BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Bacon]

Really good news to kick off your morning:

 

The growth rate for new deaths (worldwide) hit 1% yesterday for the first time since February 26th. That is the only other day at 1% on Worldometers' entire table, which goes back to January 23rd. Additionally, the number of new deaths has dropped for five days straight.

 

God, remember February? It feels like a lifetime ago.

[StillUnknown]

 

Standards are extinct 

[Renegade7]

Quote

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

 

Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June https://nyti.ms/3fjeYNB

[spjunkies]

 

[Renegade7]

15 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

He's probably right, WW1 was a war of attrition with Spanish Flu poured on top of it.

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[spjunkies]

 

[Hooper]

We are so screwed. 

[LadySkinsFan]

5 minutes ago, Hooper said:

We are so screwed. 

 

As with most things, we have to protect ourselves. I suggest that those who have to go to work to wear masks and gloves, disinfect hard surfaces, and do their best to protect themselves. We can't help what other people do in their misguided approach to this virus.

[Renegade7]

It's was already like running from sunlight, now folks are opening the windows in my house after I close them.  

 

We'll be the first to full herd immunity at this point, that the next buzzword these openers will start throwing around as more of then pass antibody tests.

 

Either the death rate scares this reopen crap in it's tracks or flu season is going to be the ultimate night cap to this ****ty 2020 year we got on our hands so far.  

[China]

Like this woman:

 

Woman cuts hole in face mask so that it’s easier to breathe

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by China

[kfrankie]

I made a similar post about 2 weeks ago in the "re-opening the economy thread," and thought some in this thread would these figures interesting.  This data listed in the below chart was taken from the figures reported on the Maryland Department of heath webpage, which i then used to create the chart.

 

 

Note that there are deaths that are classified as "confirmed" as a result of Covid-19 (column A), and deaths that are classified as "Likely" resulting from Covid-19 (column B).  To be conservative, I've included both classifications in the total number of deaths. In addition, there are an additional 105 confirmed and likely Covid-19 deaths where age information has not been reported. In order to take these deaths into consideration, I determined the percentage of all deaths (column F) for each of the age demographics.  This calculation was performed by taking the total # of deaths from each age demographic in column D, divided it by the total # of age reported deaths (1146 + 92 = 1238), which provided a decimal which is converted to a pro rata percentage. The resulting pro rata % is then displayed in column F, which is used as a multiplier against the 79 unclassified deaths to arrive at a figure (Column E), to be added to the total deaths figure for each age demographic (column G). This calcucation for the assignment of the unclassified deaths assumes that the rates will remain the same for each demographic, which is the only reasonable way to do this.  So the death figures in Column G include (1) confirmed deaths, (2) likely deaths, and (3) each demographic's pro rata share of the 79 "unreported age" deaths.  As you can see (and as we all know), the resulting death rates, which are in Column H, increase with age. The rates go up substantially for each age demographic. However, age is the only variable included in this chart.

 

What these figures do not tell us is whether the deceased individuals from these demographics suffered from comorbidity, i.e. one of the additional underlying health conditions commonly associated with death from the virus such as existing respiratory disease, coronary artery disease, immune deficiencies, diabetes, etc. For example, of 19.14 deaths (column G) resulting from the 4550 reported cases in the age 30-39 demographic, it is unclear how many of the 19.14 individuals had an underlying disease that contributed to their death. But it is likely that a number of those 19.14 individuals did have an underlying condition. Think of it this way-- out of the 4550 reported cases, there are certainly several individuals that had an existing respiratory disease, diabetes, or some sort of disease affecting their immune system.  It stands to reason that a higher percentage of those people would die upon contracting Covid-19, therefore its likely that 1 or more of the 19.14 had one of the comorbidities commonly associated with death from Covid-19. However, if you do not have an underlying health condition, the death rate figures in Column H are likely lower.  So the rate in column H represents the ceiling for an infected individual without an underlying condition.  Said otherwise, this chart represents the highest possible mortality rate for a person in a particular age demographic that is not suffering from an underlying health condition because it also includes all individuals that did have an underlying health condition.  For those that do have an underlying health condition, the death rates will obviously be higher than the percentage rates contained in Column H.

 

So the upshot from this is up to you.  Also note that any "unreported" cases of infection, which are those individuals that had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic or believed they simply had the flu or a bad cold, would only drive the death rate % figures in Column H lower. In fact, some reports indicate that the number of actual infections could be 2x, 3x, 5x, or 10x the reported "confirmed positive" figures.  On the flip side, there could be some deaths resulting from Covid-19 that were not reported as "confirmed" or "likely" (i.e. "improperly classified" as another ailment) for whatever reason.  But on the whole, the sheer number of "unreported" infections would more than cancel out any increase in the percentage rate of death resulting from the number of "improperly classified" deaths. After all, if you die of Covid-19 its going to be pretty obvious that you had some sort of respiratory symptoms prior to death, and all hospitals are hypersensitive about identifying Covid-19 cases among existing patients right now, so any reasonable medical professional should make that connection.

