The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[clskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Not a single QB you listed ahead of Cousins was top 5/elite in their first 2 seasons as starter, not even Brady. Some of the QBs you listed it could be argued Cousins is better, but that's another debate.

 

You pay a 10-15 QB, who is much close to 10 than 15, as a top 5 QB when he has 2 years as a starter only and overall good results, when he is the best QB available, when you believe he will continue to improve and could become top 5, and when for 2 seasons he has carried your team to winning records, brought a division title, and done so with bottom tier defense and run game/carried the rest of the team.

 

Come on Elkabong. You consistently do this "first two years thing". Cousins played plenty his first three years. And was awful. He has obviously progressed from there and is better. But his red zone numbers and his propensity to make bone headed mistakes still exists after FIVE years in the league. It appears it is most likely a moot point as a long term deal is near. But Cousins is not a second year player.

 

[TSO]

29 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

I am very encouraged by McCartney's statement that he is meeting with the Skin's cap guy this coming week, I forget his name.  I optimistically infer from McCartney publicly mentioning this pending meeting is that McCartney and Allen have agreed to the amount, length and guarantee, all the big questions.  Now McCartney and Allen's subordinate finishing the short strokes, working out the timing of the payments in a cap friendly way as possible.

 

McCartney had an interview this morning with NFL Network's Morning show and I came away from it feeling very good. He and Eric met yesterday according to him. 

 

The interviewer kept asking him about the bad feelings that should exist and if they're there. McCartney unequivocally shot it down each time. 

 

First time he said how unique the situation was. How the team had Kirk the first three years but he didn't play much and then last year in his rookie contract he went off last ten games, so difficult situation and the tag made sense. 

 

Second time he was asked again about if there's animosity he said no, he and Eric Schaffer working very hard together and the last thing he'd want to do is make it a situation where Kirk or the team has animosity and it's a bad environment for him. 

 

So very positive vibes all around regarding the contract. 

[skins island connection]

I just wish this would be over already.

Ahhh, the big dance-off, both sides jousting for position, discussions or non-discussions, the drama of it all, the finality of 'will he be here' or not dangles over the minds of fans.

Then there's the speculations and predictions coming from all sides, pro and con.

 

I'm taking the approach of " can Cousins take the Redskins to the promised land without an improved running game and an improved defense".  I don't think so.

Even if he does correct the red zone issues, without the rest of the team gaining improvement, it will most likely be a 1-n-done tenure at best.

 

I'd like to think that Cousins will be taking the rest of the team into consideration, not just the bank accounts of future QBs, and frankly I don't see a difference in a million or 2 per year if he does get this long term contract; he, his kids, and grandkids will be set for life. Its left me somewhat torn, understanding both sides, but ultimately it boils down to Superbowl championships, and whether or not his contract will negatively affect the team as a whole.

 

One thing I really do not care for is Bruce Allen, reputation or not. I have a bad vibe about this guy, always have. Power and position does things to a man, and I have a feeling his meddling will end up costing the team one way or another. His father was a great motivator, could get into the heads of players, and Bruce inherited this trait. Its how he uses it that has me worried. Regardless of Cousins' deal coming to fruition, I'm pretty sure there will be some inner turmoil in the front office, and it will hurt this team. I hope I'm wrong but in situations like this I'm mostly right.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Come on Elkabong. You consistently do this "first two years thing". Cousins played plenty his first three years. And was awful. He has obviously progressed from there and is better. But his red zone numbers and his propensity to make bone headed mistakes still exists after FIVE years in the league. It appears it is most likely a moot point as a long term deal is near. But Cousins is not a second year player.

 

 

Yeah the "He's essentially just a 2nd year player" stuff is ridiculous. Prior to being the full time starter in 2015 Kirk started in 9 games and played in another 5. He threw 407 passes in NFL games before the 2015 season started. He isn't a 2nd year player. If people want to get into semantics and say "well...he wasn't a full time starter until 2015", then go for it. But that doesn't change the fact that he played quite a bit before then. 

 

If people want to compare to Rodgers, he didn't start a single game before 2008 and in the games he played in he threw a grand total of 59 passes in the 3 years prior to becoming the full time starter in 08. The two aren't remotely similar. Kirk has far more experience at this point in his career than Rodgers did when he became the starter.

