The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

16 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

"You play the game to win."

 

The strength of Michigan is their huge offensive line that dominates in run blocking.

 

If you have an overwhelming strength, one that opponents can't stop, and you win every game by focusing almost exclusively on this strength, why would you resort to any other tactic?

 

The ultimate goal is to win, not to prepare a college qb to play in the NFL.

 

Michigan was known for having a team that focused on the running game and defense. An elite passing QB just seems like an odd fit for that, from both sides. Odd for the QB in question to choose to go to a school where he'd know that his passing wouldn't be featured much. And odd for the school because they also know they don't pass all that much.

Edited April 5 by mistertim

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yeah, I mean I get it. That’s the thinking and that’s the reasoning a lot of people keep saying, but I don’t think that that’s ever actually been true in practice. If a team has an awesome rushing attack and an awesome passing attack, they do both and they complement each other Making them even more dangerous. Imagine how good Michigan run game would have been if they weren’t facing stacked boxes all the time.

 

 

If a team has an awesome rushing attack and an awesome passing attack, they do both and they complement each other Making them even more dangerous. 

 

In theory, that would absolutely be a sensible way to proceed.

 

In practice, coaches just want to win, their livelihood deoends on it, and if they have a proven winning edge (in this case the running game) they're going to keep on milking it.

 

Why would they shake things up and take a chance on something else  when they're winning?

 

There are no style points or bonuses for winning by running AND passing.

 

It's not like this is gymnastics and you're trying to get the judges to give you a perfect 10.0 on the vault.

 

Big 10 college football is serious business. It's a zero sum game.

 

At the end of the day you either win or you lose. (Yes ties exist but you get my point).

 

Al Davis said it best, "Just win baby!"

 

 

[ILikeBilly2]

6 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Stay strong in the storm.

 

THREE WEEKS OUT FROM THE 2021 DRAFT THE 49ers were the consensus, smart money pick to draft Mac Jones. 

 

If you surveyed mock drafts back then all you'd see:

 

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

Pick 3. 49ers Mac Jones

 

The one similarity between the 2021 Niners and us: Adam "Lockjaw" Peters is making the call.

 

Anything can happen and the prognosticators won't have a clue what we're going to do until we make the pick.

 

 

 

 

I think you meant to say:  Anything can happen and the prognosticators won't have a clue what we're going to do until after the commercial break.  😁

Edited April 5 by ILikeBilly2

[Jumbo]

11 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

If you’re so big of a fan, why didn’t you get his name right? It’s spelled LeVar.

 

Lack of focus. One of my signature traits.

[kingdaddy]

19 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don’t think he can be Lamar.  Can he be something approximating Hurts, just a bit different? I mean, he’s not going to Tush Push anybody at 200lbs.  

i don't want him to be either of these two....I want him to be more a combo of Cunningham/Mahomes than Lamar/Hurts. Neither Hurts or Lamar can pass like Daniels. 

[Conn]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

i don't want him to be either of these two....I want him to be more a combo of Cunningham/Mahomes than Lamar/Hurts. Neither Hurts or Lamar can pass like Daniels. 

Let’s not be hasty. Lamar has had a 36 TD season. Daniels is chasing him as a passer once he enters the NFL, not the other way around. 

[Warhead36]

Jackson has a much stronger arm than Daniels. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Thought this was interesting, if true:

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

New and very in-depth look at that mysterious creature, the pressure-to-sack ratio - with some very concerning info and conclusions if you're wishing or think Commanders will draft JD5:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pressure-sack-rate-applied-112029054.html

 

Pressure to sack rate: What is it and how can it be applied?

NBC Sports

Wed, Apr 3, 2024, 7:20 AM EDT

 

Not every quarterback who is good at avoiding sacks in college becomes a good NFL quarterback, but most good NFL quarterbacks are good at avoiding sacks in college. In addition, college pressure to sack rate is best used as a tool to spot potential land mines in the NFL Draft, not to identify the next Patrick Mahomes.

