year, 20+ TD's, but has shocker games, and too many picks (although the sense i get is that he's actually pretty smart when it comes to picks).

 

Just my thoughts. 

 

And like I said before, my predictions for success are totally unreliable: I've hit on plenty of guys over the years, but I've missed on at least 50-55% too, so, no better than anyone else, I'm just pretty good at sniffing out busts. That's it. And my bust guys are Nix, and JJ, and to a lesser extent Daniels, who like I said, feels like a home run or a strike out, and inbetween, really not much other than maybe that kind of Fields level torture of an athlete who just can't hack the position. I'm praying for Maye. 

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

And like I said before, my predictions for success are totally unreliable: I've hit on plenty of guys over the years, but I've missed on at least 50-55% too, so, no better than anyone else, I'm just pretty good at sniffing out busts. That's it. And my bust guys are Nix, and JJ, and to a lesser extent Daniels, who like I said, feels like a home run or a strike out, and inbetween, really not much other than maybe that kind of Fields level torture of an athlete who just can't hack the position. I'm praying for Maye. 

 

As Adam Peters more or less said if anyone has figured out the formula call him, he will hire that person. Clearly no one cracked the code.

 

I don't agree with all of those breakdowns but i like the mindset behind it all -- its a good method to break it down IMO -- % stud, % top 15 and above, etc, I like the thinking. 

Edited April 6 by Skinsinparadise

[WashingtonRedWolves]

26 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

In the midst of arguing some things are lost, which is how much risk of bust or just average dudeness that sort of Andy Dalton/Ryan Tannehill line (a 13th high end, more typically 17th-19th caliber performance level):

 

So for me, I've already posted on this, so I'm probably changing my percentages in the moment but here's how I see them:

 

Caleb Williams:

Stud Chance: 60%

15th and above chance: 75% (60+15)

Below Average: 15%

Bust: 10%

 

Drake Maye:

Stud Chance: 35%

15th and above: 70% (35+35)

Below Average: 10%

Bust: 20%

 

Jayden Daniels:

Stud Chance: 30%

15th and Above Chance: 50% (30+20)

Below Average: 10%

Bust: 40%

 

JJ McCarthy:

Stud Chance: 15%

15th and Above Chance: 25% (15+10)

Below Average: 25%

Bust: 50%

 

Michael Penix:

Stud Chance: 25%

15th and Above Chance: 45% (25+20)

Below Average: 20%

Bust: 35% (25% of the bust risk is medical for me)

 

Bo Nix:

Stud Chance: 10%

15th and Above Chance: 20% (10+10)

Below Average: 25% 

Bust: 55%

 

I'm as crap as anyone projecting future success, but when I think a guy sucks, like Ponder, like Manuel, like Trubisky, like Zach Wilson, like Ryan Pickett etc and feel it almost comprehensively I can't remember the last time I was obviously wrong other than Josh Allen. Maybe Matt Ryan? But I wasn't paying attention back then and my memory was more: why didn't Matt Ryan do more at Boston College if he was so great? But I was paying ZERO attention to any of college football back then so I don't really think much of my analysis at the time, with Allen, I was 1000% engaged and just wrong, period. I've got the, he's the outlier of outlier excuse, which he was, but he was also a traits guy in a similar way to Maye, and I ignored his traits and fixated on his accuracy issues above all. 

 

Anyway, so my huge bust warning guys for this class are Bo Nix, at 55%, and around 75-80% of just being a below average to bust level guy, same with McCarthy, who I have at a 75% chance that he's basically valued like Pickett 2 years from now (3 since he's young unlike Pickett when he came out) and Daniels, who I view as classic boom bust. Daniels is almost certainly gonna be one of two things: either Kyler Murray/Diet Lamar/RGIII who doesn't suck, or a bust. He's not gonna be average, unless he hits on that unicorn level Fields did, where he's not a good QB as a passer, but he's an effective football player, on the field (it's hard to rate Fields because 2 of 3 years he was a below average to bad QB, but all 3 years he was productive, and in 1 of 3 he was average in general). 

