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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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27 minutes ago, volsmet said:


What gives Queen the edge over Murray for you, JMU?

Not personal for me. I was just trying to stick to the draft board for consistency. Other than DeAndre Swift (who Miller has as his #14 overall prospect) Queen was usually the top player at 18 (he's #15 on his board). I like Murray, a lot.

 

*Edit: I also really like Matt Miller and listen to the stick to football podcast, so I tend to choose his draft-boards when I run fanspeak. He's super high on DeAndre Swift, but there was no way I would take him at #18 (and I thin he'd argue that because of positional value, Swift shouldn't go in the Top 15 either.

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3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Not personal for me. I was just trying to stick to the draft board for consistency. Other than DeAndre Swift (who Miller has as his #14 overall prospect) Queen was usually the top player at 18 (he's #15 on his board). I like Murray, a lot.


Queen seems to play with advanced instincts, while Murray flashes with his explosion more consistently. I can’t wait to see how their work out numbers compare. If trading down, each are appealing. Watching the Dallas LBs get smoked all year made me shy away from my affinity for the athlete & weigh the ability to read & navigate more heavily, particularly when you see a guy like Queen playing, as he did, in the sec west & v Clemson. Murray gets the edge for me right now, but I’m interested in reading how you & others compare those two.

 

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Here's my dream scenario. I think it could happen. But in a perfect world it's a 3-team trade with Detroit and Miami. In this scenario it involves risk (in terms of losing Chase) for Washington.

 

Miami calls Washington and offers 5, 18, 39 and a 5th. We accept.

Washington immediately calls Detroit and says 5 and 18 are yours if we can come up and get 3 again. Detroit accepts.

1.3. Chase Young, Edge. Ohio State

 

Second round pick comes up, we say there's a lot of guys we like here, and this is playing with house money, let's trade down. Rams offer 2.20 and 3.20 to move up to 2.7. Washington accepts.

 

2.20: Damon Arnette, CB Ohio State

3.2: Malik Jefferson, LB Ohio State

3.20: Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU

4.2: KJ Hill, WR Ohio State

4.38: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE Mizzou

5.2: Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota

5.17: Anthony McFarland, RB Maryland

 

Why would Detroit do this deal? Well they need a CB, DE, DT, LB ...you name it they need it. At #3 they can have Chase. But at #5 they can have Derrick Brown, Jeff Okudah or Isaiah Simmons AND add #18, where they could address one of those positions pretty hard (Fulton, Queen, Murray, Epenesa, Chaisson).

 

I don't know. Just spitballing. But I would think Detroit would accept 5+18 today from Miami for #3. Would it be enough for them to pass on Chase? Because they could get impact players at other positions of need at 5, I could see them doing it.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I mean, sure...I wouldn't be surprised if the Burrow/Tua thing was neck and neck at that point. But that was before Tua had a devastating season ending injury. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if a couple of teams watch Tua throw in shorts and a tshirt and get starry eyed again and decide to try and go for it. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Tua remains injury prone and never reaches the potential some people see for him. He didn't miss a whole lot of time but the guy just can't seem to stay healthy. 3 ankle injuries isn't it? Two of which he had to have surgery for? A knee sprain, a quad injury, broken fingers. Then the hip dislocation and fracture which also required surgery. 

 

Is he just super unlucky?

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6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I mean, sure...I wouldn't be surprised if the Burrow/Tua thing was neck and neck at that point. But that was before Tua had a devastating season ending injury. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if a couple of teams watch Tua throw in shorts and a tshirt and get starry eyed again and decide to try and go for it. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Tua remains injury prone and never reaches the potential some people see for him. He didn't miss a whole lot of time but the guy just can't seem to stay healthy. 3 ankle injuries isn't it? Two of which he had to have surgery for? A knee sprain, a quad injury, broken fingers. Then the hip dislocation and fracture which also required surgery. 

 

Is he just super unlucky?


