BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[redskins59]

13 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I think this would be a bigger deal if this thing was actually really bad.  But by the looks of things, it’s just a decent cold.

 

My prediction is that this thing becomes a seasonal thing that we go through and if you don’t get it then you’ll know people who do.  You’ll recover and then get on with your life.

 

Some common cold types out there appear to already be due to coronavirus.

Nonetheless, the death rate of covid-19 is too high for this one to be just a "decent cold".   Older people dying at  a high rate. 

Some of us have family members with diabetes or other preexisting conditions, so we have to be worried.  Perhaps I will survive, but that's not going to be the case for everybody I know.

[The Evil Genius]

It doesn't help that the current administration's apparent policy is to purposely limit covid-19 testing so that the # of cases reported is low. 

 

The current unofficial containment plan is not to test. 🙄

 

Edit..I will say that officially samples from the cruise ship were flown to my work on Thursday night. But Trump's comments at the CDC yesterday tell you everything you need to know about how his admin is and has handled this.

Edited March 7, 2020 by The Evil Genius

[88Comrade2000]

3 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

It doesn't help that the current administration's apparent policy is to purposely limit covid-19 testing so that the # of cases reported is low. 

 

The current unofficial containment plan is not to test. 🙄

 

Edit..I will say that officially samples from the cruise ship were flown to my work on Thursday night. But Trump's comments at the CDC yesterday tell you everything you need to know about how his admin is and has handled this.

Trump’s plan is to keep the numbers low. He could care less about the human toll. Gotta keep those numbers low; so it looks like this thing is minor.

 

Of course his strategy will likely backfire and actually probably cause the virus to be more widespread. Of course, we won’t know because the official numbers will be low.

[Springfield]

8 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

 

Some common cold types out there appear to already be due to coronavirus.

Nonetheless, the death rate of covid-19 is too high for this one to be just a "decent cold".   Older people dying at  a high rate. 

Some of us have family members with diabetes or other preexisting conditions, so we have to be worried.  Perhaps I will survive, but that's not going to be the case for everybody I know.

But do we know the actual death rate?  Especially amongst generally healthy people?

 

Older people are also at high risk for influenza.  What is the death rate compared to that?

[No Excuses]

7 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

It doesn't help that the current administration's apparent policy is to purposely limit covid-19 testing so that the # of cases reported is low. 

The self serving, selfish attitude of the POTUS is the biggest threat to this country right now. He’s openly telling people to go to work if they are sick and that cases will soon be zero. I am rooting for our government to get this under control but the Republican disdain for science and scientists and expertise is really going to hurt us here.

[The Evil Genius]

1 minute ago, Springfield said:

But do we know the actual death rate?  Especially amongst generally healthy people?

 

Older people are also at high risk for influenza.  What is the death rate compared to that?

 

Officially it's hard to tell because the actual # of covid19 cases is likely being under reported.

 

Last week the best guess I read was that it was anywhere from 2-10 times the mortality rate as the flu.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

18 minutes ago, twa said:

are we at that point now?

Yes

[Larry]

28 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I think this would be a bigger deal if this thing was actually really bad.  But by the looks of things, it’s just a decent cold.

 

I will note that the CDC seems to be treating it as a lot more significant than a cold.  And I'm pretty sure that they have valid scientific reasons for doing so.  

 

Not saying they're infallible.  But without evidence to the contrary, I'm going to assume that they're making the decisions which are at least reasonable, given the existing evidence.  

 

28 minutes ago, Springfield said:

My prediction is that this thing becomes a seasonal thing that we go through and if you don’t get it then you’ll know people who do.  You’ll recover and then get on with your life.

 

My own gut says that this thing seems to be at least similar enough to the flu that I have no trouble at all believing that it's simply going to become a part of our normal disease environment.  That by next year (if not much sooner), it will simply be everywhere, and we'll have to just deal with it.  

 

But again, that's just my gut.  

[redskins59]

8 minutes ago, Springfield said:

But do we know the actual death rate?  Especially amongst generally healthy people?

 

Older people are also at high risk for influenza.  What is the death rate compared to that?

You can see right here.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

So influenza's death rate is 0.1%, whereas they estimated COVID-19's death rate at 2.3% (WHO upgraded the number to >3).  

The other number to look at is R0, which is how easily the virus spreads.  The flu R0 is calculated to be 1.3, whereas they have it at between 2-3 for COVID-19.  So it appears to spread more quickly.

Now, let's say the death rate settles at 0.5%.  That's still 5 times higher than Influenza's death rate.

The other issue is vaccine.  At least with the flu, we have a vaccine, although it isn't 100% effective, but it is  known to reduce the symptoms.  Here, we don't have any vaccines.

Edited March 7, 2020 by redskins59

[Larry]

15 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Edit..I will say that officially samples from the cruise ship were flown to my work on Thursday night. But Trump's comments at the CDC yesterday tell you everything you need to know about how his admin is and has handled this.

 

While I figure it's a safe bet that the White House's response has been, . . . as professional, apolitical, coordinated, and fact based as one would expect from this administration, . . . 

 

I also assume that the WH aren't really the people who are actually doing what's important, here.  I at least assume that the wonks at the CDC and similar places are ignoring their "superiors", rolling their eyes at the latest tweets, and sticking their heads back into their microscopes and test tubes.  

[redskins59]

Think of it this way.  Let's suppose that the COVID-19 death rate ends up being 0.1%, and it is as contagious as the flu.  Wouldn't you essentially double the death rate per year?  So let's say flu kills at a rate of 0.1%, and COVID-199 kills at the same rate, one would expect the overall cold/flu season death rate to jump. If flu kills 10,000, COVID-19 kills another 10,000.  Maybe not a double, it would go up.  

