Califan007 The Constipated Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) @twa - "Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1 percent hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet." I'm having some problems with just buying this outright. For starters, the implication is that the lower the unemployment rate, the lower the drug-related death rate. The stats don't back that up. The study that article talks about covers the years between 2000-2014. It appears to link the rise in drug-related deaths to the sharp rise in unemployment between 2009-2011. It also appears to compare the number of drug-related deaths in 2000 to the number of drug-related deaths in 2014. Since I'm only reading an overall synopsis of the study perhaps it goes into far more detail in terms of seeing a noticeable spike in drug-related deaths that coincides with the significant spike in the unemployment rates, but the stats don't seem to suggest that occurred. Further, the opinions reached from the people who conducted the study seem to be all over the map (at least from the synopsis). Apparently, two factors that played a role in the increase in drug-related deaths were the loss of health insurance and reduced public funding for substance abuse treatment. This would seem to point to coming up with government plans to provide better health access to all and better funding for substance abuse treatment centers far in advance of any possible global pandemic instead of relaxing guidelines during the pandemic once we're in the middle of it. But stranger still, another conclusion apparently reached was that the results of the study do NOT suggest "a substantial impact of factors like lower incomes or greater leisure time (which could be used to engage in health-promoting behaviors like exercise or drug treatment programs)". Did you catch that? lol...reduced public funding for substance abuse treatment during recessions is a culprit in the rise of drug-related deaths, yet the lack of income and unemployment would mean more people would have the time to--wait for it--participate in drug treatment programs lol... Their final conclusion, though, was "we suspect that the dominant factor linking macroeconomic conditions to adverse drug outcomes is that the fatal and near fatal abuse of opioids often (and increasingly over time) reflects a physical manifestation of mental health problems that have long been known to rise during periods of economic decline." This brings me back to what is confusing to me: the implication that the lower the unemployment rate, the lower the number of drug-related deaths (or at the very least a slowing down of the increase). Better access to healthcare, better funding of substance abuse programs, and less likelihood of an increase in mental health problems that the stress a recession and high unemployment can cause. But the stats don't seem to back that up very well. Their study stops in 2014...the charts below start in 2010 and go up to 2018. The unemployment rates between 2010 - 2018, and the drug-related death totals during that same timespan. They seem to be going in different directions. And them overlapping... I personally chalk it up to a significant rise in opioid/fentanyl use this past decade, but the increase in opioid use dates back to the last decade as well, which this study even mentions (along with heroin being cheaper). So like I said, I'm not buying that higher unemployment means a significant increase in drug-related deaths, especially to the point that it causes more of those deaths than the COVID-19 deaths the stay-at-home orders prevented. Edited April 19, 2020 by Califan007 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Trump’s replacement for Fauci: https://mobile.twitter.com/PinkyD124/status/1251578136824774656 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dan T. said: Trump’s replacement for Fauci: https://mobile.twitter.com/PinkyD124/status/1251578136824774656 That was well done. The funniest part is that she doesn't even live in Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) Edited April 19, 2020 by visionary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 the ****? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Another CBS News Superstar asking tough questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Wildbunny said: Best option is by the end of the year. If I'm the President of a country as of now, I'm gonna start working on the "what if" other options. which is what @twa was suggesting. The president acting like a bafoon not withstanding. That’s actually why he is such a bad president. Not because his desire to open up the county, but because he frames the argument in such a way that a reasonable discussion cannot be had. You have to either want to open everything up immediately or you want everything closed for as long as it takes to save every one- with no discussion. I know that’s not your position, and I don’t want to open everything up right away. But if I say “we should open the country up” I am pro trump... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 🙁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 The discussion of the strawman version of the social distancing argument reminds me of Milo and Opus... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 4 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said: I haven't seen a post from bcl05 in a while. I know he was busy at the Mayo Clinic. Plus he mentioned Mayo was about to layoff people. Hope he's doing okay. 🙏 I appreciate the concern - very kind of you. I'm fine. I'm a physician at Mayo, and MDs are not being furloughed. We're all taking salary cuts, which isn't great, but compared to many others, I consider myself lucky. Lots of our ancillary staff are off work, though, and that's awfully rough. I haven't been on here as much - its too infuriating and frustrating to deal with all the BS and misinformation and stupidity out there. I'm so incredibly disappointed in our country. 18 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, twa said: I'm a great candidate ...to die. I think the only box I don't check is diabetes in areas not overly burdened healthcare wise we can loosen up and restrict again as needed,we already have a significant % working as essential. Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1 percent hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet. https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-must-count-the-deaths-from-shutdowns-as-well-as-from-coronavirus/ This is an extremely misleading reading of the literature. The most recent literature tied to the most economics in the US actually find that there is no effect or even a positive effect. Including research by the NBER: https://www.nber.org/papers/w19287.pdf There is a more recent paper published in Lancet that says recessions increase deaths.... in Brazil. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30415-2/fulltext If there is societal understanding, appreciation, and support for those that can't work during this time, there's no real reason to think that it should result in more deaths (as I've already stated in this thread, we're clearly driving down car accidents too so almost certainly deaths from them too). Edited April 20, 2020 by PeterMP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 I guess that is what I deserve from listening to the academics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, twa said: I guess that is what I deserve from listening to the academics. I don't think anybody considers Betsy McCaughey an academic. Edited April 20, 2020 by PeterMP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, PeterMP said: I don't think anybody considers Betsy McCaughey an academic. I was speaking of ya'll. I hope ya'll survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSkins Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html Sorry if this was posted earlier. Another study on obesity and covid outcomes. Basically, it is the greatest risk factor other than being over 65. More than lung diseases, diabetes and heart problems. Pretty worrying given that 40% of Americans are obese. Edited April 20, 2020 by SoCalSkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 52 minutes ago, twa said: I was speaking of ya'll. I hope ya'll survive. That's what you deserve for listening...to us ?? Huh? I would think saying that's what you deserve for not listening to us would be more appropriate lol... Edited April 20, 2020 by Califan007 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html Sorry if this was posted earlier. Another study on obesity and covid outcomes. Basically, it is the greatest risk factor other than being over 65. More than lung diseases, diabetes and heart problems. Pretty worrying given that 40% of Americans are obese. Great. Now Trump will start blaming fat people for the virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Trump knew in November. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/17/us-knew-report-says-american-intel-threa t-coronavirus-was-shared-israel-and-nato An Israeli news report on Thursday revealed that the country was told in November by U.S. intelligence about the potential threat of the coronavirus—warnings that were also made to NATO and to the White House—a clear contradiction of Pentagon claims last week that no such report existed. "The smoking gun has arrived," tweeted Joel Rubin, a former aide to the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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