2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Skinsinparadise at this stage these guys are putting down what they're hearing. The mocks closest to the draft are typically based on intel. So not saying Kiper is right on those guys in the 2nd, but I'm sure he's hearing from some insiders that these guys are R2-3 types. There are always several players who sneak into the 2nd and 3rd that make you go "huh?" ... sometimes it makes sense and pans out (Gibson) and sometimes it's totally bizarre (Asiasi and the VT TE to NE in the 3rd last year when most mocks had them in R5-7)

[mistertim]

Mills at 51 sounds high to me. He's got some decent tools but he's super raw and reminds me a lot of a less experienced Daniel Jones. 

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@Skinsinparadise at this stage these guys are putting down what they're hearing. The mocks closest to the draft are typically based on intel. So not saying Kiper is right on those guys in the 2nd, but I'm sure he's hearing from some insiders that these guys are R2-3 types. There are always several players who sneak into the 2nd and 3rd that make you go "huh?" ... sometimes it makes sense and pans out (Gibson) and sometimes it's totally bizarre (Asiasi and the VT TE to NE in the 3rd last year when most mocks had them in R5-7)

 

Agree that the bigger name mock drafters rely a lot on what they hear or so they say.  The most accurate mocks tend to happen closer to the end -- that's true, too.

 

I far from always agree with McShay-Kiper but I love their podcasts.  They are really entertaining for me.  I often will hear a tidbit or two that I didn't know about prospects -- they get some inside information that otherwise I don't have access to.  They got good banter and some of it is funny.  McShay on the podcasts loves to accuse Kiper of usurping some of his favorite less hearlded prospects that he's touted first by putting them up higher in his (Kipers) own mocks so he can goad McShay later on the draft broadcasts that he rated him higher. 

 

volsmet used to goad me that I stole Chase Young from him, he mentioned him before I did but I was so hyped about him for so long that I sort of usurped him as my guy.   Same thing I joked recently about Zaven Collins, I liked him early but others really own him more as a prospect because some are blown away by him.  I like Zaven but I am not blown away by him.  So even though I was early on him, he wouldn't be one of my guys anymore.  Anyway it seems like Kiper-McShay make a sport of this type of stuff and talk about it on their podcasts.

 

Anthony Schwartz to me is a great example of it.  I pushed Schwartz awhile ago as a later round flier in the draft, maybe 4th?.  I know the prospect.  But putting him that high up in the draft seems ridiculous.  Kiper making him a high 2nd rounder ahead of Rondale Moore seems insane to me.  But heck on draft night when some team takes Schwartz perhaps higher than people think -- Kiper could then say hey I had him in the top half of the 2nd round.  

 

 

 

 

 

These next two sections are singular testing results that best project future success for certain positions. That can be quite a task, finding a single athletic test that has the highest hit rate among the top performers, but two fit the bill. I know career starts might not be the best way to exhibit success, but it does show a combination of trust and longevity teams have in a player.

First is the 20-yard shuttle for offensive linemen.

 

Drafted	Name	Shuttle Time
Round 1	Nate Solder	4.34
Round 1	Anthony Castonzo	4.40
Round 1	Andre Dillard	4.40
Round 1	Eric Fisher	4.44
Round 1	Jake Matthews	4.47
Round 2	Joel Bitonio	4.44
Round 2	Xavier Su'a-Filo	4.44
Round 2	Jake Fisher	4.33
Round 2	Ali Marpet	4.47
Round 2	Jason Spriggs	4.44
Round 2	James Daniels	4.40
Round 3	Joseph Noteboom	4.44
Round 5	John Urschel	4.47
Round 5	Joe Haeg	4.47
Round 6	Jason Kelce	4.14
Round 6	David Quessenberry	4.45
Round 6	Jeff Baca	4.44
Round 6	Matt Paradis	4.46
Round 6	Chase Roullier	4.47
Round 7	Charles Leno.	4.40
UDFA	Ryan Groy	4.47
UDFA	Gabe Ikard	4.37
UDFA	Jake Brendel	4.27

 

These are the top Combine testers from 2010 to 2019. In that span, over 300 OL prospects completed a 20-yard shuttle. The top 23 are listed above. As you can see, 20 of the 23 were drafted, and those drafted players went on to start 80+% of their career games. Taking it one step further, the eight Day 3 OL started 85.47% of their career games and includes gems like Jason Kelce, Matt Paradis and Charles Leno.

