BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[88Comrade2000]

16 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Talking to an epidemiologist at work this morning and she said not to be surpised if it's 3-4 years before this is all over. Especially with how some states are opening back up this week (too early). Not to mention the ****tard states who never sheltered to begin with.

 

She also talked about how covid-19 has likely mutated several times, making the notion that a vaccine will be the simple panacea illogical. Much like the flu, the vaccination when it happens will likely be less than 60 or so % effective (for reference the flu shot this season was 45% effective).. 

 

Ugh.

😓😓😓🤤😨😭😭

[youngestson]

^^^

 

I'll await the demands from Fox & Friends that the nurses be arrested for violating traffic laws.  

[skinsmarydu]

Funny comment from reddit: 

These protesters are the reason labels that read "Do Not Iron Clothes While Wearing Them" exist. 

[China]

13 hours, 22 bodies: The long, lonesome shift of a crematory worker in the heat of COVID-19

 

Gus Padilla stepped outside the drab gray building and squinted in the afternoon light. He had arrived seven hours earlier, just before 7:30 a.m., after grabbing breakfast at the bodega across the street.

 

Two egg whites, honey turkey, a buttered roll, toasted.

 

Padilla scarfed down his breakfast and changed into his work clothes. A long-sleeve navy shirt, teal pants, white face mask, black plastic gloves. 

 

Then he got to work, placing body after body after body into a large furnace, known as a retort, inside the crematorium at Green-Wood Cemetery in Brooklyn, New York.

 

“It’s nonstop,” Padilla said, his skin moist from sweat. 

 

 “We’re up to 26, 27 today, I think,” he said of the number of bodies. “And more than half are COVID.” 

 

The influx of bodies — almost triple pre-coronavirus levels — hadn’t let up in weeks.

 

Not even Easter Sunday provided a reprieve.

 

“I worked from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.” he recalled. “We’re just getting bombarded.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Sea turtles are finally thriving now that people are stuck indoors

 

Stay-at-home orders have forced millions of people to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Now, as summer approaches and beaches remain void of people and pollution, sea turtles are finally able to nest peacefully — and they're thriving. 

 

Sarah Hirsch, senior manager of research and data at Loggerhead Marinelife Center, told CBS News affiliate WPEC that "it's going to be a very good year for our leatherbacks." 

 

All seven species of sea turtles are endangered. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the largest threats sea turtles face in the U.S. are damages to nesting habitats, accidentally getting captured by fishermen, debris entanglement and getting hit by marine vessels. 

 

"All of the reduced human presence on the beach also means that there will be less garbage and other plastics entering the marine environment," Godfrey added. "Ingestion and entanglement in plastic and marine debris also are leading causes of injury to sea turtles."

 

A study conducted at the University of Florida in 2016 found that removing debris from the beach can increase the number of nests by as much as 200%. 

 

In Juno Beach, Florida, researchers from the Loggerhead Marinelife Center have found at least 69 nests, which is "significantly more than normal" for the 9.5 miles of beach they include in their research, according to CBS Miami. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

Edited April 20, 2020 by China

[purbeast]

45 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

This is an unedited transcript:

 

REPORTER: I wanted to ask you specifically about one industry in particular, and that’s food-processing plants. Is there a priority to get testing at food-processing plants all across the country?

TRUMP: "Well, you’re asking that because of what happened — it’s a fair question, too — what happened in Denver. Because in Denver, I’ve never seen — I said, “What’s going on?” We’re looking at this graph where everything’s looking beautiful and it’s coming down and then you got this one spike. It’s — I said, “What happened to Denver?”
And many people, very quickly, and they — by the way, they were on it like, so fast, you wouldn’t believe it. They knew every aspect. They had people go and — not only testing, “Who did you see? Where were you? How many people did you meet? Were you out to dinner in somebody else’s home? Where were you?” Where did — where did this number of people come from? How did — they are totally on it.

Now, this just happened. I just saw it this morning. I’m looking at everything smooth, going down, topping out. And then you have this one spike in Denver. It’s like, where did this come from? So we’ll be looking at that. And we don’t want cases like that happening. This was — but this — this is the kind of thing can happen. This is very complex. This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it. And they’re constantly trying to come up with a new — people go to a hospital and they catch — they go for a heart operation — that’s no problem, but they end up dying from — from problems. You know the problems I’m talking about. There’s a whole genius to it. We’re fighting — not only is it hidden, but it’s very smart. Okay? It’s invisible and it’s hidden, but it’s — it’s very smart. And you see that in a case like a Denver. But, you know, I think we’re doing well, and they’re on Denver like you wouldn’t believe. I came in this morning; it was a flurry. I said what’s going on? They said, “Denver.” I said, “What happened to Denver?” Because Denver was doing pretty well. And they’ve got that under control. But, yeah, that would be a case where you do some very big testing."

I can't even read this lol.  Can someone translate?

[skinsmarydu]

1 minute ago, purbeast said:

I can't even read this lol.  Can someone translate?

