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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Study investigates estrogen patch use to lessen COVID-19 complications

 

 As researchers continue to assess complications of COVID-19, one striking difference has become clear — men who contract the novel coronavirus are more likely to be intubated or die compared with women. Animal model studies of the SARS virus suggest that the age and sex differences in COVID-19 symptom severity may be due to the protective and acute actions of estrogen, and researchers are initiating a trial designed to find out whether a transdermal estrogen patch placed on the skin of COVID-19-positive patients can reduce symptom severity compared with regular care.

 

Continue reading:. https://www.healio.com/endocrinology/hormone-therapy/news/online/{334d4dd8-cc70-4672-952f-735440eef7da}/study-investigates-estrogen-patch-use-to-lessen-covid-19-complications?utm_source=selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=endocrinology news&m_bt=151702162645

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Government orders 100,000 new body bags as Trump minimizes death toll

 

WASHINGTON — The federal government placed orders for well over 100,000 new body bags to hold victims of COVID-19 in April, according to internal administration documents obtained by NBC News, as well as public records. The biggest set was earmarked for purchase the day after President Donald Trump projected that the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus might not exceed 50,000 or 60,000 people.

 

That batch is a pending $5.1 million purchase order placed by the Department of Homeland Security on April 21 with E.M. Oil Transport Inc. of Montebello, California, which advertises construction vehicles, building materials and electronics on its website. The "human remains pouches" have not been paid for or shipped to the Federal Emergency Management Agency yet, according to the company's marketing manager, Mike Pryor.

 

Around the same time it wrote the contract for the body bags, FEMA opened up bidding to provide about 200 rented refrigerated trailers for locations around the country. The request for proposals specifies a preference for 53-foot trailers, which, at 3,600 cubic feet, are the largest in their class.

 

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Excess U.S. deaths hit estimated 37,100 in pandemic’s early days, far more than previously known

 

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Sources: Overall death data and covid-19 death counts come from the National Center for Health Statistics, and estimates for expected deaths come from Yale School of Public Health’s Modeling Unit.

 

 

The United States recorded an estimated 37,100 excess deaths as the novel coronavirus spread across the country in March and the first two weeks of April, nearly 13,500 more than are now attributed to covid-19 for that same period, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.

 

The Yale team’s analysis suggests that the number of excess deaths accelerated as the pandemic took hold. There were 16,600 estimated excess deaths just in the week of April 5 to April 11, compared with 20,500 over the prior five weeks.

 

Though the team’s estimate of the impact early in the outbreak already paints a picture of unusually high mortality, the number is certain to grow as more deaths are reported to the federal government on a rolling basis.

 

“I think people need to be aware that the data they’re seeing on deaths is very incomplete,” said Dan Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology who led the analysis for The Post.

 

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One of my favorite statistics for measuring the health of a country/state, how it's being impacted by COVID-19, and how they're responding to it is the percentage of positive tests coming in.

 

When a country is first testing for coronavirus, what inevitably happens is that the most infirm get tested first, resulting in the highest fatality rates and the highest percentages of positive tests. Over time, as the general population is tested more frequently, more mild cases and negative results show up in the data.

 

Here is the percentage of negative results in some countries that have been praised for how well they've handled the pandemic:

 

Australia: 1.1%
South Korea: 1.7%
Finland: 5.1%
Germany 6.5%

 

Compare those figures to some countries that have been hammered by the virus:

 

Italy: 9.9%
Spain: 16.1%
UK: 16.1%
USA: 16.7%

 

It's pretty clear that early, aggressive efforts to test and isolate reveal better results in the short term. Now, how are some individual states doing? The numbers may surprise you, and I'll tell you why folks in California should not be getting frustrated by the static figures we're seeing right now.

 

So, first off, let's talk about New York. Their current percentage of positive tests is terrible and the main reason why the USA's is so bad as a whole: 33.2%. That's abysmal, one of the worst in the world. Every third person who gets tested there pulls up a positive result.

 

However, we've been told that New York is doing better. And they are, even if they're still not where they should be. They've conducted over 350,000 tests in the last 2 weeks, but only pulled in around 75,000 of their 319,000 positives. So their number has dropped to 21% in that stretch. It's still bad, but clearly an improvement. They are trending nicely.

 

Now, let's do California. People were ****ting on our testing early in the month, and rightfully so. Despite all our efforts to isolate, we still brought in positives 11.3% of the time just two weeks ago. Not in New York's tier, but much further from South Korea's than we would like.

 

However, we've been reporting 20,000-30,000 tests a day for the past week, which is fantastic. Our new number? 7.6% since the start of the pandemic and 6.4% over the last two weeks, even lower than Germany's. Our number of positives has been only slightly above what we were seeing three weeks ago, but we're testing like crazy now. That's great news.

 

Finally, here are some states that you wouldn't think of as being highly impacted by the pandemic and their percentage of positive tests:

 

Utah: 4.2%
Oregon: 4.3%
Tennessee: 6.5%
Washington: 8%

 

And some other states that are hotspots:

 

Louisiana: 16.9% (7.9% this week)
Pennsylvania: 21.6% (19.4% this week)
Massachusetts: 22.2% (18% this week)
New Jersey: 47.5% (37.5% this week)

 

So I'll say this to all the protesters whining about not being able to go to the beach: chill out. Things are improving, even if you have to break out the calculator for a second to put a number to it. Crazy to me that California has a lower percentage of positive tests coming in than Washington, but that is a testament to how well we've handled this on the west coast. Ultimately, the goal should be limiting deaths and getting the numbers of positive tests down. Many states are trending down in the latter, even if things are changing very slowly regarding the former.

 

Source for the numbers was a mix of Worldometers and covidtracking.com.

Edited by Bacon
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One last thing I wanted to add to my previous post. For those of you who are understandably concerned about the slowing of testing and testing suppression in the US, this past week has been the US' most consistently prolific yet, at least in terms of reporting:

 

Average tests per day reported April 26-May 2: 231,385

 

Average tests per day reported April 4-25: 178,790

 

Additionally, our testing per million is now nearly 21,000, not far from Canada's 22,000 and above Hong Kong and Finland.

 

The shame of it is how long it took us to reach this point. Russia is far ahead of us with a very recent surge. We would be progressing far more quickly if the federal government wasn't actively impeding the efforts, but it's not like the numbers we've been bringing in are based on a lower number of tests than previous weeks. The opposite is true.

 

It would be great if there was a place that reported the number of tests conducted each day, but this is the best stat we have now for the country as a whole.

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Watching Tapper on CNN. Good lord Kudlow is drunker than Rudy ever was. 
 

I have no idea how we’re gonna slow this thing down with all these people running around. I did see the doc from Oxford talking about his vaccine. Sounds promising.
 

He thinks that it will be efficacious but that the safety is a bigger unknown at this point. They have done all pre clinical steps, mice, ferrets, primates. Many others have not.


He thinks it will be a seasonal vaccination, not a one time deal. I can’t imagine the pressure of trying to save the world. Let’s get this done.

Edited by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy
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