It is not a leap to say that if an offensive lineman at this year’s Combine hits that 4.47 short shuttle, he should be a target player. This type of success is extremely impressive. Again, that result places them in the top percentiles of their position, but it also results in success.

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[illone]

9 hours ago, samy316 said:

Why?  You do realize we have maybe the worst QB situation in the league save for Chicago....

 

For me it's more about cost and opportunity.  I'd rather stick to BPA this year, and go for a QB next year in FA or the draft, especially with the potential availability of Russ Wilson or AROD.

 

You think it's the worst?  I dunno about that claim.  I guess it depends how the team views Heine/Allen.

[CommanderInTheRye]

 

 

 

Another inescapable conclusion is that drafting an o-lineman whose first name begins with the letter “J”  between the late 1st and early 6th round essentially guarantees future success.

[KDawg]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree that the bigger name mock drafters rely a lot on what they hear or so they say.  The most accurate mocks tend to happen closer to the end -- that's true, too.

 

I far from always agree with McShay-Kiper but I love their podcasts.  They are really entertaining for me.  I often will hear a tidbit or two that I didn't know about prospects -- they get some inside information that otherwise I don't have access to.  They got good banter and some of it is funny.  McShay on the podcasts loves to accuse Kiper of usurping some of his favorite less hearlded prospects that he's touted first by putting them up higher in his (Kipers) own mocks so he can goad McShay later on the draft broadcasts that he rated him higher. 

 

volsmet used to goad me that I stole Chase Young from him, he mentioned him before I did but I was so hyped about him for so long that I sort of usurped him as my guy.   Same thing I joked recently about Zaven Collins, I liked him early but others really own him more as a prospect because some are blown away by him.  I like Zaven but I am not blown away by him.  So even though I was early on him, he wouldn't be one of my guys anymore.  Anyway it seems like Kiper-McShay make a sport of this type of stuff and talk about it on their podcasts.

 

Anthony Schwartz to me is a great example of it.  I pushed Schwartz awhile ago as a later round flier in the draft, maybe 4th?.  I know the prospect.  But putting him that high up in the draft seems ridiculous.  Kiper making him a high 2nd rounder ahead of Rondale Moore seems insane to me.  But heck on draft night when some team takes Schwartz perhaps higher than people think -- Kiper could then say hey I had him in the top half of the 2nd round.  

 

 

 

 

 

These next two sections are singular testing results that best project future success for certain positions. That can be quite a task, finding a single athletic test that has the highest hit rate among the top performers, but two fit the bill. I know career starts might not be the best way to exhibit success, but it does show a combination of trust and longevity teams have in a player.

First is the 20-yard shuttle for offensive linemen.

 

Drafted	Name	Shuttle Time
Round 1	Nate Solder	4.34
Round 1	Anthony Castonzo	4.40
Round 1	Andre Dillard	4.40
Round 1	Eric Fisher	4.44
Round 1	Jake Matthews	4.47
Round 2	Joel Bitonio	4.44
Round 2	Xavier Su'a-Filo	4.44
Round 2	Jake Fisher	4.33
Round 2	Ali Marpet	4.47
Round 2	Jason Spriggs	4.44
Round 2	James Daniels	4.40
Round 3	Joseph Noteboom	4.44
Round 5	John Urschel	4.47
Round 5	Joe Haeg	4.47
Round 6	Jason Kelce	4.14
Round 6	David Quessenberry	4.45
Round 6	Jeff Baca	4.44
Round 6	Matt Paradis	4.46
Round 6	Chase Roullier	4.47
Round 7	Charles Leno.	4.40
UDFA	Ryan Groy	4.47
UDFA	Gabe Ikard	4.37
UDFA	Jake Brendel	4.27

 

These are the top Combine testers from 2010 to 2019. In that span, over 300 OL prospects completed a 20-yard shuttle. The top 23 are listed above. As you can see, 20 of the 23 were drafted, and those drafted players went on to start 80+% of their career games. Taking it one step further, the eight Day 3 OL started 85.47% of their career games and includes gems like Jason Kelce, Matt Paradis and Charles Leno.

It is not a leap to say that if an offensive lineman at this year’s Combine hits that 4.47 short shuttle, he should be a target player. This type of success is extremely impressive. Again, that result places them in the top percentiles of their position, but it also results in success.

 

 

 

I love reading stuff like this but always feel as if it’s incomplete. I’d love to see the names of offensive linemen drafted who didn’t meet that criteria and how did the rest of their testing scores compare? I get that they are looking for a single measurable as the premise so it does make some sense. I just wish it was more fleshed out and explained in regards to the correlation.

