Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[JoggingGod]

16 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

THE CHANCES ARE STILL BETTER HIGH. Your odds of finding a decent QB later on are near zero.

[method man]

9 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Trask caught a lot of flak for that game and he definitely deserved a lot of it. You would think that you'd be a little more cautious with the football than he was throwing to unfamiliar players, but nope. 

 

I forgot who it was, but someone made a really good point in either this thread or the draft thread a few months back saying there's no point in drafting a mid round QB because they almost never work out, or turn into stars. I kind of agree with that line of thinking, QB is the one position you don't want to be satisfied with just a starter caliber player, you will always be looking to upgrade from him if he isn't at least a Derek Carr level QB (Carr is my absolute floor for a QB). If you're taking one in the 3rd, you better be damn sure that a bunch of teams ahead of you missed something. I would be okay if we drafted one in the 3rd if the team truly felt that they had a Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott type player that got overlooked in the draft. 

 

I'm really not convinced those players you mentioned in the 2nd-4th are better than Heinicke or Allen (I need to watch Buechele though). My biggest QB crush besides the top two is Trey Lance, he is pretty raw but his tools are very intriguing. He's got that big arm that really raises the ceiling of his potential, and can be a legitimate threat on the ground if needed. 

 

Agreed. The opportunity cost is a potential starter. In this draft, it could be a Z receiver

[Dark Acre]

I had a friend i was gambling with in Reno, craps table.  He put his last $20 of gambling capital on boxcars and he, indeed, threw double-sixes next roll, paying out 35-1.  💩 happens.  Doesn't make him a genius.  NFL history is littered with bad gambles.  The game is relative.  You don't have to be great if everyone else is dysfunctional.  Rivera is in position to build a very good team that only lacks a great QB (but has a competent one).  Then you take a 💩 on boxcars, not when you can't afford the buffet if you bust.

[kingdaddy]

10 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that Andy Reid guy is such a moron for giving up a bunch of draft capital for that Mahomes loser while they already had built a winning team that had just made a playoff run.

 

 

Again, it's the sunk cost fallacy. Since it hasn't worked for some team in the past doesn't change the fact that the 1st round has a way higher hit rate on QBs than any other. And if you build a good team but only have a middling QB you're probably not going anywhere. You MIGHT have a bunch of things go your way and wind up in one Super Bowl, but that's a long shot. And you'll never be there again with that QB or team (Foles, Flacco, Kaep, for example). 

 

I don't get why so many people seem to think it's one or the other. See my response above. KC had a winning team with a top defense and an efficient offense with a decent but not great QB. They just came off of a playoff run and decided to give up big draft capital to move up for a new QB. It could have turned out horribly for them. Nobody doubted the raw talent of Mahomes but he was far from seen as a "sure thing". But they took the chance and I doubt they're upset they did it.

When you think about it, what we are debating is the dilemma many NFL teams have....trade up or draft the QB high or stay patient and keep adding pieces while finding/signing QB's in other ways. Being a stubborn Joe Gibbs guy who lived through the success of the HOGS and the run the ball to set up the pass mentality, you'll have a hard time convincing me that football has changed that much. I'm with you in that I'm starving for a franchise QB...in my lifetime the closest we've come has been Theisman, Rypien and RGlll for a year. We have drafted many QB's in the 1st round only to see them fail....you know the names.  

I love the direction this team has taken by building the defensive line and drafting smart. Signing Fitz is going to work out well in my opinion because he is gonna rally this lockerroom to new heights. The culture is very, very good. Keep adding impact players at positions of need and see what the collective group can accomplish. I've seen too many young QB's drafted only to disappoint...and in many cases because they HAD NO SUPPORTING CAST and were expected to save the franchise with their arm and legs.

I'll bet you Fitz is salivating at what he has in Washington and can't wait to get started. This team and culture is being built right and we're in for a nice run....

[mistertim]

39 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

When you think about it, what we are debating is the dilemma many NFL teams have....trade up or draft the QB high or stay patient and keep adding pieces while finding/signing QB's in other ways. Being a stubborn Joe Gibbs guy who lived through the success of the HOGS and the run the ball to set up the pass mentality, you'll have a hard time convincing me that football has changed that much. I'm with you in that I'm starving for a franchise QB...in my lifetime the closest we've come has been Theisman, Rypien and RGlll for a year. We have drafted many QB's in the 1st round only to see them fail....you know the names.  

