Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[DWinzit]

On 2/12/2021 at 7:55 AM, KDawg said:

I don’t think so, no. Lance has better intangibles. Heinicken/Allen would have a major advantage due to familiarity with the system. But Lance is a better athlete and traity QB than both. And he’s smart and a hard worker by all accounts. 
 

But they could, yes.

 

On 2/12/2021 at 7:48 AM, Thinking Skins said:

I don't think it would honestly take that long. Look at the more athletic guys and I don't mean just Newton/Vick/Murray. Look at Hurts, Trubisky, Allen, and the more mobile QBs, even the ones without the playing experience in college. The fact that they can run around and avoid the rush buys them time. The question becomes what are they learning while they're playing. Are they getting better as passers or just becoming running backs who play QB? 

Thanks for answering my Lance questions. I have a had a hard time accepting the idea of moving up high to grab this guy, just doesn't have much experience. If they do make the move at least I know there is chance he can start early in the season and not just sit a year or more. 

[CurseReversed]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree, and that's why I used the word "kicker" as to that last game.  I gave almost a blow by blow take of Trask during the college season.  That last game finished him off for me, i was already leaning against him from what I saw before that. 

 

 

On occasion you see Mac deal with pressure, and I like his footwork and ability to navigate the pocket from that small sample better than I do Trask.  Trask is a tough dude so he can take a hit and isn't scared to get hit but i don't like his footwork with trash at his feet.

 

 

Not to me. 

 

 

I don't really want either one.  But if they took Jones I'd get it.   i've watched some of their games twice.  I've seen Mac play live once but not Trask.  When you see them live its easier IMO to see arm velocity.  I think Mac's arm strength is OK, not great, not bad.  Trask on TV looks similar on that front.

 

Trask will make more wow throws.  But Jones to me is the more consistent thrower as for accuracy all across the field and does so with good anticipation.

 

Don't love Jones though because his arm strength is so so.  He's not fast or a dude that makes plays outside the pocket.  Neither does Trask.  But the main reason why I prefer Jones is his footwork in the pocket, and like I've said about him a ton for months now he's like a pro when it comes to manipulating safeties and defenders with his eyes/body language/fakes.  I watched a couple of Darnold games last week and was amazed how bad he was at doing that from the context of his eyes/starring whereas Mac looked like a polished pro in comparison.

 

I also liked what i read about Mac's personality, high intangibes, comes off more outgoing than some of the stuff I've read about Trask. 

 

I am no expert but I see a lot of the same things when I watch Jones.  He is really smooth at looking off defenders and cycling through reads. He also has a pretty vicious pump fake.

His processing is good, has a very quick delivery, throws with anticipation, and delivers many of his passes with an elite touch both long and short. 

 

Granted he is throwing to wide open guys most of the time, but the touch and accuracy is easy to see. Its special IMO.  It is a shame there are limitation on arm strength but there is still a lot to work with.

 

He is also very smooth in the pocket.  He is not highly mobile but he has a very fast shuffle and is decisive when he moves. This is the biggest difference between him and Trask IMO. 

Jones really stays balanced when he moves and is  looking downfield and can throw with accuracy. From what I see he can throw off platform and on the move with some no-look level stuff

Love these traits transferring to the next level.

 

He has so many skills that are already NFL quality.  If you go back to his first game as a starter he was already doing these things at a high level. Very impressive for a guy who has only played 24 games. What will he look like in 4 years? Drew Brees?  Possibly.

 

Obviously I am pretty impressed with him but I can understand why others are not. There are some things he will never be able to do and that limits him.   I think his floor is very high and ceiling higher then some think.  A very good investment for the WFT. 

[KDawg]

21 minutes ago, CurseReversed said:

I am no expert but I see a lot of the same things when I watch Jones.  He is really smooth at looking off defenders and cycling through reads. He also has a pretty vicious pump fake.

His processing is good, has a very quick delivery, throws with anticipation, and delivers many of his passes with an elite touch both long and short. 

 

Granted he is throwing to wide open guys most of the time, but the touch and accuracy is easy to see. Its special IMO.  It is a shame there are limitation on arm strength but there is still a lot to work with.

