tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129 its a thread. theres 3.3 million people in nova. buckle up. Prayers to the health care workers and their families. If it blows up like it might it’s gonna be a rough month. Or two. Or three. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Shared experience & guidance from our colleagues in Northern Italy Quote At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak. We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission. We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients. We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready! We also want to share with you some key points from our experience: Get ready now – with your ICU’s networks – to define your contingency plan in the event of an outbreak in your community Don’t work “in silo”. Coordinate with your hospital management and other healthcare professionals to prepare your response Make sure your hospital management and procurement office have a protocol in place about which personal protection equipment (PPE) to stock and re-stock Make sure your staff is trained in donning and doffing procedures Use education, training and simulation as much as possible Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way Increase your total ICU capacity Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort COVID-19 + patients – in every hospital if necessary Put in place a triage protocol to identify suspected cases, test them and direct them to the right cohort Make sure you set clear goals for care with the patients and their families early on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: So we can have this on record, what do you think the fatality rate in the US will be, most likely case? More people than the flu or less? If it’s less the biggest cost of this will be economic. Fatality rate and more people/less people than flu are two different things. So which one are you angling for? Cocid-19 will definitely have a higher fatality rate but less overall deaths than the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Damn. I’d planned for this week to be my last on-site with clients for awhile... drove to Nova for meetings tomorrow and in DC on Thursday. I’m sitting in my hotel rethinking that, wondering if I’m better off just going home tomorrow. I’m thinking I might. This thing is exploding right now, we just don’t know it yet. Give it two weeks and we could be dealing with Italy and Iran level outbreaks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 minute ago, skinsfan_1215 said: Damn. I’d planned for this week to be my last on-site with clients for awhile... drove to Nova for meetings tomorrow and in DC on Thursday. I’m sitting in my hotel rethinking that, wondering if I’m better off just going home tomorrow. I’m thinking I might. This thing is exploding right now, we just don’t know it yet. Give it two weeks and we could be dealing with Italy and Iran level outbreaks. It's real hard trying not to play out worst case scenarios in your head. If we were a country not so hell bent on tearing itself apart lately I'd have a lot more confidence in our collective instititions. But we're not, and I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Fatality rate and more people/less people than flu are two different things. So which one are you angling for? Cocid-19 will definitely have a higher fatality rate but less overall deaths than the flu. Im trying to figure out how the physical impact of the disease will be bigger than the economic impact. Economic impacts can have real life or death consequences. What is the impact on the survival rate of the flu and other diseases as more and more resource are devoted to this, which is actually no more severe than the flu for most people? The average age of people who have died from corona is 80. The supply shocks have countries worried about their economies. That’s part of the reason saudi arabia said they weren’t going to cut production any more which sent oil tanking. If the fear is prolonged what other economic side affects are there going to be. It works both ways though, i guess. If you let everyone get sick and the clog the hospitals, even if they don’t die that will have impacts on survability rates of other diseases. It just doesn’t seem like this is the big one. We wouldn’t be better off by just getting back to work and pulling the scab off quickly? Edited March 11, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) Can't hate on this. Please impart some knowledge to the Fox audience especially Trump. Edited March 11, 2020 by Cooked Crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 ^^^Yeah, we got the announcement from my son's university that in two weeks when spring break happens, all the kids are to go home and stay home. Classes to the end of the year will be remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: It just doesn’t seem like this is the big one. We wouldn’t be better off by just getting back to work and pulling the scab off quickly? America has a health care system a massive portion of the population can't afford to use. You can't combine this situation with the uncontrolled spread of a disease with high hospitalization rates and not see a massive economic impact. Also, you can't pull the scab off quickly because companies, schools, and communities aren't waiting for the federal government to lead on this. That ship has sailed. They're taking their own steps to mitigate the damage and slow the spread. Decision makers have largely realized that they are better off going to remote work/study options that dealing with the fallout of an unchecked disease. There is no avoiding a major economic impact at this stage. Uncontrolled spread won't make it any better, and could create social unrest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: It works both ways though, i guess. If you let everyone get sick and the clog the hospitals, even if they don’t die that will have impacts on survability rates of other diseases. It just doesn’t seem like this is the big one. We wouldn’t be better off by just getting back to work and pulling the scab off quickly? If you flip these two paragraphs, you correctly answer your own (silly) question. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nerm Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 My wife read a bunch about the hoarding habits regarding TP and hand sanitizer tonight. She has been blissfully unaware of the issues discussed in this thread. We joked about the TP hoarding, and she went to Sam's club and Amazon online, then we laughed some more about them being sold out. However, I have lived long enough to know that it is possible that things I think are funny at some point, are no longer funny at a later date. For example, the jokes that parents make to their teens include the possibility that they may eventually have teenage kids of their own. I can confirm that those jokes are not at all funny when you are in an argument with your own teenage daughter. That **** actually happens at some point, and it is terrifying. What the hell, that isn't a joke. So, basically I am nervous about the possibility that a week from now, I will be having a discussion with my wife about what the plan is to get through a week without toilet paper, while regretting that we were joking about it last week rather than taking action. I feel like we are the type of people that talk a big game about tHe zombie apocalypse, but then sit around talking about how it will blow over when it starts to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) Edited March 11, 2020 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Nerm said: My wife read