Edited March 7, 2020 by redskins59

[The Evil Genius]

19 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

I also assume that the WH aren't really the people who are actually doing what's important, here.  I at least assume that the wonks at the CDC and similar places are ignoring their "superiors", rolling their eyes at the latest tweets, and sticking their heads back into their microscopes and test tubes.  

 

The Trump's administration elimination (of funding) of the PREDICT program and its elimination of the position of senior director for global health security and biodefense also hasn't helped. 

 

Additionally every single Trump proposed budget has tried to reduce CDC funding. Luckily Congress at least saw through his administration's stupidity there. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by The Evil Genius

[twa]

24 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yes

 

Texas eliminated straight party voting.....guess who are objecting?

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 minute ago, twa said:

Texas eliminated straight party voting.....guess who are objecting?

I live in Texas. No need to guess. I'm wasn't really making a commentary on straight ticket voting (I'm opposed to it though). The conversation was about individuals being allowed to make bad choices that negatively affect the larger population and I was referencing a certain individual making a certain wrong decision. 

[HOF44]

52 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

Think of it this way.  Let's suppose that the COVID-19 death rate ends up being 0.1%, and it is as contagious as the flu.  Wouldn't you essentially double the death rate per year?  So let's say flu kills at a rate of 0.1%, and COVID-199 kills at the same rate, one would expect the overall cold/flu season death rate to jump. If flu kills 10,000, COVID-19 kills another 10,000.  Maybe not a double, it would go up.  

There is a vaccine for the flu so that keeps it’s numbers down.  There will be a vaccine for the Covid19 too eventually. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Well, today was the last day to cancel the Bogota trip and get back about 65-70% of the money.

 

And I just did it.  

 

We we will take a shot at Bogota in the Fall.

 

Sucks.

[nonniey]

57 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

Think of it this way.  Let's suppose that the COVID-19 death rate ends up being 0.1%, and it is as contagious as the flu.  Wouldn't you essentially double the death rate per year?  So let's say flu kills at a rate of 0.1%, and COVID-199 kills at the same rate, one would expect the overall cold/flu season death rate to jump. If flu kills 10,000, COVID-19 kills another 10,000.  Maybe not a double, it would go up.  

From what I've read and been briefed COVID-19 becoming endemic is the bigger worry than the overall death rate.  It is likely when all is said and done the death rate probably will be closer to the regular seasonal flu than the 1918 flu pandemic, but like you said if it becomes endemic you get that repeated every year.

7 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Well, today was the last day to cancel the Bogota trip and get back about 65-70% of the money.

 

And I just did it.  

 

We we will take a shot at Bogota in the Fall.

 

Sucks.

So you are going to get away from fall weather to just go to a town with fall weather year round?  One of my favorite cities BTW.

[Larry]

1 minute ago, nonniey said:

From what I've read and been briefed COVID-19 becoming endemic is the bigger worry than the overall death rate.  It is likely when all is said and done the death rate probably will be closer to the regular seasonal flu than the 1918 flu pandemic, but like you said if it becomes endemic you get that repeated every year.

 

Yeah, and I haven't seen anything that says it's not here to stay.  (Or even suggests it.)

 

(Well, other than Trump tweets.)  

[88Comrade2000]

13 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Well, today was the last day to cancel the Bogota trip and get back about 65-70% of the money.

 

And I just did it.  

 

We we will take a shot at Bogota in the Fall.

 

Sucks.

Better to be safe than sorry.

 

I know some are saying we are overreacting. Why are events being cancelled.  All it takes is for one person with the virus to attend the event, to cause it to spread.  Also, could open the venues and people putting on the event to liability.  

 

Caution is the best to go.

[HOF44]

Covid virus has always been around. Between vaccination and natural immunity the covid19 will be much less of an issue. The real unknown is how the covid virus will evolve.  Not sure anyone knows that.  Will we get more contagious but less deadly strains.  More deadly but less contagious like SARS?? No one really knows.  We live in a world of viruses and bacteria. So it’s always gonna be an issue.  

[redskins59]

The question is, how easy is it to create a vaccine for this virus?   Any company can claim to create a vaccine.  I mean, we have many viruses out there for which we don't have any vaccines.

If I had to guess, it will take 5 years.  1 to 2 years is the optimistic timeline.  

Yes, the federal government will increase funding to fight the virus, but even with that, good luck getting a vaccine soon.

Coronavirus is already part of the cold/flu season.  Why no vaccine?  We had the SARS/MERS issue before. 

Research takes time.

[TheGoodBits]

2 hours ago, twa said:

 

are we at that point now?

We will be before most suspect. And if we wait too long it could have devastating effects on our ability to contain/delay the spread. 

[SoCalSkins]

3 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

The question is, how easy is it to create a vaccine for this virus?   Any company can claim to create a vaccine.  I mean, we have many viruses out there for which we don't have any vaccines.

If I had to guess, it will take 5 years.  1 to 2 years is the optimistic timeline.  

Yes, the federal government will increase funding to fight the virus, but even with that, good luck getting a vaccine soon.

Coronavirus is already part of the cold/flu season.  Why no vaccine?  We had the SARS/MERS issue before. 

Research takes time.

This will have multi trillion dollar impact on economy. They will throw resources at it like never before. 

[Mr. Sinister]

I had a feeling Rockville/Gaithersburg would have something to do with this (RE: Md cases).

 

Didnt want to say anything because we're not at a point where people should comment without actual facts. But those places (along with Germantown) are some of the more diverse places in the entire country.

[StillUnknown]