 

He is also very smooth in the pocket.  He is not highly mobile but he has a very fast shuffle and is decisive when he moves. This is the biggest difference between him and Trask IMO. 

Jones really stays balanced when he moves and is  looking downfield and can throw with accuracy. From what I see he can throw off platform and on the move with some no-look level stuff

Love these traits transferring to the next level.

 

He has so many skills that are already NFL quality.  If you go back to his first game as a starter he was already doing these things at a high level. Very impressive for a guy who has only played 24 games. What will he look like in 4 years? Drew Brees?  Possibly.

 

Obviously I am pretty impressed with him but I can understand why others are not. There are some things he will never be able to do and that limits him.   I think his floor is very high and ceiling higher then some think.  A very good investment for the WFT. 

I think Mac’s floor is low (comparatively to the top 4 QBs) and his ceiling is Cousins ish. So he’s an intriguing prospect.

Edited February 13, 2021 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I think Mac’s floor is low (comparatively to the top 4 QBs) and his ceiling is Cousins ish. So he’s an intriguing prospect.

That’s pretty much how I see him. I compared his ceiling myself to Kirk before. They both in my view have a key attribute in common. That is, selling play action well.

[mhd24]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

That’s pretty much how I see him. I compared his ceiling myself to Kirk before. They both in my view have a key attribute in common. That is, selling play action well.

 

 

I think Kirk is a better athlete (or at least in his athletic prime) than Mac is.

[Warhead36]

I'm not even sure Mac Jones is as good as Kirk Cousins. For all his faults Cousins puts up big #s and is generally around top 10-12 in the league in statistics. I doubt Jones will ever be better than league average.

[88Comrade2000]

Watson us going nowhere in 21.  Texans will not trade him. Watson will then either come back and play or if he’s set on leaving, will sit out the year.

 

If we find our long term starter this year; it will be in the draft.

[CurseReversed]

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Mac’s floor is low (comparatively to the top 4 QBs) and his ceiling is Cousins ish. So he’s an intriguing prospect.

I agree those top 4 guys can all beat you with their legs and arm and that makes your floor pretty high.  Fields and Lance for example, could come in and run a relatively simplistic offense and still be highly effective.

 

As far as Jones and Cousins, yea they are good comparison.  Jones has touch on his ball that I never really saw from Cousins and his short passing game is especially impressive.  Better intangibles too, leadership decision making.  But we will see.  They are similar.  Jones is similar to a lot of guys who didn't even make it to Cousins level, so I can understand the doubt.

[KDawg]

31 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not even sure Mac Jones is as good as Kirk Cousins. For all his faults Cousins puts up big #s and is generally around top 10-12 in the league in statistics. I doubt Jones will ever be better than league average.

You have to keep in mind what projections are.

 

They are a comparison to a pro who exists. They aren't saying they are that pro.

 

People talk floor and ceilings to demonstrate the variability.

 

Cousins = better athlete, Mac = more accurate. Both are great in play action and have shown they can make some positives occur when they are surrounded by talent.

 

So when people say the ceiling is Cousins, that means they don't think he's really going to surpass him or if he does it won't be a wild difference.

 

It's not saying he IS Cousins or as good as Cousins. That's where the floor comes in.

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not even sure Mac Jones is as good as Kirk Cousins. For all his faults Cousins puts up big #s and is generally around top 10-12 in the league in statistics. I doubt Jones will ever be better than league average.

 

I didn't say he was as good as Kirk.  Ceiling is Kirk.   My take on Jones is I wouldn't be stunned if he ends up as good as Kirk albeit I'd be surprised if he did.  I also wouldn't be surprised if he's a Keenum/Colt journeyman back type.  I'd be surprised if he's a total bust.  I'll give him that I think he will be at least a backup in this league.

 

 

44 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

I think Kirk is a better athlete (or at least in his athletic prime) than Mac is.

 

Probably so but not by a mile. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

 

Thanks for answering my Lance questions. I have a had a hard time accepting the idea of moving up high to grab this guy, just doesn't have much experience. If they do make the move at least I know there is chance he can start early in the season and not just sit a year or more. 