 

The above statements are what I have consistently told myself after digging into pressure to sack rates for the last six months. I encourage readers to reference it if, at any point, they believe I'm making an argument that suggests otherwise.

 

(continues....)

Edited April 5 by Dah-Dee

[wit33]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

If we draft Daniels I'll be very disappointed on draft day, and think the pick was a mistake, but then the next day I'll shift to fully supporting him and hoping I'm wrong. I think most Maye advocates feel the same way.

 

Respect! ✊

 

I'm much like you, but I believe there are many ways to win at QB, and for me, most of it relates to the cap hit. But that's a whole other conversation. 
 

I love that Drake Maye is uber-aggressive with throwing down the field, which is close to my number one prerequisite for a pocket/mobile QB to have any shot at impacting games beyond QBs 8-35 or so. 

 

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

And the "uber athletic" running type QB is nothing new. There have been some over the last 20 years. Vick, Cam, RG3, Lamar, Richardson. But most teams prefer pocket passers first, and none of those guys won anything or had especially long careers. So "about to break through" is a bit misleading.

Russell Wilson belongs on our side. Lol

 

No doubt, the 50-plus-year history of the NFL doesn’t have a lot of run-centric QBs winning SBs, but I like to include the final 8 or even final four, and the run-centric QB is littered all over the place over the last 15-20 years. 
 

I’m open to any and all pathways to achieve some sort of elite performance or success at the QB spot. For example, I was the biggest Alex Smith supporter here because I believed his intangibles were elite, and overnight he changed the culture within the locker room during his time (AP deserves credit as well).
 

I'm intrigued by any path that creates a potential avenue to escape average or mediocrity that permiaties throughout the league each and every year. 

Edited April 5 by wit33

[mudhog]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Exactly.  Some here are acting like Keim spitballs or is easily played.  None of that is true though.

 

He's super cautious about offering any nuggets.  Cooley used to make fun of how Keim is so cautious to say anything unless he has 7 sources backing him up.

 

This is coming from me who is firmly in the Maye camp.  But I guess am a bit different than some of the Maye people here in that I won't be angry or dissappointed if they took Daniels.

 

And my only point is for those who think no way they are taking Daniels.  At a minimum it feels like a real possibility.  I am not saying it happens.  But at a minimum, I don't think its some outlandish ridiculous possibility where we shouldn't brace ourselves for it happening.  Keim at a minimum has been telegraphing it could happen.  Just like he did say Quinn is a real possibility as HC from pretty much from the jump.

 

Ditto him referencing he doesn't think McCarthy at #2 but wouldn't rule it out in a trade down.  He has had to hear something.  He doesn't throw stuff against the wall.  Other reporters throw stuff against the wall but not Keim. 

 

 

I took Keim's reaction to the guy's tweet to mean that it's really never been a Washington theme to be pursuing JJ.  But that it's always been Daniels or Maye. As an aside, I think DQ's reaction and big smile as he walked away from Maye at his pro day to speak volumes as to HIS preference for QB. Just my take though. DQ gets his input, but I think Kliff and Peters have the lions share of the draft choice for QB.

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

NBC

Bwahhaahahahaha

8 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Thought this was interesting, if true:

 

 

Simms. Is going to fail MISERABLY this time. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, Dah-Dee said:

New and very in-depth look at that mysterious creature, the pressure-to-sack ratio - with some very concerning info and conclusions if you're wishing or think Commanders will draft JD5:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pressure-sack-rate-applied-112029054.html

 

Pressure to sack rate: What is it and how can it be applied?

NBC Sports

Wed, Apr 3, 2024, 7:20 AM EDT

 

Not every quarterback who is good at avoiding sacks in college becomes a good NFL quarterback, but most good NFL quarterbacks are good at avoiding sacks in college. In addition, college pressure to sack rate is best used as a tool to spot potential land mines in the NFL Draft, not to identify the next Patrick Mahomes.

 

The above statements are what I have consistently told myself after digging into pressure to sack rates for the last six months. I encourage readers to reference it if, at any point, they believe I'm making an argument that suggests otherwise.

