Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Burgundy Yoda]

41 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

One thing that scares me about Mac Jones is his reliance on Smith. Dude had 117 receptions this year. The next guy had 55. That's more than twice as many catches going to his number 1 vs the next guy. And this is Alabama, not Duke or UNC so the number 2 is a good guy. How many of those balls are forced? How many were just great catches? How many were because he was just open.

 

In contrast, Mond's top three guys had 46, 43 and 29 catches. Newman's guys had 73, 66 and 35. That doesn't mean they can read a defense but it gives me hope that he can come off the number one and go somewhere else when need be. 

 

I really wonder how much of Jones's highlight reel is him going to Smith. 

Yeah it was a pretty heavy reliance. 30/40/50 actually, with 30% of his targets, 40% of his yards, 50% of his touchdowns going to Smith.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Est.1974]

I think there is a good chance that the Raiders would release Mariota before free agency. No way they want that contract, as well as Carr’s, on the books. Day 3 pick to secure his rights if we are very interested in giving him a serious look. Got to rip his current contract up though.

[Skinsinparadise]

I posted this elsehwere but it works here, too. 

 

I'll add one more thing to the Sheehan/Jay interview.  It was funny how Jay joked about hey the media draft dudes gave them an A for the 2019 draft implying that Dan felt good about himself that he might the right move.  Jay basically echoed (he implied it instead of outright saying it) the same thing there that other personnel/coaches have joked about which is the media draft geeks are entertainment, but the FO's don't take them seriously.  Mel Kiper, Matt Miller or name that dude isn't a professional evaluator. 

 

On the Haskins thread back at the time, I recall multiple people arguing with some of us about Dan taking Haskins being justified and his draft status being justified because of where he landed in mock drafts.   Well, I'll just say, Dan thinks the same way you guys did.  If he has a man crush on a player and Bucky Brooks or Todd McShay or name that media talking head agrees with him, than that's enough to justify his pick regardless of what his scouts think.  Personally I thought that was wild then and even wilder now to hear Jay recount Dan's process on it. 

 

The way Jay recounts that story, I'd put money it wasn't the first time that Dan man crushed on a player in the draft and cited some dude on ESPN or whereever to justify it.  And for those who backed Dan on his reading of Haskins based on your own readings of mock drafts, you might think twice about that in the future after listening to that podcast. 

 

Clearly, that's not how to pick players.  If these mock drafters were football evaluator gods they'd been working now in the NFL.  I enjoy reading a mock as much as anyone here but its for entertainment purposes not gospel.  If those dudes were the be all and end all, why bother with a FO or scouting staff at all?  Just go through Kipers top 100, or Brugler, or name your favorite draft geek and pick out your board that way.   You'd save millions on scouting.  Just subscribe to ESPN Insider, watch Path to the Draft, and you are set for the draft, nothing else needed. 

 

Clearly Dan does do just that or something like that from time to time, sadly. 

 

 

 

One longtime NFL executive opined to ESPN's Jets reporter Rich Cimini that he could envision a low first-round or high second-round pick being shipped for Darnold, who enters the final year of his rookie contract, with a decision on his huge fully-guaranteed fifth-year option (2022) due by May 3.

 

2. Mariota's flex: Last week, the possibility of Marcus Mariota as a Patriot was explored, and here's more: With the projected cost to acquire him (later-round pick) and his salary ($10.6 million) reasonable, it would mean New England has flexibility to add another QB should the opportunity present itself later in the offseason (e.g. Garoppolo or a draft pick). But at least initially, Mariota would provide a combination of NFL experience (61 starts), a chance for a functional passing game, and potential high upside as the Patriots start to use their abundant cap space to put some important pieces in place around the QB spot. I'm warming up to the Mariota idea as a strong Plan B if Garoppolo isn't initially available.

 

3. QB landscape: ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay projected five quarterbacks being selected in the first 12 picks of his latest mock draft, which created a scenario for the QB-needy Patriots to snare a front seven defender at No. 15. On the First Draft podcast, McShay and fellow analyst Mel Kiper Jr. opined there are six signal-callers who project as possible future starters -- with Florida's Kyle Trask as the sixth and Wake Forest's Jamie Newman as a possible wild card -- and a notable drop off after that to backup types.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

2. Mariota's flex: Last week, the possibility of Marcus Mariota as a Patriot was explored, and here's more: With the projected cost to acquire him (later-round pick) and his salary ($10.6 million) reasonable, it would mean New England has flexibility to add another QB should the opportunity present itself later in the offseason (e.g. Garoppolo or a draft pick). But at least initially, Mariota would provide a combination of NFL experience (61 starts), a chance for a functional passing game, and potential high upside as the Patriots start to use their abundant cap space to put some important pieces in place around the QB spot. I'm warming up to the Mariota idea as a strong Plan B if Garoppolo isn't initially available.

the issue seems to be that the 10mil essentially becomes nearer 20mil if he’s starting, based on whatever incentives he’s got in that deal.