I love the direction this team has taken by building the defensive line and drafting smart. Signing Fitz is going to work out well in my opinion because he is gonna rally this lockerroom to new heights. The culture is very, very good. Keep adding impact players at positions of need and see what the collective group can accomplish. I've seen too many young QB's drafted only to disappoint...and in many cases because they HAD NO SUPPORTING CAST and were expected to save the franchise with their arm and legs.

I'll bet you Fitz is salivating at what he has in Washington and can't wait to get started. This team and culture is being built right and we're in for a nice run....

 

Most teams trade up or use a 1st round pick on a QB at some point, because every single NFL team knows that nowadays if you want to be a threat to go all the way over a long period of time, you have to have a top QB. You're incredibly unlikely to find an NFL coach that disagrees with that. Heck, Rivera is an old school defensive guy who loves building the trenches and even he admits that you need to have that QB nowadays. 

 

I can understand the draw of the old days where teams relied on the run game and stout defenses, but it's over. There's just no way around that. Every single thing in the NFL nowadays from the rules to the concepts supports big play passing first offenses that require a top tier passing QB.

 

The team and culture is being built right, but without the biggest piece it won't go far. Or if we do manage another playoff run we're 1) unlikely to actually go all the way and 2) with a 39 year old QB we won't be going back again with the same team. The coaches know that. The FO knows that. Nowadays with contracts, the cap, and FA the way they are your chances of keeping a dominant defensive unit and/or dominant supporting offensive cast around for over a few years is slim to none. 

 

You have to have that QB to be a perennial contender.

[Warhead36]

You need a QB but you can't be desperate and just go for one for the sake of going for one. That's how you end up with the likes of Christian Ponder and Jake Locker being drafted in round 1.

 

You need to be sure you got your guy.

[Die Hard]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You need to be sure you got your guy.

Who drafts any player, any position in any round, and lacks certainty around the pick? 😜

 

The issue isn’t a lack of certainty.

 

The issue is certainty is a seductive illusion.

Edited April 13, 2021 by Die Hard

[Going Commando]

22 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Feels like the Trask stuff is Zampese sharing his opinion (vs a full on smokescreen) and reporters are making educated guesses based on that.  Could be wrong of course.

As for Trask himself - I found McElroy’s point interesting - that his lack of experience and the growth he showed (might mean we’re on the verge of seeing the player he could become.  Those limitations though...

 

I think he's a late bloomer too.  He's an old prospect but still inexperienced and clearly still feeling his way out in game situations.  Learning speed, learning when to live to fight another day or when to attack, when to improvise.

 

I'm not as worried about his lack of speed and agility as most.  That's not a prerequisite of the position for me and I don't mind a statue if he's got functional athleticism in the context of passing from the pocket.  I think he moves around in the pocket well enough to keep his lanes open and he's got enough arm talent to stick bad platform throws with accuracy.  You actually see him make quite a few of these this past season as I thought he was surprisingly aggressive about extending plays from inside the pocket.  And one thing he's not limited by physically is size.  He's a big QB with a rugged frame and huge hands.  It lets him play tough and makes that soft touch and control on his downfield passes possible.  The kid can take a beating and play through pressure, and that's something he actually did this season unlike the other top QB prospects.  He's got a classic NFL QB body.

 

The other thing is, for as slow as he is, he was used as a runner in key situations this past season.  Very surprising to see it in action, but he was often their short yardage go-to on key downs.  Basically he just puts his head down and rhinos the ball forward, gap or no gap, and it was shockingly effective.  He's just big and strong and highly competitive.

 

I was very skeptical and didn't want to like the kid when I first started watching him, but I do in spite of myself.  The SEC championship sold me on him.  This kid is a gamer and he has some aggressive playmaking gene in him.  I don't think he's going to miss many games, and we could certainly use some durability in our QB room.  I think he'll play tough even if our line isn't the best.  I think he's got the arm to make plays against man coverage on the outside, muddy pocket or no, so that'd be a nice field-stretching element to have in an otherwise limited offense.  And I also like that he appears to be undervalued or at least accurately valued, so that we can probably get him with one of our third round picks.

