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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Comparing the pattern to what was seen out of South Korea around the time of failed containment, I would guess the horse has left the barn in the US at this point and the confirmed cases are artificially low.  I think the government really has to start focusing on ramping up resources for hospitals to deal with the likely coming surge of patients.  

 

Korea was much much more aggressive about epidemiological study, testing, and quarantine in the beginning and still all it took was one crack for the infection numbers in the teens to blow up to over 7000 in matter of weeks.  We are barely testing and our numbers are already worse than Korea before the blow up.

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6 hours ago, twa said:

 

Texas eliminated straight party voting.....guess who are objecting?

You. And other Texas Republicans who lost the "I didn't vote for Trump, I voted straight ticket" deniability because of this? (Even if you admitted that your ticket didn't automatically check Trump, so you had to check it yourself, so you voted for Trump, even if you didn't)

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https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.amp

 

Quote

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

There are many compelling reasons to conclude that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is not nearly as deadly as is currently feared. But COVID-19 panic has set in nonetheless. You can’t find hand sanitizer in stores, and N95 face masks are being sold online for exorbitant prices, never mind that neither is the best way to protect against the virus (yes, just wash your hands). The public is behaving as if this epidemic is the next Spanish flu, which is frankly understandable given that initial reports have staked COVID-19 mortality at about 2–3 percent, quite similar to the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.


Allow me to be the bearer of good news. These frightening numbers are unlikely to hold. The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.


.......
 

This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported. Given the low mortality rate among younger patients with coronavirus—zero in children 10 or younger among hundreds of cases in China, and 0.2-0.4 percent in most healthy nongeriatric adults (and this is still before accounting for what is likely to be a high number of undetected asymptomatic cases)—we need to divert our focus away from worrying about preventing systemic spread among healthy people—which is likely either inevitable, or out of our control—and commit most if not all of our resources toward protecting those truly at risk of developing critical illness and even death: everyone over 70, and people who are already at higher risk from this kind of virus.


more at the link.

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Driving home just now, heard some things on NPR, about the nursing home in Washington that's under quarantine. 

 

They've had 26 deaths since Feb 19. 

But only 13 of them tested positive for the virus. 

The story didn't mention if the other 13 were negative, or not tested. 

The patients who test negative, are there because they have nowhere else to go. 

Hospitals won't take them unless they're acute. And family says they can't care for them. 

On Feb 19, the nursing home had 160 employees. They're now down to 70. 

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