2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Vols on Simmons first.  I talked about him during the college season.  I recall SteveMcQueen among others, too.   But yep, it's true no one has shown Simmons that type of love as you have.  You and Simmons are like what I was with Guice before the 2018 draft.

 

 

 

 

That's okay. I think you can claim every single tight end as yours.

 

That doesn't sound right.

 

You leave no loose ends with the tight ends.

 

No, that doesn't sound right either.

 

You can claim to have the tight end.

 

Damnit. No. Not that either.

 

You get my point. 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

That's okay. I think you can claim every single tight end as yours.

 

That doesn't sound right.

 

You leave no loose ends with the tight ends.

 

No, that doesn't sound right either.

 

You can claim to have the tight end.

 

Damnit. No. Not that either.

 

You get my point. 

 

I am never going to look at the TE position the same after that post.  😀

 

I am taking a leap on tight ends.  The conventional wisdom so to speak from the draft geeks is that this is a bad TE class.  I initially agreed with that but as I dived into individual players, I am going against the grain on that point.  I agree that there are no obvious A listers. 

 

 I think there are about 6 TEs in this draft who are B level players with A potential.  And 3 others who are maybe C plus level who also have potential.  I want a TE as badly in this draft as a WR and CB.  Last year was a big ballyhooed TE class.  I actually think this year is as deep as last year but is missing the headliner types -- none of these guys are worth first round picks but I do think 3rd-5th round is good value for a bunch of them.   I've laid it out why in detail.  😀  But I want to see their athleticism today.   I've ranked these guys before but I'll rerank them tomorrow after the combine.  I am sure everyone here is waiting for those rankings with baited breath.   😂

[KDawg]

Actually, I appreciate all of your tight end input. I haven’t had much time to dive deep in the class, but I watch bits and pieces of the stuff you post. Haven’t commented because I haven’t watched enough in detail.

 

But I appreciate it.

 

I coached tight ends when I coached college ball. So it’s fun to see and read.

[Skinsinparadise]

Speaking of us having our guys so to speak.  I know Hodgins is one of @stevemcqueen1's guys.  It was hard for me to conjure up a definitive opinion based on the only 2 games I could find of him on You Tube.  But i continually like what i've read about him.

 

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Actually, I appreciate all of your tight end input. I haven’t had much time to dive deep in the class, but I watch bits and pieces of the stuff you post. Haven’t commented because I haven’t watched enough in detail.

 

But I appreciate it.

 

I coached tight ends when I coached college ball. So it’s fun to see and read.

 

Didn't know that as for you coaching TEs.   The thing I struggle with the most is judging blocking.  With some it's really obvious -- the people mover types.   The willingness seems to be easy to spot, too.  The part that I struggle with is are players that aren't people movers, they more or less contain their target as opposed to moving them.  Some contain them for longer than others so I usually judge them being better at it as opposed to those that have their hands on the target for just half a second, etc and then lose their grip. 

 

It's also easier harder for me to judge some of their speed as to the long strider types, hence I am fascinated by today's 40 times then probably any other combine I've watched.  Most TE's are tall and have long strides.  Take a guy like Cole Kmet.  I think he's a complete TE.  I think he's fast enough but its hard to tell.  If he runs let's say a 4.85 today, that would change my opinion.

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Didn't know that as for you coaching TEs.   The thing I struggle with the most is judging blocking.  With some it's really obvious -- the people mover types.   The willingness seems to be easy to spot, too.  The part that I struggle with is are players that aren't people movers, they more or less contain their target as opposed to moving them.  Some contain them for longer than others so I usually judge them being better at it as opposed to those that have their hands on the target for just half a second, etc and then lose their grip. 

 

It's also easier harder for me to judge some of their speed as to the long strider types, hence I am fascinated by today's 40 times then probably any other combine I've watched.  Most TE's are tall and have long strides.  Take a guy like Cole Kmet.  I think he's a complete TE.  I think he's fast enough but its hard to tell.  If he runs let's say a 4.85 today, that would change my opinion.

 

For tight ends, you don't really need a people mover. You need a guy who takes the right steps and cuts off the attacker from the point of attack. Good feet and balance. 

 

He can't get driven back, but he can simply act as a wall.

 

Getting a guy who can drive a guy is nice, but unnecessary. Backs looks for daylight, not the guy who is being moved the furthest off the LoS. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

For tight ends, you don't really need a people mover. You need a guy who takes the right steps and cuts off the attacker from the point of attack. Good feet and balance. 

 

He can't get driven back, but he can simply act as a wall.

 

Getting a guy who can drive a guy is nice, but unnecessary. Backs looks for daylight, not the guy who is being moved the furthest off the LoS. 