[Dan T.]

Sorry, I'm not taking history lessons from someone who thinks Frederick Douglas is still alive, that Andrew Jackson could have stopped the Civil War, who put up a historical marker on his golf course commemorating a Civil War battle that NEVER HAPPENED, who said that "most people don't know" that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican, who actually said this:  “People don't realize, you know, the Civil War, if you think about it, why? People don't ask that question, but why was there the Civil War?", who told Prime Minister Trudeau that Canada burned down the White House in the War of 1812, and who claims that real estate developer Donald Trump was a good businessman.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Dan T.

[FanboyOf91]

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

We survived the Bowling Green Massacre, we can survive Covfefe-19!!  #OpenTheStripclubsNow

[China]

As coronavirus hits record numbers in Russia, this is a dangerous moment for Putin

 

Russia hit a grim milestone over the weekend, officially recording the highest number of coronavirus cases the country has seen in a 24-hour period, with 10,633 people testing positive. And the economic pain is worsening: Last week, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on state television that he had never seen a crisis like Covid-19.

 

"I don't recall anything like this," he said, adding that plummeting global oil prices -- a primary source of Russian state revenue -- had delivered a "double hit" to the country's economy.

It adds up to a dangerous political moment for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a new survey published by independent pollster Levada-Center, less than half of respondents -- 46% -- said the Russian government had responded adequately to the crisis.

 

The pandemic has even hit Putin's usually sky-high approval ratings. 

 

Russia's embattled opposition has seized on the coronavirus crisis to step up its criticism of the president, particularly over the Kremlin's economic response to the crisis. 

 

It's important to state up front that coronavirus is not yet an existential threat to Putin. The Russian president enjoys flattering coverage on state television, which has cast him as a cool-headed and competent leader in the response to the crisis.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

[tshile]

Hahah I had never seen that quote from trump about the civil war

 

that one may be my favorite

[Mr. Sinister]

7 minutes ago, China said:

As coronavirus hits record numbers in Russia, this is a dangerous moment for Putin

 

Russia hit a grim milestone over the weekend, officially recording the highest number of coronavirus cases the country has seen in a 24-hour period, with 10,633 people testing positive. And the economic pain is worsening: Last week, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on state television that he had never seen a crisis like Covid-19.

 

"I don't recall anything like this," he said, adding that plummeting global oil prices -- a primary source of Russian state revenue -- had delivered a "double hit" to the country's economy.

It adds up to a dangerous political moment for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a new survey published by independent pollster Levada-Center, less than half of respondents -- 46% -- said the Russian government had responded adequately to the crisis.

 

The pandemic has even hit Putin's usually sky-high approval ratings. 

 

Russia's embattled opposition has seized on the coronavirus crisis to step up its criticism of the president, particularly over the Kremlin's economic response to the crisis. 

 

It's important to state up front that coronavirus is not yet an existential threat to Putin. The Russian president enjoys flattering coverage on state television, which has cast him as a cool-headed and competent leader in the response to the crisis.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

Assassinate! Assassinate! 

[spjunkies]

 

 

 

[PCS]

@FanboyOf91 tweet abovie. 

 

Noticed a few folks on twitter doing that about 3+ weeks ago. Started to doing that myself using the Worldometer site and a couple of others at times.  They saw the upward trend,(slight at the time),around the country starting. I noticed the same with the usual odd dip here and there.  This guy talks about it and the possible effects of reopening. It's a long thread.  

 

 

 

 

 

Thread unroll

 

 

[Supernatural24]

 

[Renegade7]

45 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Assassinate! Assassinate! 

 

Russia probably has more to lose from this pandemic-despression then we have time to talk about. 

 

For starters, their population was already shrinking before this started.  Add to that they were banking on oil blunting economic loses from how they deal with the west...

[The Sisko]

17 hours ago, No Excuses said:

 

A first for this admin. Might be a sign that their indeed is a bottom and they’ve reached it.

Sorry, but the bottom for this administration can be found down this hole...

 

56 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

We survived the Bowling Green Massacre, we can survive Covfefe-19!!  #OpenTheStripclubsNow

...and for the south, #OpenTheskripclubsNow #ITellYaWutOpenNemDangOleStripclubsNowMan

 

[JCB]

Hey, look what happened in today's episode of The Buck Stops Here!

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-fauci-coronavirus-not-big-deal-fox-town-hall-2020-5

[visionary]