[NoCalMike]

If people want to make the "essentially a 2nd year starter" argument then fine, ok, well how many other "essentially 2nd year starters" had as many NFL snaps as Cousins did before they became "essentially the starter"  

[Peregrine]

Im not sure its wise in the NFL to pay out ANY contracts to players without examining not just their past performance, but future potential.  Thats why Cousins is worth a bigger contract than Tony Romo.  Thats why we are probably hesitant to pay Desean Jackson.  We can pretend everything is in a neat statistical vacuum, but as far as contracts go, the fact Cousins is still young and developing does play a part.  Now you always take a risk with that, but if you have a player who looks like he will progress, you give him a bigger contract than the exact same guy who looks like he will regress.

 

Jackson may only have a couple more years in him as age catches up to him and effects both his speed and durability, and that will effect contract offers he receives.  Likewise, it should be the same in the other direction.  A younger QB with the same performance the last 2 years should get a bigger contract offer than a 35 year old QB.

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

And none of the QBs I listed were compensated as top 5/elite after 2 years of starting.  

 

Its a unique situation because cousins sat for 3 years, and played his first year as a starter on the final year of his rookie contract.  And performed very well.  

 

Thats extremely unique.

 

as I said, I can see both sides.  One says "it's market, go pay him" the other says "but he's just not worth a top 5 contract even if he's best available."

 

id pay him.  But I see both sides.

 

 

 

This is the distinction one has to realize. When the other QB's got their money the cost of living or market value was not that high. It does suck that we (The Redskins) have to pay Kirk more if they want him here. Let's assume Kirk was selected 1st round and won a divisional title and then after 4 years he would be locked up for 16-18 mil a year on a 5 year contract. But this is not the case. The FO now has to adjust to the current $ value even if they think Kirk might be worth less. Sure, last year they should have locked him up but they didn't and so they will need to pay for not having the ability to look into the future. I don't hold that against them as no one can tell the future. The future is now and the FO has to deal with what is happening today. I just want the FO to make the right decision for the franchise that will benefit the future of the organization and keep the fans happy. After all, it is the fans that pay to see these players on the field to produce at a high level. We all want to have competent team on the field for years to come. 

[Hail2theSkins24]

Prediction: This weekend Kirk signs 5 year $118 mil with $65 mil guaranteed. 

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Hail2theSkins24 said:

Prediction: This weekend Kirk signs 5 year $118 mil with $65 mil guaranteed. 

My guess:  This weekend, 5 years $120 mill with $75 mil guaranteed. 

[Tsailand]

4 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Cousins played plenty his first three years. And was awful.

 

1st year: Started one game, looked good. Came in after RG3 injuries in three other games, with mixed results.

2nd year: Started the final three games for a coach that was about to be fired, with a team that had given up.  Of course he sucked.

3rd year: Came in when RG3 got hurt, started five additional games. 1700 yards 10 TDs 9 ints in exactly 1/3rd of a season.

 

This is very ****ing far from being awful.

 

 

 

Prediction: Kirk won't sign for anything less than 24.6M/year.  That's 123M in five years.

[petedaddy]

17 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

 

1st year: Started one game, looked good. Came in after RG3 injuries in three other games, with mixed results.

2nd year: Started the final three games for a coach that was about to be fired, with a team that had given up.  Of course he sucked.

3rd year: Came in when RG3 got hurt, started five additional games. 1700 yards 10 TDs 9 ints in exactly 1/3rd of a season.

 

This is very ****ing far from being awful.

 

 

 

Prediction: Kirk won't sign for anything less than 24.6M/year.  That's 123M in five years.

 

Thank you for reminding people of this

 

5 years 125 million, 80 guaranteed, I'll write it tonight if Kirk will sign it tomorrow

[FrFan]

According to the Wapo they are far apart, he seems to seek a contract above $24 mil/year

[markmills67]

1 hour ago, Hail2theSkins24 said:

Prediction: This weekend Kirk signs 5 year $118 mil with $65 mil guaranteed. 

I will go for 5 years $130m with $75m guaranteed.

 

HTTR 

[Destino]

6 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Come on Elkabong. You consistently do this "first two years thing". Cousins played plenty his first three years. And was awful. He has obviously progressed from there and is better. But his red zone numbers and his propensity to make bone headed mistakes still exists after FIVE years in the league. It appears it is most likely a moot point as a long term deal is near. But Cousins is not a second year player.

 

His propensity to shatter passing records and finish in the top 10 of QBs statistically continues as well.  You write as if the last two season were average or bad, instead of what they actually were.  Damn good.  If this team had a defense half as good as its passing offense we'd be talking about what we need to add to make a run.  Instead we're complaining that the best QB this team has seen in decades isn't the best at everything.   

 

 

[PartyPosse]

2 hours ago, Tsailand said:

3rd year: Came in when RG3 got hurt, started five additional games. 1700 yards 10 TDs 9 ints in exactly 1/3rd of a season.