"I'm an idiot about everything."

[spjunkies]

 

[Destino]

11 minutes ago, purbeast said:

I can't even read this lol.  Can someone translate?

Think back to those scenes in comedy movies where a person is caught by surprise by something and tries to bull**** their way through it.  You know the ones where they stammer and sweat their way through a long winded but ultimately empty response hoping the other person will buy it.  
 

It’s like that... but this one is real and given by the POTUS.  

[Dr. Do Itch Big]

2 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, I concede I dont really know this topic.  But I always got the impression the FDA was generally pretty conservative with stuff like this.  Which is why stuff takes so long to get approved, or isnt approved at all.  Like how we see all these meds, treatments, and procedures available around the world, but the U.S. says "nope".  

Yep. FDA prevented the use thalidomide. im not going to pretend it’s a perfect system but it’s a lot more nuanced than people think.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

Talking to an epidemiologist at work this morning and she said not to be surpised if it's 3-4 years before this is all over. Especially with how some states are opening back up this week (too early). Not to mention the ****tard states who never sheltered to begin with.

 

She also talked about how covid-19 has likely mutated several times, making the notion that a vaccine will be the simple panacea illogical. Much like the flu, the vaccination when it happens will likely be less than 60 or so % effective (for reference the flu shot this season was 45% effective).. 

 

Ugh.

 

Covid-19 is generally considered to be a relatively stable genetic virus (all viruses mutate that doesn't mean that we can't and don't create vaccines against them).  The fact that it is spreading so quickly and easily among asymptomatic people actually lowers evolutionary pressure compared to other viruses.

 

An important thing to remember here is we are also bringing new methods to generate vaccines to bear here that will potentially make mutability less of an issue than historical that makes the comparison to other traditional vaccines bad (and really irrelevant).  The vaccines being looked at target an essential protein for infection.  Also the, RNA based approaches being used (if successful) will give greater flexibility of the adaptability of the vaccine over previous vaccine development methods (and so better able to cope with mutations).  There appear to DNA versions of the same vaccine.  The LV-SMENP_DC is an attempt to raise antibodies to multiple viral proteins (and so if there is a mutation to one, the vaccine will likely still work).

 

The only reported mutation to the spike protein (which is what people are trying to target even with a traditional vaccines) is one that makes it less likely to infect human cells.

 

(Much of the above, I wouldn't expect an epidemiologist to appreciate or understand but:)

 

1.  The other thing is that only about 50% of the US population gets the flu vaccine.  Even at 45% effective if 80% of the population gets the vaccine, that'll be a powerful amount of immunity. 

 

2.  Much of the issue with the flu vaccine doesn't appear to be mutations of the spreading virus.  Much of it appears to be mutations in the vaccine during the vaccine production method.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/why-flu-vaccines-so-often-fail

 

That means that if your vaccine fails and you get the flu, it might not be because the flu mutated, but because you didn't get what you were supposed to get.  Better quality control and some of the newer methods that are being brought to bear here (if they are successful) would greatly diminish that problem.

 

3.  The other thing to remember is that when people say the flu vaccine is 45% effective that's in terms of people being sick enough to go to the doctor.  But even among some of those people, they are likely getting some protection.  So in terms of serious health out comes, the flu vaccine was likely more effective than 45%.

 

(Realistically, we're still using ~1970s technology and practices to determine how and what flu vaccine to make for flu vaccine for the most part and that's a large part of why we have an issue in making good flu vaccines.  There just isn't/hasn't been enough money and incentive to update the program/methods.  But since we are essentially starting from scratch here, there is a much better chance that we'll get a good vaccine.

 

Somebody brought up HIV before as a virus that we can't vaccinate against.  There are specific (molecular) reasons we can't make a HIV vaccine yet.  But this virus doesn't seem to have those same methods.  It would be somewhat surprising if we can't make a good vaccine for this virus at the level of the flu even using the same process we do for the flu.  And giving better methods, practices, and techniques, it would be surprising if we didn't get something much better than the average flu vaccine.)

Edited April 20, 2020 by PeterMP

[The Evil Genius]

⏫

 

Thanks Peter..

 

Considering the ROI of this, I'd hope making the vaccination (if and when it happens) mandatory would be considered.  Fully acknowledging the antivaxx nutters, I'd hope that vaccination would be embraced by the majority (even if I know better) of the American population and would be either free or subsidized to the point that its essentially free.

[TheGreatBuzz]

43 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

"I'm an idiot about everything."

Bigly.

[PeterMP]

3 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, I concede I dont really know this topic.  But I always got the impression the FDA was generally pretty conservative with stuff like this.  Which is why stuff takes so long to get approved, or isnt approved at all.  Like how we see all these meds, treatments, and procedures available around the world, but the U.S. says "nope".  

 

There are drugs that are approved in the US that are not approved in much of the rest of the world or have been pulled.