[Skinsinparadise]

We got the TE athletic freak

 

 

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I love reading stuff like this but always feel as if it’s incomplete. I’d love to see the names of offensive linemen drafted who didn’t meet that criteria and how did the rest of their testing scores compare? I get that they are looking for a single measurable as the premise so it does make some sense. I just wish it was more fleshed out and explained in regards to the correlation.

 

Don't know but I've seen multiple studies over the years that of all positions the athleticism scores have the better correlation for success for O lineman than any other position.  And the focus usually is speed.

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Well ... then. Hello and welcome to Sammis Reyes. Any reason why he wasn't draft-eligible? Because he's international?

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We got the TE athletic freak

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't know but I've seen multiple studies over the years that of all positions the athleticism scores have the better correlation for success for O lineman than any other position.  And the focus usually is speed.

 

 

Wonder how much they like this Reyes kid and if his roster inclusion comes with not worrying about tight end in the draft. I’d assume it doesn’t because I believe Reyes is practice squad eligible and can’t be taken via an international player stipulation but I admit I’m not very well versed there. Plus he’s raw as ****. But I’m glad we are getting to see if he can develop!

 

Ya ive seen the talk  on athleticism metrics mattering more for linemen than other positions. But I’d still like to see one big study that actually correlates those things and success rate.

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Well ... then. Hello and welcome to Sammis Reyes. Any reason why he wasn't draft-eligible? Because he's international?

Yup.

[Skinsinparadise]

I'll give another nod to Keim here.  He said multiple times including recently that they are very intrigued by converts to the TE position.  Maybe because of Thomas?

 

Obviously Reyes is raw.  Our TE coach though supposedly is one of the best in the business as developing players.  

 

Problem solved at TE?  Definitely not.  But I've been working on my TE list and I had three guys who were raw athletiic freaks that I gathered might be interesting converts based on their size athleticism.  (Davidson, Reyes, Harris).  Obviously, I've never seen Reyes play.    But it will be interesting to see if they can covert the guy.  He's at least more intriguing to me than Sprinkle who is now in Dallas. 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Wonder how much they like this Reyes kid and if his roster inclusion comes with not worrying about tight end in the draft. I’d assume it doesn’t because I believe Reyes is practice squad eligible and can’t be taken via an international player stipulation but I admit I’m not very well versed there. Plus he’s raw as ****. But I’m glad we are getting to see if he can develop!

 

 

I'd guess it doesn't influence it all.  But he at least intrigues me more than the others we got behind Thomas.  

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

27 minutes ago, illone said:

 

For me it's more about cost and opportunity.  I'd rather stick to BPA this year, and go for a QB next year in FA or the draft, especially with the potential availability of Russ Wilson or AROD.

 

You think it's the worst?  I dunno about that claim.  I guess it depends how the team views Heine/Allen.

 

There won't be any top FA QBs available next year. It doesn't happen. If Seattle or GB are willing to part with their guys, it's going to cost at the very least two 1st round picks. Wilson would probably cost three 1sts as he'd still be only 33. Rodgers will be 38 and probably cost two 1sts but probably more as well.

 

Next year's QB class sounds like it's generally seen as pretty underwhelming at this point. That can always change, but it might not matter because unless the bottom completely falls out of the team and/or we get a bunch of critical injuries, we won't be in a position to draft at the top anyway.

 

On paper we're a better team than last year but our schedule is also much more brutal so I think we're likely still around an 8-9 win team. Which will probably put us right back where we are this draft as far as position. 

 

IMO if they really like a guy this draft and he's within striking distance they should go get him. I have mixed feelings about it but at some point they're going to have to take a shot.

[Skinsinparadise]

I noticed Brugler's 40 times are slower than what others recorded on a number of players.  

 

 

 

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Hope he can catch or block or both! Good no risk move to take a look. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Looks like he’s has great footwork, and that he’s more developed in the small space drills.  Doesn’t look like a natural receiver hands wise or carrying the football. But I’m sure we will start from scratch with him and see how it goes. 

[Going Commando]

That feels like such a good signing.  I can't see any downside to it, and I'm impressed we pulled a free agent who probably had more offers than just us.

[Anselmheifer]

Do I get credit for being first on Sammis, I think? SIPS and VOLSMET can have Chase Young. I got Sammis! 😂

Edited April 13, 2021 by Anselmheifer

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I wonder if Simi Fehoko is someone the staff would draft as a converted TE type? He seems to have the frame. Kind of played the board as it came to me. Didn't need Smith, and maybe him falling there is a perfect trade-out. I drafted Fehoko as a potential TE conversion, obviously Smith would mean the WR room is even more crowded than it already is.