DeShaun Watson slipped because of injury, he tore his acl, broke his collarbone, had another knee injury, and then tore his other acl as a rookie. There were also questions about arm strength and ability to read the intermediate game.


 

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5 minutes ago, volsmet said:


DeShaun Watson slipped because of injury, he tore his acl, broke his collarbone, had another knee injury, and then tore his other acl as a rookie. There were also questions about arm strength and ability to read the intermediate game.


 

 

That's true. And I'm not necessarily saying that Tua's injury history means he won't make it in the NFL. I'm just saying that it's a legit concern, just as it was with Watson which, as you noted, is one of the reasons he fell. 

 

Another difference there is that Watson tore his ACL his freshman year and had two years of game tape after that to show that it hadn't permanently affected his game. Tua is the opposite. He had a really bad season ending injury which required surgery at the end of his final year and nobody has seen him play a down since. There's no way to know if he'll be the same guy or not. 

 

Just saying IMO it's a realistic thing to question and worry about. Especially if you're a team thinking of giving up multiple picks to move up for a guy you're planning on building your team around.

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I will freely and admittedly admit that I am a novice at this. But, I have a gut feeling that this draft could make or break the Skins. We are in the enviable position of being in the hunt for a premier DE, or QB. These opportunities do not present themselves very often. Analyzing the current state of the team and deciding on our future could very well hang on this draft and have a lasting impact for the next 10 years.

 

It is entirely possible that the top 3 prospects in this draft could have lasting impacts on the teams that select them, pro bowl caliber for sure.

 

Now, the Skins have drafted heavily on the D line these past several years and have a solid core of players on D. Adding Chase Young would make them (on paper) dominate, but we have been saying that for the past couple of years. Was it scheme, coaching, or something else that held them back, only this change in management will really tell. It is my opinion, that is is scheme and coaching. The talent is there and ready to take off, without Chase Young. With Chase, it can be, if coached correctly, really excellent.

 

Is Chase needed for this? Not really, he just makes it better.

 

The real issue is the Offense. For decades, this team has not been able to put a good O and D on the field at one time. It has been either one or the other, but never both. The O is the extreme weak link.

 

We are in the enviable position to obtain either Burrow or Tua. Either would elevate our O so far beyond what is is today.

 

Haskins, in my opinion, is just a project. He has shown nothing to get anyone excited and has acted like an entitled diva. 

 

We need top get a top level QB who has shown year after year that they are ready for the pros. Take either Tua or Burrows in the draft, trade or drop Haskins.

 

Start over.

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On 10/20/2019 at 8:27 PM, volsmet said:


He definitely has a legit shot at #1 overall if he shreds Bama & puts on an impressive display in the playoff. He doesn’t necessarily need to be brilliant v Bama or make the playoff, but it’s the most direct path to #1 overall. Tua now has a recurring issue ... you never know, he may return, he may get passed if a medical issue becomes more significant.

 

*

Burrow is the QB I’m looking forward to watching most.

 


Before Tua’s injury issues were considered serious by the masses, weeks before the LSU game, I was here talking about this. 

 

 

9F596D69-34BD-4905-8B72-F14DFE629956.gif

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30 minutes ago, rick7423 said:

I will freely and admittedly admit that I am a novice at this. But, I have a gut feeling that this draft could make or break the Skins. We are in the enviable position of being in the hunt for a premier DE, or QB. These opportunities do not present themselves very often. Analyzing the current state of the team and deciding on our future could very well hang on this draft and have a lasting impact for the next 10 years.

 

It is entirely possible that the top 3 prospects in this draft could have lasting impacts on the teams that select them, pro bowl caliber for sure.

 

Now, the Skins have drafted heavily on the D line these past several years and have a solid core of players on D. Adding Chase Young would make them (on paper) dominate, but we have been saying that for the past couple of years. Was it scheme, coaching, or something else that held them back, only this change in management will really tell. It is my opinion, that is is scheme and coaching. The talent is there and ready to take off, without Chase Young. With Chase, it can be, if coached correctly, really excellent.