 

This is very ****ing far from being awful.

Take away the first 2 games and his numbers were bad. You dont get benched for Colt by being mediocre or better.

[mistertim]

32 minutes ago, Destino said:

His propensity to shatter passing records and finish in the top 10 of QBs statistically continues as well.  You write as if the last two season were average or bad, instead of what they actually were.  Damn good.  If this team had a defense half as good as its passing offense we'd be talking about what we need to add to make a run.  Instead we're complaining that the best QB this team has seen in decades isn't the best at everything.   

 

 

 

And if the offense wasn't so awful in the red zone they would have easily made a run too considering how many close games we lost. Yeah the defense was poor in general but they were middle of the pack in the league as far as points allowed per game so it isn't like Kirk had to throw for 450 yards and 5 TDs just to give us a chance every game. Not saying the defense wasn't an issue, but the red zone offense was a big issue as well. Kirk threw for a ton of yards but his TDs for the amount of yards he threw for was bad. IIRC we were #2 in the NFL in pass yards per game but #12 in points per game. That's a pretty glaring discrepancy...for example the other top teams in passing yards were also top 5 in scoring NO was #1 in passing yards and #2 in points per game, Atlanta was #2 in passing yards and #1 in points per game, NE was #4 in passing yards and #3 in points per game. Hopefully they'll figure out what the issues there were. 

[markmills67]

A Question for you Mr TK, would you put money on a LTD for Cousins before Free Agency?.

 

HTTR 

[Est.1974]

Think he'll take 5/120 as long as half is gtd. first 2 years plus a 10 mil roster bonus in year 3, all 3 fully gtd on signing at a value of 60mil. Keeps him here 3 year minimum.

 

Pissing into the wind with anything less.

 

gruden also gets an extension to line the two tenures up.

[Hail2theSkins24]

6 hours ago, Tsailand said:

 

1st year: Started one game, looked good. Came in after RG3 injuries in three other games, with mixed results.

2nd year: Started the final three games for a coach that was about to be fired, with a team that had given up.  Of course he sucked.

3rd year: Came in when RG3 got hurt, started five additional games. 1700 yards 10 TDs 9 ints in exactly 1/3rd of a season.

 

This is very ****ing far from being awful.

 

 

 

Prediction: Kirk won't sign for anything less than 24.6M/year.  That's 123M in five years.

 

Simply not true. Guaranteed money, and there will be a lot of it (60-80 mill) is long term security. Football is a violent sport where things can change in a hurry. 

[skinsmarydu]

6 hours ago, petedaddy said:

 

Thank you for reminding people of this

 

5 years 125 million, 80 guaranteed, I'll write it tonight if Kirk will sign it tomorrow

Me too. 

And he fosters sick and homeless dogs.  Pay the man.

[MassSkinsFan]

12 hours ago, mistertim said:

No. You know perfectly well what I meant as far as NFL personnel commenting on players anonymously. 

 

I wasn't taking the piss - just riffing on Stephen A's recent hijinks. Hope you didn't think I was having a go at your post. It was a good post.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, Tsailand said:

 

3rd year: Came in when RG3 got hurt, started five additional games. 1700 yards 10 TDs 9 ints in exactly 1/3rd of a season.

 

This is very ****ing far from being awful.

 

 

Yeah that year:  62% completion rate, averaged 285 yards a game, 86 QB rating -- far from awful.   Not that it matters what he did IMO before he was a starter but anyone that rewrites that history like he was a train wreck, then.  Far from it.    For comparison, Eli Manning who actually had the benefit of start his full season in year #3:  58% completion rate, 202 yards per game, 77 QB rating.

[Wildbunny]

4 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Take away the first 2 games and his numbers were bad. You dont get benched for Colt by being mediocre or better.

Take away the last three and his numbers are quite good.

[Taylor703]

5 hours ago, Destino said:

His propensity to shatter passing records and finish in the top 10 of QBs statistically continues as well.  You write as if the last two season were average or bad, instead of what they actually were.  Damn good.  If this team had a defense half as good as its passing offense we'd be talking about what we need to add to make a run.  Instead we're complaining that the best QB this team has seen in decades isn't the best at everything.   

 

 

 

To be fair, he shattered passing records for a team that horribly mediocre passing records. He's not a bad player, I actually think he's a good player but he's ridiculously overrated by this fanbase due to how awful we've been at the position. I am at a point though where just pay the guy and let's get this done with. I'm so tired of hearing about it. And if you have no intentions of paying him, deal him away. 