 

Good point and I agree.  People movers are rare anyway.  From the TE's I watched the only 2 from what I observed are people movers (but only from time to time) are Kmet and Trautman.  Pickney isn't a people mover but I like him as a blocker.   Harrison Bryant and Hopkins get knocked for their blocking but I think they are underrated on that front -- they are though inconsistent. 

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Speaking of us having our guys so to speak.  I know Hodgins is one of @stevemcqueen1's guys.  It was hard for me to conjure up a definitive opinion based on the only 2 games I could find of him on You Tube.  But i continually like what i've read about him. 

 

He's going to be underdrafted IMO.  The expectation is that his 40 will be really slow, and that'll pretty much cap him off at day three.  Zierlein isn't that high on him, and cites his speed an inability to beat press coverage as concern.  And to be fair, you do see a lot of intermediate and deep stuff in his film where he's not getting a lot of separation.  But I think he's overstating Hodgins's problems against press and underselling the quality of his release game.  Hodgins has a legit cross-over that's nasty.  One of the reasons why I thought he was a lot shorter than 6'4 the first time I watched him was because of how fluid and sudden his changes of direction are.  His double move game is nasty too.  And he's a tough cover even when you stay in phase with him because he can jump up over your or snatch the super difficult catches out of the air.  If he has a QB that trusts him, he's going to put up production.

 

Geronimo Allison is Zierlein's comparison, but Hodgins was a far better college player than Allison.  He was legitimately one of the best WRs in CFB this year, and deserved All American looks.  PFF put him on their second team.  I think Kenny Golladay is a better comparison of his playing style and ceiling.  Golladay got drafted at the end of the third round in 2017.  He was super under-drafted, but I think he's a good example of how Hodgins could be a third or fourth round value.  I think he might end up going in the sixth round though, NFL people are ****ing crazy about some 40 times.  It is super overrated.

 

If he were to run a low 4.5 40 though, then I think other people would start comparing him to Golladay too.  That could change his draft range.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Overheard at a bar in Indianapolis:

 

(Miami staff enters the room, approaches Ron and Kyle)

 

Washington: Hey (Miami) ...how's it going.

 

Miami: Good, Good. Lot's of talent here huh? Hey look, I am just trying to figure out what it's going to take to get to #2. Heard you said it would be unlikely that we could come to terms.

 

Washington: No ... no actually I don't think we are interested in trading down to #5. We really like the idea of adding Tua, Burrow or Chase in this draft. Just too much top-end talent to trade off of. We are leaving this draft with one of Chase, Burrow or Tua no matter what, and we do not feel theres any chance to do that from #5.

 

Miami: Okay, I understand and respect that. We would like to get to #2 so that we can ensure that we get the quarterback that we want. And we'd like to be in position to do so sooner rather than later so we can help piece together our off-season plan and approach Free Agency knowing we have our QB of the future penciled in. And we are a bit worried about Detroit, or you, quite frankly.

 

Washington: Honestly, if you want us to fall all the way down to 5 it's going to take more than you're probably willing to offer. I think we'd start the conversation with #5, #18, #26 and your 2021 1st and 2nd. Probably include your 3rd this year too.

 

Miami: Jesus Christ.

Washington: But look, there is a lot of talent there in the Top 3. We haven't decided yet whether we are going to stick with what we have at QB or go another direction. Like I said, we need to leave this draft with one of the two big QBs, or Chase Young. So this would probably be a different conversation if you had Detroit's pick. I think the cost to move down to #3 would be a lot less. And if you could get to #3 and not give up too much, it is a conversation we could be willing to have. Of course, Detroit may also be looking to swap with us at #2 at some point, too, if these rumors are to be believed.

 

Miami: I see .. well, have a great day

 

(Later that evening).

 

Miami: Matt Patricia! Hey ... how's it going?

__________________________________

 

And this is how I hope the conversations in Indianapolis are unfolding.

 

Detroit gets #5 and #26 to move off #3. Still get their pick of Derrick Brown, Okudah or Simmons at #5.

Miami then calls us up, gives us #56 and their 2021 2nd round pick to swap #2 and #3

Washington drafts Chase at #3, adds pick #56 and a future 2nd

 

Miami gets to #2 to draft Tua and gives up #5, #26, #56 and a 2021 2nd, which looks like a bargain compared to #5, #18, #26 and 2021 1st we threw out to them initially. Miami retains #18, #39 and all of their mid-round picks, plus both 1sts and a 2nd in 2021.

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[KDawg]

How does a hand measure 8 4/8"? Wouldn't math make that 8 1/2"?

 

Why do I see this stuff and have that come immediately into my head? Why?!

[skinzplay]

In all likelihood, the Bengals will be in this exact same situation again next year, sitting pretty with the top pick (with some challenge from Detroit for that honor). Just like the Lions, the Bengals have a terrible coaching staff that ain't gonna develop anybody. The veterans carried their position groups. I feel sorry for any QB who goes to either of those teams. After Van Pelt left for Cleveland, didn't Cincy simply promote the keg attendant to QB coach? If I were an agent, I wouldn't have any confidence at all in my guy going there.

 

On a related note, Cincy will have a very good shot at Lawrence next year, and I think the owner knows it. We'll see what happens. I think they take Young (even though they have no DC), or trade out of that first spot.

[The Consigliere]

https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/anchor-podcasts/the-breakout-finder-podcast

 

Great resource for Scott Barrett of PFF on playmaker prospects of the '20 drafts. Talk is heavy on RB's and WR's. A lot of love for Moss, and some real amazing nuggets about Jalen Reagor including:

 

His ADOT has mirroed 2021 Consensus #1 WR Jamaar Chase's ADOT at a crazy 13.6 over the past two years (very helpful stat).

Reagor was open on 73% of his targets, top 5 in the class, Jeudy was the best at this (Chase finished at 69%, again, the top WR prospect in next years class and #1 ranked playmaker for 2021 in Dynasty)

 

Craziest Stat: while Chase's targets were 65% accurate, Reagor's were 37% accurate, easily the worst in the nation by far amongst WR prospects. 

 

Curtis Patrick has him #1 for quite a while, Barrett has him as easily inside his top 5, locked in. 

 

Don't think it matters unless we trade down, he's murdered all the strength related material going in, measured fine, and is expected to curb stomp the combine, so barring a trade down, he'll be a top 10-25 pick. 

 

Barrett Loves Moss, I think he's his #2 or #3 back in his model, but he suspects he'll have to drop him based on draft capital. If Moss actually tests okay, he could fly up some boards. Apparently he blows up the missed tackle metric, a very helpful metric w/only one noticable major prat fall recently (Monty, who apparently didn't have all the positives Moss has going into this year). 

 

 

 

[Lovi]

23 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Is it normal to have such a discrepancy in hand sizes as well?  Why is one so much shorter than the other?

[HTTRDynasty]

 

Just now, Lovi said:

 

Is it normal to have such a discrepancy in hand sizes as well?  Why is one so much shorter than the other?

It says in the tweet. He apparently has a pinky deformation in that hand. 

[Lovi]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

It says in the tweet. He apparently has a pinky deformation in that hand. 

 

Right.  Should have kept reading.  Thanks.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[KDawg]

They want CEH to play WR? That's... odd.

 

Claypool to TE. Sign me up. I think he's my tight end pick. 

 

Also, I know SIP posted about it the other day, but I'm listening to a draft podcast with Kiper and McShay...

 

Kiper: "If I'm talking about how valuable the second pick is because of Tua, then why if you're the Redskins would you pass on Tua?

 

McShay: "Because of your owner. That's it. I mean, what did you see from Dwayne Haskins that leads you to believe that he's gonna be the guy moving forward and he's gonna take you to a Super Bowl? I mean, I know it's only one year, but you have to have MAJOR concerns about Haskins going forward."

 

Kiper: "Well, you know what you do Todd, because you don't know what Dwayne's going to be. To his defense, he's a rookie and he had a bad team around him."

 

McShay: "Yeah. Yeah."

 

Kiper: "I'll go this. What's your grade on Haskins, what's your grade on Tua? Big difference?

 

McShay: "If you're talking about coming out last year, Tua is SIGNIFICANTLY higher."

 

Kiper: "Right. So it's not like you're saying I'm going to base it all on a rookie year. You're not basing it on Dwayne. Every rookie is gonna struggle, except Daniel Jones. But all the other rookies will normally struggle on a bad team. So, in this case, my point is, if you're the Redskins... Todd McShay is the GM. Todd McShay is the new GM of the Redskins, what are you doing at 2?"

 

McShay: "Well, I talked to a coach who was considering, who was in the running potentially to take this job. We had a long discussion about what I would do. I said first of all, you have to have full control over personnel. I said that starts with the quarterbacks. You're drafting at 2 and there is very likely going to be a better quarterback there. And so I would take, I would take if the medical came back like we're talking about and we're comfortable with moving forward, I would take Tua. I bring him in and I let him compete with Haskins. I assume Tua wins out that job. You give Haskins a full year as Tua continues to get healthy. Worst case, Tua gets healthy a year from now, Tua wins the job and you trade Haskins and get some value."

 

Kiper: "Yeah, Steve Walsh/Troy Aikman."

 

McShay: "Yeah. To me you can make up for more sins at quarterback than any position on the field and its not even freakin' close. So, why in the world would you pass up on upgrading potentially significantly that quarterback position, in order to take Chase Young, who I think is a great player, and I think he's going to be one of the elite pass rushers in the entire NFL one day, but to me if you don't get that quarterback position right you're going to continue to be a sub-500 team and you're not going to come close. And Daniel Snyder, to his credit, according to this coach I spoke to, Daniel Snyder is embarrassed by how this organization has played and he is ready to try to make the turn and do anything that he can. Problem is, can he get out of his own way?"

 

Kiper: "Trust his people."

 

McShay: "Yeah."

[HTTRDynasty]

Is this the same Mel Kiper who thinks Daniel Jones had a great rookie season?

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Is this the same Mel Kiper who thinks Daniel Jones had a great rookie season?

 

And the same McShay that thinks he's insane. It's McShay making the point, though.

 

Did you read the transcript? He literally says that in it 

[HTTRDynasty]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

And the same McShay that thinks he's insane. It's McShay making the point, though.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion 🙂.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion 🙂.

 

Absolutely. 

 

It's an interesting to read. Many of you think I'm off my rocker. But guys who do this for a living are in agreement. As are a few others around here. So clearly, I'm not all that out there

 

And yes, I respect McShay. Later in the podcast he crushes Kiper for his Jones love

[Going Commando]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Kiper: "I'll go this. What's your grade on Haskins, what's your grade on Tua? Big difference?

 

McShay: "If you're talking about coming out last year, Tua is SIGNIFICANTLY higher."

 

If they're going to talk about grading prospects, perhaps they should actually do it.  And then publish them for the public to read, and leave it up for posterity.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If they're going to talk about grading prospects, perhaps they should actually do it.  And then publish them for the public to read, and leave it up for posterity.

 

Hey, not a bad point. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

14 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't think I've seen him that high in a mock but you never know.  He's a stud LB. 

 

I don't think I have either.  But there are a few things working in his favor:

 

1) It's a deep WR class, so if say, Oakland really wants a WR...they can still grab a high quality one at #19 (or whatever their other 1st rounder is), or even a 2nd round pick.

2) There's a big drop off in LB talent from the top of the class.  People are hoping an undersized Edge player can project to Off-Ball LB, as he's either the 3rd or 4th best LB prospect in the draft.

3) The combine is going to help Queen's draft stock.

 

Odds of a team grabbing a good WR prospect later in the 1st round or into the 2nd round?  High.

Odds the last good all around LB prospect is still there later in the 1st round?  Iffy.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Claypool to TE. Sign me up. I think he's my tight end pick. 

 

Do you know of any Claypool games which show his blocking?  I only saw 2, but there was basically no blocking in either of them.  Bryan Edwards on the other hand, had some good blocking snaps.

 

Quote

 

McShay: "Because of your owner. That's it. I mean, what did you see from Dwayne Haskins that leads you to believe that he's gonna be the guy moving forward and he's gonna take you to a Super Bowl? I mean, I know it's only one year, but you have to have MAJOR concerns about Haskins going forward."

 

 

I guess I've been blissfully ignorant of McShay's stance on Haskins in 2019.  I don't really feel like googling it, so I'm just going to assume he stopped watching Haskins after his relief outings against the Giants/Vikings earlier in the season.

 

Quote

Kiper: "I'll go this. What's your grade on Haskins, what's your grade on Tua? Big difference?

 

McShay: "If you're talking about coming out last year, Tua is SIGNIFICANTLY higher."

 

Of course, that's comparing 2018 Tua to 2018 Haskins.  If you go through a checklist, I don't know how 2018 Tua wouldn't have graded significantly higher than 2018 Haskins.

 

Tua had more experience, he'd been in 2 championship games, winning 1.  Tua hit the ground running whereas Dwayne slowly developed in his lone college season.  2018 Haskins in September had some real flaws, he flashed both positives and negatives (specifically the Penn State game), then slowly figured things and looked better starting in November against Maryland and Michigan.

 

The injury prone worries weren't there yet for Tua.  I can only recall the rumblings start with Tua when he first got hurt this past season, then the season ending injury put that narrative into motion.

 

But that 2018 comparison isn't relevant to the 2020 draft.  Tua had another season in college, and Haskins had one in the NFL.  The 2019 seasons have to be factored in. 

 

Anyways, for funsies...I think if Tua was inserted into the 2019 draft, based on 2018 season only.  My order would have gone:

1) Tua (and lock for 1st overall pick)

2) Murray

3) Haskins

4) Lock

5) Jones

 

Quote

McShay: "Well, I talked to a coach who was considering, who was in the running potentially to take this job. We had a long discussion about what I would do.

 

 

That doesn't sound right does it?  There was a long courtship period between Rivera, Snyder, Gibbs, etc.  As far as I've heard, there was no other coach who was being courted, let alone to the point he was being offered the job.

 

I feel like McShay is just making this up...