 

Is Chase needed for this? Not really, he just makes it better.

 

The real issue is the Offense. For decades, this team has not been able to put a good O and D on the field at one time. It has been either one or the other, but never both. The O is the extreme weak link.

 

We are in the enviable position to obtain either Burrow or Tua. Either would elevate our O so far beyond what is is today.

 

Haskins, in my opinion, is just a project. He has shown nothing to get anyone excited and has acted like an entitled diva. 

 

We need top get a top level QB who has shown year after year that they are ready for the pros. Take either Tua or Burrows in the draft, trade or drop Haskins.

 

Start over.

 

Unpopular opinion here, but I agree with you. People have to be realistic, Haskins can be a top 10 QB, sure but that's his ceiling imo. Tua I believe can reach that elite tier of QBs and has the work ethic to become great. The absolute best case scenario I can see for Haskins is he turns into a similar player to Big Ben but the chances of that are extremely low. I don't think the Skins will choose a QB though, Kyle Smith seemed excited enough about him to make me believe that we won't go in that direction, even though I think we should. 

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Miami outperformed expectations this year, but they’re still the favorite to be the worst team in the nfl next year, their 2021 #1 may be the key to unlocking super bowl championships. 
 

In a perfect world #2 could land us:

 

#5: Simmons

#18: Thomas

2nd round: Diggs

2021 #1: Trevor Lawrence

 

We may be picking near the top of that draft ourselves, perhaps we add Sewell with our pick.

 

 

F8F83826-A739-4844-A425-0524A391BC44.gif

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11 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

This is the exact recipe for missing on superstars and ending up with a bunch of JAGs, a few "good" players, but no game changers. You say "we have too many holes" and draft for need or move back to try and fill holes. It's how we missed out on JJ Watt, and it's how we missed out on Derwin James, while both were sitting there in our laps. We need to stop that noise and take the best player available, especially when there's a guy sitting there who's the best prospect at his position in the past decade. 

 

I wouldn't even start to listen unless Miami said "hear us out, hear us out...we'll give you all 3 of our 1sts this year AND a 1st next year" and then I'd poke a bit from there to find out what else they'd be willing to give up. Then I'd begin to consider it. 

 

And Miami isn't going to give all of that up to move to 2. If it's true that they like Herbert as well they'll most likely sit at 5, take whichever one of Tua or Herbert falls to them, and then use their remaining picks to work towards filling in their roster. If they're really infatuated with Tua I see it more likely that they'd try to move up to 3. I'm sure they assume that our asking price for #2 would be astronomical and probably wouldn't even bother. 

Not sure you read what I wrote..but here it is in short form

 

Trade down with Miami 

Get the 5 and the 18 and a 2021 first 

Don’t forget the extra picks we will get over the 18th and next years 1st....


You think the 5 and 18 will result in crap players? Maybe start a new thread calling for the heads of the new Front Office

 

You think that 2021 1st would be low in the first round? I don’t...I’d be willing to bet it’s a top 15

 

We can’t get an elite OT @ 5? With zero blue chip talent left at 18? 
I Bet Simmons is there at 5...more I watch his film, the more I like him, still not convinced  LB at 5 is the best move..

I wouldn’t cry over that pick though...still prefer a OT at 5 

 

If my Miami  trade down prediction is accurate 5th pick, 18th, next year top 15 1st rounder

 

Here is what your losing to pick CY

18th pick 1st round 

Another high 1st rounder 

plus prob. a couple 4ths or 5ths 

No thanks....I’ll take 

 

Simmons plus two extra 1st...and change..or a LT that protects Haskins blindside the next ten seasons..

If we don’t take a tackle NOW we aren’t going to get a blue chip LT for another decade....our picks will be to low 

after 2021....that I'm sure about 

 

Plus the right OL plugs two holes...RT now, until TW leaves,  then flop to left...