 

One example:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosiglitazone

 

A clear example has been seen in the case of Covid-19 where Europe has been more strict with allowing the prescription of chloroquine than the US.

 

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/europe-locks-down-chloroquine-scripts-as-researchers-china-report-positive-controlled-covid

 

Generally, the process in the US is considered faster than Europe because the US system is more centerilized and systematic (The European system has been developed over years through a hodge podge of regulations and regulatory bodies where in the US everything essentially comes through and to the FDA).

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/drugs-oked-faster-in-us-than-in-europe-31678

 

There's generally been concerns about the degree of oversight and focus on safety in the FDA under Trump before the Covid-19.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/exclusive-fda-enforcement-actions-plummet-under-trump

 

The FDA is absolutely not immune from political pressure or political oversight.

Edited April 20, 2020 by PeterMP

[Mr. Sinister]

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

Talking to an epidemiologist at work this morning and she said not to be surpised if it's 3-4 years before this is all over. Especially with how some states are opening back up this week (too early). Not to mention the ****tard states who never sheltered to begin with.

 

She also talked about how covid-19 has likely mutated several times, making the notion that a vaccine will be the simple panacea illogical. Much like the flu, the vaccination when it happens will likely be less than 60 or so % effective (for reference the flu shot this season was 45% effective).. 

 

Ugh.

 

We really are screwed, aren't we? Staying positive was relatively easy, but this wave of stupid that's come over us makes me believe some once every thousand years type **** is coming.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

We really are screwed, aren't we? Staying positive was relatively easy, but this wave of stupid that's come over us makes me believe some once every thousand years type **** is coming.

That's the strange part.  Trump loves talking about 1917, but either failed to read the part about everyone going back and out dying off, or more likely - doesn't care, because of the economy.  And like I've mentioned on numerous occasions, 'opening up' doesn't just make the economy go back to normal.  I recall the weird feeling I had the morning I woke up to find out Trump won and said to my wife that this was the end of the world as we know it and all we can do is hope nothing catastrophic (like this) occurs under his presidency.  Yet, here we are.

[Larry]

1 hour ago, China said:

 

13 hours, 22 bodies: The long, lonesome shift of a crematory worker in the heat of COVID-19

 

 

Clever headline writer. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

20 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

That's the strange part.  Trump loves talking about 1917, but either failed to read the part about everyone going back and out dying off

I don’t know about the second wave bring worse. The way things are looking like now a lot more people have had and not shown symptoms which means the lethality rate is pretty low and the infection rate is pretty high.  If that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense that the first wave would be stronger than the first?

 

https://www.wtkr.com/news/reports-continue-to-suggest-many-have-had-coronavirus-with-no-symptoms

[Die Hard]

1 hour ago, Destino said:

Think back to those scenes in comedy movies where a person is caught by surprise by something and tries to bull**** their way through it.  You know the ones where they stammer and sweat their way through a long winded but ultimately empty response hoping the other person will buy it.  
 

It’s like that... but this one is real and given by the POTUS.  

 

It doesn't even have to be Hollywood. Remember that kid in your class, who was supposed to give a presentation.......

[China]

I guess this is one way to reduce prison overcrowding:

 

 

[StillUnknown]

1 hour ago, purbeast said:

I can't even read this lol.  Can someone translate?

 

"Her emails."

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I don’t know about the second wave bring worse. The way things are looking like now a lot more people have had and not shown symptoms which means the lethality rate is pretty low and the infection rate is pretty high.  If that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense that the first wave would be stronger than the first?

 

https://www.wtkr.com/news/reports-continue-to-suggest-many-have-had-coronavirus-with-no-symptoms

 

A Standford study  says only about 5% of the population has antibodies.  That corresponds to about 50-80X more than the reported infection rate in that part of CA. (i.e. many more people have had it than reported because they had no to mild symptoms and were never tested.)

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

 

That also means there are a lot of people (~95% of the population) yet to be infected or can be re-infected (i.e. they had it, got better (potentially had mild symptoms)) and get seriously sick.  Without restrictions on movement, it isn't hard to imagine a 2nd wave being worse than the first.

 

(Though you are generally right.  Lethality appears to quite low (almost certainly lower than the normal flu), but it spreads quite easily (much more easily than the normal flu).  But even given that, in real terms, it is likely relatively few Americans have had it.  Even if the official estimates of the number of people that have had it are way off, there are still a lot more people that can get it.)

Edited April 20, 2020 by PeterMP

[spjunkies]

 

[China]

Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs

Edited April 20, 2020 by China

[China]

Pubs across UK might not open fully until Christmas

 

Cabinet secretary Michael Gove this weekend said the hospitality industry will be subject to social distancing measures for a longer period than others in a bid to prevent a second wave of the virus hitting Britons later this year.

 

Frank Maguire, from Truman’s brewery in London, told The Sun he thinks it is ‘unlikely’ that pubs will be able to open again as normal before Christmas.

Click on the link for the full article