[UK Skins]

That's an interesting point about Trask running. I really like it when players like Brees just plough forward for the 1st down on 3rd/4th and short. You don't need to be a Cam type runner to be effective.

[mistertim]

40 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You need a QB but you can't be desperate and just go for one for the sake of going for one. That's how you end up with the likes of Christian Ponder and Jake Locker being drafted in round 1.

 

You need to be sure you got your guy.

 

Yeah that's true. You don't want to make it a panic move. You have to be smart and make sure your whole (relevant) coaching staff and FO are on board and agree that he's the guy you want. And I have much more faith in RR and our current FO to do that than in the past. That being said, if people are on board, then you make the move as long as it fits within what you're willing to pay (assuming you move up for a guy, as we'd almost certainly have to do in this situation). 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's true. You don't want to make it a panic move. You have to be smart and make sure your whole (relevant) coaching staff and FO are on board and agree that he's the guy you want. And I have much more faith in RR and our current FO to do that than in the past. That being said, if people are on board, then you make the move as long as it fits within what you're willing to pay (assuming you move up for a guy, as we'd almost certainly have to do in this situation). 

Everybody knows this of course, but it doesn’t hurt to reiterate the fact the FO (at least the relevant parties w/in, as you say) need to love the guy.  They’re not going to trade up just because the draft community sees ‘x’ qb as a top 5 guy.

 

Separate note - makes sense the team is targeting LT, not just because it’s a need, but I think we could use the extra help to keep Fitzpatrick upright (as well as preparing for a younger qb at some point).  I don’t mind taking one of the later qbs that have upside as they should have time to develop.  Would be nice to gain an extra pick via a trade back to mitigate spending on said qb.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

From the Athletic

 

 

[actorguy1]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

From the Athletic

 

 

That was part of Standig's interview with Stanford's head coach. He makes Davis sound amazing, but what coach hasn't gushed about their players?

[Skinsinparadise]

I've watched a lot of Trask, got more family ties to the Gators (not including myself) than any other university.

 

Trask does move around.  Trask does run from time to time.  But the dude looks as slow and awkward as you'd expect from a 5.10 40 time QB.  The 2nd clip showcases it well.  It's strange to see him take off from time to time but his less than a half a yard per carry average I think sums it up well.

 

I really worked hard to talk myself into Trask including watching some games recently.  The best I can do is say I can see him as a backup in this league or maybe a low end starter.  Hearing McElroy's faint praise of Trask didn't help my view -- basically calling him a project that has to sit and learn and if he reaches his potential he's Brad Johnson.  But his description of his play mirrored some of things I've observed and commented on.

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

That was part of Standig's interview with Stanford's head coach. He makes Davis sound amazing, but what coach hasn't gushed about their players?

 

I know.  I listened to it as well.  I don't really focus on the praise but the description of the player and their personality.

 

I don't want any of the QBs post top 5.  But if I was forced to pick up the tallest midget in the land so to speak among the next tier it would be Mills. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've watched a lot of Trask, got more family ties to the Gators (not including myself) than any other university.

 

Trask does move around.  Trask does run from time to time.  But the dude looks as slow and awkward as you'd expect from a 5.10 40 time QB.  The 2nd clip showcases it well.  It's strange to see him take off from time to time but his less than a half a yard per carry average I think sums it up well.

 

I really worked hard to talk myself into Trask including watching some games recently.  The best I can do is say I can see him as a backup in this league or maybe a low end starter.  Hearing McElroy's faint praise of Trask didn't help my view -- basically calling him a project that has to sit and learn and if he reaches his potential he's Brad Johnson.  But his description of his play mirrored some of things I've observed and commented on.

 

 

 

 

Trying not to tie things together her but UF Reyes workout and and signing plus Trask being from there and Keim mentioning him by name.  A lot of things seem and I say seem to line up with Trask maybe being the guy they target.  Adding to the fact that Zampese worked there in 2019 kind of puts a semi stamp on it for me.  We just don't know yet though as it has to play out.

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Trying not to tie things together her but UF Reyes workout and and signing plus Trask being from there and Keim mentioning him by name.  A lot of things seem and I say seem to line up with Trask maybe being the guy they target.  Adding to the fact that Zampese worked there in 2019 kind of puts a semi stamp on it for me.  We just don't know yet though as it has to play out.

 

I'd add though thinking about it.