 


 

Another one I really like, 

 

Swap with Detroit, still get CY and pickup a second...

With that deal, I’m going WR best avail. With the 2nd


And mark my words...this Tua injury will be a non issue....he will check out fine, he will put out tape showing he’s fine, then people are going to start wondering if he’s a better pick then Barrow.....

 

I wouldn’t be at all surprised with Tua going 1st over all....with barrow sitting there at 2.

If that happened, there would be a feeding frenzy for that number 2, that would scare off a pride of lions! 
 



 

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8 hours ago, volsmet said:


Queen seems to play with advanced instincts, while Murray flashes with his explosion more consistently. I can’t wait to see how their work out numbers compare. If trading down, each are appealing. Watching the Dallas LBs get smoked all year made me shy away from my affinity for the athlete & weigh the ability to read & navigate more heavily, particularly when you see a guy like Queen playing, as he did, in the sec west & v Clemson. Murray gets the edge for me right now, but I’m interested in reading how you & others compare those two.

 

I am a huge fan of Queen. His instincts make him so much quicker than his time speeds will show. SIP posted a number of times on Queen a while back that really opened my eyes to him. He is 10 year plug and play guy who could become the defensive captain. Sign me up in mid first round

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13 hours ago, Riggo'sRangers said:

I am so torn on Chase to be honest. However, if Tua gets a full clean bill of health on March 9th, as expected, we can get a serious haul of draft picks, be it Tua or Burrow.  It may be too much to pass up in rational thought. I am a 100% Chase guy, but damn, if we can get 2 1sts & a 2nd (or 3 1sts!!!)...I just don't see how we can intellectually pass that up.  Trust me, I desperately want Chase, and will absolutely not be disappointed with his pick regardless, but we can't fall in love with one guy (see RG3) and ignore what we can do to improve across the board.  It is going to be a helluva time until the draft. I like our position and hope we use it to our advantage.  Tough choices coming. Hail

For me it would be Tua or the draft haul at this point. As great as Chase is, and he's a once in a decade type talent, other than LT, I can't think of any edge guy that really transformed a teams fortunes, I can think of great front seven's, and great front four's, but even w/the bulk of them, they're usually together for only a brief time before free agency starts interfering and we all already know that we have immense money required to hold onto what makes our DL potentially great w/o Chase, w/Chase, it would dwarf the spending we could put almost everywhere. Allen is a '17, Payne is an '18, Chase is a '20, we just paid Iron Man big money, those bills for the rest come due in near succession, '22, '23, '25. So we basically have a max of two seasons w/this line fully intact if we pay Allen's option year, and we suck right now so that great line will only potentially get us somewhere in '21, and that's a stretch to me.

 

I honestly think, we need to build for '22 and beyond, and the best way to do that is with a legit franchise QB project, or the kind of draft haul that can put us in position for Trevor Lawrence next year if Haskins sucks in '20 or is just unconvincing. 

 

I'm beginning to feel as if Chase is a luxury we can't really afford. 

 

I still love the situation we landed in via an immense amount of luck and the inadvertant tanking that I always support and SO MANY FANS OPPOSE (Don't want players to quit, just want the F.O. to put the team in position to tank a la Miami): Our situation is currently:

1. Draft the consensus #1 over QB from the summer, and a QB considered probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck (going into fall '19) in Tua. 

2. Trade down for a draft haul analogous to almost everything the Browns managed to collect during the Sashi Brown years.

3. Draft the best Edge Rusher prospect of the past 10 years. 

 

 

All of this is because the Giants stupidly beat us, and Miami, and Detroit, won just enough games to throw us from a near lock to pick 1.03-1.04, to 1.02 instead. Can we all see the value of tanking now, or are we stubbornly still obssessed with the value of finishing 5-11 or 6-10 instead of 2-14 /3-13 especially in "great draft classes/Blue Chip Classes". 

 

It's a fantastic situation to be in and about 1000x better than it looked like it would be in early December just 2 and a half months ago. 