[markmills67]

10 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

the issue seems to be that the 10mil essentially becomes nearer 20mil if he’s starting, based on whatever incentives he’s got in that deal.

Personally I wouldn't sign Mariota, if he is the one we are supposed to be going for then I would rather just go with Heinicke and add some pieces to the offense via the Draft, and go Defense via free agency. 

[actorguy1]

16 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

the issue seems to be that the 10mil essentially becomes nearer 20mil if he’s starting, based on whatever incentives he’s got in that deal.

To get to the full 20 million, he not only has to start a certain number of games, but they also have to make the playoffs and get all the way to the Super Bowl. Without the playoffs its closer to 15 million. For 15 million and a 5th round pick i am willing to give it a shot. 

[Koolblue13]

We owe a ton to the Eagles for essentially throwing a giant bucket of ice water on this super hot QB market.

 

5 firsts for a QB? 2 1rsts for David Carr? (who I like, but not at that cost), it's been insane lately.

 

There is no way IMO to trade up for a top 4 QB, because you're trading past about 8-10 teams with better picks that also need a QB to do it and if you miss, that's years that you've hurt your team.

Just now, actorguy1 said:

To get to the full 20 million, he not only has to start a certain number of games, but they also have to make the playoffs and get all the way to the Super Bowl. Without the playoffs its closer to 15 million. For 15 million and a 5th round pick i am willing to give it a shot. 

Absolutely. If he can beat out Heinicke and Allen and lead us into a legit playoff run, I throw 20 million at him easy.

[Est.1974]

5 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

To get to the full 20 million, he not only has to start a certain number of games, but they also have to make the playoffs and get all the way to the Super Bowl. Without the playoffs its closer to 15 million. For 15 million and a 5th round pick i am willing to give it a shot. 

I’d give it a shot for 7/8mil and a 5th.

[Koolblue13]

I'd actually give a pretty great conditional pick for Mariota. That's really the perfect gamble. If he takes over and leads us deep into the playoffs and is legit, that's invaluable. That's worth a 1rst and well over $20 million a year, but the gamble? I'm not giving that up before the play. 

[TheShredder]

8 hours ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Philly thought they could pull a fast one and extract a first rounder for a guy coming off an abomination of year and with a massive contract.

I'm counting the days until PHI ships the Wentzer for a bag of chips.

[DWinzit]

If they were trading for Mariota there would probably be a one or two year extension agreed on.

That would both lower this years cap hit and know he will be here for at lest one more year.

IMO he is better an definite upgrade to Allen.

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We owe a ton to the Eagles for essentially throwing a giant bucket of ice water on this super hot QB market.

 

 

Good point the Eagles getting greedy might have slowed things down as for the market getting out of hand.  Thankfully, no team gave a bananas like offer, though I'll say two 2nd rounders for Wentz if that's truly what Indy offered is a generous offer considering his albatross of a contract.  The kicker to me about Wentz is his apparent diva attitude behind the scenes according to some sources -- seems RG3 like.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TheShredder]

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We owe a ton to the Eagles for essentially throwing a giant bucket of ice water on this super hot QB market.

They stomped on the gas like geniuses thinking they knew more than anyone else and their foot went through the floor.  Now they're going downhill on fire. I wouldn't turn my hose on to put that fire out.  But i get what you're saying.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Good point the Eagles getting greedy might have slowed things down.  Thankfully, no team gave a bananas like offer, though I'll say two 2nd rounders for Wentz if that's truly what Indy offered is a generous offer considering his albatross of a contract.  The kicker to me about Wentz is his apparent diva attitude behind the scenes according to some sources -- seems RG3 like.

2 2nds from the obvious front runner for the player was huge for us and every other QB thirsty team on the ledge trying to jump and we owe them for that. 

[TheShredder]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

2 2nds from the obvious front runner for the player was huge for us and every other QB thirsty team on the ledge trying to jump and we owe them for that. 

I'd give'em one these.

And point my dog at them.

Edited February 14, 2021 by TheShredder

[Darrell Green Fan]

Here is my issue with trading for Mariotta.  As he will probably win the battle in camp as he is more experienced we will give up picks (someone suggested a really good player in Settle as well) for a guy who has proven to not be good enough. How can we find out what they have in Heinike if MM wins the job as I would expect him to?  MM will get them a few more wins than last year, what does that accomplish exactly? We give up picks and possibly a good player to go 9-7,  still don't know about Taylor and still don't have the long term solution.   

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Here is my issue with trading for Mariotta.  As he will probably win the battle in camp as he is more experienced we will give up picks (someone suggested a really good player in Settle as well) for a guy who has proven to not be good enough. How can we find out what they have in Heinike if MM wins the job as I would expect him to?  MM will get them a few more wins than last year, what does that accomplish exactly? We give up picks and possibly a good player to go 9-7,  still don't know about Taylor and still don't have the long term solution.   