[MassSkinsFan]

11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Come on Elkabong. You consistently do this "first two years thing". Cousins played plenty his first three years. And was awful. He has obviously progressed from there and is better. But his red zone numbers and his propensity to make bone headed mistakes still exists after FIVE years in the league. It appears it is most likely a moot point as a long term deal is near. But Cousins is not a second year player.

 

 

10 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah the "He's essentially just a 2nd year player" stuff is ridiculous. Prior to being the full time starter in 2015 Kirk started in 9 games and played in another 5. He threw 407 passes in NFL games before the 2015 season started. He isn't a 2nd year player. If people want to get into semantics and say "well...he wasn't a full time starter until 2015", then go for it. But that doesn't change the fact that he played quite a bit before then. 

 

If people want to compare to Rodgers, he didn't start a single game before 2008 and in the games he played in he threw a grand total of 59 passes in the 3 years prior to becoming the full time starter in 08. The two aren't remotely similar. Kirk has far more experience at this point in his career than Rodgers did when he became the starter.

 

Let's look at stats. I compared Cousins and Rodgers, and threw in Garoppolo since we can all agree he hasn't been a starter in his first three years:

 

Rodgers 2005-2007: 7 games

Cousins 2012-2014: 14 games

Rodgers 2008-2009: 32 games

Cousins 2015-2016: 32 games

Garoppolo 2014-2016: 17 games

 

Since becoming full-time starters (by that I mean starter all season), here are their relative stats:

 

Rodgers 691/1077 complete, 0.391 completion pctg, 8472 yards (264.8 yds/game, 58 TDs (5.4 TD%), 20 Ints (1.9 INT%) 98.5 passer rating

Cousins  785/1149 complete, 0.406 completion pctg, 9083 yards (283.8 yds/game, 54 TDs (4.7 TD%), 23 Ints (2.0 INT%), 99.4 passer rating

 

Before becoming starters:

 

Rodgers 35/59 complete, 0.372 completion pctg, 329 yards (47.0 yds/game, 1 TD (1.7 TD%), 1 Int (1.7 INT%) 61.1 passer rating

Cousins  240/407 complete, 0.371 completion pctg, 3030 yards (216.4 yds/game, 18 TDs (4.4 TD%), 19 Ints (4.7 INT%), 79.7 passer rating

Garoppolo 63/94 complete, 0.401 completion pctg, 690 yards (40.6 yds/game, 5 TDs (5.3 TD%), 0 Ints (0 INT%), 106.2 passer rating

 

Attempts per game:

 

Rodgers 2005-2007: 36

Cousins 2012-2014: 29

Rodgers 2008-2009: 34

Cousins 2015-2016: 8

Garoppolo 2014-2016: 6

 

So, we aren't comparing apples to apples. Cousins has twice as much game experience as Rodgers did after their first three seasons (but interestingly 3 fewer games than Jimmy G), and he had nearly as much game time in each of those as he did after becoming a starter, based on attempts/game.

 

Let's handicap this: Cousins was not a starter from day 1, and he had spot duty playing full games here and there in his first three seasons. Let's count the three semi-starting seasons as one complete starting season, since he played 14 games and had 2/3 the rate of pass attempts he did in the last 2 years. If we take his career stats and compare them to Rodgers' first three years as starter here is what we get:

 

Rodgers 1003/1552 complete, 0.393 completion pctg, 12394 yards (263.7 yds/game, 86 TDs (5.5 TD%), 31 Ints (2.0 INT%) 99.4 passer rating

Cousins  1025/1556 complete, 0.397 completion pctg, 12113 yards (263.3 yds/game, 72 TDs (4.6 TD%), 42 Ints (2.7 INT%), 93.6 passer rating

 

To conclude I'd say calling Captain Kirk a guy who's only started 2 years is inaccurate. However, you can't say he's been a full-time starter for his 5 seasons in the NFL either. If you take the 14 games he played in his first 3 years and count them as one starting season, and view his career stats as the equivalent of 3 starting seasons, then compare those stats to the first 3 starting seasons for Rodgers, they are pretty similar. To me that means people who are saying he is not a top-tier guy are possibly right, but probably wrong. His two biggest variances from AR's stats are TDs and INTs. If you go look at Cousins' career stats you'll see his first 3 years were an INT nightmare. Since then his INT stats are comparable to Rodgers'. That tells me he fixed that problem. Now he just needs to fix the TD issue (which frankly isn't a huge problem) and he'll be the next Aaron Rodgers. Of course, that still won't be good enough for some on ES.

 

HTTR!