11 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's my dream scenario. I think it could happen. But in a perfect world it's a 3-team trade with Detroit and Miami. In this scenario it involves risk (in terms of losing Chase) for Washington.

 

Miami calls Washington and offers 5, 18, 39 and a 5th. We accept.

Washington immediately calls Detroit and says 5 and 18 are yours if we can come up and get 3 again. Detroit accepts.

1.3. Chase Young, Edge. Ohio State

 

Second round pick comes up, we say there's a lot of guys we like here, and this is playing with house money, let's trade down. Rams offer 2.20 and 3.20 to move up to 2.7. Washington accepts.

 

2.20: Damon Arnette, CB Ohio State

3.2: Malik Jefferson, LB Ohio State

3.20: Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU

4.2: KJ Hill, WR Ohio State

4.38: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE Mizzou

5.2: Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota

5.17: Anthony McFarland, RB Maryland

 

Why would Detroit do this deal? Well they need a CB, DE, DT, LB ...you name it they need it. At #3 they can have Chase. But at #5 they can have Derrick Brown, Jeff Okudah or Isaiah Simmons AND add #18, where they could address one of those positions pretty hard (Fulton, Queen, Murray, Epenesa, Chaisson).

 

I don't know. Just spitballing. But I would think Detroit would accept 5+18 today from Miami for #3. Would it be enough for them to pass on Chase? Because they could get impact players at other positions of need at 5, I could see them doing it.

Hmmm, the scent of 1999, the one shining moment of the Casserly regime (really, the one, after day 1 of the draft, he vomited all over the rest of the haul rounds 3-7, and others were allowed to use the '20 asset(s?). 

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Chase is basically 6'5" with 34 inch arms. The length and athleticism of our 2 DE's would be outstanding. 

 

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Simmons is a pterodactyl 

You really high on that dude.

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Baller Alert! Vision, ball skills, swag and speed. I was excited about Barkley a couple years ago. This guy has the IT factor IMO. I also think we have our size/possession/red zone guys in Cam, Hermon and (I suppose) whatever TE we obtain. Terry, S. Sims and this guy would be dangerous.

 

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10 minutes ago, joeken24 said:

Baller Alert! Vision, ball skills, swag and speed. I was excited about Barkley a couple years ago. This guy has the IT factor IMO. I also think we have our size/possession/red zone guys in Cam, Hermon and (I suppose) whatever TE we obtain. Terry, S. Sims and this guy would be dangerous


I was enamored with your guy when I watched bits of PSU games this season,  but when I really focused on him this winter I couldn’t help but vomit while watching the football repeatedly hit the turf.

 

 

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23 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Those are all good comparisons.  I compared Jones to Alex Smith or Eli, but Tannehill is a better one.  No comparison of play-style is ever going to work 1:1 but Zierlein does a particularly good job of comparing styles of play.  I suspect he gets help from conversations with his scouting friends when he makes them.

 

As far as his grades go, most of those are good.  The only egregious ones are Watson, Baker, and Mahomes, but he changed his grading scale at some point in order to match a more widely used NFL scale.  They would likely have much higher grades on his current scale, even without the benefit of hindsight.  Also very few people saw Mahomes coming.  Allen  needs to go up a few points too, but his college tape was awful.  I don't begrudge him the high Darnold grade either, although I would have switched that one with Baker Mayfield's.  He could still end up being right about Darnold.

 

I think those number grades are a useful illustration of the fact that these top QB prospects are way closer together than people realize when they come out of college.  The draftnik conversation about these kids is so heavily biased with trash groupthink, grass is greener mentality, and hype to the point where you have widespread beliefs in things like next year's top QB prospects will be twice as good as this year's, etc.  And it gets reinforced by lousy ex post facto analysis that perpetuates myths about quarterbacking and drafting and developing the position.  Stuff that usually ignores the huge role that teams play in ruining and failing to properly develop and support QB prospects.

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