 

Not sure where "picks" as opposed to pick along with Settle is going for a package for Mariota is coming from?  I'd guess a third rounder and just that tops. 

 

If Mariota beat Heinicke in training camp especially considering Heinicke is more versed in the system, that's fine.  Heinicke is about to turn 28.  He's not on some slow burn give him time program.   And neither is Mariota. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is some dude on twitter who combines rumors he's read from different reporters.  I've seen the Pats potential interest in Mariota but haven't seen the front runners angle. 

 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Darrell Green Fan]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure where "picks" as opposed to pick along with Settle is going for a package for Mariota is coming from?  I'd guess a third rounder and just that tops. 

 

If Mariota beat Heinicke in training camp especially considering Heinicke is more versed in the system, that's fine.  Heinicke is about to turn 28.  He's not on some slow burn give him time program.   And neither is Mariota. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is some dude on twitter who combines rumors he's read from different reporters.  I've seen the Pats potential interest in Mariota but haven't seen the front runners angle. 

 

 

 

 Heinkeke has thrown fewer than 100 passes in the NFL where MM has started for years. To say we know the same about 2 at this point in time is nonsense.  3rd round picks are damned valuable, they can provide all sorts of possible solutions.  

Edited February 14, 2021 by Darrell Green Fan

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Trading a 5th for Mariota and keeping him on a new 2-3 year safe deal would be ideal. Because it still allows you to trade 19 and other picks should Lance fall down the boards enough to trade up. Just my $.02 and with Mariota and Lance you are set short and long term. And have HEINECKE as a backup to either one getting hurt or not being very good in 2021

 

And ... if no QB in the draft falls to a place you are comfortable with, trade back from #19 or take an offensive linemen or WR there that can elevate the offense this and into the future but you at least have another option with past pedigree and blue chip talent that could be reborn in DC. And if he falters, and Heinecke also isn't good, then you look to next year for that QB and spent a year building the team through FA and draft without losing capital on a QB.

Edited February 14, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Warhead36]

A 5th for Mariota is fine. I think that's what we gave up for Kyle Allen last year.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

A 5th for Mariota is fine. I think that's what we gave up for Kyle Allen last year.

 Even if it’s a 3rd. Or a 5th and conditional 2022 higher pick. It’s a low risk investment. Mariota was the #2 pick. He’s an athlete. And he’s a bit older now having sat in a couple different situations. I could see him coming in and remaking his career here. And if he doesn’t? He’s probably gonna give you solid numbers to compete which is good enough as you build the team. Low risk high reward trade IMO. 

 

And as I said a couple posts above, trading for Mariota only really solidifies your QB situation both short AND long term.

 

Short term: He competes with Heinecke, has blue chip talent and could find a spark and become a legit QB. Or, he's what he was in Tennessee which is average-ish, which honestly is all that Smith was this year for us, and it's good enough to win with this defense and buys you time to find the future QB.

 

Long-term: You either strike gold and he becomes a pro-bowl QB here and gets extended with no real surrendering of draft capital, which is crticial in continuing to build the strengths of this team. If he is just average, you still keep the rookie QB option on the table. What if Lance falls to #12 or #13 and you can move up from #19 to take Lance and only sacrifice your 2nd or the 2022 1st? You get Mariota as your average QB while Lance sits for a year or even two and gets up to speed. And your draft capital for such an investment is still a 1sts, 2nd and 5th? Sign me up.

Edited February 14, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[HigSkin]

Mariota (27) is actually close to the same age or a few months younger then Heinicke.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by HigSkin

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Mariota 2016 is his ceiling, IMO.

 

3426 yards, 26 TD, 9 INts, 61% completion ... 60 rushes, 350 yards, 2 TDs

 

2017 and 2018 were baaaaad. But before he got hurt in 2019 in Tennessee he had decent numbers, albeit pretty low (200 YPG) ...

 

 

[heyholetsgogrant]

53 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure where "picks" as opposed to pick along with Settle is going for a package for Mariota is coming from?  I'd guess a third rounder and just that tops. 

 

If Mariota beat Heinicke in training camp especially considering Heinicke is more versed in the system, that's fine.  Heinicke is about to turn 28.  He's not on some slow burn give him time program.   And neither is Mariota. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is some dude on twitter who combines rumors he's read from different reporters.  I've seen the Pats potential interest in Mariota but haven't seen the front runners angle. 

 

 

 

I could see the patriots overpaying and being desperate for a QB after what happened after Brady left.  Mariota shouldn’t fetch more than a 4th, but I could see as high as a 2nd with teams bidding.

Edited February 14, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[profusion]

Mariota's injury history is a concern for me. Plus, he's just not been that great in the pros. 

 

I'm not that enamored with any of the QB options this offseason. It wouldn't bother me if they applied a band-aid for 2021 and focused elsewhere.