I'm not in love with Lance just because of his experience but it is soothing to set that others who were athletic like him were able to come in and play well immediately. 

 

I still think I'd like Mond, Trask, Newmam or Jones if any is available in rounds 3 or 4. What i want more is a mlb and another WR

[JoggingGod]

Just avoid all the QBs after the top 4. They’re  not worth drafting in our stance because they’re either physically limited or are multi year projects. They need to aggressively work on a trade up for one of the top guys.

[Jericho]

7 hours ago, skinzplay said:

Those alphabet networks and websites drive up the value of players who are likely to be marginal at the pro level. Darnold, J. Russell, Haskins.....the list goes on. Good FOs don't reach for the low-hanging fruit. Look at ol' Brady. Alphabet soup had nothing to say about him back in 2000. Only the Pats and Matt Cavanaugh wanted him. The Ravens have had a damn good scouting department, but ended up taking Chris Redmond in the third instead of Brady, as Cavanaugh wanted.

 

There's definitely truth to this. One trade (Stafford) occurs where the return is higher than expected an all of a sudden it's passed off as fact that every QB's value has now increased 250%. Except no one else is buying at those prices. We'll see what a lot of these QBs true value is once the dust settles. I think most will have a much lower value than some of these "claims".

[Skinsinparadise]

Listening to Keim again this time on Standig's podcast.  I tend to trust there is something to it when he repeats a point so here are a few he's said now multiple times:

 

A.  If they don't land a QB don't be surprised if they trade down to build 2022 draft capital

B.  He'd be surprised if they traded big capital to trade up in the draft

C.  He thinks they will (sounds like more likely in 2022) trade one of their D lineman for a pick.  They know they can't keep them all of them at the salaries they'd command over time. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

@wit33

 

I know you don't challenge this point anymore but in case you are curious, here is another long to the fire on the Kirk thing.  To add to Mike Jones saying they could have gotten a first for Kirk and Jay suggesting they could have good serious trade capital for Kirk versus what they got -- Keim agreed, he goes after the 2016 season some people there thought they had to trade him but Bruce thought he could change his mind where he'd accept his offer.

[DWinzit]

40 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm not in love with Lance just because of his experience but it is soothing to set that others who were athletic like him were able to come in and play well immediately. 

 

I still think I'd like Mond, Trask, Newmam or Jones if any is available in rounds 3 or 4. What i want more is a mlb and another WR

I am with you but wanted to feel out others on how play ready Lance would be. It scares me to spend a ton of capital to move u and get a guy with limited experience to play QB then have him sit a year or more. It is not my style.

I am in favor of Newman in the 4th. Trask or Mond in the 4th or 5th. If Jones was where he belongs at the end of the first or beginning of the 2nd I would be cool with that.

 

I see MLB, WR, DB's and OT as the top current needs. I figure MLB, 1 WR and 1 DB will be the first FA priorities. Then double up on then plus nail down an OT in the draft, plus ad a all around TE, so I'd rather not move up at all for a QB. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by DWinzit

[bearrock]

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

@wit33

 

I know you don't challenge this point anymore but in case you are curious, here is another long to the fire on the Kirk thing.  To add to Mike Jones saying they could have gotten a first for Kirk and Jay suggesting they could have good serious trade capital for Kirk versus what they got -- Keim agreed, he goes after the 2016 season some people there thought they had to trade him but Bruce thought he could change his mind where he'd accept his offer.

 

It was beyond idiotic to let Cousins play on that second tag.  If didn't want to sign a long deal coming off the first tag, they should've traded him to the highest bidder.  Same thing with refusing to trade Trent Williams after the holdout.  At some point, Bruce Allen was making decisions with his ego, not his brains.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Keim again this time on Standig's podcast.  I tend to trust there is something to it when he repeats a point so here are a few he's said now multiple times:

 

A.  If they don't land a QB don't be surprised if they trade down to build 2022 draft capital

B.  He'd be surprised if they traded big capital to trade up in the draft

C.  He thinks they will (sounds like more likely in 2022) trade one of their D lineman for a pick.  They know they can't keep them all of them at the salaries they'd command over time. 