a bunch about the hoarding habits regarding TP and hand sanitizer tonight. She has been blissfully unaware of the issues discussed in this thread. We joked about the TP hoarding, and she went to Sam's club and Amazon online, then we laughed some more about them being sold out. However, I have lived long enough to know that it is possible that things I think are funny at some point, are no longer funny at a later date. For example, the jokes that parents make to their teens include the possibility that they may eventually have teenage kids of their own. I can confirm that those jokes are not at all funny when you are in an argument with your own teenage daughter. That **** actually happens at some point, and it is terrifying. What the hell, that isn't a joke. So, basically I am nervous about the possibility that a week from now, I will be having a discussion with my wife about what the plan is to get through a week without toilet paper, while regretting that we were joking about it last week rather than taking action. I feel like we are the type of people that talk a big game about tHe zombie apocalypse, but then sit around talking about how it will blow over when it starts to happen. It would suck but it's pretty manageable. If you can't find toilet paper, you use baby wipes. If you can't find baby wipes, you buy some napkins or paper towels and wet them down. Or clean yourself off in the shower like it's a bidet. Hand sanitizer can be made at home with ingredients that are more readily available: if you really need some with you, buy some rubbing alcohol and aloe gel and stir up your own. It's petty easy. I'm good on TP for at least another month or two because I went and bought a 30 pack right when things were starting to get out of hand. But I get why people think it's a silly thing to hoard. Edited March 11, 2020 by Bacon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Renegade7 said: Is it fair to say we ate getting to a point where the number of reported and confirmed cases doesnt matter because the testing isnt keeping up with how fast this is spreading? This is started to sound like it's going to be the case for every country whether they take it seriously or not, maybe only death rates will be accurate if countries actually want accurate numbers to get out. I'm convinced Trump doesnt want that now and will boast numbers in his favor until hes coughing up mucus out his asshole and it leaks out. This has absolutely zero to do with leadership...it never did. This was going to spread no matter what unless borders were closed at the start, and citizens were detained against their will if suspected of being sick...which would have also been heavily criticized and politicized at the beginning. Everyone wants to point fingers but the bottom line is it was bound to happen eventually and no amount of planning or testing would have stopped it. Only way it could have been stopped would have been if we already knew the strain of virus and developed a cure and test for it BEFORE it spread...which would have definitely been suspicious. We have been warned for decades that a "superbug" or a mutated virus was on the horizon...but we just shrug that off. This was a perfect storm...a disease that is not traceable until.its too late at a time when everyone from that country goes on vacation all around the world. Every once in a while Mother Nature likes to remind us who's really in charge here... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Xameil said: Everyone wants to point fingers but the bottom line is it was bound to happen eventually and no amount of planning or testing would have stopped it. and it’s bound to happen again. And might be worse and yeah, planning and testing and acting can absolutely help. Maybe we shouldn’t treat the CDC and NIH budgets as tools to lower tax burden for wealthy people. Maybe we should take their mission seriously? Nah, just write it off as Mother Nature evening the score. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Xameil said: This has absolutely zero to do with leadership...it never did. This was going to spread no matter what unless borders were closed at the start, and citizens were detained against their will if suspected of being sick...which would have also been heavily criticized and politicized at the beginning. Everyone wants to point fingers but the bottom line is it was bound to happen eventually and no amount of planning or testing would have stopped it. Only way it could have been stopped would have been if we already knew the strain of virus and developed a cure and test for it BEFORE it spread...which would have definitely been suspicious. We have been warned for decades that a "superbug" or a mutated virus was on the horizon...but we just shrug that off. This was a perfect storm...a disease that is not traceable until.its too late at a time when everyone from that country goes on vacation all around the world. Every once in a while Mother Nature likes to remind us who's really in charge here... The spread was inevitable, the lack of preparedness and refusal to acknowledge what was happening while it was happening to adjust and properly inform the public was preventable. I'm down with saying we cant completely prevent pandemics. I'm not down with back hand giving Trump a pass on how hes been carrying himself on this topic. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 South Korea can test 15k people a day, but we can't. We are a bigger country with more resources. That is leadership failure. Zero preparation. In situations like this, you need to prepare for a pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The spread was inevitable, but the speed of that spread is alterable, and critical. This administration has been an abject failure of leadership and organization in any effort to mitigate this disease. All efforts to limit spread now (school closures, working from home, canceling of big events, etc) are happening - and may have a very beneficial effect - in spite of Trump’s BS about how this is contained and minor. I’m sure he’ll take credit for any “success” anyways. But it will be a lie, just like almost every other thing he says. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 6 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said: If you flip these two paragraphs, you correctly answer your own (silly) question. I know. I didnt consider the effect of not quarantining people in hospitals until @bcl05 mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinss Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 11 hours ago, PCS said: My wife the nurse and I will be having another talk tonight,(after a 12 hour day poor gal). I feel your pain, my wife is a nurse and the head of infection control at brattleboro memorial hospital. Her life is crazy right now, worked Saturday until midnight and sunday until 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) By the point where we are currently, South Korea had already tested 100,000 people. We are at 4500. That is a failure of the government: the CDC for not mobilizing testing throughout the country and the FDA for not yet allowing automated testing. And the biggest failure is the orange buffoon telling people that is just like the flu and go to work even if you’re sick. Even if 70% of sensible people ignore his advice, 30% of the population takes him at his word and that is enough to make a bad situation even worse. We can’t even mobilize basic testing kits. I’m worried what happens when hospitals need emergency supplies. Edited March 11, 2020 by No Excuses 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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