hail2skins Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Larry said: WTF makes people think Trump is better for the economy? I blame the media in general, not just Fox News, for perpetuating the Trump economy as "booming." What measurand is used to define a booming economy? GDP annual growth rates under Trump still haven't hit 3 percent, something Obama was criticized about, although they'll probably hit that in 2021 due to the disaster the first half of this year is going to be. Unemployment before the pandemic was solid, but had been trending in that direction under Obama. Trump can probably get credit for rising wages, although again this is something that was trending in the right direction somewhat under Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostofSparta Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 3 hours ago, goskins10 said: And now not a single word about how the debt is skyrocketing ($20T to almost $26T) as is deficit spending ($665B to well over $1T) . Debts and Deficits will suddenly matter again on November 4th. If Trump loses, it will be all about how Biden screwed the economy and the future with all this spending. If Trump wins, it will be all about how all the spending is his fault, that the Republicans will get serious about fiscal restraint again but can't until Trump is gone in 2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 4 hours ago, hail2skins said: I blame the media in general, not just Fox News, for perpetuating the Trump economy as "booming." What measurand is used to define a booming economy? GDP annual growth rates under Trump still haven't hit 3 percent, something Obama was criticized about, although they'll probably hit that in 2021 due to the disaster the first half of this year is going to be. Unemployment before the pandemic was solid, but had been trending in that direction under Obama. Trump can probably get credit for rising wages, although again this is something that was trending in the right direction somewhat under Obama. So, I was going to go back and edit my "ignorance" post to include "and the media". I spent some time looking for something I saw where someone posted a graph of jobs created by month, with the dates missing. The idea being people could look at it and try to figure out at what point Trump had come along to "save the economy". (couldn't find it right now) The media has both allowed the narrative that the economy was in bad shape at the end of Obama's term and that it's been great under Trump. It's also allowed the stock market to be a measure of how the economy is doing, while basically ignoring wage growth. It also allowed nonsense like the tea party to dominate the news with deficit whining, while completely ignoring Trump literally tripling the deficit (even before this year). Part of this is Democratic messaging, but a lot of it just a media that sucks and allows one side to work them to a ridiculous extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 These polls just mean something outrageous is being planned by Trump's campaign for the fall. We all know it's coming. It will probably be total nonsense and something that anyone with an ounce of commons sense should laugh off, but too many people won't and just like that the polls will tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: These polls just mean something outrageous is being planned by Trump's campaign for the fall. We all know it's coming. It will probably be total nonsense and something that anyone with an ounce of commons sense should laugh off, but too many people won't and just like that the polls will tighten up. I think his fall surprise will be the release of a rushed vaccine that will be distributed in Sept/Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: These polls just mean something outrageous is being planned by Trump's campaign for the fall. We all know it's coming. It will probably be total nonsense and something that anyone with an ounce of commons sense should laugh off, but too many people won't and just like that the polls will tighten up. Won't work as well, on a count of all the stuff levied at Trump, that he miraculously shrugged off. The Hunter Biden stuff didn't stick. Tara Reade didn't stick. "Sleepy Joe" isnt sticking. Everyone knows the game now. The only way he survives is if he enacts Order 66. 2 minutes ago, spjunkies said: I think his fall surprise will be the release of a rushed vaccine that will be distributed in Sept/Oct. Won't work either, because by then, the stacks of dead bodies will be unconscionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 If 40% of voters still support the Trump thats basically 1 out of every 4 Americans. That's unacceptable imo. That's why I disagree with sleepy Joe. Way more than 15% of people are horrible. I'm thinking at least 33.3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, clietas said: If 40% of voters still support the Trump thats basically 1 out of every 4 Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, clietas said: That's why I disagree with sleepy Joe. Way more than 15% of people are horrible. I'm thinking at least 33.3%. actually you're very close, scientifically speaking--it's approx. 30% pass and 70% fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 If you assume 60% of the people vote and 40% of them votes Trump, then isn't clietas pretty close with 25%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, bearrock said: If you assume 60% of the people vote and 40% of them votes Trump, then isn't clietas pretty close with 25%? Listen buddy... I don't appreciate you busting up a perfectly good meme (even if I used it differently than it was originally intended) with a more nuanced perspective I hadn't considered. *Edit* Although I don't know that the CNN poll is for likely voters, and I'm not sure that it matters anyway unless we assume that voters and non-voters have wildly different views, so I take back my take back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fresh8686 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 32 minutes ago, bearrock said: If you assume 60% of the people vote and 40% of them votes Trump, then isn't clietas pretty close with 25%? Hey this guy gets it. The rest of y'all go to private schools or something? Percentages 🤓 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 We'll see. After 2016 I just don't buy polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: We'll see. After 2016 I just don't buy polls. National polls before the election averaged to Hillary +2. There was a lot of concern and talk of how that narrow of a national margin can easily lead to an electoral college loss. Hillary ended up +2 but lost the EC. Polls weren’t wrong in 2016. People don’t understand statistics and are bad at data interpretation. That’s not a polling problem. It’s a people problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 2 hours ago, NoCalMike said: These polls just mean something outrageous is being planned by Trump's campaign for the fall. We all know it's coming. It will probably be total nonsense and something that anyone with an ounce of commons sense should laugh off, but too many people won't and just like that the polls will tighten up. It will be a host of October surprises; it won't just be one thing. I am going for one of the surprises to be, some sort of military conflict with China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, No Excuses said: National polls before the election averaged to Hillary +2. There was a lot of concern and talk of how that narrow of a national margin can easily lead to an electoral college loss. Hillary ended up +2 but lost the EC. Polls weren’t wrong in 2016. People don’t understand statistics and are bad at data interpretation. That’s not a polling problem. It’s a people problem. I'm guilty of being better at data interpretation then understanding statistics. My biggest problem with statistics is getting it to say what folks want it to say and being able to see through that to interpret properly. The unemployment number being linked to number of folks actively looking for work is a perfect example of this, it's a number that's bragged about or weaponized regularly, but still not the full picture. In fact, I don't remember the government admitted they were wrong that it didn't go down but went up instead like it did last week. So yea, polling did say Hillary would win popular vote and she did. So it does seem like the popular vote for individual battleground states Is more important then national polling, at least that makes sense to me if that's the case of keeping polling in perspective. Trumps approval rating is probably in context of how many folks don't like him but tolerate him as long as they get what they want, it should be even lower then that even talking to folks I know will still vote for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedskinsFan44 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: It will be a host of October surprises; it won't just be one thing. I am going for one of the surprises to be, some sort of military conflict with China. Honestly I just don't see many people rallying around Trump if he gets us in a war. He had a chance to unite the nation around the struggle with Covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Re: polls sports books have odds either at or close to even from what I’ve see 🤷♂️ ive learned the lesson of not thinking the sports books have lost their minds and the public is right too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 I think the race will tighten. If Trump wins, it will be a close win and he will loses the popular vote again. I don't see a Biden landslide if he wins. If he wins, it's likely anywhere from Trump -Clinton in 2016 or Obama-romney in 2012. I could see Biden winning the EC with a different state combo, than people expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: I think the race will tighten. If Trump wins, it will be a close win and he will loses the popular vote again. I don't see a Biden landslide if he wins. If he wins, it's likely anywhere from Trump -Clinton in 2016 or Obama-romney in 2012. I could see Biden winning the EC with a different state combo, than people expect. We are in "so what if Biden wins every single vote in California" territory right now. So many of them are winner take all its still what states do you win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.