 

(continues....)

Kinda of like Sam but now with no left tackle and significantly slighter. He won’t take as many sacks as Sam did last year though but only because he won’t last long enough to.

[SkinsFTW]

24 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Kinda of like Sam but now with no left tackle and significantly slighter. He won’t take as many sacks as Sam did last year though but only because he won’t last long enough to.

 

Dude wouldn't last a month in EB's offense. I'm thinking that the new guys can come up with something slightly better lol.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

i don't want him to be either of these two....I want him to be more a combo of Cunningham/Mahomes than Lamar/Hurts. Neither Hurts or Lamar can pass like Daniels. 

He doesn’t have the arm to be Mahomes like.  Not Cunningham.

 

He can be very good.  But not in that style.

[DogofWar1]

Did we ever get a velocity measurement on Jayden or was everyone just too impressed that his balls can go 60 yards through the air?

[bonhommelemec]

Here is another interesting article. 

 

https://www.audacy.com/thefandc/sports/washington-commanders/g-and-d-john-middlekauff-thinks-drake-maye-to-commanders-no-2

 

 

[Panninho]

 

I know JP Finlay is a fan himself and he loves JD and wants us to draft him. But from a journalist, I expect more than that. First of all, he says here that he is not concerned because it's so hard to grade out QBs and then proceeds to tell everyone that JD is an elite prospect and to watch the tape concerning the PTS ratio. What is it now? Hard to project or not?

Secondly, the sample size of Jayden Daniels is so big that there is almost no room for noise. We know that pressure to sack ratio is a stable stat. Pressures in college are the same as in the NFL. It's also a stat that is more independent of your surroundings than other stats. Obviously some get pressured more, others less, some have better receivers others worse. But at the end of the day, we are talking about a ratio here. And over a large enough sample size, your true handling of these situations becomes clearer and clearer. JD is turning 23, is a 5 year starter in college, he has almost 1500 passing attempts. That means he probably played +/- 3000 snaps in college. How much more do you need in order to determine, that this is isn't going to magically change in the league (a thing that has also not happened for anyone else ever who had that issue). Why is it so hard to not aknowledge that this is a legitimate concern even if you love the player.

[seantaylor=god]

I like this breakdown of Maye- the beginning is all the positives and the end is the negatives. He shows some good examples of poor supporting cast ( WRs taking too long to get into routes) and oline issues. But the footwork stuff is definitely ugly. I love the “big game hunting” mindset. He would be a terrible fit if we were running the Shanahan offense but I think his mindset fits with what we are likely trying to do with Kingsbury’s offense.

[seantaylor=god]

1 hour ago, Panninho said:

 

I know JP Finlay is a fan himself and he loves JD and wants us to draft him. But from a journalist, I expect more than that. First of all, he says here that he is not concerned because it's so hard to grade out QBs and then proceeds to tell everyone that JD is an elite prospect and to watch the tape concerning the PTS ratio. What is it now? Hard to project or not?

Secondly, the sample size of Jayden Daniels is so big that there is almost no room for noise. We know that pressure to sack ratio is a stable stat. Pressures in college are the same as in the NFL. It's also a stat that is more independent of your surroundings than other stats. Obviously some get pressured more, others less, some have better receivers others worse. But at the end of the day, we are talking about a ratio here. And over a large enough sample size, your true handling of these situations becomes clearer and clearer. JD is turning 23, is a 5 year starter in college, he has almost 1500 passing attempts. That means he probably played +/- 3000 snaps in college. How much more do you need in order to determine, that this is isn't going to magically change in the league (a thing that has also not happened for anyone else ever who had that issue). Why is it so hard to not aknowledge that this is a legitimate concern even if you love the player.

I think he’s parroting Keim, who talked about PTS rate on his podcast. He said unlike Fields (who had a high PTS rate due to holding the ball too long) Daniels PTS rate was a result of unblocked guys, etc.

He watched every sack he took and it wasn’t due to holding it too long ( according to Keim). 

Keim also said the scouts he talked to weren’t concerned about PTS sack.

 

Not sure I agree but Keim is pretty unbiased in general. 
 

I think it’s concerning for sure.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, mudhog said:

I took Keim's reaction to the guy's tweet to mean that it's really never been a Washington theme to be pursuing JJ.  But that it's always been Daniels or Maye. As an aside, I think DQ's reaction and big smile as he walked away from Maye at his pro day to speak volumes as to HIS preference for QB. Just my take though. DQ gets his input, but I think Kliff and Peters have the lions share of the draft choice for QB.

 

5 points Keim seems to be consistent on.

 

A.  He thinks it would be Daniels over Maye.  Reasoning isn't a leak about what Peters wants but he keeps asking coaches he knows including some he respects as offensive minds.  And its been 100% Daniels > Maye.  He gets the vibe its not neck and neck but a clear peg advantage for Daniels so he's guessing there must be something to that.  Standig has suggested something similar when he probes the same topic.  I know some here say this can't be true or coaches are purposely lying to Keim but that seems silly. Keim isn't stupid.  And he's asking coaches who aren't taking a QB.  He really highlights hard that some of these are really good offensive minds -- he doesn't say whom but am guessing Kyle is one of them.

 

B.  It's between Daniels and Maye with the team.

 

C.  McCarthy he doesn't think so but maybe in a trade down.

 

D.  The team likely has a preference already but hasn't made up their mind

 

E.  This isn't a report, no one is 100% sure what this team does

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Panninho said:

 

I know JP Finlay is a fan himself and he loves JD and wants us to draft him. But from a journalist, I expect more than that. First of all, he says here that he is not concerned because it's so hard to grade out QBs and then proceeds to tell everyone that JD is an elite prospect and to watch the tape concerning the PTS ratio. What is it now? Hard to project or not?

 

 

I don't take Finlay seriously on this.  Him and Tischler are just fans of JD and are fanboys.  Ditto Bram.  Sheehan, too.  But I'll give Sheehan this he's not one of these i love Daniels so I hate Maye people.  He's pretty open about Maye. And he says he has no clue what they are going to do.

 

As for the Maye people that seems to be Grant Paulsen, I think Galdi, Hoffman has been at different stages for all 3, now he seems in love with McCarthy.

 

One person here accused Keim of also being a fanboy and hence he's in a biased way also saying it will be Daniels but IMO that's ridiculous.  Keim never fanboys any prediction about the team.  He's all about what he hears.  Standig to some extent the same thing.  But the only local reporter who seems to have some beat on what this team will do is Keim.  Sometimes Sheehan.  But its rare for anyone else to know anything.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

One person here accused Keim of also being a fanboy and hence he's in a biased way also saying it will be Daniels but IMO that's ridiculous.  Keim never fanboys any prediction about the team.  He's all about what he hears.  Standig to some extent the same thing.  But the only local reporter who seems to have some beat on what this team will do is Keim.  Sometimes Sheehan.  But its rare for anyone else to know anything.

Keim is the farthest thing from a fanboy for sure. He does such a solid job of not releasing rumors, never predicts and seems to offer all info based on what he has gathered from numerous contacts.

 

I was afraid with a regime change that Keim would lose his accesses and contacts. Based on what has occurred so far, I'd say the new regime like the past, see him as very trustworthy. 

[seantaylor=god]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

5 points Keim seems to be consistent on.

 

A.  He thinks it would be Daniels over Maye.  Reasoning isn't a leak about what Peters wants but he keeps asking coaches he knows including some he respects as offensive minds.  And its been 100% Daniels > Maye.  He gets the vibe its not neck and neck but a clear peg advantage for Daniels so he's guessing there must be something to that.  Standig has suggested something similar when he probes the same topic.  I know some here say this can't be true or coaches are purposely lying to Keim but that seems silly. Keim isn't stupid.  And he's asking coaches who aren't taking a QB.  He really highlights hard that some of these are really good offensive minds -- he doesn't say whom but am guessing Kyle is one of them.