IF they don't trade for a vet QB or sign one during FA, if a QB falls to them at #19 (Jones or if one of the highly rated 4) then I am all for them trading down for more 2022 draft capital but there are no decent QBs that I am hearing about that will be available in the 2022 NFL draft.  Dak may be an option in 2022 IF the Boys tagged him this year and doesn't work out a LTD with them.  

Edited February 13, 2021 by RWJ

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

It was beyond idiotic to let Cousins play on that second tag.  If didn't want to sign a long deal coming off the first tag, they should've traded him to the highest bidder.  Same thing with refusing to trade Trent Williams after the holdout.  At some point, Bruce Allen was making decisions with his ego, not his brains.

 

I wasn't in favor of trading him at the time but also I had no idea what apparently most in that building knew which was he wasn't coming back.  If I had that feeling, I'd trade him especially with good offers they apparently had.  I recall two seperate stories surfaced back then one which was that Scot didn't want to tag him the 2nd time and wanted to trade him and another that Jay wanted to trade him.  Apparently both stories might have been true.

 

As for Trent some reporters thought they could have gotten a first, some thought a 2nd and change (2nd or third or 2nd 4th) but instead Bruce let it ride.  The kicker for me was Joel Corry saying as an agent he had a similar experience with a player he represented when Bruce was in charge in Tampa.  That player basically had to rip the HC to force a trade more or less.  

 

Lol, at least Bruce is gone now.  It is what it is.   Hopefully the new FO crop is better.  They are off to a good start but will see about this off season. 

11 minutes ago, RWJ said:

IF they don't trade for a vet QB or sign one during FA, if a QB falls to them at #19 (Jones or if one of the highly rated 4) then I am all for them trading down for more 2022 draft capital but there are no decent QBs that I am hearing about that will be available in the 2022 NFL draft.  Dak may be an option IF the Boys only if he's tagged and doesn't work out a LTD with them.  

 

I am ok with anything that do except for trading for Darnold or taking Trask at 19.      

Edited February 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Jericho]

I think the problem some having in evaluating QBs is they're not looking at the difference in value. For example, if we ranked every QB in the NFL from 1 to whatever, the difference between the best QB (let's say Mahomes) and number 11 (let's say Carr as he finished 11th in QBR in 2020) is substantial. We all know Mahomes is elite and Carr is not. The difference between 11 (Carr) and 21 (let's say Mitchell Trubisky as he finished 21st in QBR in 2020) is decent sized. Smaller than the gap between Mahomes and Carr, but still a decent gap. The difference between 21 (Trubisky) and 31 (By QBR its actually Nick Mullens who I didn't realize took enough snaps to qualify, though Cam Newton was 30 and Nick Foles was 32 if you're looking for bigger names to compare to) is not that much. So the differences keep getting smaller. And we also have to acknowledge that there's some variance in performance from year to year. So a player that was 30th one year, may be 23rd the next. Values are not stagnant.

 

This is somewhat like a bell curve. On the extremes, differences can be big, in the middle not so much. Which is a roundabout way of saying team shouldn't be making huge moves to improve from 30th to 20th. They should be making big moves to improve from 20 to 10 or from 10 to top 3. Otherwise, it's just like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. Taking actions solely for the appearance of doing something that accomplishes nothing.

 

With that in mind, here's a look at the possible "value" of the potential QBs available:

 

1) Sam Darnold - He was dead last in QBR in 2020 among qualifiers (33 QBs total). 25th/30 in 2019. 28th/33 in 2018. That's bad. I'm not suggesting QBR is the end all be all of QB evaluation (it's not). But it can be used as a decent summary of a player's year. Darnold is has been bottom shelf for 3 years. There's no denying that. He's never been good. Now if you want to argue he still was upside (he does) and could be turned around (maybe), I could get on board. But here's the reality. His contract is terrible. He has one year left on his rookie deal. There is a team option for an additional year of about $25 million. The decision on the option must be made by early May 2021. Or in other words, way before the season starts. The option becomes fully guaranteed the minute you exercise it. If you do so, you're committing around $30 million fully guaranteed to Darnold the next two years. Oh, and did I mention he's never been good? If Darnold could be signed without compensation, that's one thing. But how much do you want to give up for that right? That's the problem. Darnold is a reasonably decent rehab type QB. But given his contract situation, you're essentially buying one year of a player that's never been good. How much do you really want to give up for that?