 

1.19: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

2.63: Jamin Davis, LB Kentucky

3.66: Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama

3.82: Josh Meyers, IOL Ohio State

4.113: Simi Fehoko, WR/TE? Stanford

4.136: Elerson Smith, DE UNI

5.163: Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma State

 

[Ball Security]

21 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

That feels like such a good signing.  I can't see any downside to it, and I'm impressed we pulled a free agent who probably had more offers than just us.

Like the signing too.  I do think we provide a cleaner opportunity for him to make the 53 man roster.  

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I wonder if Simi Fehoko is someone the staff would draft as a converted TE type? He seems to have the frame. Kind of played the board as it came to me. Didn't need Smith, and maybe him falling there is a perfect trade-out. I drafted Fehoko as a potential TE conversion, obviously Smith would mean the WR room is even more crowded than it already is.

 

1.19: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama

2.63: Jamin Davis, LB Kentucky

3.66: Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama

3.82: Josh Meyers, IOL Ohio State

4.113: Simi Fehoko, WR/TE? Stanford

4.136: Elerson Smith, DE UNI

5.163: Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma State

 

I’d argue that we absolutely could use Smith and if he’s there at 19 I don’t know how you pass on him (depending what else is there).

 

Our receiver room is:

 

McLaurin

Samuel

 

then Humphries who is oft injured.

 

then... Sims/Harmon?

 

then AGG?

 

Our receiving corps is overall pretty weak still.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’d argue that we absolutely could use Smith and if he’s there at 19 I don’t know how you pass on him (depending what else is there).

 

Our receiving corps is overall pretty weak still.

 

Totally understand. But knowing the WR bust rate and how you can find value later on, it might create some pause.

 

McLaurin

Samuel

Humphrey

AGG

Harmon

C. Sims

S. Sims

Wright

 

It could still use some work but I think AGG/Sims/Harmon are decent 4-5-6 options if they continue to progress. But yeah, you're right in that replacing Harmon with Smith would definitely upgrade this roster with McLaurin - Smith - Samuel - Humphrey - Cam Sims - AGG would be pretty legit.

Edited April 13, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Totally understand. But knowing the WR bust rate and how you can find value later on, it might create some pause.

 

McLaurin

Samuel

Humphrey

AGG

Harmon

C. Sims

S. Sims

Wright

 

It could still use some work but I think AGG/Sims/Harmon are decent 3-4-5 options if they continue to progress. But yeah, you're right in that replacing Harmon with Smith would definitely upgrade this roster with McLaurin - Smith - Samuel - Humphrey - Cam Sims - AGG would be pretty legit.

If the top three LTs are off the board and it’s a choice between Najee and Smith toss a coin. Both would be huge and would help us bring in a quarterback next year if it’s a vet... and honestly either one of them give us space to trade draft picks for a higher draft pick next year.

 

I think I’d take Najee of the two but I’d be hesitant.

[Koolblue13]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I really like Moehrig but position value and the depth of this year's safety class undermines my willingness to pick him in the range that he deserves to go.  This is a decent safety crop.  My guy Jamar Johnson has moved up boards and isn't the day three gem I thought he'd be any more, but most of what I'm seeing projects other nice prospects like Brady Breeze, Hufanga, Paris Ford and Damar Hamlin late on day three.  That's the area I would target the position.  But there is also a lot of middle of the draft talent at the position via guys like Richie Grant, Cade Sterns, Jevon Holland, Shawn Davis, Cisco & Williams, Jacoby Stevens, and some other names I'm not as familiar with like Christian Uphoff and Tyree Gillespie and the two safeties from Cincinnati.  A lot of those guys project to be future starters.

 

A day 3 try-hard like Brady Breeze would be a really good fit here.  He'd bring energy to the depth chart.  Play special teams.  Maybe surprise us and work his way into the rotation.

I agree mostly, but we don't have a starter at FS and Moehrig would be a great fit for the system and lock down the back of the D for a decade. I look at it like I look at Collins (who is my top choice at 19). I'd be ecstatic if we drafted him at 28 or something, but I'd still be completely content with taking him at 19.  

[mhd24]

34 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

That feels like such a good signing.  I can't see any downside to it, and I'm impressed we pulled a free agent who probably had more offers than just us.

 

 

He probably looked at our depth chart and was like there's a big opportunity.