 

B.  It's between Daniels and Maye with the team.

 

C.  McCarthy he doesn't think so but maybe in a trade down.

 

D.  The team likely has a preference already but hasn't made up their mind

 

E.  This isn't a report, no one is 100% sure what this team does

Yeah, this is my take as well. 
 

And I bet the coaches he talks to are Shanny folks. 
 

I think it really depends on the offense they want to run, there are schemes that Daniels would run better than Maye (even though I think Maye is better overall).

[Panninho]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't take Finlay seriously on this.  Him and Tischler are just fans of JD and are fanboys.  Ditto Bram.  Sheehan, too.  But I'll give Sheehan this he's not one of these i love Daniels so I hate Maye people.  He's pretty open about Maye. And he says he has no clue what they are going to do.

 

As for the Maye people that seems to be Grant Paulsen, I think Galdi, Hoffman has been at different stages for all 3, now he seems i love with McCarthy.

 

One person here accused Keim of also being a fanboy and hence he's in a biased way also saying it will be Daniels but IMO that's ridiculous.  Keim never fanboys any prediction about the team.  He's all about what he hears.  Standig to some extent the same thing.  But the only local reporter who seems to have some beat on what this team will do is Keim.  Sometimes Sheehan.  But its rare for anyone else to know anything.

 

 

I tend to agree. Maybe you know this but I feel like while Keim always pumped the breaks a little, I thought he was also leaning Ben Johnson at some point (while always stating that they have to go through the process and nothing is fixed and other candidates are also high, etc). Kind of like a "if I had to choose now, I would say Johnson but..." approach. But maybe I am not remembering this correctly.

 

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

5 points Keim seems to be consistent on.

 

A.  He thinks it would be Daniels over Maye.  Reasoning isn't a leak about what Peters wants but he keeps asking coaches he knows including some he respects as offensive minds.  And its been 100% Daniels > Maye.  He gets the vibe its not neck and neck but a clear peg advantage for Daniels so he's guessing there must be something to that.  Standig has suggested something similar when he probes the same topic.  I know some here say this can't be true or coaches are purposely lying to Keim but that seems silly. Keim isn't stupid.  And he's asking coaches who aren't taking a QB.  He really highlights hard that some of these are really good offensive minds -- he doesn't say whom but am guessing Kyle is one of them.

 

B.  It's between Daniels and Maye with the team.

 

C.  McCarthy he doesn't think so but maybe in a trade down.

 

D.  The team likely has a preference already but hasn't made up their mind

 

E.  This isn't a report, no one is 100% sure what this team does

 

What I find interesting here is specifically point A. Because I could understand why you would come to that conclusion when you poll coaches. At the end of the day, most people agree, that JD is a more polished project who would maybe be seeing success a little earlier. Coaches usually focus on short term results more than on long-term results. They are coaching for their job every year. So I could see why coaches would tend lean Daniels. On the other side, I would assume that scouts and GMs might lean more towards Maye because (as also almost everyone agrees), he has the clearly higher ceiling. Which is also why I could see some divide in-house that leads to indecisiveness and the need to go through an extensive process. But if, to get a clearer picture, you poll coaches, you could end up at the point where Keim is.

However, I also agree with you that Keim is very trustworthy, generally not someone who speculates and is careful with what he says. So it should definitely not be dismissed if he says something.

 

I also just saw this clip of JP Finlay.

 

He says that he does not know who they pick at all and from his perspective, noone knows anything. Then he proceeds to say he thinks they are leaning Jayden Daniels and argues this with "the type of player you get there" (subjective and as opposed to what?), "the immediate high ceiling" (whatever that means, guess he means high floor), "how repeatedly DQ and GMAP have talked about how important mobility is" (applies to all 4 QBs, should not be confused with running), "how Josh Harris has said he wants to model his organization like the Ravens...nobody is Lamar Jackson but JD can run" (what does any of that have to do with the organization and JH isn't even involved). All these arguments are constructed and I think they reflect the current media discourse very well. No one knows anything substantial because Adam Peters does not talk and it is apparently very important to him that no one else talks either.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Panninho