 

2) Marcus Mariota - Mariota was an unrestricted free agent in 2019. Not a single NFL team was willing to give him a starting job. He signed with the Raiders to be a back-up (though I suspect Mariota hoped he could unseat Carr, a player the Raiders annually seem to be disappointed in. More on that later). Mariota took no significant number of snaps in 2020. All of a sudden some what to push the idea the that Mariota's value has skyrocketed. Why? He didn't get enough snaps to qualify for QBR in 2020 (back-up) or 2019 (injured). In 2018 he was 20/33. In 2017 13/30. in 2016 he was also 13/30. In 2015 he was 23/33. So he has had good years (2016 and 2017), but also bad years. And he's been very injury prone.  Like Darnold, his contract isn't great either. It's one year and about $20 million if you start him (due to incentives, though he could always get hurt and not earn all of them). Because he was once decent, I can see hoping he recaptures that form. But again, at what value? Paying $20 million and draft capital for one year of a guy that hasn't been good in 4 years is a tough ask.

 

3) Derek Carr - Mr. Jekyll and Hyde. Ever hear of the idiom buy low and sell high? Carr finished 11th/33 in QBR in 2020. And 10th/30 in 2019. But 27th/33 in 2018. And 20th/30 in 2017. But he was good before that. 16th/30 in 2016. But then bad again as 30th/33 in 2015. And 27th/30 in 2014. Basically if you're getting good Derek Carr, he's a middle of the road starter. If you're getting bad Derek Carr, he's not really better than a lot of the flotsam and jetsam bouncing around the league. Now maybe you can talk yourself into the idea that Carr has turned some corner and will be good from now on. Or maybe you're trying to buy Carr at his peak value and you're getting a guy that might be no better than other options. Again, how much do you really want to give up for that? Carr is better than the least two options. That is true. However, for comparison, here are Alex Smith's ranks (pre-Washington) those same years: 2014 (19/30), 2015 (12/33), 2016 (10/30), 2017 (8/30). And remember Washington only gave up a 3rd rounder and a player for Alex Smith.

 

Just something to think about.

 

 

[Fresh8686]

It’s too early to know what 2022’s Qb class will look like for either the draft or with Vets available through trade. 
 

Our biggest trade pieces are our D-line so it makes sense to time your window with the period where you have to either re-sign them or move on. It is also realistic to see 2022 or 2023, rather than this up-coming 2021 as our more realist shot for a Super Bowl with this current group. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Est.1974]

Day three pick and a revised contract for Mariota seems the current favourite.

[DWinzit]

8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Day three pick and a revised contract for Mariota seems the current favourite.

Agreed! I would be in on that.

 

And if anyone offers 2 seconds for Wentz they best take it and run....that's highway robbery

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Day three pick and a revised contract for Mariota seems the current favourite.

 

It would be for me.

 

As for value point that some have made.  If you are getting any QB cheapish clearly the idea is to try to rehab said player and hope for the best.  I don't think that's lost on anyone.  I like Mariota but i like him from the context of shopping for fast food.  If we are going cheap and its between McDonalds, Burger King and Wendys what do you choose?  If I choose Wendys its not because the cuisine is top rate.  But if i am looking to spend $10 on a meal, I am not arguing that said meal is fine dining. . I am doing apples to apples fast food comparisons. 

 

Reason why its Mariota to me is because at least he has a season or two with real flashes and even took his team once to the playoffs.  And any QB who can run 4.5 -- that's special speed for that spot.  That's faster than Russell Wilson and most QBs in the league who are considered mobile.   One of the beat guys wrote (can't recall whom) that one NFL observer told them that the Titans didn't exploit his mobility as much as they should.  Is that true or not?  You got me.   But there is some clay potentially to work with Mariota that i don't see the same way for example with Darnold. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise