2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[The Consigliere]

35 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I love the time leading up to the draft, and the draft itself.

But I do not like the whole post-draft.

Because of all the knee-jerk reactions by both fans and "analysts".

Fans react like they suddenly know that it will determine playoff chances, etc.

Then "analysts" will grade them, which literally makes zero sense, before the players step on the field at all for the first time.

You can't grade a draft until about 3 years later.

A lot of the highly hyped players will bust.

And a lot of sleepers will become great.

Everything I'm saying is kind of obvious, and these are things that most people know, but the thing is that many people don't actually act as if it's true.

 

1. Me too.

 

2.I like it.

 

3.I don't mind any of that. Before the draft relative value is established, and when teams make their picks, you get to see whether or not they are getting values and using good process.

 

4.Well that's kind of nutty, only a handful of rookies really impact year 1, and its much more position related.

 

5.No, it does make sense. There are positional values in terms of where you select players (day 1, day 2 vs day 3) and there are values in prospects, themselves. If you don't follow positional values well, you're engaging in bad process, something that on an individual draft pick basis may not matter but over multiple years and multiple drafts has a HUGE impact on your roster and your cap and your flexibility. Secondly trading down rather than making a huge reach makes sense, but teams are always trying to blunt the negative feedback with, "You've got to have a dance partner to trade down," which is b.s. You can trade for less than fair comp but F.O.'s are afraid of bad press both if they don't get their guy if they move down and if they are perceived as not getting enough in the deal, so they draft scared, and refuse to trade down unless their board absolutely demands it. Draft day grades aren't really draft day grades (when done well), they're process grades. How did the team use the draft? Effectively or not so much?

 

6. No, you can, you just can't grade whether a player will be successful or not. You can grade whether a selection or trade was based on wise, intelligent design, or knee jerk stupidity. As much as I like Payne, that pick screamed of "panic drafting" after their DT target was taken right before slot. I like Payne well enough, but when you have an elite Pro Bowl/maybe HOF caliber Safety whose fallen 10 slots lower than he should've in round 1, it should be easy. The Payne pick underlined that the Redskins were bound and determined to go DT no matter what at slot. Bad process. Them landing Guice wasn't good process, it was massive luck that teams like New England, Seattle, Tampa and Detroit reached for RB's who weren't at his level (in fairness to Kerryon, I'm 100% believer now), if they don't reach, we're screwed, and remember, supposedly our F.O. liked Ronald Jones, again the analytics community smelled that rat a mile away and called that bust from day 1, all the way through. His lovers were all tape scouts, his haters were all analytics people (and a few tape guys who noticed his issues between the tackles and surprisingly, as a satellite option). 

 

6. True, but a bust can and will happen to any team at any time, and more often than a hit. I forgive an RGIII bust because everyone had him as a top 5 talent in that draft for the most part and just about everyone had him as the #2 QB. If he busts, it's just Force Majeure. As long as the pick is again, a product of good process, I'll forgive it every time. It's idiotic picks, massive, deluded, moronic reaches that I'm not forgiving, Darius Heyward-Bay type stupidity.

 

7. Of course, especially since the guys building the boards rely on scouts biased eyes rather than cold, hard analytical evidenced based projections. 

 

8. Not really. What your saying is held by many as truisms, but not by me. Of course part of that is because I look at draft grades differently than most people do. Plus people always just get butt hurt over bad draft grades, and I can understand us having that issue since we've been downright crap at drafting for the better part of 30+ years (though, oddly, much better these past two decades then circa 1988-1999-Champ and Jansen exempted). 

[Skin'emAlive]

I’m all for Tyree Jackson in then 5th. I could also see him landing in the 4th. But he can’t be the sole qb pick in this draft *unless* somehow Murray/Haskins/Lock/Grier are all drafted before we get to them. 

 

However, I dont think this team would roll into the season with 4 qbs on the roster ( assuming colt is cut ). 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Ripping flowers is candy from a baby easy. He's been just about the worst OT in the NFL since '15 that kept a starting job for the majority of that time period. Of course he ripped the signing. Flowers is a project and depth, treat him as such. 

 

 

Sure.  I got to run for a bit so don't have time to get into his details on that front.  But he got into the transition from tackle to guard and how it won't work for Flowers -- in short slow hands, slow feet, bad technique, clunky getting to the 2nd level, doesn't keep his eyes on the player in front of him.    Agree, its not rocket science but clearly the FO doesn't see it the same way.  They gave him decent money and forfeited a 6th round comp pick to sign him. 

[Poindexter]

43 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I’m all for Tyree Jackson in then 5th. I could also see him landing in the 4th. But he can’t be the sole qb pick in this draft *unless* somehow Murray/Haskins/Lock/Grier are all drafted before we get to them. 

 

However, I dont think this team would roll into the season with 4 qbs on the roster ( assuming colt is cut ). 

Jackson flat out stinks, he's highly too inaccurate and Grier is 24 years old.  I played college ball and graduate at 22, I couldn't imagine going on 24 years old and playing with 19 and 20 year old kids.  Just doesn't seem fair.   

 

Haskins is the guy who everyone is talking about dropping but I think he will go in the top 5....would be amazed if he makes it to us.

 

I too also assume and hope Colt will be cut as well.  I like Colt but saving 3.3 million sounds much better.  If we deal for Rosen  you better believe Colt is done and Woodrum will be our #3.  I coached Woodrum in high school and he looked really good in the preseason and is more than serviceable as a #3.

[Anselmheifer]

The FA thread is minimally buzzing about Landon Collins tweeting Jalen Ramsey to join the skins And Jalen Ramsey retweeting that tweet. They are guessing that Ramsey might be traded. 

How about a best case scenario of:

 

(1)Devin Bush

(2)Montez Sweat (Possible health related fall. Is no longer going to attend the NFL draft)

(3)WR

(3)OL

(5)OL

(5)OL

(6/7/7) BPA

 

(2020 1st) - Jalen Ramsey

(2020 2nd) - Josh Rosen

In one offseason we will have lost Preston Smith, Swearinger and Jamison Crowder and have gained Josh Rosen, Landon Collins, Reuben Foster, Devin Bush, Montez Sweat, and Jalen Ramsey and reinforced the OL and WR through the draft. 

Madden NFL. 

 

5 hours ago, Master Blaster said:

 

The Dallas duo is far more than just speed. I think both of them are 6’4”+ and 250lbs+

 

Two rare athletes for the position who also are bigger than most. 

 

Jaylon Smith 6'2" 223 pounds at the combine. Way more slight of build than Devin Bush. 

[mhd24]

With Frank Clark being on the market (and Seattle wanting a 1st per Shefter), what teams could be in play?  Only teams I could see are Indy and Tennessee since both need edge rushers.  WIth the early 2nd Indy has, I wonder if they bite on trading for Clark.

[Anselmheifer]

13 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

 

I'd just like to take a second to stump for my boy and say that Yosh Nijman Has a speed score of 115.4. That is all. 

[Skinsinparadise]

That's not me tweeting.  But looks like in those tweets Keim is shooting down my theory that Ferrell is their guy and hints they like Burns better.  If so i am glad since that's how I see it, too.  I don't dislike Ferrell but I'd rather have Burns or Sweat.  I figured Ferrell would be more up their alley based on his profile. 

 

On another note, I heard Hoffman in a podcast talk some about the draft.  He senses they won't go QB.   As for receivers they like Marquise Brown (he's been on that one for weeks) and their next favs are N'Keal Harry and AJ Brown.  I guess will see if he's correct soon enough. 

 

 

 

 

[actorguy1]

Possible Scenario: Consensus top 4 are gone. Also gone: White,Haskins, Lock, Taylor,Williamson, Sweat, Bush, Burns, Hockenson and Ferrell. That means only BPA is DT (Oliver, Wilkins perhaps) and Gary. Only trade back offers are negative value. What do you?

[DWinzit]

23 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

Possible Scenario: Consensus top 4 are gone. Also gone: White,Haskins, Lock, Taylor,Williamson, Sweat, Bush, Burns, Hockenson and Ferrell. That means only BPA is DT (Oliver, Wilkins perhaps) and Gary. Only trade back offers are negative value. What do you?

I would pass on those three begrudgingly due to all the roster needs I have been left with. 

I know ILB and edge are off the list because there isn't any more worth it near 15.

They have already said no to OL at 15 so I begrudgingly move past that too.

My next top needs are WR, DB and TE (I don't like any of the QB's

I take the top WR on my list which would be one of the Browns, Harry, Deebo who I think is the safest pick or Butler who I really like or the top DB possibly Murphy.

I thing to think about, If Hock is gone, therer are only a couple other TE's in the draft that can step in and block and catch early on, Irv Smith and Jace Sterrnberger along with maybe Fant, do I???

I don't want to reach on any one but so many of the players are close in ranks depending on the teams.

[JoggingGod]

23 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

Possible Scenario: Consensus top 4 are gone. Also gone: White,Haskins, Lock, Taylor,Williamson, Sweat, Bush, Burns, Hockenson and Ferrell. That means only BPA is DT (Oliver, Wilkins perhaps) and Gary. Only trade back offers are negative value. What do you?

Easy: Murphy or Bradbury.

[DWinzit]

3 hours ago, Poindexter said:

Jackson flat out stinks, he's highly too inaccurate and Grier is 24 years old.  I played college ball and graduate at 22, I couldn't imagine going on 24 years old and playing with 19 and 20 year old kids.  Just doesn't seem fair.   

 

I too also assume and hope Colt will be cut as well.  I like Colt but saving 3.3 million sounds much better.  If we deal for Rosen  you better believe Colt is done and Woodrum will be our #3.  I coached Woodrum in high school and he looked really good in the preseason and is more than serviceable as a #3.

I do not like Jackson either. Acquire Rosen and I would hope you are correct Case stays and Colt is gone. 

To me if they feel they need to grab a QB I would hope they wait until later and take Finley, Stidham, or Rypien. The problem is I think they would need to keep Colt and Case which I have a herd time seeing that. 

Would Woodrum be eligible for the practice squad?

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

That's not me tweeting.  But looks like in those tweets Keim is shooting down my theory that Ferrell is their guy and hints they like Burns better.  If so i am glad since that's how I see it, too.  I don't dislike Ferrell but I'd rather have Burns or Sweat.  I figured Ferrell would be more up their alley based on his profile. 

 

On another note, I heard Hoffman in a podcast talk some about the draft.  He senses they won't go QB.   As for receivers they like Marquise Brown (he's been on that one for weeks) and their next favs are N'Keal Harry and AJ Brown.  I guess will see if he's correct soon enough. 

I'm fine with Burns.  I really like Devin Bush and would like to see him play next to Rueben Foster to make the middle impenetrable.  I hope we at the very least take a 2nd tier QB if we can't trade for Rosen.

[volsmet]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Landon Collins, Reuben Foster, Devin Bush, Montez Sweat, and Jalen Ramsey 

 

2 hours ago, mhd24 said:

With Frank Clark being on the market (and Seattle wanting a 1st per Shefter), what teams could be in play?  Only teams I could see are Indy and Tennessee since both need edge rushers.  WIth the early 2nd Indy has, I wonder if they bite on trading for Clark.

 

KC & Oakland. 

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'd just like to take a second to stump for my boy and say that Yosh Nijman Has a speed score of 115.4. That is all. 

 

He’s in the thread!

 

 

 

[volsmet]

1 hour ago, actorguy1 said:

Possible Scenario: Consensus top 4 are gone. Also gone: White,Haskins, Lock, Taylor,Williamson, Sweat, Bush, Burns, Hockenson and Ferrell. That means only BPA is DT (Oliver, Wilkins perhaps) and Gary. Only trade back offers are negative value. What do you?

 

Take Oliver & get hammered. 

 

Though I don’t drink, getting Oliver would be cause for multiple benders, as getting Derwin last year would have been. 

17 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I'm fine with Burns.  I really like Devin Bush and would like to see him play next to Rueben Foster to make the middle impenetrable.  I hope we at the very least take a 2nd tier QB if we can't trade for Rosen.

 

Rosen & Bush is gaining steam in the ES community.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

@volsmet  How are you gonna do my boy D. Haskins like that? lol.

 

At least give the clips the gravitas and context they deserve. The dude played poorly, no doubt. However....

 

1. He came back down 13-0 and 26-14 and WON THE GAME ON THE ROAD.  

2. Was 22-39 56.4% 270 yds 3TD's 1nt, two huge 4th quarter drives in a win on the road against a big 10 rival.

3. It was his 5th game starting EVER. 

4. Showed tremendous poise, leadership, mental toughness, and character on a day that was not "his" for seeing and feeling it as a player. He stuck with it and led them back, not just anyone can do that.

6. He got nothing but better as season went on. His last 4 games against 3 ranked opponents he had 17TD's passing. 

7. He's got alot to learn and grow, but the ball jumps out of his hand and he's young smart and big. 

 

I like Lock too although I see Haskins as being a little safer in terms of what you are going to get, the Accuracy 70% to Locks 56.9% in their college careers.

Lock has the Moxie and prob more upside I'd say, but I think Haskins floor is higher if given some time to marinate. I'd be totally fine with either at 15 if Jay wants one.  I'd love Rosen for next years 2nd or this years if that's what it takes. Between the 3 I think I'd take Rosen, given the $ and that he got a yr of experience under him.  I just think that if it ever really clicks for him he could be really really good.

 

Or we could bypass the whole thing and roll with Case and fill as many other needs with fresh talent ... That's the safest move if you're Gruden if everyone is right and he get's canned if we dont make the playoffs in 19.   Should be interesting...

 

 

 

[volsmet]

4 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

@volsmet  How are you gonna do my boy D. Haskins like that? lol.

 

At least give the clips the gravitas and context it deserves. The dude play poorly, no doubt. However....

 

1. He came back down 13-0 and 26-14 and WON THE GAME ON THE ROAD.  

2. Was 22-39 56.4% 270 yds 3TD's 1nt, in a win on the road against a big 10 rival.

3. It was his 5th game starting EVER. 

4. Showed tremendous poise, leadership, mental toughness, and character on a day that was not "his" for seeing and feeling it as a player. He stuck with it and led them back, not just anyone can do that.

6. He got nothing but better as season went on. His last 4 games against 3 ranked opponents he had 17TD's passing. 

7. He's got alot to learn and grow, but the ball jumps out of his hand and he's young smart and big. 

 

I like Lock too although I see Haskins as being a little safer in terms of what you are going to get, the Accuracy 70% to Locks 56.9% in their college careers.

Lock has the Moxie and prob more upside I'd say, but I think Haskins floor is higher if given some time to marinate. I'd be totally fine with either at 15 if Jay wants one.  I'd love Rosen for next years 2nd or this years if that's what it takes. Between the 3 I think I'd take Rosen, given the $ and that he got a yr of experience under him.  I just think that if it ever really clicks for him he could be really really good.

 

Or we could bypass the whole thing and roll with Case and fill as many other needs with fresh talent ... That's the safest move if you're Gruden if everyone is right and he get's canned if we dont make the playoffs in 19.   Should be interesting...

 

 

 

 

I disagree my friend...some points we don’t see eye to eye on:

 

He didn’t come back, he was the reason they were down imo, he made zero big plays v PSU, it was grotesque, they win by 20 with Thorson or Rypien. Haskins dumping the ball off to incredible players is about them, not him. He was disgusting.

 

He did not get, nothing but better, he was as bad as any QB to ever live in game 10, & not all that much better the previous week. His film v MSU is atrocious. 

 

If you put Lock on OSU, they may win it all — put Haskins on Missouri, they don’t get to a bowl.

 

A fine test for @The Consigliere ... he has to believe in Haskins, and he must dismiss all I see that’s troubling. The analytics prop up Grier & Haskins, we will see if these old eyes can keep pace with the geniuses.

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Nice little article on Brian Burns, my only issue with him how he'll do vs. the run in the NFL. Will he be strong enough to set the edge. But we haven't really had a speed rusher in what seems like ever, Chris Clemons before blossoming? Very interesting prospect and realistic he could be there at 15 and a Skin.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/brian-burns-is-edge1 

 

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

 

He didn’t come back, he was the reason they were down imo, he made zero big plays v PSU, it was grotesque, they win by 20 with Thorson or Rypien. Haskins dumping the ball off to incredible players is about them, not him. He was disgusting.

 

I'm not defending he had a bad game, even as you say disgusting, what I am defending is that he still led the team, threw the passes, ugly short ones for the Win on the Road. No amount of hyperbole will change that. Leading the team on two 4th quarter drives where a qb's money is made for a win on the road. Yes that really happened as ugly as it was. 

 

He did not get, nothing but better, he was as bad as any QB to ever live in game 10, & not all that much better the previous week. His film v MSU is atrocious. 

Yes my mistake he had other games he didn't play great. Doesn't mean he didn't grow and learn from them. The overall point was he got better from game 1 to game 14. He showed progression and finished the season strong.

 

 If you put Lock on OSU, they may win it all — put Haskins on Missouri, they don’t get to a bowl.

This is laughable, Stop it. Haskins lost 1 game.  The Mighty Lock took Mizzou to a 8-5 record, 7-6, 4-8, and 5-7..over his 4 yrs. Oh and missed a bowl his first 2 years. And I like a lot about Lock, but relax a bit.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

A newly released Deep Dive into all the QB's from some guy named  Thor Nystrom check it out, a different perspective.

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/evaluations/nfl-draft-qb-deep-dive

[skinny21]

3 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

Possible Scenario: Consensus top 4 are gone. Also gone: White,Haskins, Lock, Taylor,Williamson, Sweat, Bush, Burns, Hockenson and Ferrell. That means only BPA is DT (Oliver, Wilkins perhaps) and Gary. Only trade back offers are negative value. What do you?

Assuming Williamson means Q. Williams, I’d happily take Jonah Williams.  

Murphy would be a nice pick as well, IMO.  

[wilco_holland]

2 hours ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

Nice little article on Brian Burns, my only issue with him how he'll do vs. the run in the NFL. Will he be strong enough to set the edge. But we haven't really had a speed rusher in what seems like ever, Chris Clemons before blossoming? Very interesting prospect and realistic he could be there at 15 and a Skin.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/brian-burns-is-edge1 

 

 

 

It's with our current roster build not an issue. Ryan Anderson will split time with Burns. So they both can play to there strengths and develop slowly. We do this all the time with our D lineman. We even did it with Junior G. 

[The Consigliere]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sure.  I got to run for a bit so don't have time to get into his details on that front.  But he got into the transition from tackle to guard and how it won't work for Flowers -- in short slow hands, slow feet, bad technique, clunky getting to the 2nd level, doesn't keep his eyes on the player in front of him.    Agree, its not rocket science but clearly the FO doesn't see it the same way.  They gave him decent money and forfeited a 6th round comp pick to sign him. 

 

Why did I have to read that right before I'm about to sleep? Banging my head against the wall isn't good for a healthy nights sleep. Superb point, I didn't realize that. That makes it completely asinine. Full Stop. 

 

 

[goskins10]

Doesn't really have anythig to do with thie draft, but an interesting look at what the writer sees as the best draft steals by each teams. Not sure I agree with them all but it at least looks like a thoughtful exercise.

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-greatest-draft-steal-for-every-single-nfl-team/ss-BBW5b4S?ocid=ientp#image=33

 

Its one of those scroll through things so here is what they have for the Redskins if you don't want to scroll through the entire thing:

 

Washington Redskins: RB Larry Brown

A blocking back taken in the eighth round of the 1969 draft out of Kansas State, Brown frustrated then-Washington head coach Vince Lombardi because he wasn't aggressive enough to the line of scrimmage. But when Lombardi discovered that Brown was hard of hearing and set him up with a hearing aid that allowed him to hear the cadences, that was all the rookie needed. He led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,125 in 1970 and amassed 5,875 rushing yards and 35 rushing touchdowns on 1,530 carries over eight seasons.

 

 

[Est.1974]

The whole Montez Sweat situation could be interesting. Clearly doesn't like the idea of being stuck at the draft in the event he suffers a significant slide. I guess we don't truly know the extent of the condition but it's lookin like he could be had on day 2 at this rate.