 

Why does the WFT want everyone to know they supposedly like Trask.  Keim is on it again and again and again.  Keim in other interviews has said he's careful about what he shares because his sources are important for him to cultivate and keep.  So whomever his source here is, they are more than cool with Keim sharing it with the rest of the league.  Keim is usually more coy where you have to piece things together especially this far out.

 

Also Keim has said but did not recently repeat it that they'd take him but only if he falls to the third round.  

 

If so feels to me that they'd like him only if its a flier who happens to be there in the third.

 

I'd add the next more plugged in guy to the team from my observation is Standig and especially when it comes to the draft.  Standig's thing is the draft.  Standig is hearing Mills.

 

Personally I hope both of them are wrong and they skip QBs after the first round.  But if they take one especially if its in the third, I won't like it but won't hate it either -- i'd just see it a wild roll of the dice what the heck you never know you might get lucky drill. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

I have a hard time with Mills anywhere above the 4th round to be honest. Tiny amount of game tape, injury history, and what he does show on tape is a guy who will make beautiful throws and just as idiotic ones back to back. Maybe that can be coached out, maybe not. Hard to say with such limited snaps and starts. Certainly some upside but people talking about a 2nd for him? Meh.

[JoggingGod]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've watched a lot of Trask, got more family ties to the Gators (not including myself) than any other university.

 

Trask does move around.  Trask does run from time to time.  But the dude looks as slow and awkward as you'd expect from a 5.10 40 time QB.  The 2nd clip showcases it well.  It's strange to see him take off from time to time but his less than a half a yard per carry average I think sums it up well.

 

I really worked hard to talk myself into Trask including watching some games recently.  The best I can do is say I can see him as a backup in this league or maybe a low end starter.  Hearing McElroy's faint praise of Trask didn't help my view -- basically calling him a project that has to sit and learn and if he reaches his potential he's Brad Johnson.  But his description of his play mirrored some of things I've observed and commented on.

 

 

 

 

 

I know.  I listened to it as well.  I don't really focus on the praise but the description of the player and their personality.

 

I don't want any of the QBs post top 5.  But if I was forced to pick up the tallest midget in the land so to speak among the next tier it would be Mills. 

I can't belive anyone wants Trask like jesus christ

[Skinsinparadise]

So competing rumors remain Mills versus Trask

 

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

After the second round if he’s still there I like Mills.

 

Trask just doesn’t do it for me which probably means we’re grabbing Trask in the first round.

Edited April 13, 2021 by TrancesWithWolves

[Skinsinparadise]

wrong thread

Edited April 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Ball Security]

Not that I wouldn’t mind Jenkins, but you’d have to call Minn if Fields is there at 14.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So competing rumors remain Mills versus Trask

 

 

 

 

Not a huge fan of either but I'd definitely take Mills over Trask. Nether is worth more than a 4th IMO.

 

We hear this stuff every year though, right?

 

"It's no secret that Washington really likes this player"

"No, no, it's no secret that Washington really like this player!"

"No way, my sources say Washington doesn't like either guy, but really like this guy

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Not a huge fan of either but I'd definitely take Mills over Trask. Nether is worth more than a 4th IMO.

 

We hear this stuff every year though, right?

 

"It's no secret that Washington really likes this player"

"No, no, it's no secret that Washington really like this player!"

"No way, my sources say Washington doesn't like either guy, but really like this guy

 

Yeah it could be BS the only reason why I take it seriously is Keim has been eerily on the mark when it comes to FA and the draft over the years.  And Standig isn't bad either on that front.

 

I give Mills the nod over Trask because he moves more like a modern day QB.  He has a bit more zip on his throws.  And while some tout Trask's touch, I actually think Mills puts better touch on his throws than Trask.  But its hard for me to see anything special in Mills.  So I'd pass. 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah it could be BS the only reason why I take it seriously is Keim has been eerily on the mark when it comes to FA and the draft over the years.  And Standig isn't bad either on that front.

 

I give Mills the nod over Trask because he moves more like a modern day QB.  He has a bit more zip on his throws.  And while some tout Trask's touch, I actually think Mills puts better touch on his throws than Trask.  But its hard for me to see anything special in Mills.  So I'd pass. 

This I believe.  We will come out of the draft with a QB drafted no lower than the 3rd round.