 

So my Red Flag guys are clearly, Daniels, JJ and Nix, and my come aboard guys are Williams, Maye and Penix, but Penix, cleared or not, rarely finished seasons healthy, period, regardless of whether he's healthy now, his CV says his current health is against his trend lines historically, most of the Penix bust risk to me is all about health. If he's healthy, he will almost certainly be the 3rd best QB in the class, with a chance at being the 2nd best. If he's not healthy, he goes straight down the injury related bust basket which comes with an asterisk. One of the selling points that I like about Maye is that I believe, his traits/tools, mean he won't bust, period, at worst, he's gonna be a stat accumulator that you can't rely on. Some fat #'s, but a frustrating QB who makes stupid decisions and stupid mistakes at times trusting his talent and arm more than he should, but the tools are so good, it still means he'll be, to me, at worst, a QB in that 13th-21st zone. If he hits and cleans up his issues he's a top 10 guy with top 5 potential, which is why I just like him more than Daniels, you get the same upside of Daniels, with less bust risk, and more insulated value. That's why I prefer him. Of course there's a bigger risk for him than Daniels, in that if Daniels isn't it, you will know and know early, if Maye isn't it, it may end up being like Winston, where you're trying to figure out whether to move on from this guy that throws for 4000+ every year, 20+ TD's, but has shocker games, and too many picks (although the sense i get is that he's actually pretty smart when it comes to picks).

 

Just my thoughts. 

 

And like I said before, my predictions for success are totally unreliable: I've hit on plenty of guys over the years, but I've missed on at least 50-55% too, so, no better than anyone else, I'm just pretty good at sniffing out busts. That's it. And my bust guys are Nix, and JJ, and to a lesser extent Daniels, who like I said, feels like a home run or a strike out, and inbetween, really not much other than maybe that kind of Fields level torture of an athlete who just can't hack the position. I'm praying for Maye. 

Valid points. Now, you made a point that Daniels is a home run or strike out, no real in between. By contrast, Maye would be the safer pick, with a higher likelihood between the two of falling in the middle of both extremes and just being average (if he didn’t pan out).

 

If we really wanted to swing for the fences, as many on here have touted, it seems to me that pick would be Daniels, would it not?

Edited April 6 by WashingtonRedWolves

[mhd24]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Harris’s mantra is no short cute.

 

I can’t imagine AP not being in agreement.

Yup.  Philly took Embiid knowing he wasn't going to even play his rookie year.  They were playing the long game.  I can't see us going for immediate satisfaction over the best longterm answer.

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Valid points. Now, you made a point that Daniels is a home run or strike out, no in between. By contrast, Maye would be the safer pick, with a higher likelihood between the two of falling in the middle of both extremes and just being average (if he didn’t pan out).

 

If we really wanted to swing for the fences, as many on here have touted, it seems to me that pick would be Daniels, would it not?

 

If we go by his numbers, then Maye would simply be the better pick than Daniels, not just safer. Better because he has both a higher chance of not completely busting but also a higher ceiling (likelihood of being a stud).

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Idaho fan said:

The more high (and low)-lights I watch of both Maye and JD the more I go back and forth.  I will say I’ve warmed up to JD more than a few weeks ago.  I’m also admitting to falling for a lot of the hype that JD will be the pick.  
 

I keep going back to things Hoge has said about both.   Things he said in the past about Stroud last year.   I also just can’t imagine Mariota being their plan at QB if they were to draft Maye.  
 

basically I’m really excited to see how things unfold and am so glad Danya nor Ron will Be making this pick. 

Mariota wasn't really a plan or part of any sort of plan. They went after Darnold first.

 

Also, we need to stop with the "Mariota means Daniels because similar playstyle" argument. Mariota is actually closer to Maye's style of play than Daniels.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Daniels, very little upside? Come on

I think he means room for growth.